Two new cases of rank reversals when the AHP and some of its additive variants are used that do not occur with the multiplicative AHP

Many researchers have long observed some cases in which certain ranking irregularities can occur when the original analytic hierarchy process (AHP), or some of its variants, are used. This paper presents two new categories of ranking irregularities which defy common intuition. These ranking irregularities occur when one decomposes a decision problem into a set of smaller problems each defined on two alternatives and the same criteria as the original problem. These irregularities are possible when the original AHP, or some of its additive variants, are used. Computational experiments on random test problems and an examination of some real‐life case studies suggest that these ranking irregularities are dramatically likely to occur. This paper also proves that these ranking irregularities are not possible when a multiplicative variant of the AHP is used. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal selection of E‐learning websites using multiattribute decision‐making approaches

A computational quantitative model based on weighted Euclidean distance‐based approximation and complex proportional assessment has been developed for the evaluation, selection, and ranking of various E‐learning websites in ascending or descending order based on their Euclidean distance value from the optimal website. The E‐learning website with rank 1 is considered the optimal selection on the particular dataset under consideration. The problem of the E‐learning website Selection, Evaluation and Ranking is modeled as a multiattribute decision‐making problem in which various interrelated attributes collectively termed as ranking criteria are identified to make the evaluation of available alternatives. In this research, 5 most popular E‐learning websites related to the C programming language for the software development have been considered to show the utility of developed model. Further, the concept of methodology validation strengthens this research by comparing the obtained results with the existing multiattribute decision‐making approach as analytical hierarchy process method.     

System JLZ – rational default reasoning by minimal ranking constructions

We present a powerful quasi-probabilistic default formalism for graded defaults based on a well-motivated canonical ranking construction procedure, System JLZ. It implements the minimal construction paradigm and verifies the major inference principles and inheritance desiderata, including rational monotony for propositions and structured cumulativity for default conditionals. With help from a structured ranking semantics for defaults, it also avoids some drawbacks of semi-qualitative entropy maximization and other competing accounts.     

The Selection of Multiattribute Decision Making Methods for Scholarship Student Selection

Selecting scholarship students from a number of competing candidates is a complex decision making process, in which multiple selection criteria have to be considered simultaneously. Multiattribute decision making (MADM) has proven to be an effective approach for ranking or selecting one or more alternatives from a finite number of alternatives with respect to multiple, usually conflicting criteria. This paper formulates the scholarship student selection process as an MADM problem, and presents suitable compensatory methods for solving the problem. A new empirical validity procedure is developed to deal with the inconsistent ranking problem caused by different MADM methods. The procedure aims at selecting a ranking outcome which has a minimum expected value loss, when true attribute weights are not known. An empirical study of a scholarship student selection problem in an Australian university is conducted to illustrate how the selection procedure works.     

The role of objects in perceptual grouping.

Perceptual organization can be viewed as the selection of the best or "most reasonable" parse of a given scene. However, the principles that determine which interpretation is most reasonable have resisted most attempts to define them formally. This paper summarizes a formal theory of human perceptual organization, called minimal model theory, in which the best interpretation of a given scene is expressed as the formally minimal interpretation in a well-defined space of possible interpretations. We then focus specifically on the role of types of grouping units, in particular the difficult notion of "object". Although grouping is often thought of as the process of dividing the image into objects, most research in perceptual grouping actually focuses on simpler types of units, such as contours and surfaces. Minimal model theory characterizes grouping units at a logical level, demonstrating how formal assumptions about units induce the observer to place a certain preference ranking on interpretations. The theory is then applied to the more subtle problem of objects, culminating in a definition for objects that is formally rigorous but at the same time captures some of the flexibility of human intuitions about objects.     

