群体决策过程中的信息取样偏差

一般认为,决策群体的优势是能综合各个成员拥有的不完整信息,形成对所有决策备择方案的无偏差的认识,从而作出最佳选择。但“群体讨论中的有偏差信息取样模型’认为,群体在决策中往往表现出倾向于讨论两种信息：(1)各成员讨论前都拥有的信息;(2)支持成员在讨论前所偏好的信息。该实验通过模拟人员选拔决策形式的实验室实验,对这一模型的假设进行验证。研究结果表明,大多数群体选择了一开始受到大多数成员支持的候选人,而非实际的最佳人选;群体讨论非但未纠正,反而加强了成员对候选人原有的歪曲印象。     

FUZZY-TRACE THEORY AND FRAMING EFFECTS IN CHILDREN'S RISKY DECISION MAKING

Traditional theories of cognitive development predict that children progress from intuitive to computational thinking, whereas fuzzy-trace theory makes the opposite prediction To evaluate these alternatives, framing problems were administered to preschoolers, second graders, and fifth graders Consistent with fuzzy-trace theory, results indicated (a) that younger children focused on quantitative differences between outcomes and did not exhibit framing effects (risk avoidance for gains, risk seeking for losses) and (b) that older children assimilated these quantitative differences and displayed framing effects     

BROADENING THE DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING:

Decision theory and research have focused almost exclusively on choice—the selection of the best option from a choice set containing two or more options. Largely overlooked is the question of how those particular options got there in the first place—why them and not others? This article describes a theory, called image theory, about how prechoice screening of options governs the contents of the set from which a choice is made and summarizes empirical tests of the theory. The research results suggest that screening plays afar more important role in decision making than is generally appreciated and that our view of decision making must be broadened accordingly.     

决策论中的协方差方法与信号检测论

本文有两个目的。第一,介绍决策论中的平均概率分数的协方差分解方法——一种评估判断能力的新方法。第二,探索协方差方法与信号检测论的关系。按照信号检测论评价法程序进行的两个实验证明:1.协方差分解方法能够把人的判断能力及其主观态度区分开。2.协方差分解方法在处理感觉事件上(重量感觉)与信号检测论同等有效。     

决策者的认知特征对决策过程及企业战略选择的影响

在不确定环境下,企业的最高决策者的个人特性和行为对于企业的战略决策起着关键的作用。本研究探讨决策者的认知特征对于战略决策的过程以及最终形成的战略决策的影响。研究采用情境实验法,根据某企业的实际情形编写了一个商业案例,案例提供了决策者所需要的信息,并制造出高不确定的情境。148名来自大学管理学院的学生被要求对于该案例进行分析并填写有关量表。对数据进行结构方程模型的分析后得到如下结果：决策者的认知复杂性和认知需要与他们对企业内外环境的周密分析具有显著的正向关系,而且通过后者影响到对于环境中蕴含的机会的判断,并最终影响是否进入某项业务的决策。     

A RESPONSE TO STANLEY KLEIN: A DIALOGUE ON THE RELEVANCE OF QUANTUM THEORY TO RELIGION

Abstract. I respond to Stanley Klein's critique of my essay “Quantum Reality, the Emergence of Complex Order from Virtual States, and the Importance of Consciousness in the Universe,” arguing in support of the necessity to derive a quantum perspective of evolution rather than adhering to an essentially classical view. In response to Klein's criticism of my concept of a cosmic morality, the origins of that concept are traced back to Zeno of Citium. I wholeheartedly embrace Klein's suggestion that the new science inspires views of the human condition that can help us make the world a better place.     

THE PHYSICS OF DAVID BOHM AND ITS RELEVANCE TO PHILOSOPHY AND THEOLOGY

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to analyze David Bohm's work in terms of physics, philosophy, and theology. First, I discuss the development of Bohm's thought since 1951. Then, using the methodology of Imre Lakatos, I evaluate the scientific status of his research program. Next, I explore the philosophical dimensions of Bohm's views in which realist and idealist, monist and dualist, contingent and determinist outlooks occur in creative tension. Finally, I suggest ways in which Bohm's ideas are relevant to theology through concepts of God and cosmos, beauty and purpose, grace and free will, church, self and evil.

