Assessing interactive causal influence

The discovery of conjunctive causes--factors that act in concert to produce or prevent an effect--has been explained by purely covariational theories. Such theories assume that concomitant variations in observable events directly license causal inferences, without postulating the existence of unobservable causal relations. This article discusses problems with these theories, proposes a causal-power theory that overcomes the problems, and reports empirical evidence favoring the new theory. Unlike earlier models, the new theory derives (a). the conditions under which covariation implies conjunctive causation and (b). functions relating observable events to unobservable conjunctive causal strength. This psychological theory, which concerns simple cases involving 2 binary candidate causes and a binary effect, raises questions about normative statistics for testing causal hypotheses regarding categorical data resulting from discrete variables.     

Driven by power? Probe question and presentation format effects on causal judgment

It has been proposed that causal power (defined as the probability with which a candidate cause would produce an effect in the absence of any other background causes) can be intuitively computed from cause-effect covariation information. Estimation of power is assumed to require a special type of counterfactual probe question, worded to remove potential sources of ambiguity. The present study analyzes the adequacy of such questions to evoke normative causal power estimation. The authors report that judgments to counterfactual probes do not conform to causal power and that they strongly depend on both the probe question wording and the way that covariation information is presented. The data are parsimoniously accounted for by an alternative model of causal judgment, the Evidence Integration rule.     

Revealing hidden covariation detection: evidence for implicit abstraction at study

Four experiments in the brain scans paradigm (P. Lewicki, T. Hill, & I. Sasaki, 1989) investigated hidden covariation detection (HCD). In Experiment 1 HCD was found in an implicit- but not in an explicit-instruction group. In Experiment 2 HCD was impaired by nonholistic perception of stimuli but not by divided attention. In Experiment 3 HCD was eliminated by interspersing stimuli that deviated from the critical covariation. In Experiment 4 a transfer procedure was used. HCD was found with dissimilar test stimuli that preserved the covariation but was almost eliminated with similar stimuli that were neutral as to the covariation. Awareness was assessed both by objective and subjective tests in all experiments. Results suggest that HCD is an effect of implicit rule abstraction and that similarity processing plays only a minor role. HCD might be suppressed by intentional search strategies that induce inappropriate aggregation of stimulus information.     

Formation and use of covariation assessments in the real world

In this study we examined covariation assessments made using real‐world information held by individual participants about an important preventive health behaviour: receiving an influenza vaccine (‘flu shot’). Four hundred and seventy‐seven healthy adult participants completed a questionnaire, indicating both their personal experience and vicarious experience (knowledge of other people's experiences) with the flu shot and the flu. Additionally, participants provided a covariation assessment by indicating how effective they thought the flu shot is in preventing the flu. We examined whether the experience information was related to the covariation assessment, and whether it in turn was related to the decision to receive a flu shot. Our results indicated that people use a simple intuitive strategy to combine their personal experience information. For vicarious experience information, we found evidence for use of a normative strategy, as well as simpler intuitive strategies. Consistent with our hypothesis, both types of experience information were associated with the effectiveness judgement, which was subsequently related to the decision to obtain a flu shot. Practical applications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Research on irrelevance,helplessness, and immunization against helplessness in Spain: Past,present, and future

The main contribution to helplessness research in Spain was on immunization against helplessness and how it was modulated by predictability in animals or attributions in humans. Recent research have focused on factors determining the perception of non-contingency during learned irrelevance and the illusion of control during an uncontrollable experience. Its subsequent effects on covariation learning and the detection of controllability showed the influence of prior beliefs and attentional factors on covariation learning and learned helplessness whose influence should be integrated into current new learning models. This research was supported by a Spanish DGICYT (Dirección General de Investigación Científica y Técnica) grant (PB94-0801).     

Dissociation between judgments and outcome-expectancy measures in covariation learning: a signal detection theory approach

A number of studies using trial-by-trial learning tasks have shown that judgments of covariation between a cue c and an outcome o deviate from normative metrics. Parameters based on trial-by-trial predictions were estimated from signal detection theory (SDT) in a standard causal learning task. Results showed that manipulations of P(c) when contingency (deltaP) was held constant did not affect participants' ability to predict the appearance of the outcome (d') but had a significant effect on response criterion (c) and numerical causal judgments. The association between criterion c and judgment was further demonstrated in 2 experiments in which the criterion was directly manipulated by linking payoffs to the predictive responses made by learners. In all cases, the more liberal the criterion c was, the higher judgments were. The results imply that the mechanisms underlying the elaboration of judgments and those involved in the elaboration of predictive responses are partially dissociable.     

