沉没成本效应的产生根源与影响因素

沉没成本效应是指决策者的决策行为因受沉没成本影响而产生的一种非理性决策现象。针对这一决策偏差的产生根源,研究者从认知、动机和神经三个角度提出了解释。沉没成本效应的影响因素包括沉没成本特性、情境因素、个体差异和文化差异等。基于先前研究存在的问题和不足,沉没成本效应的未来研究应着眼于改进研究方法,探究产生根源,关注行为沉没成本和加强应用研究。     

证券交易中处置效应的实验研究

该项研究通过控制五只股票、每只股票有18期价格波动的实验来研究中国投资者的投资行为特征。结果发现,被试并没有表现出Bayesian最优行为,处置效应却很明显;被试之间在性别、专业、受教育程度与入市时间上的差异不构成处置效应程度上的差异。但入市资金量在5％的水平上对处置效应程度有显著作用。尽管实验中还发现均值反转信念发生作用的证据,但相对于处置效应而言,解释力度要弱。     

The Influence of Compensation Method and Disclosure Level on Information Search Strategy and Escalation of Commitment

In this study we examined the extent to which compensation method and public disclosure influenced information search strategy and escalation of commitment. A laboratory experiment involving 182 student subjects employed a 3 (compensation: no-pay, salary, and contingent) by 2 (disclosure level: public and private) fully randomized, crossed design. Results show that in light of negative feedback concerning performance results of an investment portfolio, subjects whose initial allocation decisions were announced publicly reduced their search for prospective information, increased the search for retrospective information, and exhibited greater escalation of commitment than subjects who did not announce their initial investment strategy. The search for retrospective information and escalation of commitment was monotonically higher across the no-pay, salary, and contingent pay conditions respectively, while the search for prospective information decreased correspondingly. This study provides evidence that escalation of commitment is positively related to the search for retrospective information and negatively related to the search for prospective information. The results obtained from this experiment complement and extend prior work in the areas of accountability, cognitive dissonance and escalation of commitment. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trading performance,disposition effect,overconfidence, representativeness bias,and experience of emerging market investors

Using brokerage account data from China, we study investment decision making in an emerging market. We find that Chinese investors make poor trading decisions: the stocks they purchase underperform those they sell. We also find that Chinese investors suffer from three behavioral biases: (i) they tend to sell stocks that have appreciated in price, but not those that have depreciated in price, consistent with a disposition effect, acknowledging gains but not losses; (ii) they seem overconfident; and (iii) they appear to believe that past returns are indicative of future returns (a representativeness bias). In comparisons to prior findings, Chinese investors seem more overconfident than U.S. investors (i.e., the Chinese hold fewer stocks, yet trade very often) and their disposition effect appears stronger. Finally, we categorize Chinese investors based on proxy measures of experience and find that “experienced” investors are not always less prone to behavioral biases than are “inexperienced” ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Power Politics and the Balance of Risk: Hypotheses on Great Power Intervention in the Periphery

Great powers frequently initiate risky diplomatic and military interventions in the periphery—regions that do not directly threaten the security of a great power's homeland. Such risky interventions are driven by leaders' aversion to losses in their state's relative power, international status, or prestige. These leaders often persist in such courses of action even when they incur mounting political, economic, and military costs. More surprisingly, they undertake risky strategies toward other great powers in an effort to continue these failing interventions. Hypotheses concerning such interventions are derived from the prospect theory and defensive realist literatures.     

框架效应及其认知机制的研究进展

框架效应违背了不变性原则,是描述性决策理论违背规范性理论的经典异像。以亚洲疾病问题为代表的经典框架效应又称作风险选择框架效应,此外还包括特征框架效应等不同类别。框架效应受损益值类型和大小等社会线索影响。除展望理论可以解释其认知机制外,模糊痕迹理论和概率心理模型等也对此加以解释。框架效应的脑机制在大脑右半球和杏仁核等区域。文章最后对全文做了总结及展望。     

The Effect of Goal Difficulty on Escalation of Commitment

Escalation of commitment to a failing course of action is a problem in behavioral decision making that occurs across a wide range of social contexts. In this research, we show that examining escalation of commitment from a goal setting theory perspective provides fresh insights into how goal difficulty influences escalation of commitment. Specifically, through a series of two experiments, we found a curvilinear relationship between goal difficulty and post‐feedback goal commitment, which was mediated by valence and expectancy associated with goal attainment. In turn, it is commitment to goals that leads individuals to continue a previous course of action despite negative feedback. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

