Impact of the Political Context on Foreign Policy Decision-Making

One of the most pressing concerns in the study of international relations today is to develop a systematic account of the impact of domestic politics on foreign policy. This paper argues that domestic politics frequently influences foreign policy through a process of decision-making that grows out of the decision-maker's awareness of the requirements for effective action in the political context. It is therefore necessary to develop a theory that can explain how the political context's characteristic features affect decision-makers' thinking. In attempting to combine insights culled from the literature on political decision-making with psychological theories of decision-making processes, this paper offers a first step toward such a theory.     

Prime Minister Leadership Styles in Foreign Policy Decision-Making: A Framework for Research

Although the institutional contexts of prime ministers in parliamentary democracies and of U.S. presidents are very different, both types of executive leaders influence the decision-making processes through their leadership styles. Leadership style includes how the leaders relate to those around them, how they like to receive information, and how they make up their minds. While there are numerous empirical studies and theoretical frameworks on the leadership styles of U.S. presidents, few studies of prime ministers are concerned with personality and styles of leadership. This paper reviews the literature on U.S. presidential styles and on organizational leadership in order to construct a framework for the study of prime minister leadership styles. Components of the proposed framework are illustrated with examples of British prime ministers and German chancellors. In addition, categories of dependent variables to be explained by leadership style are discussed. I argue that leadership style has the greatest impact on the decision-making process and that although the direct effect of leadership style on foreign policy behavior is less, leadership style indirectly influences foreign policy through the decision-making process.     

Culture Is More than a Static Residual: Introduction to the Special Section on Culture and Foreign Policy

The literature on international relations frequently refers to culture in broad, macro-level ways to explain what cannot be explained by economic or military power. The assumptions that culture is simple, uniform and the opposite of power are, in the view of the authors, erroneous. Also, the authors note that there is a lack of scholarly interaction among psychologists interested in cross-cultural phenomena and international relations specialists interested in questions of identity and foreign policy. As an introduction to a special section on culture and foreign policy, this article calls for more communication among these scholarly communities; provides a set of observations about foreign policy and culture understood as a complex, dynamic concept; and calls for specific kinds of studies to better understand foreign policy in the context of cultural complexity and richness.     

Worldviews in Foreign Policy: Realism, Liberalism, and External Conflict

International relations studies have been unable to determine whether realist or liberal theories better fit state behavior in various situations, possibly because these studies have attributed motive and action to the states rather than to the decision-makers within them. This article develops a new, more direct approach to resolving this problem. Hypotheses were tested regarding conditions under which decision-makers are likely to articulate a problem representation consistent with liberal or realist elements of a worldview. This was done by content analysis of statements about 36 foreign conflicts by the governments of three "bystander" nations—the United States, Canada, and India—over a 16-year period. The findings indicate that systemic and situational factors are far more important than domestic factors. States tend to represent wars in congruence with liberalism primarily when their security is already assured by another power or when the conflict does not involve allies, rivals, or fellow democracies. Thus, most of the expectations of realism are supported at the psychological level.     

心理资本对大学生职业决策困难的影响:有调节的中介模型

本研究提出一个有调节的中介模型,揭示了心理资本"怎样"影响大学生职业决策困难及这种影响在不同个体中是否存在差异。采用心理资本量表、职业决策自我效能感量表、社会技能量表和职业决策困难量表对730名大学生进行研究。研究显示：（1）职业决策自我效能感部分中介了心理资本与大学生职业决策困难的关系;（2）社会技能调节了心理资本通过职业决策自我效能感影响大学生职业决策困难的中介过程的前半路径和后半路径。研究结论对促进大学生成功就业具有重要的理论与实证价值。     

认知风格对大学生不确定条件下判断和决策的影响

通过3个实验,研究了认知风格对大学生不确定条件下判断和决策的影响。结果表明:(1)认知风格影响大学生在不确定条件下的判断和决策,表现在概率推理中,场依存型比场独立型更容易受“代表性启发”影响。在赌徒推理中,场独立型更少受“赌徒谬误”影响。在风险决策中,场独立型倾向选择受益大、风险也大的决策,场依存型倾向选择稳妥、风险较小的决策。(2)大学生在概率推理、赌徒推理和风险决策时存在显著的性别差异。(3)概率知识学习有助于克服“代表性启发”,但对“赌徒谬误”影响不大。     

