Mutual forbearance,the representativeness heuristic and airline safety

This paper investigates the impact of airline crashes on fares and enplanement over the period 1984–1997. Empirical evidence suggests that none of the large carriers seem to initiate price wars with other large rivals involved in crashes, suggesting mutual forbearance. In contrast, small carriers raise their fares in response to small rivals’ crashes, perhaps commanding higher premiums due to their perceived higher safety level and in anticipation of consumer switching. Further estimation results suggest that only a small fraction of passengers form perceptions about crashes according to the representativeness heuristic. Moreover, large rivals’ crashes are associated with no consumer switching across other large carriers but are associated with enplanement losses for small carriers. The findings suggest that consumer perceptions raise important concerns about the challenges that carriers, especially the smaller ones, may face in depicting their true safety level to consumers whose vision may have been blurred by representativeness bias. Nevertheless, although consumers do not necessarily treat crashes as random events, large carriers may breathe a sigh of relief about the extent of consumer panic and overreaction.     

Exemplars in the mist: the cognitive substrate of the representativeness heuristic

The idea that people often make probability judgments by a heuristic short-cut, the representativeness heuristic, has been widely influential, but also criticized for being vague. The empirical trademark of the heuristic is characteristic deviations between normative probabilities and judgments (e.g., the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect). In this article the authors contrast two hypotheses concerning the cognitive substrate of the representativeness heuristic, the prototype hypothesis (Kahneman & Frederick, 2002) and the exemplar hypothesis (Juslin & Persson, 2002), in a task especially designed to elicit representativeness effects. Computational modelling and an experiment reveal that representativeness effects are evident early in training and persist longer in a more complex task environment and that the data are best accounted for by a model implementing the exemplar hypothesis.     

The entertainment value of conspiracy theories

Many citizens around the globe believe conspiracy theories. Why are conspiracy theories so appealing? Here, we propose that conspiracy theories elicit intense emotions independent of emotional valence. People therefore find conspiracy theories entertaining – that is, narratives that people perceive as interesting, exciting, and attention-grabbing – and such entertainment appraisals are positively associated with belief in them. Five studies supported these ideas. Participants were exposed to either a conspiratorial or a non-conspiratorial text about the Notre Dame fire (Study 1) or the death of Jeffrey Epstein (preregistered Study 2). The conspiratorial text elicited stronger entertainment appraisals and intense emotions (independent of emotional valence) than the non-conspiratorial text; moreover, entertainment appraisals mediated the effects of the manipulation on conspiracy beliefs. Study 3 indicated that participants endorsed stronger conspiracy beliefs when an election event was described in an entertaining rather than a boring manner. Subsequent findings revealed that both organisational (Study 4) and societal conspiracy beliefs (Study 5) are positively associated with sensation seeking – a trait characterised by a preference for exciting and intense experiences. We conclude that one reason why people believe conspiracy theories is because they find them entertaining.     

Sensation-seeking and selection of entertainment

The relationship between entertainment activity preference and sensation-seeking was investigated by survey and actual movie selection and viewing. Cardiac rate and rate change was monitored during movie selection and viewing. High sensation-seeking (HSS) females reported preferences for activities centered about alcohol, sexually-explicit materials and ‘rock’ music. HSS males reported preferences for sexually-explicit materials and news/documentary reports. Low sensation-seeking (LSS) males and females reported preferences for the musical stage, theatrical drama and comedy, and romantic/dramatic novels. HSS males and HSS females allotted high proportions of viewing time to an ‘action’ movie, and changed channels more frequently than LSS. The indices of cardiac response utilized in this study were unrelated to movie viewing activities, a result which does not support the ‘optimal level of arousal’ view of sensation-seeking proposed by Zuckerman (1979).     