A new rank correlation coefficient with application to the consensus ranking problem

The consensus ranking problem has received much attention in the statistical literature. Given m rankings of n objects the objective is to determine a consensus ranking. The input rankings may contain ties, be incomplete, and may be weighted. Two solution concepts are discussed, the first maximizing the average weighted rank correlation of the solution ranking with the input rankings and the second minimizing the average weighted Kemeny–Snell distance. A new rank correlation coefficient called τ_x is presented which is shown to be the unique rank correlation coefficient which is equivalent to the Kemeny‐Snell distance metric. The new rank correlation coefficient is closely related to Kendall's tau but differs from it in the way ties are handled. It will be demonstrated that Kendall's τ_b is flawed as a measure of agreement between weak orderings and should no longer be used as a rank correlation coefficient. The use of τ_x in the consensus ranking problem provides a more mathematically tractable solution than the Kemeny–Snell distance metric because all the ranking information can be summarized in a single matrix. The methods described in this paper allow analysts to accommodate the fully general consensus ranking problem with weights, ties, and partial inputs. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling partially cross‐classified multilevel data

This article proposes an approach to modelling partially cross‐classified multilevel data where some of the level‐1 observations are nested in one random factor and some are cross‐classified by two random factors. Comparisons between a proposed approach to two other commonly used approaches which treat the partially cross‐classified data as either fully nested or fully cross‐classified are completed with a simulation study. Results show that the proposed approach demonstrates desirable performance in terms of parameter estimates and statistical inferences. Both the fully nested model and the fully cross‐classified model suffer from biased estimates of some variance components and statistical inferences of some fixed effects. Results also indicate that the proposed model is robust against cluster size imbalance.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ceteris</Emphasis>-<Emphasis Type="Italic">Paribus</Emphasis> Qualifiers

Antecedent-strengthening, a trivially valid inference of classical logic of the form: P → Q ? (P & R) → Q, has a counterpart in everyday reasoning that often fails. A plausible solution to the problem involves assuming an implicit ceteris paribus (CP) qualifier that can be explicated as an additional conjunct in the antecedent of the premise. The qualifier can be explicated as ‘everything else relevant remains unchanged’ or alternatively as ‘nothing interferes’. The qualifier appears most prominently in the context of the discussion of laws in the sciences, where these laws are often expressed with a CP qualifier. From an analysis of the qualifier’s role in the problem of antecedent-strengthening, we can learn more about CP qualifiers in general and in their application to the laws used in the sciences.     

Examining the validity of scores from an instrument designed to measure metacognition of problem solving

The authors' purpose in this study was to gather evidence on the validity of scores on an instrument designed to evaluate levels of metacognition in problem solving--Swanson's 15-item metacognition questionnaire (1990, 1993). Forty-three participants took part in this study: 21 professors and 22 graduate students from several Western and Midwestern campuses in the fields of psychology and educational psychology. A Kendall Coefficient of concordance (W) was performed to determine the consistency of ranked responses for professors, students, and both groups combined, and to determine whether their responses matched those of the scoring key for the instrument we studied. This analysis indicated problems for some of the responses to this instrument, as demonstrated through the ranking task developed in this study. Many of the professors disagreed with the ranking of the responses suggested by Swanson. There is certainly a need for more instruments to validly measure metacognition. This instrument is one that, with some modification, might be used more in research on metacognition.     

Fuzzy MCDM based on the concept of α‐cut

In a fuzzy multiple criteria decision‐making (MCDM) problem, with a hierarchical structure of more than two levels and involving multiple decision‐makers (DMs), to find the exact membership functions of the final aggregation ratings of all feasible alternatives is almost impossible. Thus, ranking methods based on exact membership functions cannot be utilized to rank the feasible alternatives and complete the optimal selection. To resolve the above‐mentioned complexity and to incorporate assessments of all DMs' viewpoints, in this paper a fuzzy MCDM method with multiple DMs, based on the concepts of fuzzy set theory and α‐cut, is developed. This method incorporates a number of perspectives on how to approach the fuzzy MCDM problem with multiple DMs, as follows: (1) combining quantitative and qualitative criteria as well as negative and positive ones; (2) using the generalized means to develop the aggregation method of multiple DMs' opinions; (3) incorporating the risk attitude index β to convey the total risk attitude of all DMs by using the estimation data obtained at the data input stage; (4) employing the algebraic operations of fuzzy numbers based on the concept of α‐cut to calculate the final aggregation ratings and develop a matching ranking method for proposed fuzzy MCDM method with multiple DMs. Furthermore, we use this method to survey the site selection for free port zone (FPZ) in Taiwan as an empirical study to demonstrate the proposed fuzzy MCDM algorithm. The result of this empirical investigation shows that the port of Kaohsiung, the largest international port of Taiwan as well as the sixth container port in the world in 2004, is optimal for the Taiwan government in enacting the plan of FPZ. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Commentary on Wolford,Taylor, and Beck: The conjunction fallacy?

