The origins and function of the reference point in risky group decision making the case of the Cuban missile crisis

This case study explores reference level effects on group decision making during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. The group is composed of American President John F. Kennedy and his advisers. The results are consistent with much experimental evidence showing that reference levels play an important role in determining preferences. The results also extend the notion of reference-dependent risky choice to the group level, where the group consists of seasoned experts who each have a different role to play within the group and who are dealing with an issue of great importance.     

Collective efficacy and vigilant problem solving in group decision making: A non-linear model

This research explores the relationship between collective efficacy and aspects of analytic or vigilant problem solving (Janis, 1989) in the context of group decision making. We hypothesized that vigilant problem solving would be most evident under conditions of relatively moderate collective efficacy, as opposed to either very high or very low collective efficacy. We investigated this hypothesis with groups of business students who participated in a complex business strategy simulation. Results show a significant curvilinear relationship between collective efficacy and vigilant problem solving, and a significant linear relationship between vigilant problem solving and decision outcomes. There is also evidence that vigilant problem solving mediates the relationship between collective efficacy and decision outcomes. Implications for theory, managerial practice, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Evolution of multi‐criteria analysis: a scientometric analysis

The field of multi‐criteria analysis has known very important developments during the last 20 years, if one considers the very large amount of activities that it has generated and continues to generate (papers in journals, a dedicated journal, books, meetings, applications, …). Even if multi‐criteria analysis has reached some maturity, its future is subject to questions and debate among its researchers: what is the evolution of the field? What is its structure? Is it integrating new topics? In order to answer such questions at least partially, we have studied multi‐criteria analysis literature by means of the method of associated words (scientometric analysis) and the software ‘Leximappe’. All the abstracts of the papers which are relative to multi‐criteria analysis and are included in the bibliographic ABI‐INFORM database from 1985 to 1996 have been analysed. In this paper, we will present some results of this study. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company (PTC) using quantitative and multiple‐criteria decision analysis—A case in‐point

The main purpose of this paper is to improve the production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company by selecting the most preferred brand and subsequently generating maximum profit from it. As the company produces a variety of products, the technique of multi criteria decision making is used to select the most preferred brand. To generate the maximum output from the preferred brand, different methods of qualitative managerial analysis are used, which include decision analysis to decide “why and where” the manufacturing should be carried out, transportation model to minimize the logistics cost while meeting the demand, and linear programming technique to maximize the profit generated in 2014–2015. The result obtained from analytical hierarchy process shows that the most preferred brand of the company with respect to price, quality, and comfort is John Player Gold Leaf. The decision analysis explains that this brand should be manufactured in the Jhelum factory of the company as it is more cost‐effective to produce and there is a high availability of resources. Transportation model minimizes the logistics cost of this brand from the 2 factories while meeting the demand at each provinces, central warehouse. Linear programming contributes in generating a profit of 32.738 billion PKR with an amount of 0.35 million PKR, which is more than that of the current profit of the company in the year. These results will allow the top management of the company to take corrective decisions well in time, gain a core competency in cost reduction, and make the supply chain process more efficient.     

Sensitivity analysis with interdependent criteria for multicriteria decision making: The case of soil pollution treatment

This paper is focused on interdependences between criteria in multicriteria decision analyses. Such interdependences are usually ignored in sensitivity analyses. After a discussion on the nature of interdependences, methods are presented to deal with interdependences in the context of Monte Carlo experiments. These methods are applied in the context of soil pollution treatment alternatives. It is shown that ignoring interdependences may have a distorting effect on the results of sensitivity analysis on rankings of alternatives.     

Effects of group decision rules on decisions involving continuous alternatives: The unanimity rule and extreme decisions in mock civil juries

Two experiments examined the effects of majority and unanimity decision rules on group decisions involving continuous alternatives. Each experiment used mock civil juries to test three hypotheses related to the claim that when the distribution of group members’ initial preferences is skewed, the group’s decision will be influenced more by the presence of outlier members under unanimity rule than under majority rule. Experiment 1 tested the hypotheses using a punitive damages case and positively skewed preference distributions. Experiment 2 tested the hypotheses using a compensatory damages case and manipulating the skewness of preference distributions in a 2 (group decision rule) × 2 (valence of skewness) factorial design. In both experiments, the extreme (outlier) member’s individual preference was significantly correlated with the group decision only under unanimity rule. A simple thought experiment based on the experimental results is suggested regarding the implications of using unanimity or majority rule for making decisions in civil juries.     

