Eyewitness Recall and Duration Estimates in Field Settings1

Witnesses were tested for either interrogative recall or narrative recall of a young woman to whom they had spoken for approximately 15 s, 2 min earlier. Interrogative responses were more complete and more accurate, but also more error prone than narrative responses. Men and women showed similar performance on most characteristics, but men were more confident in their responses. A negative correlation was found between age of witnesses and accuracy of recall. Women made significantly longer duration estimates of the target-witness encounters than did men. However, both men and women were relatively accurate in duration estimates when they used mental imagery rehearsal prior to giving duration judgments. The results were interpreted in terms of their forensic significance.     

The Impact of Multifaceted Questions on Eyewitness Accuracy Following Forced Fabrication Interviews

Lawyers will frequently use complex-question forms, such as multifaceted questions (single questions that contain both a true and a false proposition), when cross-examining witnesses, and prior research has shown that use of such questions reduces testimonial accuracy. The present study extends this research by using a forced fabrication paradigm (Chrobak & Zaragoza, 2008) to assess how multifaceted questions might affect eyewitness suggestibility after exposure to misleading post-event information. Consistent with prior studies, the use of multifaceted questions led to lower accuracy than simple questions. The novel finding was that multifaceted questions caused larger impairments in performance among fabrication participants (who had earlier been suggestively interviewed), than in control participants (who had not). We also provide preliminary evidence that the impairment caused by multifaceted questions is due to both (a) having to consider two propositions simultaneously, and (b) the shift in question focus from the fabricated event to a true event.     

Determinants of Confidence in Accuracy of Knowledge Retrieval

It was hypothesised that retrospective feelings of confidence in accuracy of knowledge retrieval are, at least in part, influenced by factors that differ from those responsible for the accuracy of knowledge retrieval. The initial level of confidence was suggested to be a major determinant of retrospective confidence which does not affect performance, and quality of available information was thought to be a determinant of performance quality which does not affect retrospective feelings of confidence. To test these hypotheses, bank managers were presented with cases of trials in the domain of banking law. The managers were provided with information which could have either low, medium or high diagnostic value and were asked to predict the trial outcome. Half the cases were difficult and half were easy in terms of being able to predict the outcome. Levels of managers' initial and retrospective feelings of confidence were measured. The hypotheses were supported and it was suggested that the lack of sensitivity of a person's retrospective confidence to his or her actual performance level is related to the dissociation between processes leading to feelings of retrospective confidence and processes responsible for performance quality.     

Counselor Confidence and Accuracy of Prognoses of Success or Failure

This study assessed the accuracy of predictions of freshman and overall college scholastic performance made by groups of high school counselors, college advisors, and counseling psychologists from a university counseling center in relation to the confidence of these judges that their prognoses were accurate. Predictions were made from three sets of case information. The results revealed that: (1) the degree of confidence counselors indicated in their freshman and overall college “pass” predictions was appropriately related to accuracy; (2) counselor confidence in freshman “fail” predictions was not related to accuracy although the “fail” judgments tended to be more accurate than the “pass” prognoses; (3) counselor confidence in their overall “fail” predictions was not significantly related to accuracy and, unlike the results for the freshman judgments, the overall “fail” predictions were not more accurate than the “pass” predictions; (4) the amount of case data available was not related to counselor predictive accuracy.     

Confidently Biased: Comparisons with Anchors Bias Estimates and Increase Confidence

Across a wide variety of situations, exposure to anchors has been shown to bias people's estimates. What is not known, however, is whether externally provided anchors influence the confidence that people have in their estimates. Our studies had two goals. First, we tested whether exposure to anchors influenced people's subjective confidence levels (Studies 1 and 2). These studies revealed that people who made estimates after making comparisons with externally provided anchors tended to be more confident in their estimates than people who did not see anchors. The second goal was to test two explanations as to why anchors increase people's confidence. In Study 3, we tested the explanation that anchors increase confidence because participants thought the anchors provided useful information. In Study 4, we tested the explanation that exposure to anchors causes people to consider a narrower range of plausible values as compared to when not exposed to anchors. Support was found only for the explanation that comparisons with anchors increase confidence because people who are exposed to anchors consider a narrower range of plausible values. Taken together, these studies reveal the powerful influence anchors can have—they not only bias estimates, but also increase people's confidence in their biased estimates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effects of the Cognitive Interview on Recall,Identification, Confidence and the Confidence/Accuracy Relationship

