Evolving judgments of terror risks: foresight, hindsight, and emotion: a reanalysis

The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective. A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them-both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public.     

Why it won't happen to me: perceptions of risk factors and susceptibility

Four studies were conducted with college student subjects to examine: (1) perceptions of susceptibility to health and safety risks; (2) factors that subjects see as important in determining their susceptibility; and (3) subjects' actual standing on objective risk factors. Subjects were generally unbiased about hereditary risk factors and were even somewhat pessimistic about environmental risk factors. Their views of their own actions and psychological attributes, however, were excessively optimistic. Few acknowledged actions or psychological attributes that increased their risk. This pattern of findings helps to explain why risks thought to be controllable (i.e., preventable by personal action) are likely to evoke unrealistic optimism about susceptibility. Family histories of health problems were incorporated into judgments of susceptibility, but, except for smoking, correlations between behavioral risk factors and judgments of susceptibility were surprisingly weak. Self-esteem enhancement is suggested as a motive that could explain many of the present findings. Several recommendations are offered for health campaigns that seek to produce more realistic perceptions of susceptibility to health and safety problems.     

Freedom,moral responsibility,and the failure of universal defeat

Proponents of manipulation arguments against compatibilism hold that manipulation scope (how many agents are manipulated) and manipulation type (whether the manipulator intends that an agent perform a particular action) do not impact judgments about free will and moral responsibility. Many opponents of manipulation arguments agree that manipulation scope has no impact but hold that manipulation type does. Recent work by Latham and Tierney (2022, 2023) found that people's judgments were sensitive to manipulation scope: people judged that an agent was less free and responsible when a manipulation was existential (impacting at least one but not all agents) than when the manipulation was universal (impacting every agent). This study examines people's judgements about existential and universal manipulation cases that involve both intentional and non-intentional outcomes. We found that manipulation scope also affects people's free will and responsibility judgments in manipulation cases involving both intentional and non-intentional outcomes. Interestingly, we also found that manipulation type influences the effect that manipulation scope has on people's free will judgments but not their moral responsibility judgments, which indicates that people's free will and responsibility judgments can come apart. This puts pressure on the prevalent assumption that judgments about free will and moral responsibility are conceptually bound together.     

Fetal Risks,Relative Risks,and Relatives' Risks

Several factors related to fetal risk render it more or less acceptable in justifying constraints on the behavior of pregnant women. Risk is an unavoidable part of pregnancy and childbirth, one that women must balance against other vital personal and family interests. Two particular issues relate to the fairness of claims that pregnant women are never entitled to put their fetuses at risk: relative risks and relatives' risks. The former have been used—often spuriously—to advance arguments against activities, such as home birth, that may incur risk; the latter implicate the nature of relationships in determining the acceptability of coercing or precluding activities. Motivated reasoning by clinicians and judges leads to inaccurate risk assessments, and judgments based on false claims to objectivity. Such judgments undermine the moral and legal standing of pregnant women and do not advance the interests of fetuses, pregnant women, families, or states.     

Implications of fear of negative evaluation,state anxiety,and implied level of target-dominance on perceptions of personality traits

ABSTRACT

Fear of negative evaluation (FNE), state anxiety (SA), and dominance have consequences for social functioning. The present study assessed how FNE, SA, and a target’s dominance-relevant label are related to perceptions of personality. One hundred seventy-eight participants who scored high or low on FNE underwent a laboratory manipulation of SA, viewed a photograph of a target with a high or low dominance-relevant label, and rated the target on the Big Five personality traits and dominance. FNE and SA were unrelated to perceptions, but the high-dominance label was associated with perceptions of higher dominance, conscientiousness, and openness. In conclusion, judges did use information about others when making initial judgments of personality, but these judgments were not impacted by trait or state psychological distress.     

