Post-16 course choice: A challenge for guidance

Some of the findings of a study of young people who had left post-16 education prematurely or switched courses are discussed. The experiences of those who had switched or dropped out from courses once only are compared with those who changed courses several times. The main influences on the young people's decisions, the extent to which they felt prepared for their transitions, and their views of career education and guidance before the end of year 11 and at their post-16 destination, are examined. The findings provide some support for the beneficial effects of career education, but for many it seemed that career education and guidance had little impact. Parents, teachers, friends and the judgements of the young people themselves appeared to be more influential than guidance practitioners on choice of destination. It is argued that it may be unrealistic to expect guidance alone to fully prepare young people for post-compulsory education, particularly when institutional constraints often require premature closures on choices. Some respondents recognised this, and in some ways their limited expectations of career guidance were realistic. It is also argued that from young people's perspectives, at least, switching courses often has positive benefits.     

Models and mosaics: Investigating cross-cultural differences in risk perception and risk preference

In this article, we describe a multistudy project designed to explain observed cross-national differences in risk taking between respondents from the People’s Republic of China and the United States. Using this example, we develop the following recommendations for cross-cultural investigations. First, like all psychological research, cross-cultural studies should be model based. Investigators should commit themselves to a model of the behavior under study that explicitly specifies possible causal constructs or variables hypothesized to influence the behavior, as well as the relationship between those variables, and allows for individual, group, or cultural differences in the value of these variables or in the relationship between them. This moves the focus from a simple demonstration of cross-national differences toward a prediction of the behavior, including its cross-national variation. Ideally, the causal construct hypothesized and shown to differ between cultures should be demonstrated to serve as a moderator or a mediator between culture and observed behavioral differences. Second, investigators should look for converging evidence for hypothesized cultural effects on behavior by looking at multiple dependent variables and using multiple methodological approaches. Thus, the data collection that will allow for the establishment of conclusive causal connections between a cultural variable and some target behavior can be compared with the creation of a mosaic.     

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.     

Of matchers and maximizers: How competition shapes choice under risk and uncertainty

In a world of limited resources, scarcity and rivalry are central challenges for decision makers—animals foraging for food, corporations seeking maximal profits, and athletes training to win, all strive against others competing for the same goals. In this article, we establish the role of competitive pressures for the facilitation of optimal decision making in simple sequential binary choice tasks. In two experiments, competition was introduced with a computerized opponent whose choice behavior reinforced one of two strategies: If the opponent probabilistically imitated participant choices, probability matching was optimal; if the opponent was indifferent, probability maximizing was optimal. We observed accurate asymptotic strategy use in both conditions irrespective of the provision of outcome probabilities, suggesting that participants were sensitive to the differences in opponent behavior. An analysis of reinforcement learning models established that computational conceptualizations of opponent behavior are critical to account for the observed divergence in strategy adoption. Our results provide a novel appraisal of probability matching and show how this individually ‘irrational’ choice phenomenon can be socially adaptive under competition.     

Ignorance or integration: the cognitive processes underlying choice behavior

The fast‐and‐frugal heuristic framework assumes noncompensatory tools for human preferences (i.e., priority heuristic) and inferences (i.e., take the best heuristic). According to this framework, these heuristics predict choice behavior as well as model the cognitive processes underlying such behavior. The current paper presents two studies that juxtapose predictions derived from these two simple heuristics with alternative predictions derived from compensatory principles. Dependent measures that included reaction time, choice pattern, confidence level, and accuracy were better predicted by compensatory indices than by noncompensatory indices. These findings suggest that people do not rely on limited arguments only, but tend to integrate all acquired information into their choice processes. This tendency was replicated even when the experimental task facilitated the use of noncompensatory principles. We argue that the fast and frugal heuristics can predict the final outcome only under certain conditions, but even in these particular situations they are not applicable to the processes underlying choice behavior. An integrative model for choice behavior is proposed that better represents the data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emotion regulation and risk taking: Predicting risky choice in deliberative decision making

Only very recently has research demonstrated that experimentally induced emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression) affect risky choice (e.g., Heilman et al., 2010). However, it is unknown whether this effect also operates via habitual use of emotion regulation strategies in risky choice involving deliberative decision making. We investigated the role of habitual use of emotion regulation strategies in risky choice using the “cold” deliberative version of the Columbia Card Task (CCT; Figner et al., 2009). Fifty-three participants completed the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ; Gross & John, 2003) and—one month later—the CCT and the PANAS. Greater habitual cognitive reappraisal use was related to increased risk taking, accompanied by decreased sensitivity to changes in probability and loss amount. Greater habitual expressive suppression use was related to decreased risk taking. The results show that habitual use of reappraisal and suppression strategies predict risk taking when decisions involve predominantly cognitive-deliberative processes.     

Modeling effects of risk and social distance on vaccination choice

Despite vaccines' consistently demonstrated effectiveness, vaccination rates remain suboptimal due to vaccine refusal. Low vaccination rates are particularly problematic for individuals who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons and thus must rely on herd immunity (i.e., protection of vulnerable individuals due to the high rate of vaccination of other—often socially distant—individuals). The current study uses a novel decision‐making task to examine how three variables impacted participants' highest acceptable probability of side effects to their children: 1) the severity of the side effects their children experience, 2) the social distance to the beneficiary of the vaccination, and 3) the probability that the vaccine will prevent disease for that designated beneficiary. Participants' willingness to risk potential side effects of vaccination systematically decreased as the 1) effectiveness of the vaccination decreased, 2) the beneficiary of the vaccination became more socially distant, and 3) the severity of side effects increased. These data were well‐described by behavioral economic models used to examine the discounting of other health behavior.     