The effect of mood on detection of covariation

The purpose of this research is to explore the effect of mood on the detection of covariation. Predictions were based on an assumption that sad moods facilitate a data-driven information elaboration style and careful data scrutinizing, whereas happy moods predispose individuals toward top-down information processing and decrease the attention given to cognitive tasks. The primary dependent variable involved is the detection of covariation between facial features and personal information and the use of this information for evaluating new target faces. The findings support the view that sad mood facilitates both conscious and unconscious detection of covariation because it increases motivation to engage in the task. Limiting available cognitive resources does not eliminate the effect of mood on the detecting of covariation.     

Intuitive covariation estimation

Six experiments concerned people's ability to estimate the degree and sign of covariation represented in a bivariate distribution of stimuli with which they had just been presented as a series of pairs of stimuli. The stimuli were pairs of numbers, pairs of lines of variable lengths, or word-line pairs. In the latter case, subjects were asked to think of the words in terms of either pleasantness or familiarity; hence, the covariation relationship was between the normative pleasantness or familiarity value of the word and a line of variable length. In the sixth experiment, subjects were presented with two word-line pairs and were asked to access the covariation of both simultaneously. In most cases, the estimates reflected the sign and degree of covariation of the stimuli quite well. The estimates did not reflect accurately the stimulus covariation when the stimuli were numerical and the sign of the correlation of the stimuli was negative. A distinction is made between intuitive and strategic processes in the assessment of covariation.     

The psychophysics of informal covariation assessment: perceiving relatedness against a background of dispersion

The goal of 2 studies was to develop a psychophysical model of informal covariation assessment. The results of Experiment 1 suggest that mean covariation estimates are a function of the ratio of the lengths of the major and minor principal-components axes of correlated bivariate data. In Experiment 2, multidimensional scaling showed that observers perceived (a) the lengths of the major and minor principal-components axes and (b) the slope and dispersion of correlated data. The focal stimulus for mean covariation estimates was the ratio of the major and minor principal-components axes. Moreover, dispersion constituted a background context that lowered estimates somewhat. These results suggested a model of covariation assessment in which mean estimates were mapped onto a product of power transformations of the axis ratio and dispersion of correlated data. This model accounted for 96% of the variability in mean covariation estimates.     

Computer simulations of the Rescorla-Wagner and Pearce-Hall models in conditioning and contingency judgment

A Visual BASIC program, running under Windows 3.1, simulated the predictions of the Rescorla—Wagner (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972) and the Pearce-Hall (Pearce & Hall, 1980) models and compared them to the normative contingency coefficient ΔP (Jenkins & Ward, 1965). The simulations can be applied to a variety of phenomena in human contingency judgment as well as learning and conditioning. Possible simulations include acquisition and extinction of excitatory and inhibitory conditioning, latent inhibition, blocking and overshadowing, or any other associative learning involving two single predictors, their compound, a contextual stimulus, and an outcome. The Pearce-Hall model has never been computerized before. In addition, unique features of this software include extensive use of the graphic user interface, context-sensitive help, verification of trial combinations, toggling of the contextual stimulus from ever-present to mutually exclusive with the discrete predictors, data entry via contingency tables or specifications trial by trial, single or batch randomizations of trial order, and specification of initial values. The associative simulator is both a powerful scientific instrument and a user-friendly teaching aid.     

Covariation in natural causal induction.

The covariation component of everyday causal inference has been depicted, in both cognitive and social psychology as well as in philosophy, as heterogeneous and prone to biases. The models and biases discussed in these domains are analyzed with respect to focal sets: contextually determined sets of events over which covariation is computed. Moreover, these models are compared to our probabilistic contrast model, which specifies causes as first and higher order contrasts computed over events in a focal set. Contrary to the previous depiction of covariation computation, the present assessment indicates that a single normative mechanism--the computation of probabilistic contrasts--underlies this essential component of natural causal induction both in everyday and in scientific situations.     

The Effects of Task Characteristics on Covariation Assessment: The Impact of Accountability and Judgment Frame

The impact of personal accountability and judgment frame on strategies for assessing covariation between two binary variables was examined in two experiments. Using a task designed to discriminate between the use of four different strategies varying in degree of sophistication it was found that subjects accountable to an audience with unknown views displayed use of more complex strategies than subjects who were not accountable. In addition, contrary to a recent attribution model (Cheng & Novick, 1992), subjects were less likely to use the conditional probability rule when the judgment question was framed in terms of causality rather than covariation, and covariation judgments did not always parallel causality judgments.     

