Problem–Problem Solver Characteristics Affectingthe Calibration of Judgments

The purpose of this paper is to examine factors that affect the calibration of judgments by systematically comparing experts’ judgments to novices’ when solving a complex, real-world problem that varies in its initial characteristics. Calibration in this context refers to the proportion of times decision makers provide a range about their best estimates that includes the actual outcome. We found that experts specify a narrower range and provide more accurate best estimates than novices. But their tighter ranges are not justified by their greater accuracy: they are less likely to encompass the actual outcome than are novices. However, this effect is attenuated when solving more complex problems. Novices apparently underestimate the complexity of difficult problems, hence the accuracy of their best estimates decreases as does the width of their ranges, resulting in worse calibration. The performance of experts was not significantly different across problem solving conditions. Both groups provided asymmetrical ranges about their best estimates, which suggests they account for the effect of subproblem dependencies.     

The Problem of Patriotism: A Psychoanalytic and Theological Analysis

In this article, I examine patriotism from psychoanalytic and theological perspectives, arguing that it is a deeply problematic form of love and devotion. After providing a brief overview of the discourse vis-à-vis patriotism, I depict the characteristics of a dominant form of patriotism (self-state) in the U.S. Given this, I argue that, while patriotism has a variety of forms, the most prevalent form tends toward tragic consequences and it is this tragic tendency that I depict from psychoanalytic and theological perspectives. From a psychoanalytic perspective, the extant form of patriotism in the U.S. represents a self-state that signifies an idealized, omnipotent, and imaginary identification, which is accompanied by and contingent upon a devaluation of the Other. Moreover, the dominant form of patriotic self-states is secured by weak dissociation, omnipotent thinking and, in most cases, a collapse of the symbolic equation. From a Christian theological perspective, patriotism signifies absolutizing the relative and contingent. This form of idolatry manifests a distortion of reason and will, which contributes to corrupted and corrupting forms of love and devotion.     

The Problem of Many Hands: Climate Change as an Example

In some situations in which undesirable collective effects occur, it is very hard, if not impossible, to hold any individual reasonably responsible. Such a situation may be referred to as the problem of many hands. In this paper we investigate how the problem of many hands can best be understood and why, and when, it exactly constitutes a problem. After analyzing climate change as an example, we propose to define the problem of many hands as the occurrence of a gap in the distribution of responsibility that may be considered morally problematic. Whether a gap is morally problematic, we suggest, depends on the reasons why responsibility is distributed. This, in turn, depends, at least in part, on the sense of responsibility employed, a main distinction being that between backward-looking and forward-looking responsibility.     

The Problem of Temporal Unity: an Examination of the Problem and Case Study on Ersatzer Presentism

Philosophia - This paper elaborates the problem of temporal unity for dynamic presentism and diagnoses the source of that problem in the dynamic presentist’s discarding the traditional...     

“自杀”：一个重要的伦理问题

自杀现已成为人类死亡十大原因之一 ,而且呈现出低龄化的趋势 ,越来越引起社会的关注。因而 ,从政治、经济、社会、疾病、文化等多视角来寻找自杀的外部原因 ,对探究这个重要的伦理问题是有益的。     

家庭早期的累积风险对青少年内化问题的影响

基于累积风险框架,检验个人素质和社会互动在家庭早期的累积风险影响青少内化问题上的相对贡献以及中介作用。751名青少年完成Achenbach青少年自评量表、自我效能感问卷、感恩问卷、个人主动性量表、领悟社会支持量表的测试以及累积家庭风险问卷。结果发现: (1)个人素质与社会互动在家庭早期的累积风险影响青少年内化问题过程中起着平行中介作用;(2)社会互动的间接效应大于个人素质的间接效应;(3)家庭早期的累积风险对内化问题存在直接影响。个人素质和社会互动在家庭早期风险影响内化问题的内在过程并非相互竞争,而是作为一种平行中介在运作。研究结果有助于揭示家庭早期的累积风险影响内化问题的内在作用。     

意义的非事实论与规范性——规则遵循问题的语义分析

规则遵循悖论(the rule-following paradox)及其相关问题源于维特根斯坦的《哲学研究》,它是后期维特根斯坦论述语言的运用及其意义方面的一个重要议题。克里普克在《维特根斯坦论规则和私人语言》中对该问题进行了系统阐释并提出了怀疑论解决方案。在这一解决方案中,他暂且接受意义归因中语义事实的缺失和怀疑论论证的结论,同时拒绝扩展这种论证而导致彻底的意义怀疑论。     