Simultaneous optimization of factor assessibility and representativeness

P. M. Bentler has shown that Rao's canonical factor analysis is in effect a psychometric analysis, leading to factors that are maximally assessible from the data. He contrasts this with Kaiser and Caffrey's alpha factor analysis that leads to factors that maximally represent the true factors in the content domain. Noting the problems associated with factors that may be highly assessible, but not very representative, or vice versa, Bentler suggests the need for a technique that would, insofar as possible, be optimal with respect to both criteria. Such a technique is presented here, and is shown to resolve into a traditional scaling method, which in turn acquires a richer psychometric interpretation.The author would like to gratefully acknowledge support for this research from the Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis (Indiana University) and Esco Research Associates. The paper benefitted substantially from the criticisms and suggestions of an anonymous referee.     

Perceptual load in sport and the heuristic value of the perceptual load paradigm in examining expertise-related perceptual-cognitive adaptations

In two experiments, we transferred perceptual load theory to the dynamic field of team sports and tested the predictions derived from the theory using a novel task and stimuli. We tested a group of college students (N = 33) and a group of expert team sport players (N = 32) on a general perceptual load task and a complex, soccer-specific perceptual load task in order to extend the understanding of the applicability of perceptual load theory and further investigate whether distractor interference may differ between the groups, as the sport-specific processing task may not exhaust the processing capacity of the expert participants. In both, the general and the specific task, the pattern of results supported perceptual load theory and demonstrates that the predictions of the theory also transfer to more complex, unstructured situations. Further, perceptual load was the only determinant of distractor processing, as we neither found expertise effects in the general perceptual load task nor the sport-specific task. We discuss the heuristic utility of using response-competition paradigms for studying both general and domain-specific perceptual-cognitive adaptations.     

Heading judgments in minimal environments: the value of a heuristic when invariants are rare

Observers made systematic heading judgments in two experiments simulating their translation through an environment with only two trees. When those trees converged or decelerated apart, observers tended to follow the invariant information and make heading judgments outside the near member of the pair. When those trees accelerated apart, however, observers tended to follow the heuristic information and make judgments outside the far member, although this result was tempered by the angular separation between the trees and their relative acceleration. The simultaneous existence and use of invariants and heuristics are discussed in terms of different metatheoretical approaches to perception.     

The inspired time traveler: examining the implications of nostalgic entertainment experiences for two-factor models of entertainment

ABSTRACT

Two studies investigated the characteristics of nostalgic entertainment experiences. A survey (Study 1) asked American undergraduates to report their cognitive and affective reactions during a recent entertainment experience that they deemed nostalgic, meaningful, or pleasurable. Results indicated that nostalgic experiences often occurred after exposure to familiar media content (e.g., beloved children’s shows). Although these experiences were affectively similar to both pleasurable entertainment experiences (in terms of enjoyment) and meaningful entertainment experiences (in terms of mixed affect), they differed in the focus of their associated cognitions (i.e., reflection on the self in the past and over time). A follow-up experiment (Study 2) demonstrated that exposure to familiar children’s shows (rather than unfamiliar children’s shows or meaningful film trailers) induced nostalgic reactions in adults ranging in age from 19 to 47. The implications of these findings for current two-factor models of entertainment are discussed.     

Hypotheses and Inductive Predictions

This paper studies the use of hypotheses schemes in generatinginductive predictions. After discussing Carnap–Hintikka inductive logic,hypotheses schemes are defined and illustrated with two partitions. Onepartition results in the Carnapian continuum of inductive methods, the otherresults in predictions typical for hasty generalization. Following theseexamples I argue that choosing a partition comes down to making inductiveassumptions on patterns in the data, and that by choosing appropriately anyinductive assumption can be made. Further considerations on partitions makeclear that they do not suggest any solution to the problem of induction.Hypotheses schemes provide the tools for making inductive assumptions, but theyalso reveal the need for such assumptions.     