Implicit attitude formation through classical conditioning

We sought to demonstrate that attitudes can develop through implicit covariation detection in a new classical conditioning paradigm. In two experiments purportedly about surveillance and vigilance, participants viewed several hundred randomly presented words and images interspersed with critical pairings of valenced unconditioned stimuli (USs) with novel conditioned stimuli (CSs). Attitudes toward the novel objects were influenced by the paired USs: In a surprise evaluation task, the CS paired with positive items was evaluated more positively than the CS paired with negative items. This attitudinal conditioning effect was found using both an explicit measure (Experiments 1 and 2) and an implicit measure (Experiment 2). In a covariation estimation task involving the stimuli presented in the conditioning procedure, participants displayed no explicit memory for the pairings.     

A Gricean approach to the use of consensus and distinctiveness in causal attributions of verbally described interpersonal events

Various causal attribution theories, starting with the covariation model, argue that people use consensus, distinctiveness, and consistency information to causally explain events and behaviors. Yet, the visual presentation of the covariation model in the form of a cube is based on the assumptions that these dimensions generally affect attributions independently, symmetrically, and equally. A Gricean analysis suggests that these assumptions may not generally hold in the case of causal judgments for verbally communicated interpersonal events. We had participants judge the causal role of an actor and a patient in interpersonal events that were described through actor‐verb‐patient sentences under high versus low consensus and distinctiveness (Studies 1, 2, and 3) or without such information (Studies 2 and 3). As predicted by Gricean logic, consensus and distinctiveness effects on causality ratings depended on the target whose causal role participants assessed, on the information about the alternative dimension, and, most consistently, on consensus and distinctiveness being high versus low. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Playing the game: when group success is more important than downgrading deviants

Partisan respondents evaluated a potential party leader (Study 1) or an ingroup political candidate (Study 2) who expressed normative or deviant opinions against a backdrop of public opinion that was either supportive of, or hostile toward, the ingroup's traditional beliefs (Study 1) or the normative ingroup position on a specific issue (Study 2). Across both studies, high identifiers gave stronger support to a normative candidate over a deviant candidate when public opinion was with the group, but not when public opinion was against the group. Under the latter conditions, high identifiers instead upgraded the deviant candidate. Additional analyses revealed this pattern of differential support for normative and deviant candidates among high identifiers appeared to be related to strategic considerations—specifically, the candidate's perceived chances of gaining public support and being elected. Among low identifiers, support for normative and deviant candidates was less affected by the broader context of public opinion, and was not related to such strategic considerations. These results demonstrate that responses to deviance depend on the broader context in which deviance occurs. Deviance can, at times, be a way through which groups achieve important goals. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing an Adaptationist Theory of Trait Covariation: Relative Bargaining Power as a Common Calibrator of an Interpersonal Syndrome

This article provides the first test of an adaptationist ‘common calibration’ theory to explain the origins of trait covariation, which holds that (i) personality traits are often facultatively calibrated in response to cues that ancestrally predicted the reproductive payoffs of different trait levels and (ii) distinct traits that are calibrated on the basis of common input cues will exhibit consistent patterns of covariation. This theory is applied to explain the covariation within a ‘personality syndrome’ encompassing various interpersonal trait dimensions (e.g. extraversion, emotionality and attachment styles). Specifically, it is hypothesized that these traits are inter‐correlated because each is calibrated in response to relative bargaining power (RBP)—a joint function of one's ability to benefit others and harm others. Path analyses from a correlational study compellingly supported this theoretical model: Objective and self‐perceived measures of RBP‐enhancing phenotypic features (physical attractiveness and physical strength) influenced an internal regulatory variable indexing RBP (i.e. self‐perceived RBP), which in turn had robust effects on each of the focal personality traits. Moreover, in support of the theory's core postulate, controlling for self‐perceived RBP greatly reduced the covariation within the interpersonal syndrome. These novel findings illustrate the promise of an evolutionary psychological approach to elucidating trait covariation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategy selection in causal reasoning: when beliefs and covariation collide.

