Effect of Regret on Post-choice Valuation: The Case of More Than Two Alternatives

The author examines the influence of experienced regret on the selection of the reference point used in post-choice valuation. He incorporates two reference points, expected performance and performance of the forgone alternative, the former affecting the amount of satisfaction and the latter affecting the amount of regret experienced by a decision maker. Prior research on regret has assumed only a two-alternative choice set with the forgone alternative being the reference point for measuring regret. The author relaxes that assumption and develops hypotheses to examine the selection of the reference point in cases that more closely represent real-life experience (i.e., choice sets with more than two alternatives). Two studies are reported. The results from the first study support most of the hypotheses. The second study further investigated the selection of a reference point. Several theoretical and managerial implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.     

Protecting the self from the negative consequences of risky decisions.

Three experiments tested the idea that a motive to protect self-esteem (SE) from the threat of regret can influence decision making. Threat to SE was manipulated by varying whether people expected to know the outcome of their decisions. Study 1 showed that when Ss expected feedback about their decisions, only Ss low in SE made regret-minimizing choices. Study 2 showed that when Ss did not expect to know the outcome of their decisions, SE differences in choice strategies disappeared. Study 3 manipulated expectations about feedback on chosen and unchosen alternatives and showed that the more feedback that was expected, the more likely low but not high SE Ss were to make regret-minimizing choices. These studies suggest that people base decisions not only on objective attributes of choice alternatives, but also on the damage to SE that is perceived to result from a poor-decision outcome.     

Decision Making Characteristics and Decision Styles Predict Adolescents’ Career Choice Satisfaction

Choosing one’s future career represents one of the most important decisions individuals face during their development. In the present study, Croatian college students recollected the process of choosing their future professional paths at the end of high school, and evaluated the outcome of this process. Specifically, students described how they chose between different career options, typically different college majors, available to them at that time. They specified the number and main characteristics of considered alternatives, the underlying motivation and timing of committing to a particular option, and reported how satisfied they were with the made choices. Next, the present study explored the influence of several identified decision making characteristics on participants’ immediate and delayed satisfaction with the chosen option. Additionally, the influence of several decision styles on individuals’ satisfaction was investigated. The obtained results indicate that, among decision making features, decision certainty represented the only significant predictor of participants’ immediate satisfaction with the made decision. The appeal of the preferred option and the number of considered options were revealed as additional significant predictors of delayed satisfaction with the chosen alternative. With regard to decision styles, regret and a distinct commitment factor predicted participants’ satisfaction with the made choice.     

Counterfactual seeking: The scenic overlook of the road not taken

Decision makers faced with an opportunity to learn the outcome of a foregone alternative must balance anticipated regret, should that information be unfavorable, with the potential benefits of this information in reducing experienced regret. Counterfactual seeking, the choice to learn more about foregone alternatives, may be a functional, regret-regulating strategy for individuals already experiencing regret. Counterfactual seeking increases in response to dissatisfying outcomes (Studies 1 and 2). Counterfactual seeking is generally able to reduce dissatisfaction (Study 2), regardless of whether individuals personally chose to view this information or were randomly assigned to do so (Study 3). Moreover, both imaginative (vs. factual) thoughts about the foregone option and upward (vs. downward) counterfactual thoughts play a role in this improvement in satisfaction (Study 4). Regret thus has a complex influence in how individuals engage with counterfactual information.     

Different Attentional Patterns for Regret and Disappointment: An Eye‐tracking Study

