The use of partial information on weights in multicriteria decision problems

This paper addresses multicriteria decision problems in which only partial information is given in the decision-making process. We generalize existing results about preference relations induced by nonnegative inverse matrices, allowing linear relations on weights with upper and lower bounds. In addition we develop conditions for additional information that preserve the special properties studied and show how to incorporate the new information to the model. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An interactive multicriteria decision model for multipurpose reservoir management: the Shellmouth Reservoir

Reservoir management is inherently multicriterial, since any release decision involves implicit trade-offs between various conflicting objectives. The release decision reflects concerns such as flood protection, generation of hydroelectric power, dilution of wastewater and heated effluent, supply of municipal, agricultural and industrial water, maintenance of environmental standards and satisfaction of recreational needs. This paper presents a framework for analysing trade-offs between several decision criteria and includes the dilution of heated effluents from downstream thermoelectric power generation in an optimization model for reservoir management. The model is formulated and analysed in an interactive multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) modelling framework. Rather than providing specific target levels or ad hoc constants in a goal-programming framework as proposed elsewhere, this multicriteria framework suggests a systematic way of evaluating trade-offs by progressive preference assessment. The MCDM model, based on a Chebyshev metric and a contracted cone approach, is learning-oriented and permits a natural exploration of the decision space while maintaining non-dominated decisions. A detailed case study of the Shellmouth Reservoir in Manitoba, Canada serves as an illustration of the model. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The modified star graph and the petal diagram: two new visual aids for discrete alternative multicriteria decision making

Many studies have looked into the provisions of visual aids to multicriteria decision making. However, most of them have separated the display of alternative profiles and criteria weight information into two displays. This makes the analysis of the relationship between the criteria and alternatives and the effect of changing the criteria weights on the decision difficult. In this study, displays that can incorporate the display of both alternative profiles and criteria weight information for discrete alternative multicriteria decision-making problems are examined. The simple additive model is the multicriteria analysis method used. The result is two new visual aids for representing data of multicriteria decision-making problems, the modified star graph and the petal diagram. This paper discusses the two displays and compares their strengths and weaknesses. The results of a preliminary test conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the displays are also included. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Proper Interpretation and Impact of the AHP Axiom of Independence in Single-Criterion and Multiple-Criteria Problems

Some authors have proposed that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) axiom of independence be relaxed to accommodate observations drawn from (a) examples of pairwise comparisons of alternatives in clusters in single-criterion AHP problems and (b) examples of problems in which the criteria have the same underlying measurement and both the achievement of the goal and the alternatives are measured objectively. We show that the illustrations given are actually single-criterion problems according to the AHP. Thus the AHP axiom of independence is inapplicable in both situations and therefore not violated. We also consider the consequence of failure to distinguish between a criterion as an attribute of alternatives and cluster of alternatives, the two being different in the hierarchic structure. Finally, we discuss transformable problems, which look like multicriteria problems but are actually single-criterion problems, and how failure to recognize this fact may lead to incorrect syntheses and false conclusions.     

Some results concerning the quality of vertex solutions found by a method for multiple-objective linear programming

The Zionts-Wallenius algorithm for multiple-objective linear programming terminates with an extreme point solution that is locally but not necessary globally optimal. To find the globally optimal solution, a search along the facets of the solution space polyhedron may be required. In this paper we report the results of an experiment to determine how close the local and global optima are. We discuss the concept of closeness and propose one measure. Computer simulation is used to determine, in general, the quality of the solution found by the Zionts-Wallenius method for two types of non-linear utility functions. The merits of a search procedure are discussed in the context of the results.     

The Dream of Consensus: Finding Common Ground in a Bioethical Context

Consensus is the holy grail of bioethics, the lynch pin of the assumption that well informed, well intentioned people may reach generally acceptable positions on ethically contentious issues. It has been especially important in bioethics, where advancing technology has assured an increasing field of complex medical dilemmas. This paper results on the use of a multicriterion decision making system (MCDM) analyzing group process in an attempt to better define hospital policy. In a pilot program at The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, a series of small scale focus groups was constituted to examine criteria defining organ transplant eligibility. Criteria were organized hierarchically using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, an MCDM approach, and the resulting data was analyzed using Expert Choice 9.0, software designed to facilitate AHP analysis. Qualitative and quantitative analysis map barriers to practical consensus in a way not previously possible.     