The present study investigated how people combine covariation information (Cheng & Novick, 1990, 1992) with pre-existing beliefs (White, 1989) when evaluating causal hypotheses. Three experiments, using both within- and between-subjects designs, found that the use of covariation information and beliefs interacted, such that the effects of covariation were larger when people assessed hypotheses about believable than about unbelievable causal candidates. In Experiment 2, this interaction was observed when participants made judgments in stages (e.g., first evaluating covariation information about a causal candidate and then evaluating the believability of a candidate), as well as when the information was presented simultaneously. Experiment 3 demonstrated that this pattern was also reflected in participants' metacognitive judgments: Participants indicated that they weighed covariation information more heavily for believable than unbelievable candidates. Finally, Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated the presence of individual differences in the use of covariation- and belief-based cues. That is, individuals who tended to base their causality judgments primarily on belief were less likely to make use of covariation information and vice versa. The findings were most consistent with White's (1989) causal power theory, which suggests that covariation information is more likely to be considered relevant to believable than unbelievable causes.     

Not all automatic associations are created equal: How implicit normative evaluations are distinct from implicit attitudes and uniquely predict meaningful behavior

We propose a new construct (implicit normative evaluations) that purports to measure automatic associations about societal evaluations. We develop a new measure of this construct based on a modification of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and describe how it is related to but not redundant with implicit attitudes and explicit normative evaluations. Study 1 provided evidence that implicit normative evaluations and implicit attitudes uniquely predicted evaluations measured by the traditional IAT. Study 2 demonstrated that Asian-Canadian immigrants' implicit normative evaluations toward older people became more negative the longer they were in Canada. Study 3 found that engineering students' (both men and women) implicit normative evaluations toward female engineers became more negative as they were exposed to engineering and that for women these negative normative evaluations predicted their intention to drop out of engineering. Study 4 demonstrated that implicit normative evaluations predicted the speed at which participants decide to “shoot” an African Canadian target on a shooter bias task (Correll, Park, Judd, & Wittenbrink, 2002). Finally, in Study 5, an experimental manipulation of an audience's reaction to racist jokes targeting people from the Middle East affected implicit normative evaluations about this group and that these implicit normative evaluations in turn affected discrimination. The implications of these results for the importance of social influence and culture in shaping thoughts and behavior are discussed.     

Exploring the role of personal normative beliefs in the theory of reasoned action: The problem of discriminating between alternative path models

In the 1967 version of Fishbein's model of the attitude-behaviour relationship a distinction was drawn between personal and social normative beliefs. Personal normative beliefs were later removed from the model on the grounds that they act as an alternative measure of behavioural intention. It is argued that the existing literature does not support this hypothesis and data is presented which indicates that personal normative beliefs are not an alternative measure of behavioural intention. It is argued that personal normative beliefs can be reconceptualized as measuring a person's ideal behavioural intention; a variable which mediates the relationship between attitudes, subjective norms and intentions, Evidence is presented which supports this hypothesis, but it is further demonstrated that an alternative model can be fitted to the present data. It is argued that it is impossible to discriminate between these alternative models on the basis of path analytic techniques, and the implications that this finding has for attitude research are discussed.     

Anger toward God: social-cognitive predictors, prevalence, and links with adjustment to bereavement and cancer

A recent model of collective action distinguishes 2 distinct pathways: an emotional pathway whereby anger in response to injustice motivates action and an efficacy pathway where the belief that issues can be solved collectively increases the likelihood that group members take action (van Zomeren, Spears, Fischer, & Leach, 2004). Research supporting this model has, however, focused entirely on relatively normative actions such as participating in demonstrations. We argue that the relations between emotions, efficacy, and action differ for more extreme, nonnormative actions and propose (a) that nonnormative actions are often driven by a sense of low efficacy and (b) that contempt, which, unlike anger, entails psychological distancing and a lack of reconciliatory intentions, predicts nonnormative action. These ideas were tested in 3 survey studies examining student protests against tuition fees in Germany (N = 332), Indian Muslims' action support in relation to ingroup disadvantage (N = 156), and British Muslims' responses to British foreign policy (N = 466). Results were generally supportive of predictions and indicated that (a) anger was strongly related to normative action but overall unrelated or less strongly related to nonnormative action, (b) contempt was either unrelated or negatively related to normative action but significantly positively predicted nonnormative action, and (c) efficacy was positively related to normative action and negatively related to nonnormative action. The implications of these findings for understanding and dealing with extreme intergroup phenomena such as terrorism are discussed.