Toward a new conceptualization and operationalization of risk perception within the genetic counseling domain

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it provides an historical overview of studies of risk, risk perception, and decision making under risk within the genetic counseling domain. Second, it proposes an alternative conceptualization and operationalization for the study of risk perception. The conceptualization involves probability, adversity, incompleteness, and ambiguity. Prior studies of risk perception focus on the recurrence risk and operationalize risk perception by asking for interpretations of the magnitude of the probability of the outcome. Their focus is on the probability of a particular outcome. We formulate the problem in terms of a gamble and suggest that risk perception be operationalized in terms of the riskiness of the gamble. Our focus is on the riskiness of a decision option which entails two or more outcomes.     

Group information elaboration and group decision making: The role of shared task representations

Decision making groups often exchange and integrate distributed information to a lesser extent than is desirable for high-quality decisions. We propose that group members’ shared task representations play an important role in this respect, because groups are often insufficiently attuned to the task’s information elaboration requirements. Task representations emphasizing elaboration of decision-relevant information should therefore enhance decision-making performance. This should hold especially when group members realize that they share these task representations, because this realization removes psychological barriers to introducing new insights. Testing these hypotheses, we compared information elaboration and decision-making performance of control groups and groups receiving instructions emphasizing information elaboration in two experiments. Half of the experimental groups were also made to realize that they shared the elaboration instructions. As predicted, groups with task representations emphasizing information elaboration and the realization they shared these representations outperformed groups in the other conditions. This effect was mediated by information elaboration.     

Test of a Level of Aspiration model of group decision making: Non-obvious group preference reversal due to an irrelevant alternative

We conducted two experiments that investigated a non-obvious prediction of a Level of Aspiration (LOA) model of group decision making. In both experiments, groups chose among three alternatives, A, B, and C, with C always being least preferred by all of the group members. In each experiment, by manipulating the nature of alternative C, we created two conditions differing in whether only A or only B was acceptable to all members. In support of the LOA model, groups tended to choose the alternative acceptable to all members, even when (Experiment 2) a majority of members most preferred a different alternative. Implications of the results for the LOA model are discussed in the context of social choice theory.     

Strategic demonstration of problem solutions by groups: The effects of member preferences,confidence, and learning goals

Research indicates that groups perform best, and their members learn the most, when they solve problems with demonstrably correct solutions. These outcomes are often attributed to correct members demonstrating to incorrect members how to solve such problems. However, because few studies have directly observed group interaction (Moreland, Swanenburg, Flagg, & Fetterman, 2010), the extent to which correct members actually demonstrate problem solutions remains unclear. Assuming that groups are strategic and desire to solve problems both accurately and efficiently, we predicted that initially correct minorities would be more likely than initially correct majorities to demonstrate problem solutions. Results from two studies support this prediction, in the form of member behavioral intentions (Study 1) and observed group interaction processes (Study 2). Study 1 also highlights the role of confidence in this effect, while Study 2 reveals that demonstration is overall more likely when groups have a goal that encourages member learning.     

Cognitive adaptation and its consequences: a test of cognitive continuum theory

Cognitive Continuum Theory (CCT) is an adaptive theory of human judgement and posits a continuum of cognitive modes anchored by intuition and analysis. The theory specifies surface and depth task characteristics that are likely to induce cognitive modes at different points along the cognitive continuum. The current study manipulated both the surface (information representation) and depth (task structure) characteristics of a multiple‐cue integration threat assessment task. The surface manipulation influenced cognitive mode in the predicted direction with an iconic information display inducing a more intuitive mode than a numeric information display. The depth manipulation influenced cognitive mode in a pattern not predicted by CCT. Results indicate this difference was due to a combination of task complexity and participant satisfacing. As predicted, analysis produced a more leptokurtic error distribution than intuition. Task achievement was a function of the extent to which participants demonstrated an analytic cognitive mode index, and not a function of correspondence, as predicted. This difference was likely due to the quantitative nature of the task manipulations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Processes of patient decision making: Theoretical and methodological issues

Abstract

There is a paucity of research studying patients' decision making processes. Traditional normative approaches investigating human decision have presented rational, analytic processing as a ‘gold standard’ for decision making with decision aids developed to facilitate such thinking. This paradigm has been challenged by the recent emergence of naturalistic decision making. Naturalistic approaches argue for techniques modelled closer to how decisions are actually made in ‘real life’. Early work in this evolving field suggests the importance of more automatic, intuitive processing such as the use of heuristic short-cuts. This paper discusses the contribution of naturalistic decision theory and assesses its usefulness as an alternative to classical decision approaches in investigating patient decision making. Approaches for measuring underlying cognitive processes are also critically discussed.     