The entire universe is basically a single, indivisible…but flexible and ever changing, unit (Bohm 1951, 140).

     

个人和团体任务情境中不同心理卷入强度对个体决策行为的影响

使用被试间实验设计,分别研究了个体和团体两种不同的任务情境中,心理卷入强度高低对决策效果的影响。结果表明：（1）无论个体还是团体任务情境,不同的心理卷入度的决策者,决策结果差异显著;高心理卷入情境下,决策者的决策更为客观和公平。（2）团体任务高心理卷入情境下,学生对自己小组的评价和对其他小组的评价差异不显著。（3）团体任务情境中成员的决策结果比个体任务情境的更为客观。     

团体决策支持系统和团体讨论对团体决策的影响

通过模拟实验的方法,探讨了团体决策支持系统（GDSS）和团体讨论对团体决策的影响。以大学生为被试,运用小组决策任务,对小组决策过程进行了研究。实验记录了在有无GDSS的支持和有无团体讨论两个变量所决定的4种实验条件下,小组决策取得结果的正确性和组内的一致性。用ANOVA方法分析了4种条件下的实验结果,发现GDSS能提高团体决策的正确性,而团体讨论将有助于成员做出一个正确的、一致的决策     

个人影响力在群体决策整合过程中的作用：对SDS理论的扩展

以往社会决策图式理论没有考虑决策群体中成员的地位、成员的价值取向和专长知识分布等决策者影响力因素对群体决策整合过程的影响。本文在考虑上述诸因素影响的前提下构建了决策者影响力函数,通过投资决策模拟实验,综合使用决策影响力函数和个体偏好分布来预测群体决策的结果。研究表明综合运用决策者影响力函数和修改后的社会决策图式理论比传统的理论能更准确和有效的预测群体决策。     

CONTRIBUTION OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY TO THE NATURE AND FUNCTION OF WORK AND ITS RELEVANCE TO SOCIETIES OF THE THIRD WORLD

It is argued that the concept of work is central to consideration of the future both of the industrialized and the Third World. Work must be sharply distinguished from paid employment to which we cannot look to provide entitlement to full citizenship, a role which it has acquired over a comparatively short period of time in industrial civilization. Work and education are artificially divided, the price for which is greatly higher in the developing than in the developed world. Sociotechnical assessment should be undertaken to ensure that the selection of technologies for use in developing countries will meet their requirements for the encouragement and growth of social and political as well as manual skills. There is a need for community processes to be studied and understood without neglect of their historical dimension.     

管理人员对影响新产品开发决策宏观动力场因素的认知

在先前一系列研究的基础上,利用问卷考察了管理人员对宏观动力场因素不确定性质的认知,它涉及全国三个地区１２１名管理人员和１５家工厂企业。研究证实了从管理人员角度看,宏观因素变化性的主要维度是波动性、趋势性和时距性,经营信息不确定度、外部管理与招工不确定度、供应与公关不确定度,构成了总的动力场不确定性。最后,研究管理人员的认知结构对新产品开发决策具有的理论意义和实践意义。     

ORDER FROM VIRTUAL STATES: A DIALOGUE ON THE RELEVANCE OF QUANTUM THEORY TO RELIGION

Abstract. Lothar Schäfer has written a poetic tribute pointing out the relevance of quantum theory to religious beliefs. Two items in his article trouble me greatly. First are the excessive claims about the relevance of quantum mechanisms for the creation and evolution of life. Schäfer's claim that “everything that can happen must happen” can be dangerously misleading. The quantum rules predict that most outcomes have a near‐zero chance of occurring. Although “anything can happen” can be a wonderful metaphor for living life, it can be dangerous if taken literally. It can also be misleading when applied to Darwinian mechanisms. My second trouble was with Schäfer's desire to extract moral values from quantum principles in a literalist manner. Extracting ethics from science has always been problematic. Luckily, Schäfer provides balance to these objections by including many wonderful passages that in my opinion correctly point out how quantum theory should change the way we conceive of our place in the universe. I list twelve points in which the quantum ontology differs from our normal Newtonian ontology. Awareness of these aspects is typically missing from our usual appreciation of nature, so Schäfer's poetry on a number of these points is well appreciated.