四参数Logistic模型潜在特质参数的Warm加权极大似然估计

本文以四参数Logistic(4-parameter Logistic,4PL)模型为研究对象,根据Warm的加权极大似然估计技巧,提出了4PL模型潜在特质参数的加权极大似然估计方法,并借助模拟研究对加权极大似然估计的性质进行验证。研究结果表明,与通常的极大似然估计和后验期望估计相比,加权极大似然估计的偏差(bias)明显减小,并且具有良好的返真性能。此外,在测试的长度较短和项目的区分度较小的情况下,加权极大似然估计依然保持了良好的统计性质,表现出更加显著的优势。     

A note on item information in any direction for the multidimensional three-parameter logistic model

The purpose of this note is twofold: (a) to present the formula for the item information function (IIF) in any direction for the Multidimensional 3-Parameter Logistic (M3-PL) model and (b) to give the equation for the location of maximum item information (θ_max) in the direction of the item discrimination vector. Several corollaries are given. Implications for future research are discussed.This research was supported in part by an Educational Testing Service (ETS) Harold T. Gulliksen Psychometric Research Fellowship to the author.This revised article was published online in August 2005 with the PDF paginated correctly.     

Bayesian estimation in the three-parameter logistic model

A joint Bayesian estimation procedure for the estimation of parameters in the three-parameter logistic model is developed in this paper. Procedures for specifying prior beliefs for the parameters are given. It is shown through simulation studies that the Bayesian procedure (i) ensures that the estimates stay in the parameter space, and (ii) produces better estimates than the joint maximum likelihood procedure as judged by such criteria as mean squared differences between estimates and true values. The research reported here was performed pursuant to Grant No. N0014-79-C-0039 with the Office of Naval Research. A related article by Robert J. Mislevy (1986) appeared when the present paper was in the printing stage.     

Latent variable selection in multidimensional item response theory models using the expectation model selection algorithm

The aim of latent variable selection in multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models is to identify latent traits probed by test items of a multidimensional test. In this paper the expectation model selection (EMS) algorithm proposed by Jiang et al. (2015) is applied to minimize the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for latent variable selection in MIRT models with a known number of latent traits. Under mild assumptions, we prove the numerical convergence of the EMS algorithm for model selection by minimizing the BIC of observed data in the presence of missing data. For the identification of MIRT models, we assume that the variances of all latent traits are unity and each latent trait has an item that is only related to it. Under this identifiability assumption, the convergence of the EMS algorithm for latent variable selection in the multidimensional two-parameter logistic (M2PL) models can be verified. We give an efficient implementation of the EMS for the M2PL models. Simulation studies show that the EMS outperforms the EM-based L₁ regularization in terms of correctly selected latent variables and computation time. The EMS algorithm is applied to a real data set related to the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire.     

A multidimensional item response model: Constrained latent class analysis using the gibbs sampler and posterior predictive checks

In this paper it will be shown that a certain class of constrained latent class models may be interpreted as a special case of nonparametric multidimensional item response models. The parameters of this latent class model will be estimated using an application of the Gibbs sampler. It will be illustrated that the Gibbs sampler is an excellent tool if inequality constraints have to be taken into consideration when making inferences. Model fit will be investigated using posterior predictive checks. Checks for manifest monotonicity, the agreement between the observed and expected conditional association structure, marginal local homogeneity, and the number of latent classes will be presented.This paper is supported by grant S40-645 of the Dutch Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).     

Multilevel multidimensional item response model with a multilevel latent covariate

In a pre‐test–post‐test cluster randomized trial, one of the methods commonly used to detect an intervention effect involves controlling pre‐test scores and other related covariates while estimating an intervention effect at post‐test. In many applications in education, the total post‐test and pre‐test scores, ignoring measurement error, are used as response variable and covariate, respectively, to estimate the intervention effect. However, these test scores are frequently subject to measurement error, and statistical inferences based on the model ignoring measurement error can yield a biased estimate of the intervention effect. When multiple domains exist in test data, it is sometimes more informative to detect the intervention effect for each domain than for the entire test. This paper presents applications of the multilevel multidimensional item response model with measurement error adjustments in a response variable and a covariate to estimate the intervention effect for each domain.     

