Optimisation in a Synchronised Prediction Setting

The standard approach to solve prediction tasks is to apply inductive methods such as, e.g., the straight rule. Such methods are proven to be access-optimal in specific prediction settings, but not in all. Within the optimality-approach of meta-induction, success-based weighted prediction methods are proven to be access-optimal in all possible continuous prediction settings. However, meta-induction fails to be access-optimal in so-called demonic discrete prediction environments where the predicted value is inversely correlated with the true outcome. In this paper the problem of discrete prediction environments is addressed by embedding them into a synchronised prediction setting. In such a setting the task consists in providing a discrete and a continuous prediction. It is shown that synchronisation constraints exclude the possibility of demonic environments.     

Reichenbach's concept of prediction

Reichenbach emphasizes the central importance of prediction, which is—for him—the principal aim of science. This paper offers a critical reconstruction of his concept of prediction, taking into account the different periods of his thought. First, prediction is studied as a key factor in rejecting the positivism of the Vienna Circle. This part of the discussion concentres on the general features of prediction before Experience and Prediction (EP) (section 1). Second, prediction is considered in the context of Reichenbach's disagreements with his contemporaries—Carnap and Popper—(section 2). Pointing out these differences gives an additional basis for understanding how Reichenbach saw “prediction” in the period when EP was written. Third, Reichenbach's theoretical framework of prediction is analysed following EP. This analysis studies the semantical, logical, epistemological and methodological bases of his concept of prediction (section 3). Fourth, Reichenbach's conception of prediction, based on an objectivist interpretation of probabilities, is compared with the perspective on prediction of subjective Bayesians (the present personalists). This comparison (section 4) illustrates Reichenbach's views regarding the links of prediction with probability. Fifth, innovations and elements of continuity after EP are noted which give a more complete picture of Reichenbach's thought on prediction (section 5). This contributes to a comprehensive characterization of his concept of prediction. Finally, there is an assessment of his whole view of the matter and a presentation of the ingredients for a satisfactory alternative (section 6).     

高低阅读技能聋生词汇加工的语境预测性效应特点:眼动证据

本研究考察中文聋生读者利用语境预测性信息促进词汇加工的过程特点。实验采用3（组别：高阅读技能聋生组vs.高阅读技能聋生的能力匹配健听组vs.低阅读技能聋生组）×2（句子背景对目标词的预测程度：高预测vs.低预测）混合设计。结果发现：（1）目标词的左侧词汇上,能力匹配健听组在凝视时间和总注视时间两个指标上可见语境预测性效应,两个聋生组在任何指标上均没有语境预测性效应;（2）目标词上,能力匹配健听组在首次注视时间、凝视时间和总注视时间三项指标上均可见显著的语境预测性效应,高阅读技能聋生组仅在总注视上可见语境预测性效应,低阅读技能聋生的任何眼动指标均没有语境预测性效应。由此可见,聋生在利用语境预测性促进词汇加工方面与健听读者有所差异;相对于低阅读技能聋生,高阅读技能聋生读者识别词汇时能更多地利用语境预测性信息。     

Iffy predictions and proper expectations

What individuates the speech act of prediction? The standard view is that prediction is individuated by the fact that it is the unique speech act that requires future-directed content. We argue against this view and two successor views. We then lay out several other potential strategies for individuating prediction, including the sort of view we favor. We suggest that prediction is individuated normatively and has a special connection to the epistemic standards of expectation. In the process, we advocate some constraints that we think a good theory of prediction should respect.     

An effective daily box office prediction model based on deep neural networks

The task of the daily box office prediction model is to build a dynamic prediction model to rolling forecast daily box office. It is a complex task as the movie box office has a short life cycle, and the static data and dynamic data that affect the trend of box office are heterogeneous. This paper proposes an end-to-end deep learning model for daily box office prediction, called Deep-DBP which consists of temporal component and static characteristics component. The temporal component is the main component which uses LSTM to learn the temporal dependencies between data points. The static characteristics component is an auxiliary component and it integrates static characteristics to improve prediction effect. The Deep-DBP can overcome the problems that the ARIMA and traditional ANN model cannot solve. The structure of input and output proposed in the model can well handle short time series prediction problem. It is a successful case in dealing with multi-source and multi-view data, addition of static characteristics component reduces the prediction error by 7%. The prediction error of Deep-DBP is 30.1%, which is better than that of the previous model. The experiment proved that the more training data collected, the better the prediction effect.     