Two routes toward optimism: how agentic and communal themes in autobiographical memories guide optimism for the future

Autobiographical memories are particularly adaptive because they function not only to preserve the past, but also to direct our future thoughts and behaviours. Two studies were conducted to examine how communal and agentic themes of positive autobiographical memories differentially predicted the route from autobiographical memories to optimism for the future. Across two studies, results revealed that the degree to which participants focused on communal themes in their autobiographical memories predicted their experience of nostalgia. In turn, the experience of nostalgia increased participants’ levels of self-esteem and in turn, optimism for the future. By contrast, the degree to which participants focused on agentic themes in their memories predicted self-esteem and optimism, operating outside the experience of nostalgia. These effects remained even after controlling for self-focused attention. Together, these studies provide greater understanding of the interrelations among autobiographical memory, self-concept, and time, and demonstrate how agency and communion operate to influence perceptions of one’s future when thinking about the past.     

Revision in memories of relationship development: Do biases persist over time?

Partners often recall that their relationship satisfaction has improved over the recent past, even when their satisfaction has actually declined, and such perceptions appear to contribute to optimism about the future. But what happens to memories as the recent past recedes into the distant past? To address this question, data were examined from a U.S. sample of 53 newlywed couples. Every 6 months, spouses reported their memories of relationship change. After 2½ years, they again reported their memories of change over these time periods. Initially, spouses recalled significant improvements over each interval, even though no improvements were observed. By the end of 2½ years, however, they had revised their memories, recalling improvements only in the recent past. Such revisions have implications for research relying on self‐reported relationship change and suggest a way for spouses to benefit from the perception of recent improvement while maintaining a generally accurate view of the course of the relationship overall.     

The forensic confirmation bias: Problems,perspectives, and proposed solutions

As illustrated by the mistaken, high-profile fingerprint identification of Brandon Mayfield in the Madrid Bomber case, and consistent with a recent critique by the National Academy of Sciences (2009), it is clear that the forensic sciences are subject to contextual bias and fraught with error. In this article, we describe classic psychological research on primacy, expectancy effects, and observer effects, all of which indicate that context can taint people's perceptions, judgments, and behaviors. Then we describe recent studies indicating that confessions and other types of information can set into motion forensic confirmation biases that corrupt lay witness perceptions and memories as well as the judgments of experts in various domains of forensic science. Finally, we propose best practices that would reduce bias in the forensic laboratory as well as its influence in the courts.     

Likelihood judgment based on previously observed outcomes: the alternative-outcomes effect in a learning paradigm

Previous research has demonstrated that intuitive perceptions of certainty regarding a focal outcome are sensitive to variations in how evidence supporting nonfocal alternatives is distributed, even when such variations have no bearing on objective probability. We investigated this alternative-outcomes effect in a learning paradigm in which participants made likelihood judgments on the basis of their memory for past observations of relevant outcomes. In Experiment 1, a manipulation of evidence (observed frequencies) across alternative outcomes influenced not only intuitive certainty estimates about a focal outcome but also numeric subjective probabilities. Experiment 2 ruled out the possibility that these effects were attributable to the influence of information loss on frequency estimations. The findings were consistent with the heuristic comparison account, which suggests that the judged likelihood of a focal outcome will be disproportionately influenced by the strength (frequency) of the strongest alternative outcome.     

Gender,sexual harassment,workplace violence,and risk assessment:: Convergence around psychiatric staff's perceptions of personal safety

This paper reviews literature in sexual harassment, workplace violence, and risk assessment as it relates to staff in psychiatric and forensic work environments. These three areas of research overlap in their applicability to psychiatric staff in that each addresses the understanding and management of types of violence to which many staff, particularly women, are likely to be exposed while working. Employee well-being, encompassing mental and physical health, job satisfaction, and morale, has been shown to be closely tied to organizational productivity and cost. In addition, gender has been shown to be an important factor in perceptions and decision-making, and prior work has suggested that female staff often have qualitatively different experiences in traditional male workplaces such as inpatient and forensic settings. Despite these findings, research to date on psychiatric staff has typically focused only on number of assaults by patients. It has not addressed how staff's gender may impact their perceptions of personal safety and judgments of risk from patients, nor have any empirical studies been performed in naturalistic settings to investigate this issue. Given the high correlation between organizational productivity and employee well-being, it is mutually beneficial to both employers and staff to examine current understanding of how certain staff variables such as gender may influence their feelings of safety and judgments of risk from patients.     