A dual process item response theory model for polytomous multidimensional forced-choice items

The use of multidimensional forced-choice (MFC) items to assess non-cognitive traits such as personality, interests and values in psychological tests has a long history, because MFC items show strengths in preventing response bias. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in developing item response theory (IRT) models for MFC items. However, nearly all of the existing IRT models have been developed for MFC items with binary scores. Real tests use MFC items with more than two categories; such items are more informative than their binary counterparts. This study developed a new IRT model for polytomous MFC items based on the cognitive model of choice, which describes the cognitive processes underlying humans' preferential choice behaviours. The new model is unique in its ability to account for the ipsative nature of polytomous MFC items, to assess individual psychological differentiation in interests, values and emotions, and to compare the differentiation levels of latent traits between individuals. Simulation studies were conducted to examine the parameter recovery of the new model with existing computer programs. The results showed that both statement parameters and person parameters were well recovered when the sample size was sufficient. The more complete the linking of the statements was, the more accurate the parameter estimation was. This paper provides an empirical example of a career interest test using four-category MFC items. Although some aspects of the model (e.g., the nature of the person parameters) require additional validation, our approach appears promising.     

Gaussian variational estimation for multidimensional item response theory

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) is widely used in assessment and evaluation of educational and psychological tests. It models the individual response patterns by specifying a functional relationship between individuals' multiple latent traits and their responses to test items. One major challenge in parameter estimation in MIRT is that the likelihood involves intractable multidimensional integrals due to the latent variable structure. Various methods have been proposed that involve either direct numerical approximations to the integrals or Monte Carlo simulations. However, these methods are known to be computationally demanding in high dimensions and rely on sampling data points from a posterior distribution. We propose a new Gaussian variational expectation--maximization (GVEM) algorithm which adopts variational inference to approximate the intractable marginal likelihood by a computationally feasible lower bound. In addition, the proposed algorithm can be applied to assess the dimensionality of the latent traits in an exploratory analysis. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the computational efficiency and estimation precision of the new GVEM algorithm compared to the popular alternative Metropolis–Hastings Robbins–Monro algorithm. In addition, theoretical results are presented to establish the consistency of the estimator from the new GVEM algorithm.     

Marginalized maximum a posteriori estimation for the four-parameter logistic model under a mixture modelling framework

The four-parameter logistic model (4PLM) has recently attracted much interest in various applications. Motivated by recent studies that re-express the four-parameter model as a mixture model with two levels of latent variables, this paper develops a new expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for marginalized maximum a posteriori estimation of the 4PLM parameters. The mixture modelling framework of the 4PLM not only makes the proposed EM algorithm easier to implement in practice, but also provides a natural connection with popular cognitive diagnosis models. Simulation studies were conducted to show the good performance of the proposed estimation method and to investigate the impact of the additional upper asymptote parameter on the estimation of other parameters. Moreover, a real data set was analysed using the 4PLM to show its improved performance over the three-parameter logistic model.     

Sequential sampling designs for the two-parameter item response theory model

In optimal design research, designs are optimized with respect to some statistical criterion under a certain model for the data. The ideas from optimal design research have spread into various fields of research, and recently have been adopted in test theory and applied to item response theory (IRT) models. In this paper a generalized variance criterion is used for sequential sampling in the two-parameter IRT model. Some general principles are offered to enable a researcher to select the best sampling design for the efficient estimation of item parameters.     