The unfavorable comparison between the obtained and expected outcomes of our choices may elicit disappointment. When the comparison is made with the outcome of alternative actions, emotions like regret can serve as a learning signal. Previous work showed that both anticipated disappointment and regret influence decisions. In addition, experienced regret is associated with higher emotional responses than disappointment. Yet it is not clear whether this amplification is due to additive effects of disappointment and regret when the outcomes of alternative actions are available, or whether it reflects the learning feature of regret signals. In this perspective, we used eye‐tracking to measure the visual pattern of information acquisition in a probabilistic lottery task. In the partial feedback condition, only the outcome of the chosen lottery was revealed, while in the complete feedback condition, participants could compare their outcome with that of the non‐chosen lottery, giving them the opportunity to experience regret. During the decision phase, visual patterns of information acquisition were consistent with the assessment of anticipated regret, in addition to a clear assessment of lotteries' expected values. During the feedback phase, subjective ratings and eye‐tracking results confirmed that participants compared their outcome with the outcome of the non‐chosen lottery in the complete feedback condition, particularly after a loss, and ignored the non‐realized outcome of the chosen option. Moreover, participants who made more visual saccades consistent with counterfactual comparisons during the feedback period anticipated regret more in their decisions. These results are consistent with the proposed adaptive function of regret. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Replicated alternatives and the role of confusion,chasing, and regret in decisions from experience

The current paper explores choice among alternatives that can be classified into distinct classes. All the members of a particular class were ‘replicated alternatives’: they promised the same payoff distribution. Information to decision makers was limited to feedback concerning the realized (obtained and foregone) payoffs. Experiment 1 demonstrates that increasing the number of replicated alternatives creates confusion (which facilitates random choice) and changes the implications of the tendency to chase recent returns (i.e., select the alternative with the best recent outcomes). This effect, termed ‘confused chasing,’ facilitates risk seeking even when this behavior impairs expected earnings. Experiment 2 reveals that increasing the number of replicated alternatives can reduce (but does not eliminate) the tendency to underweight rare events. Experiment 3 shows that the relative importance of chasing and confusion is sensitive to the likelihood of realizing lower payoffs than the forgone payoffs. The main results are summarized with a simple model assuming that payoff sensitivity decreases with experienced regret. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants of the perception of choice

Two experiments were conducted to investigate possible determinants of perceived choice. The first experiment employed an observer paradigm and the second employed an actor paradigm. The results of both studies provided evidence for the hypotheses that perceived choice will be greater when there is a small difference in attractiveness between outcome alternatives than when there is a large difference and under conditions of low certainty about the attractiveness of each outcome alternative than under conditions of high certainty. Also, the results of both studies provided some evidence for the hypothesis that the effect of the relative difference in attractiveness upon perceived choice will be greater under conditions of low certainty than under conditions of high certainty. The hypothesis that perceived choice will be less when there is no difference in attractiveness between outcome alternatives than when there is a small difference was not supported by the results of the first experiment but was supported by the results of the second experiment. The hypothesis that perceived choice will be greater the more time a person takes to select an action from possible actions was supported by results of the first experiment but not by those of the second experiment. The results for the relative difference and certainty variables were discussed in terms of a theoretical analysis of perceived choice.     

Postdecision evaluation of choice alternatives as a function of valence of alternatives,choice, and expected delay of choice consequences

The effects of valence of alternatives, choice, and expected delay of choice consequences on postdecision evaluations of choice alternatives were studied by either giving subjects a choice between two experimental tasks (both either pleasant or unpleasant) or assigning subjects their initially preferred task. Crosscutting valence and choice, subjects expected either no delay, 10-min delay, or 30-min delay before engaging in the task. All subjects evaluated both tasks immediately after the delay instructions but before experiencing the actual delay. Results confirmed the expected dissonance effect; that is, an upward evaluation of the chosen alternative and a downward evaluation of the rejected alternative, relative to no-choice conditions. Moreover, the relative upward evaluation of the chosen alternative increased as the expected delay decreased. Valence was not found to interact with other variables. The results are discussed in terms of differential salience of choice alternatives.     

Differentiation and consolidation theory of human decision making: A frame of reference for the study of pre- and post-decision processes

Differentiation and Consolidation Theory of decision making models human decision making as an active process in which one alternative is gradually differentiated from other available alternatives. The theory is based on the assumption that it is not sufficient to choose the best alternative, but that a decision involves the selection and creation of a candidate that is sufficiently superior for a decision. This is achieved in differentiation processes which are wholistic, structural or process related. To exemplify, structural differentiation includes both facts and attractiveness restructuring. Following a decision, the theory predicts consolidation processes which work in favor of the chosen alternative. Both differentiation and consolidation are driven by the fact that through experience with the impredictability of the future, a decision maker has learned to prepare for threats against the chosen alternatives. The further this alternative has been differentiated and consolidated, the less the risk of post-decision ambiguity, regret or decision reversal. The study is concluded with references to othee decision theories some of which are viewed as subtheories of Differentiation and Consolidation Theory.     