AlthoughP(A&B|X) can never exceedP(A|X) (the conjunction rule), it is possible forP(X|A&B) to exceedP(X|A). Hence, people who rankA&B as more probable thanA are not necessarily violating any normative rule if the ranking is done in terms of the probability of these events to yield an eventX. Wolford, Taylor, and Beck (1990) have argued that this indeed is what happens in some problems (e.g. Tversky& Kahneman’s [1983] Linda problem). The claim made here is that the Linda problem is hard to reconcile with this interpretation; that there is little if any evidence that subjects utilize this interpretation; and that in any case, representativeness can account for all Linda problem results.     

On the (numerical) ranking associated with any finite binary relation

We generalize the concept of a ‘ranking associated with a linear order’ from linear orders to arbitrary finite binary relations. Using the concept of differential of an object in a binary relation as theoretical primitive, we axiomatically introduce several measurement scales, some of which include the generalized ranking as a special case. We provide a computational formula for this generalized ranking, discuss its many elegant properties and offer some illustrating examples.     

I—From Property Dualism to Substance Dualism

Property dualism is enjoying a slight resurgence in popularity, these days; substance dualism, not so much. But it is not as easy as one might think to be a property dualist and a substance materialist. The reasons for being a property dualist support the idea that some phenomenal properties (or qualia ) are as fundamental as the most basic physical properties; but what material objects could be the bearers of the qualia? If even some qualia require an adverbial construal (if they are modifications of the thing that is conscious because of them, not properties of something else to which the subject of consciousness is related), then the property dualist can be driven to speculative forms of materialism none of which, at this point, looks more likely to be true than the more modest versions of emergent dualism defended by contemporary substance dualists.     

Medieval <Emphasis Type="Italic">Obligationes</Emphasis> as Logical Games of Consistency Maintenance

I argue that the medieval form of dialectical disputation known as obligationes can be viewed as a logical game of consistency maintenance. The game has two participants, Opponent and Respondent. Opponent puts forward a proposition P; Respondent must concede, deny or doubt, on the basis of inferential relations between P and previously accepted or denied propositions, or, in case there is none, on the basis of the common set of beliefs. Respondent loses the game if he concedes a contradictory set of propositions. Opponent loses the game if Respondent is able to maintain consistency during the stipulated period of time. The obligational rules are here formalised by means of familiar notational devices, and the application of some game-theoretical concepts, such as (winning) strategy, moves, motivation, allows for an analysis of some crucial properties of the game. In particular, the primacy of inferential (syntactic) relations over semantic aspects and the dynamic character of obligations are outlined.     

Thurstonian modeling of ranking data via mean and covariance structure analysis

Although Thurstonian models provide an attractive representation of choice behavior, they have not been extensively used in ranking applications since only recently efficient estimation methods for these models have been developed. These, however, require the use of special-purpose estimation programs, which limits their applicability. Here we introduce a formulation of Thurstonian ranking models that turns an idiosyncratic estimation problem into an estimation problem involving mean and covariance structures with dichotomous indicators. Well-known standard solutions for the latter can be readily applied to this specific problem, and as a result any Thurstonian model for ranking data can be fitted using existing general purpose software for mean and covariance structure analysis. Although the most popular programs for covariance structure analysis (e.g., LISREL and EQS) cannot be presently used to estimate Thurstonian ranking models, other programs such as MECOSA already exist that can be straightforwardly used to estimate these models.This paper is based on the author's doctoral dissertation. Ulf Böckenholt was my advisor. The author is indebted to Ulf Böckenholt for his comments on a previous version of this paper and to Gerhard Arminger for his extensive support on the use of MECOSA. The final stages of this research took place while the author was at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Conversations with my colleague there, Adolfo Hernández, helped to greatly improve this paper.     