A general Bayesian multilevel multidimensional IRT model for locally dependent data

Many item response theory (IRT) models take a multidimensional perspective to deal with sources that induce local item dependence (LID), with these models often making an orthogonal assumption about the dimensional structure of the data. One reason for this assumption is because of the indeterminacy issue in estimating the correlations among the dimensions in structures often specified to deal with sources of LID (e.g., bifactor and two-tier structures), and the assumption usually goes untested. Unfortunately, the mere fact that assessing these correlations is a challenge for some estimation methods does not mean that data seen in practice support such orthogonal structure. In this paper, a Bayesian multilevel multidimensional IRT model for locally dependent data is presented. This model can test whether item response data violate the orthogonal assumption that many IRT models make about the dimensional structure of the data when addressing sources of LID, and this test is carried out at the dimensional level while accounting for sampling clusters. Simulations show that the model presented is effective at carrying out this task. The utility of the model is also illustrated on an empirical data set.     

Increasing item complexity: A possible cause of scale shrinkage for unidimensional item response theory

When the three-parameter logistic model is applied to tests covering a broad range of difficulty, there frequently is an increase in mean item discrimination and a decrease in variance of item difficulties and traits as the tests become more difficult. To examine the hypothesis that this unexpected scale shrinkage effect occurs because the items increase in complexity as they increase in difficulty, an approximate relationship is derived between the unidimensional model used in data analysis and a multidimensional model hypothesized to be generating the item responses. Scale shrinkage is successfully predicted for several sets of simulated data.The author is grateful to Robert Mislevy for kindly providing a copy of his computer program, RESOLVE.     

A semiparametric approach for item response function estimation to detect item misfit

When scaling data using item response theory, valid statements based on the measurement model are only permissible if the model fits the data. Most item fit statistics used to assess the fit between observed item responses and the item responses predicted by the measurement model show significant weaknesses, such as the dependence of fit statistics on sample size and number of items. In order to assess the size of misfit and to thus use the fit statistic as an effect size, dependencies on properties of the data set are undesirable. The present study describes a new approach and empirically tests it for consistency. We developed an estimator of the distance between the predicted item response functions (IRFs) and the true IRFs by semiparametric adaptation of IRFs. For the semiparametric adaptation, the approach of extended basis functions due to Ramsay and Silverman (2005) is used. The IRF is defined as the sum of a linear term and a more flexible term constructed via basis function expansions. The group lasso method is applied as a regularization of the flexible term, and determines whether all parameters of the basis functions are fixed at zero or freely estimated. Thus, the method serves as a selection criterion for items that should be adjusted semiparametrically. The distance between the predicted and semiparametrically adjusted IRF of misfitting items can then be determined by describing the fitting items by the parametric form of the IRF and the misfitting items by the semiparametric approach. In a simulation study, we demonstrated that the proposed method delivers satisfactory results in large samples (i.e., N ≥ 1,000).     

Specifying optimum examinees for item parameter estimation in item response theory

Information functions are used to find the optimum ability levels and maximum contributions to information for estimating item parameters in three commonly used logistic item response models. For the three and two parameter logistic models, examinees who contribute maximally to the estimation of item difficulty contribute little to the estimation of item discrimination. This suggests that in applications that depend heavily upon the veracity of individual item parameter estimates (e.g. adaptive testing or text construction), better item calibration results may be obtained (for fixed sample sizes) from examinee calibration samples in which ability is widely dispersed.This work was supported by Contract No. N00014-83-C-0457, project designation NR 150-520, from Cognitive Science Program, Cognitive and Neural Sciences Division, Office of Naval Research and Educational Testing Service through the Program Research Planning Council. Reproduction in whole or in part is permitted for any purpose of the United States Government. The author wishes to acknowledge the invaluable assistance of Maxine B. Kingston in carrying out this study, and to thank Charles Lewis for his many insightful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

An item response tree model with not-all-distinct end nodes for non-response modelling

The non-response model in Knott et al. (1991, Statistician, 40, 217) can be represented as a tree model with one branch for response/non-response and another branch for correct/incorrect response, and each branch probability is characterized by an item response theory model. In the model, it is assumed that there is only one source of non-responses. However, in questionnaires or educational tests, non-responses might come from different sources, such as test speededness, inability to answer, lack of motivation, and sensitive questions. To better accommodate such more realistic underlying mechanisms, we propose a a tree model with four end nodes, not all distinct, for non-response modelling. The Laplace-approximated maximum likelihood estimation for the proposed model is suggested. The validation of the proposed estimation procedure and the advantage of the proposed model over traditional methods are demonstrated in simulations. For illustration, the methodologies are applied to data from the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The analysis shows that the proposed tree model has a better fit to PISA data than other existing models, providing a useful tool to distinguish the sources of non-responses.     