Images and Policy Preferences

This article reports the results of an experiment that tests the independent and interactive effects of two dimensions of international images: perceived historial relationship and cultural differences. Priming techniques are used to manipulate images in subjects who are involved in a simulated international conflict. Dependent variables include attitudes and behaviors, the latter in the form of policy preferences arranged on a cooperative-conflictual continuum. The results indicate that images do matter. When the perceived relationship is hostile, subjects develop more negative attitudes toward their opponents and choose more conflictual policies. Cultural differences produce more negative attitudes in all conditions but result in more negative policy selections only when the perceived relationship is hostile. In other words, in considering policy moves, cultural differences exacerbate conflict between enemies, but make no difference between friends, in spite of the negative outgroup attitudes they elicit.     

内隐自尊和风险偏好对大学生职业决策的影响

为研究影响大学生职业决策的影响因素和决策有效性,实验一、二分别从决策者心理特征（内隐自尊与风险偏好）和职业方案特征（框架效应与风险水平）入手,考察二者对大学生职业决策行为的影响。结果发现：内隐自尊和风险偏好的高低显著影响大学生择业倾向性;大学生对风险水平不同的职业方案的选择倾向由低到高依次为冒险、折中、保守方案;职业决策存在明显的框架效应。研究表明,大多数大学生倾向于选择保守的职业方案;高风险偏好的大学生倾向于选择冒险的职业方案;高内隐自尊大学生倾向于主动择业;积极表述的职业方案更受大学生所青睐。     

Loss Aversion and Foreign Policy Resolve

This article draws upon recent findings from the field of neuroscience to explore how loss aversion affects foreign policy resolve. We theorize that U.S. policy makers are more resolute in pursuing preventive policies that seek to avoid losses than they are in pursuing promotive policies that seek to acquire new gains. To test our theory, we conduct the first large‐n analysis of foreign policy hypotheses derived from the neuroscience of loss aversion using data from 100 cases of U.S.‐initiated Section 301 trade disputes. The results provide strong support for the loss‐aversion‐based theory, revealing that American policy makers are willing to fight harder and hold out longer in trade disputes with preventive objectives than they are in cases with promotive ones. Our study demonstrates that hypotheses derived from neuroscientific findings can be tested using large‐n techniques in study of foreign policy, revealing a new avenue of inquiry within the field.     

信息外部表征形式对初中生学习决策框架效应的影响

333名初中生被分配到基于描述表征的两种条件下,分别对获得框架与损失框架下的风险回避类与风险寻求类学习时间选项进行抉择,以探讨信息外部表征对学习决策框架效应的影响.结果表明:1)在基于描述表征的条件下,学习决策领域中存在框架效应,但有其领域特殊性,被试在获得框架中无明显决策偏向,但在损失框架中的决策明显偏向风险寻求.2)在基于经验表征的条件下,学习决策不存在框架效应.无论是在获得框架还是损失框架中的学习决策均不存在明显的偏向.     

焦虑情绪对决策的影响

焦虑情绪会对人类的决策行为及其结果产生深刻的影响,其中最突出的表现是,焦虑水平的提高会使决策者倾向于回避风险,做出保守的选择。近年来,国外研究者从不同的角度分析这一现象的原因,归纳出了几种可能的影响因素——包括认知资源因素、信息加工因素、概率偏向因素与情绪取向因素等。这些因素的提出,促进了对焦虑影响决策的机制的认识。它们间虽有密切联系,但有待于整合成为一个统一的体系     

Gender Identity Development and Career Decision-Making Process among High School Learners

Previous studies reveal an inconsistent picture of identity formation for both genders. This study investigated gender differences in identity formation (identity statuses) and career decision-making process among Black South African high school learners. A sample of 156 Grade 12 learners (males = 60, females = 96; mean age = 17.7) participated in the study. Participants completed the Revised Extended Objective Measure of Ego Identity Status (Bennion & Adams, 1986) and the Study Choice Task Inventory (Germeijs & Verschueren, 2006). Males and females were similar in identity formation and career decision-making process. Given that nowadays females are encouraged to consider both stereotypically female plus male paths of career development, gender appears to play less influential role in career decision making.     