Decision speed and choice regret: When haste feels like waste

We test a metacognitive account of why larger choice sets often lead to greater regret, proposing that people apply the lay theory that “a quick choice is a bad choice” when evaluating how well they have chosen. Because people often operate under time pressure, larger sets are likely to entail a more cursory selection process than smaller sets, generating a feeling of having rushed the evaluation of the alternatives and heightened regret. Four studies show that choice-set size does not influence participants' regret when they believe that they had enough time to choose, that the subjective feeling of being rushed accounts for greater regret when choosing from larger sets, and that changing people's lay theories about choosing quickly eliminates regret.     

Children's understanding of counterfactual emotions: Age differences,individual differences,and the effects of counterfactual‐information salience

The present study investigated developmental trends in the effects of the salience of counterfactual alternatives on judgments of others' counterfactual‐thinking‐based emotions. We also examined possible correlates of individual differences in the understanding of these emotions. Thirty‐four adults and 102 children, 5–8 years of age, were presented scenarios in which characters would be expected to experience regret. In one version of each scenario, the regret‐relevant counterfactual alternative was made more salient than was the case with the other version. Adults consistently judged that a character for whom a counterfactual course of events would have resulted in a better outcome would feel worse than a character for whom an alternative course of events would not have resulted in a more positive outcome. The majority of the children's judgments were not affected by the counterfactual alternatives. However, the judgments of the oldest children (the 8‐year‐olds) were significantly more adult‐like in the high‐salience than in the low‐salience condition. Although the three predictors examined in the present study (verbal ability, working memory capacity, second‐order false belief task performance) together accounted for significant variance in performance on the emotions judgment task, no single predictor alone accounted for significant unique variance in performance. The importance of different social cognitive abilities for understanding people's affective responses is discussed.     

责任对后悔强度的影响：来自ERP的证据

采用事件相关电位技术,研究责任对后悔的影响。实验采用赌博范式,主要因素是被试对于负性结果所负责任的大小,分为三个水平：1（只有被试一人犯错）、1/2（被试和另外一个人犯错）以及1/3（三人同时犯错）。研究结果发现,被试主观评定的情绪强度和责任感上,1条件下的显著大于1/2和1/3条件下的,而1/2和1/3条件无显著差异;被试的反事实思维则在三个水平上差异显著,责任越大,反事实思维越强。fERN（feedback error-related negativity,反馈错误相关负波,也称FRN,反馈负波）的波幅在1条件下的显著大于1/2和1/3条件下的,而1/2和1/3条件下的无显著差异;而P300的波幅则在三种水平上差异显著,责任越大,波幅越小。结果支持责任对后悔强度有所影响,且后悔强度在一定程度上随责任大小呈线性变化。     

A Reverse Outcome Bias: The Influence of Multiple Reference Points on the Evaluation of Outcomes and Decisions

Two experiments examined the influence of multiple reference points on the evaluation of outcomes and decisions that lead to those outcomes. Norm theory is applied as a conceptual framework for understanding the conditions under which alternative norms may be evoked by the decision context and how they are subsequently used as reference points in the evaluation process. Of primary interest, in these studies, was how an outcome is evaluated when two reference points, the status quo and an evoked alternative, provide conflicting information about the "goodness" of the outcome (the outcome is good from the perspective of one reference point and bad from the perspective of the other). A gambling paradigm, based on regret theory, is employed to address these questions. We find that an alternative outcome is more likely to be evoked as a reference point when: (1) it is certain that another choice would have led to the alternative outcome; (2) a social comparison other receives the alternative outcome; and (3) the alternative outcome is in a different evaluative domain than the outcome received (i.e., is negative when the outcome received is positive). When these conditions hold, and the alternative outcome is used as a reference point for evaluation, the evaluations which result are quite counterintuitive: winners are rated as more regretful over their choices than losers are considered to be less satisfied with their outcomes than losers, and are rated as having made poorer quality decision than losers, who made the same choice! The latter finding represents a complete reversal of the outcome bias often observed in judgments of decisions made under uncertainty.     