记忆提取促进学习:实验证据与机制解释

人类学习的主流观点认为学习主要发生在编码阶段,记忆提取本身并不产生和促进学习。但最近多项研究对此提出了质疑,他们发现,在学习过程中,记忆提取更能促进学习内容的长时保持。本文首先对记忆提取促进学习的实验证据做简要梳理;之后重点介绍关于记忆提取促进学习的多种解释机制,主要包括:侧重于从理论机制层面解释的记忆失用新理论,强调内在精细机制的精细提取假设,以及解释保持间隔(长、短)与学习方式(重复学习、学习-测试)交互作用的基于分布的二分模型;文章最后分析了当前研究记忆提取作用实验存在的一些问题,提出了今后的研究方向,强调应从多角度揭示记忆提取练习促进学习的机制。     

Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment

To study whether optimism-pessimism modifies escalation of commitment, 52 undergraduates were told that they had made an unsuccessful investment, then they chose to continue or discontinue this investment. Optimism about future returns was induced in one group by varying the probability of a successful outcome from an initial low to medium, pessimism was induced in another group by varying this probability from an initial high to medium. Supporting the assumption of the manipulation, the results showed that optimistic participants preferred to continue investments whereas pessimistic participants preferred not to. As predicted, when the sunk cost increased, optimism led to escalation of commitment, whereas pessimism led to de-escalation of commitment. These effects were strengthened when probability of a successful outcome was ambiguous.     

大学生时间管理倾向对其社会适应能力的影响

该研究对180名大学生的时间管理倾向及其社会适应能力的关系进行探讨。结果发现,被试的时间管理倾向及其3个维度（时间价值感、时间监控观、时间效能感）,以及社会适应能力在性别、学科等因素上没有显著差异;时间管理倾向高分组和低分组被试在社会适应能力上有极其显著的差异。将社会适应能力对时间管理倾向3个维度进行逐步回归分析,结果表明,时间效能感对社会适应能力有好的预见性。因此,开展卓有成效的时间管理训练可以作为提高大学生社会适应能力的一种方法。     

承诺续扩现象及其心理机制

承诺续扩是指决策者在面对失败的结果时,仍然决定向先前的行动持续投入资源的现象。目前,自我申辩理论、前景理论和决策困境理论是承诺续扩解释机制中较有影响的三种理论。以往的相关实证研究所发现的影响承诺续扩的因素可以归为计划因素、心理因素、个体差异因素以及情境因素等四类。今后的研究有必要关注各解释机制的整合、相关变量之间关系体系的构建和因果路径的确定以及承诺续扩对决策者心理与行为可能造成的影响等问题     

In search of meaning: values in modern clinical behavior analysis

Skinner described behavior analysis as the field of values and purpose. However, he defined these concepts in terms of a history of reinforcement and failed to specify whether and how human and nonhuman values might differ. Human values have been seen as theoretically central within a number of nonbehavioral traditions in psychology, including humanism and positive psychology. However, these approaches have failed to provide explanations of the behavior-environment relations involved in valuing that might allow prediction and influence with respect to this phenomenon. Modern clinical behavior analysis in the form of acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), however, succeeds in providing a functional definition of human values that meets this latter criterion. ACT is rooted in behavior analysis and relational frame theory (RFT) and defines values in terms of verbally established motivation. ACT empirical research into values has begun to blossom in recent years, and ACT-RFT researchers are currently investigating the concept at the most basic empirical level as well as in the applied clinical arena, heralding new interest in and insight into values within clinical behavioral psychology.     