A Bibliographic Survey of the Activities and International Nature of Multiple Criteria Decision Making

One of the fascinating things about multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) is the degree to which the contributions that have built the field have come from all over the world. In this paper the international nature of the authorships of the 1216 refereed journal articles published on MCDM between 1987 and 1992, and the journals in which they have appeared, is examined. Also, an analysis of the 217 books and 31 journal special issues that have been published on MCDM, and 143 conferences that have been held on MCDM since the inception of the field, is similarly conducted. The paper concludes with a conference organizer, author and special issue guest editor index.     

Reasoning Is for Arguing: Understanding the Successes and Failures of Deliberation

Theoreticians of deliberative democracy have sometimes found it hard to relate to the seemingly contradictory experimental results produced by psychologists and political scientists. We suggest that this problem may be alleviated by inserting a layer of psychological theory between the empirical results and the normative political theory. In particular, we expose the argumentative theory of reasoning that makes the observed pattern of findings more coherent. According to this theory, individual reasoning mechanisms work best when used to produce and evaluate arguments during a public deliberation. It predicts that when diverse opinions are discussed, group reasoning will outperform individual reasoning. It also predicts that individuals have a strong confirmation bias. When people reason either alone or with like‐minded peers, this confirmation bias leads them to reinforce their initial attitudes, explaining individual and group polarization. We suggest that the failures of reasoning are most likely to be remedied at the collective than at the individual level.     

A note on the use of goal programming for the multiplicative AHP

The main aim of this paper is to identify the opportunities of utilizing goal programming (GP) in the multiplicative analytic hierarchy process (MAHP). It starts with the issue of weight derivation from judgemental matrices. The use of GP for the weight derivation problem is not new, but GP is viewed in this paper from the perspective of augmenting the capabilities of the widely used row geometric mean method (RGMM) of the logarithmic least squares technique (LLST). Different possible approaches using GP are discussed. It is shown that the formulation of the GP problem can be easily modified to provide the same weights as those of the LLST. While this proposed GP technique is not superior to the RGMM in terms of computational ease or speed, it is quite useful in solving certain other problems of the MAHP, such as interval judgements and missing judgements, which cannot be readily solved by the RGMM. The proposed technique provides extensive scope for utilizing the vast literature on non-linear programming, say, for conducting sensitivity analysis. It also has the potential to be useful to more complicated issues of the MAHP, such as group decision making and interlevel dependence, hitherto little explored areas of the MAHP. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross-cultural differences in distributive justice: a comparison of Turkey and the U.S

When allocators make decisions about distributing resources, they face a dilemma if the expectations for consequences that will flow from particular choices are incongruent with each other. For example, a certain allocation choice might be expected to make an allocator appear warm and likable but unfair. Previous research has found that culture can shape these perceptions and, thus, their congruence or incongruence. The present study further investigated these ideas. Differences between Turkish and U.S. students' perceptions of allocators who distributed resources on the basis of merit vs. need were investigated. Results revealed an allocation dilemma among the U.S. but not among the Turkish students. Specifically, the U.S. students perceived greater incongruence among allocation consequences for both merit and need choices than did the students from Turkey for whom perceptions of allocator's fairness were more aligned with perceptions of allocator's warmth.     

Determining the significance of scale values from multidimensional scaling profile analysis using a resampling method

Although multidimensional scaling (MDS) profile analysis is widely used to study individual differences, there is no objective way to evaluate the statistical significance of the estimated scale values. In the present study, a resampling technique (bootstrapping) was used to construct confidence limits for scale values estimated from MDS profile analysis. These bootstrap confidence limits were used, in turn, to evaluate the significance of marker variables of the profiles. The results from analyses of both simulation data and real data suggest that the bootstrap method may be valid and may be used to evaluate hypotheses about the statistical significance of marker variables of MDS profiles.     