Children by choice or by chance: The perceived effects of parity

In a study examining inferences made about couples based on their choice whether or not to have children, college undergraduates projected 1-year and 25-year life situations for a hypothetical couple who either (1) neither had nor wished to have children, (2) were presented without any reference to children, or (3) already had two children. This manipulation notwithstanding, most couples were projected as becoming parents. Female subjects saw having children as enhancing the quality of life of both partners, while males took the opposite view.     

家庭抗逆力理论在风险应对领域的应用：演变、价值及挑战

家庭抗逆力理论是近年来风险应对研究领域中被引最高的理论之一。该理论的提出源自McCubbin等人对军人家庭应对战争危机的观察与思考,得益于早期学者对家庭压力和家庭系统理论的探究。经数次修订后,该理论经历了由静态特征到动态变化的发展过程,形成了一个具有较广泛内涵与外延的理论体系。其早期应用集中于创伤修复、家庭压力应对等主题,之后涉及复原力等更丰富的研究议题,已成为临床干预工作的实践导引和COVID-19大流行以来国家和社会、家庭和个体层面“危机事件—适应能力”关系的重要解释机制。其应用面临来自元理论研究、方法学及跨文化与社会变迁观点的挑战。未来研究应明晰概念与整合模型、使用混合方法与制定评估指标体系、强化家庭抗逆力理论的本土化研究与构建中国特色家庭抗逆力理论体系。     

Visual search of driving situations: danger and experience

Previous research on visual search in driving suffers from a number of problems: small sample sizes, a concentration on mundane situations, and a failure to link results to more general psychological theory. The study reported in this paper addresses these issues by recording the eye movements of a large sample of drivers while they watched films of dangerous driving situations and comparing the findings with those from more general studies on scene perception. Stimuli were classified according to the types of road shown and the degree of danger present in the scenes. Two groups of subjects took part, fifty-one young novice drivers who had just gained a full driving licence and twenty-six older more experienced drivers. Dangerous situations were characterised by a narrowing of visual search, shown by an increase in fixation durations, a decrease in saccade angular distances, and a reduction in the variance of fixation locations. These effects are similar to the concept of 'attention focusing' in traumatic situations as it is described in the literature on eyewitness memory. When road types are compared, the least visually complex rural roads attracted the longest fixation durations and the shortest angular saccade distances, while the most visually complex urban roads attracted the greatest spread of search but the shortest fixation durations. Differences between the groups of subjects were also present. Novices had longer fixation durations than experienced drivers, particularly in dangerous situations. Experienced drivers also fixated lower down and had less vertical variance in fixation locations than novices.     

Models for response-response compatibility: The effects of the relation between responses in a choice task

A simple model is presented that consists of a stimulus-discrimination module and a motor-programming module. The motor-programming module is intended to account for RR-compatibility effects in different types of task. In combination with the stimulus-discrimination module, it is applied to a choice-RT task in which subjects have to perform rapid movements with the left or right hand in response to a left or right signal. The spatio-temporal patterns of the movements that have to be performed with the one or the other hand can be same or different. In the model the relation between the responses is mapped on the strength of inhibitory crosstalk between concurrent processes of motor programming. The stimulus-discrimination module implements a variant of an accumulator model or a random-walk model, and the transmission of information to the programming module can be continuous or discrete. Data that were generated by a model with discrete transmission were inconsistent with available experimental data. With continuous transmission, RR-compatibility effects can result from inhibitory crosstalk during concurrent processes of motor programming after presentation of the response signal and/or from the limiting effect of crosstalk on the level of pre-programming.     

Factors affecting choice of signaled or unsignaled food schedules

Choice between signaled and unsignaled food schedules was assessed in two experiments using a shuttlebox. Experiment 1 examined preference with both a five-second signal and a thirty-second signal. Subjects preferred the unsignaled side with a five-second signal but preferred the signaled side with a thirty-second signal. Experiment 2 assessed preference using either a commitment procedure (a shuttle response resulted in exposure to the schedule for a fixed time) or a noncommitment procedure (each shuttle response changed the schedule in effect). Subjects preferred the signaled condition with the commitment procedure but the unsignaled condition with the noncommitment procedure. These results indicate that the discrepant findings of earlier studies are due to procedural differences involving signal duration and choice commitment. The data are consistent with a conditioned reinforcement interpretation of choice.     

Predicting risk sensitivity in humans and lower animals: risk as variance or coefficient of variation

This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk preference, the superiority of the CV over variance in predicting risk taking is not as strong. Two experiments show that people's risk sensitivity becomes strongly proportional to the CV when they learn about choice alternatives like other animals, by experiential sampling over time. Experience-based choices differ from choices when outcomes and probabilities are numerically described. Zipf's law as an ecological regularity and Weber's law as a psychological regularity may give rise to the CV as a measure of risk.