The effects of two interview techniques, the Cognitive Interview (CI) and the Structured Interview (SI), were examined in relation to recall, recognition, confidence and the confidence/accuracy relationship. Volunteer subjects witnessed a live staged event, and at set time delays (48 and 96 hours) were interviewed by means of either the CI or SI and made lineup identifications from both blank and filled lineup presentations. The CI significantly improved total recall (p<0.001) and correct recall (p<0.001) relative to the SI. There were no differences in either accuracy or error rates for the two conditions. The CI produced significantly higher ‘pre-post interview’ confidence ratings than the SI (p<0.05). Within-, between- and event-confidence ratings were not predictive of recall or recognition accuracy. Failure to find a significant consistent confidence/accuracy relationship was suggested to have occurred because of the operation of an accuracy assessment heuristic. The CI did not reliably improve identification from a filled lineup presentation relative to the SI, but did produce better performance on a blank lineup presentation (p<0.001). Confidence and the confidence/accuracy relationship involving identifications were not found to differ as a function of interview condition. Throughout the study multiple regression analyses failed to reveal consistent predictors of recall or recognition accuracy, confidence or the confidence/accuracy relationship of these two domains. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Communication of Confidence as a Determinant of Group Judgment Accuracy

The performance of interacting groups is often viewed as a function of the groups' ability to identify and weight their better members' judgments (Einhorn, Hogarth, & Klempner, 1977). Accurate identification of the best group member is facilitated by individuals accurately assessing confidence in their own individual judgments and accurately communicating their confidence during group interaction (Sniezek & Henry, 1989). This paper examines the communication of confidence in interacting groups in two ways: by observing the performance of interacting groups for which confidence is anticipated to be communicated with high accuracy, and by observing the effects of changes in the group interaction setting that vary group members' ability to communicate confidence. This is achieved by examining the performance of a special type of interacting group, a laboratory financial market, that encourages relatively accurate communication of confidence and that can be modified to manipulate the extent to which confidence can be communicated. Results reveal generally high performance of groups which interact in settings that are conducive to communication of confidence, and significant learning from the interaction process by all group members (including the best member). Results also indicate a significant decrease in the performance of groups whose ability to communicate confidence during interaction is reduced.     

The Role of Individual Differences in the Accuracy of Confidence Judgments

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in under-confidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.     

The Effects of Subject-Defined Categories on Judgmental Accuracy in Confidence Assessment Tasks

The accuracy of confidence judgments can be determined using measures of discrimination and calibration. The present paper utilizes a new assessment methodology that decomposes the confidence assessment task, allowing us to investigate discrimination and calibration skills in greater depth than has been done in previous studies. Researchers investigating the goodness of confidence judgments have typically grouped forecasters' assessments into experimenter-defined categories, generally in equal widths of .10. In the present research, subjects created their own categories and later assigned confidence judgments to the categories, separating the tasks of discriminating categories (discrimination) and assigning numbers to categories (calibration). Further, the typical assessment procedure assumes that subjects are able to discriminate equally across the confidence scale. Since subjects in the present study defined their own assessment categories, they could locate those categories at any point on the scale. A final issue of interest was whether subjects were able to determine accurately the number of categories into which they could discriminate. Sixty subjects performed 1 of 2 tasks, general knowledge or forecasting, in both relatively easy and relatively hard conditions. Results showed a trade-off in performance: Calibration generally became worse as the number of categories increased, while discrimination generally improved. Overall accuracy was not affected by the number of categories used. Further, subjects partitioned categories more at the high end of the scale. Finally, measures showed that subjects were not accurate in their beliefs about their own discrimination ability.     

Using Estimates of the Output Productivity Ratio (SDp) to Improve the Accuracy and Managerial Acceptance of Utility Analysis Estimates

This study compared nursing supervisors' percentile estimates (15th, 50th, and 85th) of staff nurse performance made in terms of dollar value and two alternative metrics—output (number of patients cared for) and staffing (number of nurses required to staff a unit). Of the three estimation procedures, nursing supervisors were most confident in the accuracy of their output-based estimates and least confident in the accuracy of their dollar value-based estimates. Estimates of the standard deviation of performance as a percentage of mean performance (SDp) ranged from 19% for the staffing-based estimate to 29% for the output-based estimate. Contrary to expectations, dollar value-based SDp estimates were only minimally correlated with staffing- and output-based SDp estimates. I conclude that allowing supervisors to make percentile estimates in terms of familiar metrics has potential value for improving the accuracy and managerial acceptability of utility analysis.     