产品类别与网上购物决策过程的关系

产品的分类方法有很多,在网络购物环境中,应用较广的是将产品分为搜索产品、体验产品和信任产品;在传统购物环境中,应用较广的是将产品分为日用品、选购品和特殊产品。文献的研究结果表明,消费者在网上购买不同类别的产品时,网上购物决策过程中的信息搜索、网上购物意愿和偏好等行为存在着许多不同之处,文章对此进行了详细的介绍,并对今后的研究方向提出了建议     

逃生决策中的信息源直觉和分析对采纳偏向的影响

选取82名被试,探讨在突发危急事件的逃生判断和决策中人们对不同信息源的采纳偏向,同时探讨直觉和分析两种思维倾向以及直觉和分析两种决策风格对逃生判断和决策中信息源采纳的影响。结果：（1）在模拟突发危急事件的逃生判断和决策中人们对不同信息源的采纳倾向存在明显差异,来自权威、熟悉以及具有高信任度的信息源更容易被采纳;（2）直觉性思维倾向启动条件下和分析性思维倾向启动条件下的信息源采纳倾向差异不明显;（3）直觉型决策风格对信息源的采纳倾向具有明显预测性,而分析型决策风格对信息源的采纳倾向不具有明显预测性。主要结论     

抑郁对社会决策的影响

从社会决策角度出发,依托博弈论的经典范式是研究抑郁症病人人际与社会功能障碍的一个切入点。Ruff和Fehr （2014）提出在社会决策中存在三类情境,即社会反馈、替代性评价、社会原则。我们从这个理论框架出发,发现抑郁症病人在社会反馈加工中存在社会性快感缺失,对社会拒绝的敏感性增强;在替代性评价过程中,共情和心理理论能力减弱;抑郁症病人对决策中的社会原则（公平、合作）存在适应不良现象,如过度利他性。未来的研究一方面可进一步探索抑郁症病人的社会性快感缺失现象,另一方面可采用经颅电/磁刺激与脑成像技术结合或超扫描技术,提高研究结果的解释力和生态效度。     

自恋与决策的研究现状及展望

目前, 自恋与决策的研究主要依托实验室任务进行, 涉及赌博、投资和管理等领域的决策行为。大部分研究结果表明, 自恋者在上述实验任务中都表现出明显的决策偏差与风险决策, 但也有研究证实了某些情境下其决策的有效性。自恋与决策的理论模型主要包括人格特质模型、自我调节模型、归因模型与趋近回避模型等, 未来研究应注意方法的改进、自恋的积极功能、情绪的作用以及文化的影响。     

Military Ethical Decision Making: The Effects of Option Choice and Perspective Taking on Moral Decision-Making Processes and Intentions

We investigated the ethical decision-making processes and intentions of 151 military personnel responding to 1 of 2 ethical scenarios drawn from the deployment experiences of military commanders. For each scenario, option choice and perspective affected decision-making processes. Differences were also found between the 2 scenarios. Results add to the emerging literature concerning operational ethical conflicts and highlight the complexity and challenge that often accompanies operational ethics.     

动态重复决策中先前结果对风险偏好的影响

在没有轮次限制的轮盘赌任务中考察了先前一轮及多轮的决策结果对后续决策风险偏好的影响模式, 结果表明：(1)无论盈亏, 前一轮获益或损失的程度越大后一轮的风险偏好越大; (2)先前获益后, 接下来的下注投入的金额小于先前一轮的获益金额, 先前损失后, 接下来的下注的潜在获益金额大于先前一轮的损失金额。实验结果定量地验证和拓展了私房钱效应(house money effect)和保本效应(break even effect), 在此基础上归纳出了动态重复决策中“决策前景与先前结果合并后规避损失”的决策标准, 即当决策情景具有重复性且可以自由制定决策方案时, 决策的标准是使得先前一次的获益(或损失)与下一次决策的潜在损失(或获益)合并后可以规避损失。实验结果还表明决策者仅合并最近一次的先前结果而不会合并先前连续获益或损失的结果。     

决策任务类型与结果框架对风险决策的影响

本研究考察生命和金钱问题下,获得和损失框架中决策任务类型对风险决策的影响。采用2（任务领域：生命、金钱）×2（决策任务类型：经验、描述）×2（结果框架：获得、损失）被试间设计,使用卡方检验及logistic回归分析后发现：生命和金钱问题下,个体在直接给出方案可能结果的描述性决策中仅表现出损失框架下的风险偏好;在通过自主查看方案可能结果的经验性决策中未发现结果框架作用。描述−经验差距一致性存在于生命和金钱问题中。