The Problem of Behaviour Change: From Social Norms to an Ingroup Focus

Social norms are of increasing interest to public policy experts and those conducting behaviour change interventions (e.g. safe driving, recycling). While there is agreement that social norms play a central role in explaining behaviour, such consensus is lacking when it comes to explaining the process through which this occurs. Economics, social marketing and political science focus on individual self‐interest and goal satisfaction and social (dis)approval. In contrast social psychology also incorporates collective interests through its analysis of social identity and ingroup processes. To fully understand behaviour change, it is argued that greater engagement is needed with the links between shifts in social identity, and ingroup norms. As definitions of who “we” are shift, so too does what “we” do. Implications for behaviour change interventions are discussed.     

The Nature and Predictors of Undercontrolled and Internalizing Problem Trajectories Across Early Childhood

Using growth curve modeling, trajectories of undercontrolled (oppositional, irritable, inattentive and overactive behaviors) and internalizing (worried, sad and fearful) problems from 18 months to 4.5 years were studied in a population based sample of 921 Norwegian children. At the population level, undercontrolled problems decreased and internalizing problems increased with increasing age. Child temperament and family factors present at 18 months predicted 43% of the stability and 20% of the linear changes in undercontrolled problems and 30% of the stability and 7% of the linear changes in internalizing problems. Persisting effects of child and family factors from 18 month were found on the two problem dimensions over and above the impact of changes in the same risk factors. Lower initial level of partner support and higher initial level of child emotionality predicted higher slope of undercontrolled problems and higher initial level of family stress predicted higher slope for internalizing problems. As expected, time to time change (t1 to t2 and t2 to t3) in risk factors predicted time to time change in problem scores as well. The study shows the significance of early emerging internalizing and undercontrolled problems, the need to consider their pathways separately from very young ages, lasting effects of early experiences, and the importance of a dynamic approach to the analysis of risk.     

道德证词及其问题探析

证词是我们了解世界的一个重要途径,但关于道德证词能否作为我们道德知识的来源或根据,哲学家们却有争议。一些哲学家认为,我们可以依赖非道德证词,但不能依赖道德证词,虽然道德证词能够传递道德知识或正确的道德信念,因为存在一个规范使得依赖道德证词是有问题的,这个规范就是:道德主体应该根据道德理解行动。另一些哲学家则认为,关于道德证词和非道德证词的"非对称性"观点是错误的,道德证词与非道德证词一样,完全没有问题。事实上,某些情况下依赖道德证词是有问题的--道德理解问题,但道德证词不比非道德证词更有问题,或者说,非道德证词与道德证词有同样的问题。     

中医理论变革：一个非明确限定性问题

以“传统中医理论如何变革”为中医务虚研究的核心问题,并从思维心理学的角度探讨了解决这一非明确限定性问题的三个阶段在准备阶段应理解中医理论的存在有双重意义,故应有两种问题表征;在产生解决办法阶段提议可借鉴西方心理学的流派发展倾向来认知中医变革的方法倾向,后又强调了语言形式对中医理论思维的重要影响,指出应当以语言学知识和临床实际去重建中医学术语言的“语义场”,参照信息加工理论,努力减少“编码”失误;在问题解决的评定阶段,强调由于评定本身就比较困难,所以在应对反馈意见时应坚持革新的信念,及时校正算子。     

青少年早期内化问题的稳定性及其与母亲教养的关系

通过对502名11岁城市青少年为期2年的追踪调查,考察了青少年早期内化问题发展的稳定性及母亲教养对1年后青少年内化问题的预测.结果发现:(1)青少年早期的内化问题具有较高的稳定性,与男青少年相比,女青少年保持较高的内化问题水平;(2)母亲控制惩罚教养可以正向预测1年后男青少年的内化问题,母亲温情引导可以负向预测女青少年的内化问题.青少年先前的内化问题对母亲教养与其1年后内化问题之间关系的调节作用存在性别差异:对于先前内化问题水平较高的男青少年而言,母亲较高的温情引导和控制惩罚教养正向预测其1年后的内化问题;对于先前内化问题水平较高的女青少年而言,母亲较多的温情引导则负向预测其1年后的内化问题.     