Neurocognitive Impairment in Early Adolescence Following Prenatal Alcohol Exposure of Varying Duration

The aims of the study were, first, to perform a comprehensive assessment of neurocognitive status in early adolescence of children exposed to alcohol prenatally; and, second, to examine whether duration of exposure continues to be predictive of outcome at this age. Twenty-seven exposed 12-14-year-olds and 39 nonexposed 13-14-year-olds underwent neuropsychological assessments (WISC-III, NEPSY subtests) of attention and executive functions, language, visuomotor functions, and memory. The group of non-exposed children was used to develop preliminary test norms for the 13-14-year-old exposed children whereas published test norms could be used for the 12-year-olds. The results demonstrated neurocognitive impairment across all types of tasks. Impairment varied in degree according to the duration of alcohol exposure. Children exposed throughout pregnancy, most of who had diagnoses of Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) or Fetal Alcohol Effects (FAE), performed well below the average range. It was concluded that the neurocognitive effects of alcohol exposure tend to be widespread and generalized. Attention and executive functions do not seem to be selectively affected. Further, the relationship between duration of prenatal alcohol exposure and neurocognitive development continues to be significant in early adolescence.     

Accuracy of Effect Size Estimates From Published Psychological Experiments Involving Multiple Trials

The reporting of exaggerated effect size estimates may occur either through researchers accepting statistically significant results when power is inadequate and/or from repeated measures approaches aggregating, averaging multiple items, or multiple trials. Monte-Carlo simulations with input of a small, medium, or large effect size were conducted on multiple items or trials that were either averaged or aggregated to create a single dependent measure. Alpha was set at the .05 level, and the trials were assessed over item or trial correlations ranging from 0 to 1. Simulations showed a large increase in observed effect size averages and the power to accept these estimates as statistically significant increased over numbers of trials or items. Overestimation effects were mitigated as correlations between trials increased but still remained substantial in some cases. The implications of these findings for meta-analyses and different research scenarios are discussed.     

The Influence of Perpetrator Exposure Time and Weapon Presence/Timing on Eyewitness Confidence and Accuracy

Crimes can occur in a matter of seconds, with little time available for an eyewitness to encode a perpetrator's face. The presence of a weapon can further exacerbate this situation. Few studies have featured mock crimes of short duration, especially with a weapon manipulation. We conducted an experiment to investigate the impact of weapon presence and short perpetrator exposure times (3 vs. 10 seconds) on eyewitness confidence and accuracy. We found that recall concerning the perpetrator was worse when a weapon was present, replicating the weapon focus effect. However, there was no effect on eyewitness identification accuracy. Calibration analyses revealed that all conditions produced a strong confidence–accuracy relationship. Confidence–accuracy characteristic curves illustrated almost perfect accuracy for suspect identifications at the highest levels of confidence. We conclude that weapon presence during a brief crime does not necessarily result in negative consequences for either eyewitness identification accuracy or the confidence–accuracy relationship. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

学生提取自信度判断准确性的发展

采用3×3×2(年龄,材料,性别)三因素混合实验设计,按照学习成绩好、中、差分层随机选取小二、初二、大二学生被试各18名,其中男女各半,利用不同难度的材料,对被试提取自信度准确性的发展进行了考察。被试的判断等级与被试的记忆成绩之间的两点距随年龄而变化。而这种变化在不同难度间有不同的表现。(1)提取自信度准确性从小二到初二发展迅速,表现出显著差异;初二到大二阶段年龄差异不显著。材料难度对不同年级的被试提取自信度判断准确性的影响不同。材料难度越小,提取自信度准确性发展得越早。(2)提取自信度准确性发展的性别差异不显著。     

Confidence and Eyewitness Identifications: The Cross‐Race Effect,Decision Time and Accuracy

Participants encountered same‐race and cross‐race faces at encoding, completed a series of line‐up identification tests and provided confidence ratings by using one of nine different confidence scales. Confidence was less well calibrated with identification accuracy when participants selected a cross‐race than a same‐race face because of overconfidence. By contrast, there was no cross‐race effect on confidence–accuracy calibration when participants responded ‘not present’. Whereas confidence was a very strong predictor of accuracy for fast identifications of a line‐up face, this was much less the case for slower decisions. Highly confident identifications showed a dramatic drop in accuracy from faster decisions to slower decisions, whereas there was little change in accuracy between faster and slower decisions for moderately confident or weakly confident identifications. Finally, we observed little influence of the format of the nine different confidence scales: numerical and verbal scales produced comparable calibration scores, as did scales with few or many points. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Credibility of Asylum Claims: Consistency and Accuracy of Autobiographical Memory Reports Following Trauma

Herlihy and colleagues (current issue) review the literature on the characteristics of autobiographical memory in asylum seekers who are presenting evidence of their traumatic experiences in the immigration courts with a view to finding a safe haven. In this commentary, I briefly discuss how the quality of the memory report may influence reliability and credibility judgements in individuals whose memories may be subject to post‐traumatic stress disorder. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.