区域卫生规划与卫生资源配置

区域卫生规划与卫生资源配置的关系密不可分,同时也是解决医疗保健供需平衡的重大举措和主要手段。首先提出了区域卫生规划的现实意义和基本理论,并分析了建立区域卫生规划对解决以上问题怎样产生积极的影响。     

说服效应的理论模型、影响因素与应对策略

说服效应是指面临说服性信息时, 个体态度发生转变并影响其决策行为的一种现象, 该现象普遍存在于政治选举、生活消费及商业广告等领域, 具有重要的应用价值。说服效应的两个主要理论模型包括双加工模型和自我功效理论。信息源的可信度、情绪、信息框架、社会网络、事件卷入度等是影响说服效应的主要因素。说服效应的应对策略包括公开承诺和自我控制。未来的研究应该从说服效应的产生根源、特征成分及应用领域等方面进行深入地探讨。     

公共决策中的框架效应：理论解释及影响因素

公共决策中的框架效应是指在公共决策情境中, 人们的决策行为受媒体或领导人对同一问题的框架表述形式的影响而表现出不同决策偏好的现象。目前, 研究者对这一现象的解释主要有预期理论、查询理论和模糊痕迹理论。公共决策中框架效应的影响因素主要包括价值取向、知识水平、人际沟通、情绪以及框架的特征等。未来的研究需要从公共决策中框架效应的理论解释及神经机制、跨文化研究以及研究方式和应对策略等方面进一步探讨。     

工作搜索行为理论模型的述评

简要介绍了西方有关工作搜索行为的心理学理论模型,并进行了简要的述评。在此基础上,文章又根据已有的研究成果探讨了未来理论模型构建的趋向,并且认为自我决定理论、控制焦点理论以及洛克的工作动机模型对未来的模型建构具有重要的启示意义。     

情绪背景对面部表情识别的影响及其作用机制

正确识别面部表情对成功的社会交往有重要意义。面部表情识别受到情绪背景的影响。本文首先介绍了情绪背景对面部表情识别的增强作用,主要表现为视觉通道的情绪一致性效应和跨通道情绪整合效应;然后介绍了情绪背景对面部表情识别的阻碍作用,主要表现为情绪冲突效应和语义阻碍效应;接着介绍了情绪背景对中性和歧义面孔识别的影响,主要表现为背景的情绪诱发效应和阈下情绪启动效应;最后对现有研究进行了总结分析,提出了未来研究的建议。     

时间管理倾向与生活质量关系的调查研究

用自编成人时间管理倾向量表和生活质量综合评定问卷对重庆市75名不同职业者进行问卷调查,以探讨时间管理倾向与生活质量的关系。研究结果表明：时间管理倾向各维度没有显著的性别差异,但在时间价值感、时间监控观和总体评价上存在文化程度的差异;生活质量中的四个维度也不存在性别差异,但在物质生活状况维度上存在显著的文化程度的差异;时间管理倾向和生活质量之间存在显著相关,时间管理效能对躯体功能、心理功能和社会功能具有显著的预测作用。     

When forewarning backfires: Paradoxical effects of elaborating social feedback on entrapment in a losing course of action

Entrapment occurs if people persist with losing courses of action. In two experiments, we show how elaborating social feedback (i.e., premature praise or forewarning regarding the chosen course of action) can have paradoxical effects on entrapment. The participants acted as head of a translation department and had to choose one out of four possible translation strategies for their employees. After choosing, they read four arguments (presumably written by former participants) which were either all in favor of the strategy chosen, all against it, or mixed. Half of the participants only read these arguments, whereas the other half elaborated on them by providing written comments (Experiment 1). The results showed that elaborating on other persons' arguments led to stronger entrapment, independently of whether the arguments were positive or negative. This pattern was due to biased argument processing: Whereas confirming thoughts were generated for positive arguments, negative arguments were refuted. Experiment 2 confirmed that this biased argument processing caused subsequent entrapment. These results indicate that elaborating any type of argument can lead to heightened entrapment and, hence, forewarning can backfire. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内隐人格观对承诺升级的影响——成功期望的中介效应

研究旨在探讨内隐人格观对承诺升级的影响以及期望在其中的中介作用。研究1比较了个体的实体启动、渐变启动和无启动对照三种条件下,个体的承诺升级倾向是否受不同启动类型的影响。结果发现,被启动渐变论的被试与无启动和实体启动的被试相比,前者表现出更多的承诺升级倾向。研究2使用情景模拟任务,分析了个体不同内隐人格观与承诺升级的关系,并在此基础上探讨了成功期望的中介作用。结果发现:(1)个体越倾向渐变论则更多的产生承诺升级行为;(2)成功期望在内隐人格观与承诺升级的关系中起完全中介作用。