Modelling mechanisms with causal cycles

Mechanistic philosophy of science views a large part of scientific activity as engaged in modelling mechanisms. While science textbooks tend to offer qualitative models of mechanisms, there is increasing demand for models from which one can draw quantitative predictions and explanations. Casini et al. (Theoria 26(1):5–33, 2011) put forward the Recursive Bayesian Networks (RBN) formalism as well suited to this end. The RBN formalism is an extension of the standard Bayesian net formalism, an extension that allows for modelling the hierarchical nature of mechanisms. Like the standard Bayesian net formalism, it models causal relationships using directed acyclic graphs. Given this appeal to acyclicity, causal cycles pose a prima facie problem for the RBN approach. This paper argues that the problem is a significant one given the ubiquity of causal cycles in mechanisms, but that the problem can be solved by combining two sorts of solution strategy in a judicious way.     

Incidental image memorability

ABSTRACT

Recent studies using intentional memory tasks showed that images differ consistently in memorability. Here, we used a surprise recognition memory test. We asked how incidental encoding would affect the consistency and ranking of the memorability scores. If memorability is truly an intrinsic property of the image, one should not expect large differences between incidental and intentional conditions. On the other hand, participants might process images differently when not anticipating a memory test, yielding different results. The study list of our incidental memory task was identical to our previous, intentional study. Participants were to watch the images of this list carefully as they appeared on the screen one by one (free viewing); supposedly for a study about eye movements. Afterwards, a surprise recognition memory test was administered. Despite the free viewing instructions during the study phase, the resulting incidental image memorability scores still showed high levels of consistency across participants. In addition, the overlap between the incidental and intentional memorability ranking was large. These results provide further support for the idea of memorability as an intrinsic image property and add to its ecological validity, as people rarely memorise images intentionally.     

Mind the Gap! How the Digital Turn Upsets Intellectual Property

Intellectual property is one of the highly divisive issues in contemporary philosophical and political debates. The main objective of this paper is to explore some sources of tension between the formal rules of intellectual property (particularly copyright and patents) and the emerging informal norms of file sharing and open access in online environments. We look into the file sharing phenomena not only to illustrate the deepening gap between the two sets of norms, but to cast some doubt on the current regime of intellectual property as an adequate frame for the new type of interactions in online environments. Revisiting the classic Arrow–Demsetz debate about intellectual property and the epistemological issues involved in assessing institutions, we suggest that seeking out new institutional arrangements aligned with the norms-in-use seems to be a more promising strategy in the new technological setting than attempting to reinforce the current legal framework. Moreover, such a strategy is less prone to committing the so-called ‘Nirvana fallacies’. As a secondary task, we try to cast some doubt on the two most common moral justifications of intellectual property as being able to ground the full extent of the current intellectual property regime.

     

Human Zombies are Metaphysically Impossible

Chalmers (The Conscious Mind, Oxford Unversity Press, Oxford 1996) has argued for a form of property dualism on the basis of the concept of a zombie (which is physically identical to normals), and the concept of the inverted spectrum. He asserts that these concepts show that the facts about consciousness, such as experience or qualia, are really further facts about our world, over and above the physical facts. He claims that they are the hard part of the mind-body issue. He also claims that consciousness is a fundamental feature of the world like mass, charge, etc. He says that consciousness does not logically supervene on the physical and all current attempts to assert an identity between consciousness and the physical are just as non-reductive as his dualism. They are simply correlations and are part of the problem of the explanatory gap. In this paper, three examples of strong identities between a sensation or a quale and a physiological process are presented, which overcome these problems. They explain the identity in an a priori manner and they show that consciousness or sensations (Q) logically supervene on the physical (P), in that it is logically impossible to have P and not to have Q. In each case, the sensation was predicted and entailed by the physical. The inverted spectrum problem for consciousness is overcome and explained by a striking asymmetry in colour space. It is concluded that as some physical properties realize some sensations or qualia that human zombies are not metaphysically possible and the explanatory gap is bridged in these cases. Thus, the hard problem is overcome in these instances.     

Spurious Causal Kinds: A Problem for the Causal-Power Conception of Kinds

There is an assumption common in the philosophy of mind literature that kinds in our sciences—or causal kinds, at least—are individuated by the causal powers that objects have in virtue of the properties they instantiate. While this assumption might not be problematic by itself, some authors take the assumption to mean that falling under a kind and instantiating a property amount to the same thing. I call this assumption the “Property-Kind Individuation Principle”. A problem with this principle arises because there are cases where we can sort objects by their possession of common causal powers, and yet those objects do not intuitively form a causal kind. In this short note, I discuss why the Property-Kind Individuation Principle is thus not a warranted metaphysical assumption.