Group decision process and incrementalism in organizational decision making

In two studies examining resource allocation, support is found for the notion that group decisions are affected in systematic ways depending on whether or not there was individual consideration of the problem before meeting as a group. Specifically, compared to no prior consideration groups, prior consideration groups (1) escalate their commitment more in progress (i.e., ongoing) decisions, and (2) are less willing to concentrate resources on a single project in adoption (i.e., resource utilization) decisions. The findings challenge the blanket assertion that promoting divergent views in a group decision context is always related to better decisions.     

Moral Utilitarianism and Attitudes Toward Animals

The majority of studies investigating attitudes toward animals have underscored the role of demographic and personality factors. The study of the role of general moral worldviews on attitudes toward animals represents an important complementary perspective. In the current study, we analyzed the relationship between moral utilitarianism toward humans and attitudes toward animals. In psychological and neuroscientific studies, moral utilitarianism has been shown to be related to empathy deficits. We expected that utilitarian decision making would be related to the endorsement of an instrumental representation of animals. We measured utilitarianism with the trolley problem, a hypothetical moral dilemma widely used in the psychological study of moral reasoning. A sample of 20,474 French adults answered an online survey measuring attitudes toward animals and moral decision making involving human beings. Results showed that irrespective of participants’ age and gender, there was a slight relationship between utilitarianism measured by the trolley dilemma and the endorsement of an instrumental representation of animal. Limitations and implications for future research are considered.     

Risk strategy under task complexity: a multivariate analysis of behaviour in a naturalistic setting

This study complements the existing literature on decision-making processes and outcomes in complex settings by exploring the impact of different types of complexity on risk strategies in a naturalistic setting. The study analyses a large sample of decisions made by individuals in UK offcourse betting markets, a fertile environment for observing both a variety of risk strategies and a range of task complexities. Specifically, the investigation focuses on the comparative impacts of complexity defined in terms, respectively, of alternatives and attributes. The results suggest that the risk strategy employed is affected by task complexity. Complexity does not affect the size of risk accepted but alternative- and attribute-based complexity together influence the propensity to accept greater degrees of risk. In addition, the effect of attribute-based complexity on risk taking appears to be modified by the use of risk-hedging strategies. The results are observed to corroborate some earlier work on decision process and outcome; where differences with earlier findings are identified, some possible explanations are offered. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What People Want From Their Professionals: Attitudes Toward Decision‐making Strategies

Attitudes toward four types of decision‐making strategies—clinical/fully rational, clinical/heuristic, actuarial/fully rational, and actuarial/heuristic—were examined across three studies. In Study 1, undergraduate students were split randomly between legal and medical decision‐making scenarios and asked to rate each strategy in terms of the following: (i) preference; (ii) accuracy; (iii) fairness; (iv) ethicalness; and (v) its perceived similarity to the strategies used by actual legal and medical professionals to make decisions. Studies 2 and 3 extended Study 1 by using a more relevant scenario and a community sample, respectively. Across the three studies, the clinical/fully rational strategy tended to be rated the highest across all attitudinal judgments, whereas the actuarial/heuristic strategy tended to receive the lowest ratings. Considering the two strategy‐differentiating factors separately, clinically based strategies tended to be rated higher than actuarially based strategies, and fully rational strategies were always rated higher than heuristic‐based strategies. The potential implications of the results for professionals' and those affected by their decisions are discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Separating the confident from the correct: Leveraging member knowledge in groups to improve decision making and performance

Groups often struggle to distinguish expert members from others who stand out for various reasons but may not be particularly knowledgeable (Littlepage & Mueller, 1997). We examined an intervention designed to improve group decision making and performance through instructing group members to search for information they already possessed that was relevant to a problem. Participants estimated values and expressed their confidence in their estimates individually and then a second time either individually or in a group. This was done with or without the intervention. Results indicated that: (1) groups were more confident than, and out-performed, individuals, (2) group decision making was best captured by models predicting more influence for more accurate members when the intervention was used and more influence for more confident members in its absence, and (3) groups that received the intervention out-performed groups that did not.     

Cross-cultural differences in distributive justice: a comparison of Turkey and the U.S

When allocators make decisions about distributing resources, they face a dilemma if the expectations for consequences that will flow from particular choices are incongruent with each other. For example, a certain allocation choice might be expected to make an allocator appear warm and likable but unfair. Previous research has found that culture can shape these perceptions and, thus, their congruence or incongruence. The present study further investigated these ideas. Differences between Turkish and U.S. students' perceptions of allocators who distributed resources on the basis of merit vs. need were investigated. Results revealed an allocation dilemma among the U.S. but not among the Turkish students. Specifically, the U.S. students perceived greater incongruence among allocation consequences for both merit and need choices than did the students from Turkey for whom perceptions of allocator's fairness were more aligned with perceptions of allocator's warmth.