Statistical judgement: A further test of the representativeness construct

Kahneman and Tversky's (1972) construct of ‘representativeness’ as a mediator of statistical judgements has been subjected to several recent criticisms. The present study allows test of the hypothesis that individuals differ in their use of the representativeness heuristic. Tasks are devised which permit measure of two types of judgemental error attributed to use of the heuristic. One is a misperception of Bernouilli sequences, in which subjects expect sequences to have shorter run lengths than would actually occur by chance. The other error is a tendency to give insufficient weighting to the evidence of larger samples. The tasks were administered in two experiments by on-line computer. Characteristic errors of both sorts are found in two experiments, but in neither case was there any evidence of a correlation between them. It appears, then, that even a modified form of the representativeness hypothesis, that might be reconciled with other critiques, is lacking in empirical support.     

Indeterminacy of the isomorphism heuristic

Summary We are less prone today than in Köhler's time to believe in a unified science. The Gestalt program could therefore safely abandon the psychophysical isomorphism heuristic if it wished to. Indeterminacy of the heuristic might be a reason for doing so. The determination of the components involved in the isomorphism of the visual field as well as the electrocortical events would have to occur simultaneously. In the Gestalt program, however, components are determined by their position in the whole. They can therefore not be compared in different contexts, so no independent test of a candidate heuristic is possible.     

The clinical representativeness of couple therapy outcome research

The clinical representativeness of outcome studies is defined as the generalizability of recruitment processes, assessment/diagnostic procedures, treatment protocols, and therapeutic results from research settings to naturalistic treatment settings. The main goal of the present study was to examine the clinical representativeness of couple therapy in outcome studies. The data set was formed by 50 published clinical trials, including 34 couple therapy outcome studies for marital distress (CTMD) and 16 couple therapy outcome studies for comorbid relational and mental disorders (CTMD + C). The present findings showed that, overall, the clinical representativeness of couple therapy outcome studies is only fair (i.e., the mean global score is slightly lower than the midpoint of the rating scale used to assess representativeness). CTMD + C studies fared better than CTMD studies on many dimensions of clinical relevance. Studies in which pretherapy training was less intensive (for CTMD studies only), treatment was less structured, and therapists were more experienced showed larger effect sizes than those in which such was not the case.     

Knowledge Attributions and Behavioral Predictions

Recent work has shown that knowledge attributions affect how people think others should behave, more so than belief attributions do. This paper reports two experiments providing evidence that (a) knowledge attributions also affect behavioral predictions more strongly than belief attributions do, and (b) knowledge attributions facilitate faster behavioral predictions than belief attributions do. Thus, knowledge attributions play multiple critical roles in social cognition, guiding judgments about how people should and will behave.     

Empirical tests of the recognition heuristic

The recognition heuristic postulates that individuals should choose a recognized object more often than an unrecognized one whenever recognition is related to the criterion. This behavior has been described as a one‐cue, noncompensatory decision‐making strategy. This claim and other assumptions were tested in four experiments using paired‐comparison tasks with cities and other geographical objects. The main results were (1) that the recognized object was chosen more often than the unrecognized one when the recognition cue was valid; (2) that participants' behavior did not reflect the recognition validity of their own knowledge; (3) that a less‐is‐more effect (i.e., better performance with less knowledge) was either absent or of only small size; and (4) that judgments were influenced by further knowledge, which could even compensate for the recognition cue. In sum, the recognition cue represents an important piece of knowledge in paired comparisons, but apparently not the only one. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic by children

Two studies are discussed in which children's use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic was considered. Study one is a modification of the classic multiplication task devised by Kahneman and Tversky (1974). Results indicate that children in grades 4, 6, 8 and adults are affected by the order of numbers provided in an addition task. In addition, younger children display the tendency to over adjust, yielding higher estimates. In the second study, third and fifth grade participants and adults were provided anchors and estimated the number of jellybeans in a glass container. A main effect for condition is indicated, with lower anchors leading to lower estimates. Results of both studies are consistent with the an anchoring and adjustment explanation.