The time course of the verbal prediction effect

Choice reaction times following correct verbal predictions of the presented stimulus are faster than after incorrect predictions. Two experiments examined the influence of the time interval (PSI) between the prediction and the stimulus on the magnitude of the prediction effect. Experiment 1 used equiprobable stimuli and showed a smaller prediction effect at a 2-sec PSI than at a 0- or .5-sec PSI. Experiment 2 used unequal-probability stimuli and showed that the prediction effect was independent of PSI when the more frequent stimulus was predicted. When the less frequent stimulus was predicted, however, the magnitude of the prediction effect was smaller at .75- and 2-sec PSIs than at a 0-sec PSI. These results were discussed in terms of a prediction substitution hypothesis.     

Prediction outcome probabilities as determinants of choice reaction time

In a two-stimulus two-response choice reaction time (RT) task in which Ss made stimulus predictions, the probability of a correct prediction was manipulated between Ss. The magnitude of the difference in RT to correctly and incorrectly predicted stimuli (i.e., the prediction outcome effect) was an increasing function of the probability of a correct prediction This finding was primarily due to a reliable decrease in RT to correctly predicted stimuli as the probability of a correct prediction increased, since RT to incorrectly predicted stimuli was not affected by prediction outcome probability. These results were interpreted as partially supporting a continuous expectancy notion which involves facilitory and inhibitory mechanisms winch are differentially influenced by the probability of a correct prediction.     

A new Method for Determining Reliability Coefficient: The Consistency Index

It was predicted that murderers would differ in their body-image boundary dimensions from attempted suicides. It was found that the murderers obtained lower barrier scores, which was in opposition to the prediction, and lower penetration scores, which was in agreement with the prediction. Overall, therefore, the prediction was not supported.     

句法加工中的预测现象及实验证据

句法加工是读者通过整合输入的言语信息来理解句子的过程。句法加工的存在,使得读者能够提前预测文本的信息,提高阅读效率。由于阅读离不开信息整合,研究者提出两类不同的句法理论:句法预测的模块局域性理论和句法预测的互动分析性观点。这两类理论的争论点在于句法加工是单独模块化的自上而下加工,还是自下而上-自上而下的互动分析加工过程。其区别表现为句法预测的作用——前者认为句法预测对句子加工有抑制作用,后者认为句法预测对句子加工起促进作用。来自眼动、ERP等研究的数据佐证了句法预测的存在。未来研究应围绕其差异进行深入探讨,以揭示句法加工的实质。     

A synthetic validity approach to testing differential prediction hypotheses

A new method is presented for conducting differential prediction analyses that makes it possible to test differential prediction hypotheses with adequate statistical power even when the sample size within a job or a job family is very small. This method, called synthetic differential prediction analysis, represents an application of the logic of synthetic validation to differential prediction analyses. The authors explain this new method and describe its application in a selection-system validation study conducted in a large organization.     

预期错误在恐惧记忆更新中的作用与机制

依据错误驱动的学习理论,行为预期结果与实际结果之间的不匹配即预期错误(Predictionerror,PE)是学习产生的驱动因素。作为显著性信息中的一种,预期错误和物理显著性、惊讶、新异性等存在信息加工阶段的不同,与记忆更新的关系也有差异。近年来,记忆再巩固干预范式(reconsolidation interference)被证明可用于人类条件性恐惧记忆的更新,其中记忆提取激活阶段所包含的预期错误起到了引发记忆“去稳定”、开启记忆再巩固的关键作用。在促进恐惧记忆更新的行为机制上,PE被认为是记忆去稳定的必要非充分条件。记忆提取必须包含适量的PE,但其引发的是记忆去稳定、消退还是中间状态,还需结合记忆本身性质确定。在促进恐惧记忆更新的神经机制上,杏仁核、导水管周围灰质(PAG)、海马均在PE探测和计算过程中具有重要作用;前额叶皮层(PFC)及其亚区在PE开启记忆再巩固过程中扮演了重要角色。上述过程又受到神经系统中特定神经递质的重要调节,尤其是多巴胺能和谷氨酸能。未来研究应进一步探索基于PE计算模型的量化研究,整合PE与其他边界条件的交互作用,考察不同类型显著性在记忆再巩固中的作用等;并亟...     

Theory use in social predictions

In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people’s behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between own and predicted behavior. This renders correlations largely useless for identifying the prediction strategy. We argue that prediction by theory is a serious alternative to prediction by simulation, and that reliance on correlation has led to a bias toward simulation.     