十文钱问题：中国一古老推理错觉问题初探

首先简要阐述了中国一古老推理问题——十文钱问题的学术价值,然后在研究1中通过调查法对其进行了研究。结果发现,该问题应该属于典型的推理错觉问题,且其错觉产生的原因可能是运用单式记账方式进行推理的结果;研究2和研究3分别通过口语报告法和实验法获得了支持这一假设的证据,但同时也发现记账方式问题可能也并不是问题的全部,其中财会事项发生的顺序所形成的循环结构可能也是问题困难原因之一,这一假设在研究4中得到了支持     

Evidence for the Continuity of Early Problem Behaviors: Application of a Developmental Model

Evidence of the continuity of early problem behaviors in young girls and boys was examined developmentally. Data were gathered on 104 mother-child dyads from low-income families when children were between 1 and 5 years of age. Difficult temperament, aggression, and noncompliance from 12 to 24 months, and externalizing and internalizing problems at 36 and 60 months, were assessed. The results provide evidence for the continuity of early behavioral and emotional problems and support for the early differentiation between internalizing and externalizing problems. Implications of the current findings for prevention efforts are presented.     

The Role of an Incubation Period in Creative Problem Solving

ABSTRACT

This experimental study tested the spreading-activation hypothesis that an incubation period helps to sensitize problem solvers to relevant concepts. The study also tested the selective forgetting hypothesis that an incubation period helps to desensitize problem solvers to irrelevant concepts. Chinese Chess GO players, 28 experts and 29 novices, solved 18 remote association tasks (RAT) and lexical decision tasks (LDTs) under immediate, rest, and incubation conditions. After each RAT, a set of LDTs incorporating the RAT solution and the irrelevant concept were presented, either immediately, or after a 2-min delay, or after a 2-min delay filled with incubation tasks. The findings of the study support the spreading activation hypothesis and suggest that spreading activation occurs only in a fixated mind. No support was found for the selective forgetting hypothesis.     

Reflexivity and Interpretive Sociology: The Case of Analysis and the Problem of Nihilism

This paper addresses the problem of reflexivity in modern social inquiry in general and in sociology in particular. This problem is inherited from Weber's very conception of sociology, is transformed by phenomenology and ethnomethodology, deepened by the linguistic turn of hermeneutics and Wittgenstein's later philosophy, and has been the central concern of the work of Alan Blum and Peter McHugh. The issues and spectres raised by reflexivity are methodological arbitrariness, the need to take responsibility for one's own talk (and the cultural assumptions embedded in talk) and, finally, the deep fear of nihilism – the sense that with regard to inquiry (along with everything else in the world) nothing matters. As such, reflexivity raises the most fundamental issue that can be raised for modern social inquiry. Through an oriented interpretation of the work of Blum and McHugh and other contemporary social theorists (particularly Gadamer and Arendt), this paper works through what a dialectical engagement with these issues look like.     

Linda问题:"齐当别"抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理.Tversky和Kahneman(1983)使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因.然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清.该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li(1994,2004)提出的不确定情形下决策理论--"齐当别"抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释.     

Prevention of Problem Behavior Through Annual Family Check-Ups in Early Childhood: Intervention Effects From Home to Early Elementary School

This randomized intervention trial examined the effects of yearly Family Check-Ups (FCUs) and tailored parent management training on parent report of problem behavior from age 2 to 5 years and teacher report of oppositional behavior at age 7.5. A multiethnic risk sample of 731 families in 3 distinct geographical settings who were receiving assistance from the Women, Infants, and Children Nutritional Supplement (WIC) program were randomly assigned to a yearly FCU. Intention to treat (ITT) analyses were used to examine overall intervention effects, and complier average causal effect (CACE) modeling was used to examine the effects of annual intervention engagement in the FCU on parent reports of child problem behavior from age 2 to 5 and teacher reports of problem behavior at age 7.5. ITT intervention effects were found regarding parent report at ages 2 to 5 and teacher report at age 7.5, indicating less growth in problem behavior for children in the intervention group than for those in the control group. CACE modeling of intervention engagement revealed that the effect sizes on parent- and teacher-reported problem behavior increased as a function of the number of yearly FCUs caregivers participated in. Findings suggest that embedding yearly FCU services within the context of social, health, and educational services in early childhood can potentially prevent early-onset trajectories of antisocial behavior. The increases in effect size with successive FCU engagement underscores the importance of a motivational approach to parenting support among high-risk families.     

Linda问题：“齐当别”抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理。Tversky和Kahneman（1983）使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因。然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清。该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li（1994,2004）提出的不确定情形下决策理论——“齐当别”抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释