Valuing the future: a MADA example involving nuclear waste storage

Intertemporal decision making involves decisions that have consequences that span several periods of time and often extend far into the future. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and highlight the differences associated with different evaluation methods designed to cope with the long-term impacts of a decision including discounting. The concepts and ideas are illustrated in the context of a decision about a nuclear waste facility. We show how applying different discounting methodologies can greatly affect the decision made, especially over long time periods. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward a new conceptualization and operationalization of risk perception within the genetic counseling domain

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it provides an historical overview of studies of risk, risk perception, and decision making under risk within the genetic counseling domain. Second, it proposes an alternative conceptualization and operationalization for the study of risk perception. The conceptualization involves probability, adversity, incompleteness, and ambiguity. Prior studies of risk perception focus on the recurrence risk and operationalize risk perception by asking for interpretations of the magnitude of the probability of the outcome. Their focus is on the probability of a particular outcome. We formulate the problem in terms of a gamble and suggest that risk perception be operationalized in terms of the riskiness of the gamble. Our focus is on the riskiness of a decision option which entails two or more outcomes.     

Juror Perceptions in a Rape Trial: Examining the Complainant's Ingestion of Chemical Substances Prior to Sexual Assault

This study examined the impact of a rape complainant's willingness to ingest a chemical substance and the type of ingested substance on the decisions of 229 mock jurors. Jurors were influenced by the type of substance used by the complainant, the complainant's willingness to use a substance, and rape myths. The complainant's ingestion of alcohol (compared to gamma-hydroxybutrate [GHB] and marijuana) led to the highest guilt ratings for the defendant. The complainant who willingly ingested a substance was viewed as less credible and more to blame for the rape compared to one who unwillingly used a substance. The complainant was perceived as the most credible when she unwillingly ingested GHB or marijuana. Jurors high in rape myth acceptance gave lower ratings of guilt to the defendant compared to jurors with lower rape myth acceptance. Overall, the results highlight several juror and case factors that might bias jurors in actual rape trials.     

Decision by sampling: The role of the decision environment in risky choice

Decision by sampling (DbS) is a theory about how our environment shapes the decisions that we make. Here, I review the application of DbS to risky decision making. According to classical theories of risky decision making, people make stable transformations between outcomes and probabilities and their subjective counterparts using fixed psychoeconomic functions. DbS offers a quite different account. In DbS, the subjective value of an outcome or probability is derived from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons with a sample of other outcomes or probabilities from the decision environment. In this way, the distribution of attribute values in the environment determines the subjective valuations of outcomes and probabilities. I show how DbS interacts with the real-world distributions of gains, losses, and probabilities to produce the classical psychoeconomic functions. I extend DbS to account for preferences in benchmark data sets. Finally, in a challenge to the classical notion of stable subjective valuations, I review evidence that manipulating the distribution of attribute values in the environment changes our subjective valuations just as DbS predicts.     

Assessment of successful smoking cessation by psychological factors using the Bayesian network approach

The association between psychological factors and smoking cessation is complicated and inconsistent in published researches, and the joint effect of psychological factors on smoking cessation is unclear. This study explored how psychological factors jointly affect the success of smoking cessation using a Bayesian network approach. A community-based case control study was designed with 642 adult male successful smoking quitters as the cases, and 700 adult male failed smoking quitters as the controls. General self-efficacy (GSE), trait coping style (positive-trait coping style (PTCS) and negative-trait coping style (NTCS)) and self-rating anxiety (SA) were evaluated by GSE Scale, Trait Coping Style Questionnaire and SA Scale, respectively. Bayesian network was applied to evaluate the relationship between psychological factors and successful smoking cessation. The local conditional probability table of smoking cessation indicated that different joint conditions of psychological factors led to different outcomes for smoking cessation. Among smokers with high PTCS, high NTCS and low SA, only 36.40% successfully quitted smoking. However, among smokers with low pack-years of smoking, high GSE, high PTCS and high SA, 63.64% successfully quitted smoking. Our study indicates psychological factors jointly influence smoking cessation outcome. According to different joint situations, different solutions should be developed to control tobacco in practical intervention.     

Association of the DAT1 genotype with inattentive behavior is mediated by reading ability in a general population sample

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and reading disability (RD) frequently co-occur in the child population and therefore raise the possibility of shared genetic etiology. We used a quantitative trait loci (QTL) approach to assess the involvement of the dopamine transporter (DAT1) gene polymorphism in mediating reading disability and poor attention in a general population sample of primary school children aged 6-11 years in the UK. The potential confounding effects of IQ and chronological age were also investigated. We found an independent association between the homozygous DAT1 10/10 repeat genotype and RD that was not accounted for by the level of ADHD symptoms. This finding suggests that the DAT1 gene polymorphism may influence a common neural mechanism underlying both reading acquisition and ADHD symptoms.