MCMC estimation and some model-fit analysis of multidimensional IRT models

A Bayesian procedure to estimate the three-parameter normal ogive model and a generalization of the procedure to a model with multidimensional ability parameters are presented. The procedure is a generalization of a procedure by Albert (1992) for estimating the two-parameter normal ogive model. The procedure supports analyzing data from multiple populations and incomplete designs. It is shown that restrictions can be imposed on the factor matrix for testing specific hypotheses about the ability structure. The technique is illustrated using simulated and real data. The authors would like to thank Norman Verhelst for his valuable comments and ACT, CITO group and SweSAT for the use of their data.     

Optimal item difficulty for the three-parameter normal ogive response model

In tailored testing, it is important to determine the optimal difficulty of the next item to present to the examinee. This paper shows that the difference that maximizes information for the three-parameter normal ogive response model is approximately 1.7 times the optimal difference –b for the three-parameter logistic model. Under the normal model, calculation of the optimal difficulty for minimizing the Bayes risk is equivalent to maximizing an associated information function.The views expressed herein, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of the Navy.     

A Pearson-Type-VII item response model for assessing person fluctuation

Using Lumsden’s Thurstonian fluctuation model as a starting point, this paper attempts to develop a unidimensional item response theory model intended for binary personality items. Under some additional assumptions, a new model is obtained in which the item characteristic curves are defined by a cumulative Pearson-Type-VII distribution, and the person response curves are two-parameter normal ogives. Procedures for fitting the new model are proposed. Furthermore, the relations between individual fluctuation and scalability are discussed, and a scalability index based on the new model is proposed. All the developments in this paper are illustrated using two empirical examples.     

复杂决策规则下MIRT的分类准确性和分类一致性

介绍多维项目反应理论模型下分类准确性和分类一致性指标, 采用蒙特卡罗方法实现复杂决策规则下指标计算, 并从数学上证明分类准确性指标两类估计量在均匀先验和相同决策规则条件下依概率收敛于同一真值。研究结果表明：分类准确性指标可以比较准确地评价分类结果的准确性; 分类一致性指标可以较好地评价分类结果的重测一致性; 在一定条件下, 基于能力量尺的指标优于基于原始总分的指标; 纵使测验维度增加, 估计精度仍比较好; 随着测验长度和维度间相关增加, 分类准确性和分类一致性更高。指标可以用来评价标准参照测验或计算机分类测验的多种决策规则下分类信度和效度。     

An improved stochastic EM algorithm for large-scale full-information item factor analysis

In this paper, we explore the use of the stochastic EM algorithm (Celeux & Diebolt (1985) Computational Statistics Quarterly, 2, 73) for large-scale full-information item factor analysis. Innovations have been made on its implementation, including an adaptive-rejection-based Gibbs sampler for the stochastic E step, a proximal gradient descent algorithm for the optimization in the M step, and diagnostic procedures for determining the burn-in size and the stopping of the algorithm. These developments are based on the theoretical results of Nielsen (2000, Bernoulli, 6, 457), as well as advanced sampling and optimization techniques. The proposed algorithm is computationally efficient and virtually tuning-free, making it scalable to large-scale data with many latent traits (e.g. more than five latent traits) and easy to use for practitioners. Standard errors of parameter estimation are also obtained based on the missing-information identity (Louis, 1982, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 44, 226). The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through simulation studies and an application to the analysis of the IPIP-NEO personality inventory. Extensions of the proposed algorithm to other latent variable models are discussed.