Strong memories are hard to scale

People are generally skilled at using a confidence scale to rate the strength of their memories over a wide range. Specifically, low-confidence recognition decisions are often associated with close-to-chance accuracy, whereas high-confidence recognition decisions can be associated with close-to-perfect accuracy. However, using a 20-point rating scale, the authors found that the ability to scale memory strength had its limitations in that a high proportion of list items received the highest rating of 20. Efforts to induce participants to differentiate between these strong memories using emphatic instructions and alternative scales were not successful. Remember/know judgments indicated that these strong and hard-to-scale memories were often based on familiarity (not just recollection). Providing error feedback on a plurals discrimination task finally produced a high-confidence criterion shift. The authors suggest that the ability to scale strong (and almost perfectly accurate) memories may be limited because of the absence of differential error feedback for very strong memories in the past (the kind of differential error feedback that may account for the memory-scaling expertise that participants otherwise exhibit).     

Assessing the accuracy of conflicting autobiographical memories

We examined criteria that rememberers and neutral audiences use to validate conflicting memories. In Experiment 1, rememberers described an incident that they recalled differently from someone else from their own and the other person’s perspective. Rememberers and audiences then evaluated the accuracy of statements in both accounts, explained their accuracy ratings, and appraised the qualities of the memories. In Experiment 2, dyads who possessed conflicting memories of a shared past episode evaluated each other’s recollections. In both studies, rememberers rated their own recollections as more accurate than other people’s and based their judgments primarily on the internal coherence of the memories. Rememberers used consensus more frequently and sensory detail less often to evaluate other people’s memories than their own. Audiences (Experiment 1) reported examining the consistency between the accounts and their own experiences; they also used consensus and normative behavior to a greater extent than rememberers. In both studies, rememberers judged their own accounts to be more detailed and coherent. Their ratings of detail and coherence predicted their ratings of accuracy.     

Long ago it was meant to be: the interplay between time, construal, and fate beliefs

Fate means that an event was meant to be, that is, predetermined by prior unseen forces. Most people believe in fate, which seems at odds with similarly pervasive beliefs that alternative past actions would have brought about different circumstances (i.e., counterfactual beliefs). Two experiments revealed that construal level accounts for the relative plausibility of fate versus counterfactual explanations. Construal was manipulated in Experiment 1, such that goal pursuits framed in abstract ("why?") as opposed to concrete ("how?") terms heightened fate but not counterfactual attributions. Extending this finding, Experiment 2 showed that fate judgments were higher for temporally distant than recent past events, an effect mediated by construal perceptions. Neither counterfactual nor luck judgments varied with temporal distance. These findings help to explain how individuals explain complicated yet meaningful life events while extending the reach of Trope and Liberman's (2003) construal-level theory.     

Flux and permanence of risk perceptions: Tourists' perception of the relative and absolute risk for various destinations

The present investigation is a cross‐sectional, multi‐national, quantitative, and quasi‐experimental comparison of tourists’ risk perceptions regarding different destinations throughout the past decade. Over 10,000 tourists to Norway from 89 different countries filled in a questionnaire rating the perceived risk for various destinations. Data were collected during 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and allow for a comparison of perceived risk across time, place and nationality. Results show that while absolute risk judgments for different destinations fluctuate somewhat over the years, relative risk judgments remain constant. Findings also reveal a “home‐is‐safer‐then‐abroad‐bias” with tourists consistently perceiving their home country among the safest destinations. The current investigation is rare because it looks at more than one destination at a time. Insights gained from the present findings diverge from what would have been concluded from employing case studies, that is, looking at one destination at a time.     