Myopic regret avoidance: Feedback avoidance and learning in repeated decision making

Decision makers can become trapped by myopic regret avoidance in which rejecting feedback to avoid short-term outcome regret (regret associated with counterfactual outcome comparisons) leads to reduced learning and greater long-term regret over continuing poor decisions. In a series of laboratory experiments involving repeated choices among uncertain monetary prospects, participants primed with outcome regret tended to decline feedback, learned the task slowly or not at all, and performed poorly. This pattern was reversed when decision makers were primed with self-blame regret (regret over an unjustified decision). Further, in a final experiment in which task learning was unnecessary, feedback was more often rejected in the self-blame regret condition than in the outcome regret condition. We discuss the findings in terms of a distinction between two regret components, one associated with outcome evaluation, the other with the justifiability of the decision process used in making the choice.     

旁观者及其与个体的亲密程度对后悔情绪的影响

后悔情绪是反事实思维的产物,对个体决策行为的改善具有积极作用,能够激发个体反思既往选择,优化未来决策。该研究采用经典的连续冒险任务,从人际交互角度切入,考察了有无旁观者以及旁观者与个体的亲密程度对后悔情绪的影响。结果发现:(1)相对于无人在场,旁观者在场时个体更不后悔;(2)旁观者与个体间的亲密度能够在一定程度上影响个体的后悔情绪:在错过所有收益引发后悔的条件下,相对于无人在场,陌生人在场时个体更不后悔,而恋人在场时个体后悔情绪无明显变化。本研究的发现可以更好地帮助人们理解社会背景下后悔情绪的影响因素和发生机制。     

Binary choice under instructions to select versus reject

Two experiments examine differences in binary choice under select versus reject instructions. Three aspects of the choice process are examined: commitment to the chosen alternative, absolute magnitude of attribute evaluations, and information distortion during the choice process. Although the findings support previously hypothesized causes (Study 1), these results are reversed when the decision alternatives are uniformly negative (Study 2a). Accompanying verbal protocols (Study 2b) provide additional insights into the underlying decision process. The results consistently support a compatibility effect. Whenever there is a match between the valences of the alternatives and of the decision strategy, namely selecting a positive alternative or rejecting a negative one, there is greater accentuation of attribute differences, higher certainty in the final choice, and more information distortion. Metaphorically, the choice process seems to flow more smoothly in the compatible conditions.     

When and why do we want to know? How experienced regret promotes post‐decision information search

The effect of emotional and situational factors on the decision to seek out post‐decision information about un‐chosen alternative was examined in five experiments. Experiment 1 tested participants' willingness to find out the outcome of an un‐chosen investment that was likely to have a higher value than the chosen investment. It was found that participants were more willing to acquire information when they were responsible for the decision. Experiment 2 showed that responsibility affects information seeking, in particular when one suspects that a wrong decision was made. Experiments 3–5 examined the role of regret on information seeking. It was shown that regret about making the wrong investment (Experiment 3), forgetting to send in a lottery ticket (Experiment 4), and missing an opportunity to use a discount card after spending a month in Australia (Experiment 5), mediates the information‐seeking behavior. Experiment 5 also demonstrated that the experience of regret (and not its anticipation) influences post‐decision information seeking even when the information is of no future use. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

决策中后悔的ERP研究

采用运气轮博弈范式探讨后悔的加工时程。分析决策正误的ERPs发现,200～300ms决策错误比正确诱发更为负走向的波,表现为典型的FRN（feedback-related negativity, FRN）;300～400ms决策正确比错误诱发更大的P300。500～900ms决策正确比错误诱发更大的LPC（late positive component, LPC）,并表现出明显的右半球优势效应。上述结果支持了FRN加工反馈刺激显著性信息和P300加工反馈刺激效价的观点,研究发现后悔与LPC可能具有密切关联。将来研究须在控制得失程度基础上,考察FRN、P300和LPC与效价、得失及得失程度和情绪体验的关系。