维度的结合与分离对归类不确定性预测的影响

探讨在归类不确定的情境下目标与预测特征两个维度的结合或分离对被试特征预测的影响。共包括 3个实验 :实验 1在Murphy和Ross的研究的基础上进一步提高非靶类型中目标及预测特征的基本概率 ,考察被试的特征预测是否会受非靶类型信息的影响。实验 2探讨非靶类型的目标与预测特征结合与否是否会影响被试预测特征时对非靶类型信息的使用。实验 3探讨提高靶类型中目标与预测特征结合的比例是否影响被试对特征的预测。结果表明 :当非靶类型中目标与关键特征处于分离的状态时 ,被试在进行特征预测时没有利用非靶类型的信息 ,符合单类说的假设 ;而当非靶类型中目标与关键特征结合时 ,被试在进行特征预测时则会利用非靶类型的信息 ,符合Bayesian规则 ;靶类型中的目标与关键特征结合的比例提高 ,被试对特征预测的概率也随之提高。据此 ,本研究将目标与预测特征结合比例这个变量加入Bayesian规则的计算公式 ,对该预测模型进行了修正     

What's next? New evidence for prediction in human vision

Everyday visual experience involves making implicit predictions, as revealed by our surprise when something disturbs our expectations. Many theories of vision have been premised on the central role played by prediction. Yet, implicit prediction in human vision has been difficult to assess in the laboratory, and many results have not distinguished between the indisputably important role of memory and the future-oriented aspect of prediction. Now, a new and unexpected finding - that humans can resume an interrupted visual search much faster than they can start a new search - offers new hope, because the rapid resumption of a search seems to depend on participants forming an implicit prediction of what they will see after the interruption. These findings combined with results of recent neurophysiology studies provide a framework for studying implicit prediction in perception.     

Flexibility of theory of mind in a matrix game when partner's level is different

The development of theory of mind (ToM) was investigated as flexibility of prediction and decision-making in matrix games with 202 13-, 16-, 19-, and 24-year-old participants. The ToM flexibility of prediction and decision-making showed no significant differences among any age group. The ToM flexibility of prediction and decision-making of the 0th-order partner was better than that of the 1st-order partner. The ToM flexibility of prediction was better than the ToM flexibility of decision making. Matrix games are a feasible, effective, and discriminative way to explore higher levels of theory of mind.     

Biases in affective forecasting and recall in individuals with depression and anxiety symptoms

The authors used experience sampling to investigate biases in affective forecasting and recall in individuals with varying levels of depression and anxiety symptoms. Participants who were higher in depression symptoms demonstrated stronger (more pessimistic) negative mood prediction biases, marginally stronger negative mood recall biases, and weaker (less optimistic) positive mood prediction and recall biases. Participants who were higher in anxiety symptoms demonstrated stronger negative mood prediction biases, but positive mood prediction biases that were on par with those who were lower in anxiety. Anxiety symptoms were not associated with mood recall biases. Neither depression symptoms nor anxiety symptoms were associated with bias in event prediction. Their findings fit well with the tripartite model of depression and anxiety. Results are also consistent with the conceptualization of anxiety as a "forward-looking" disorder, and with theories that emphasize the importance of pessimism and general negative information processing in depressive functioning.     

Prediction of suicide: a replication study.

As part of an ongoing study on the prediction of suicide, a replication study was carried out on the Neuropsychiatric Hospital Suicide Potential Scale (NPHSPS), a recently constructed schedule for prediction of potentiality for committed suicide among hospitalized neuropsychiatric patients at the time of release from the hospital. The population consisted of 54 patients who had committed suicide and 50 patients who had not. Overall accuracy of the scale was 81.7 percent, with 95.2 percent accuracy for prediction of the high risk group and 80.0 percent accuracy for prediction of nonsuicidal controls. By computation of posterior probability, the scale is shown to increase accuracy of prediction more than five-fold over use of the base rate (or prior probability) alone, but it is also evident the level of prediction of suicide is still too minimal to permit individual clinical application.     

Exploring the Clinical Implications of the International CS Reference Data for Children and Adolescents (Meyer,Erdberg, & Shaffer, 2007)

As part of an ongoing study on the prediction of suicide, a replication study was carried out on the Neuropsychiatric Hospital Suicide Potential Scale (NPHSPS), a recently constructed schedule for prediction of potentiality for committed suicide among hospitalized neuropsychiatric patients at the time of release from the hospital. The population consisted of 54 patients who had committed suicide and 50 patients who had not. Overall accuracy of the scale was 81.7 percent, with 95.2 percent accuracy for prediction of the high risk group and 80.0 percent accuracy for prediction of nonsuicidal controls. By computation of posterior probability, the scale is shown to increase accuracy of prediction more than five-fold over use of the base rate (or prior probability) alone, but it is also evident the level of prediction of suicide is still too minimal to permit individual clinical application.