WHAT INFLUENCES BELIEVING CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE DISCLOSURES? THE ROLES OF DEPICTED MEMORY PERSISTENCE, PARTICIPANT GENDER, TRAUMA HISTORY, AND SEXISM

This vignette study investigated factors that influence believing child sexual abuse disclosures. College student participants ( N = 318) in a university human subject pool completed measures about their own trauma history and responded to questions about sexist attitudes. Participants then read vignettes in which an adult disclosed a history of child sexual abuse, rated disclosures for accuracy and believability, and judged the level of abusiveness. Continuous memories were believed more than recovered memories. Men believed abuse reports less than did women, and people who had not experienced trauma were less likely to believe trauma reports. Gender and personal history interacted such that trauma history did not impact women's judgments but did impact men's judgments. Men with a trauma history responded similarly to women with or without a trauma history. High sexism predicted lower judgments of an event being abusive. Hostile sexism was negatively correlated with believing abuse disclosures. Results are considered in light of myths about child sexual abuse.     

The role of behavioral experience in judging risks.

This study used conditional risk assessments to examine the role of behavioral experiences in risk judgments. Adolescents and young adults (ages 10-30; N = 577) were surveyed on their risk judgments for natural hazards and behavior-linked risks, including their personal experiences with these events. Results indicated that participants who had experienced a natural disaster or engaged in a particular risk behavior estimated their chance of experiencing a negative outcome resulting from that event or behavior as less likely than individuals without such experience. These findings challenge the notion that risk judgments motivate behavior and instead suggest that risk judgments may be reflective of behavioral experiences. The results have implications for health education and risk communication.     

Relapse and risk perception among members of a smoking cessation clinic

Assessed perceptions of the health risks associated with smoking in comparison with not smoking among members of smoking cessation clinics. We measured these perceptions at three different time periods during the clinic, and then again at a 6-month follow-up. Results indicated that members who were abstinent at the follow-up had lowered their perceptions of the likelihood of contracting smoking-related illnesses (e.g., emphysema) if they were not smoking. In contrast, those who had relapsed lowered their perceptions of the health risks associated with smoking, but not their perceptions of nonsmoking disease vulnerability. The implications of these changes in risk perception for therapy involvement are discussed.     

Do you remember?: Recollections of adult attachment patterns

To determine if memory biases influence recall of attachment patterns, we examined retrospective reports of adult attachment patterns in a sample of young established couples. At time 1, participants reported their attachment patterns on a self-report attachment measure (RQ). Eight months later, participants completed the RQ to assess their current attachment patterns, as well as their memory of their attachment patterns 8 months earlier. Seventy-eight percent of participants reported that their past attachment category was consistent with their current category, and 58% of participants accurately recalled their predominant time 1 attachment category. Parallel results were obtained with continuous attachment ratings We also found strong reconstructive biases: Participants’memories of their past attachment patterns were biased by their current patterns. Secure and insecure individuals did not differ in their perceptions of stability, their accuracy of recall, or the degree to which they demonstrated a consistency bias. Finally, with few exceptions, memories for time 1 attachment ratings were not biased by current relationship satisfaction, current partner attachment ratings, or reported life events. The importance of studying reconstructive biases in the field of adult attachment is discussed.     

Comparing Children’s Memories for Negative Versus Positive Events in the Context of Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms

How well children remember negative events is not fully understood. Previous research has failed to simultaneously test memory and perceptions of memory for both negative and positive events. Children (n = 38, 7–17 years) recruited from a hospital following accidental injury were tested for their memory of an injury-producing accident (negative event) and a positive event (unexpectedly receiving a $50 gift voucher). Objective accuracy of memory, memory quality characteristics (e.g., how coherently the event was recalled), children’s judgments of their memory (meta-cognitive), and posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms were assessed 2 months post-injury. Children’s memories for their experiences were verified using witness/parent reports. Memory quality characteristics of children’s free recollection were coded with a previously used standardized system. Overall, children showed high levels of accuracy for both events, with little degradation over time. High PTS children showed little evidence of deficits in coherence or organization in their narratives relative to low PTS children. Although in some instances high PTS children judged their memory quality to be poor compared to low PTS children, this depended on how this was assessed (e.g., self-report questionnaire vs. coded narratives). In terms of limitations, it is unclear whether the findings will generalize for memories of repeated events. Witness verification of the accident details itself could be prone to error. In conclusion, the findings are broadly supportive of the proposal made by theorists who argue that trauma memories are recalled no less accurately than other distinctive memories. The role of meta-cognitive elements of children’s memory and reporting in PTS is less clear.