信息=商机

信息灵，百业兴。在变化莫测的市场竞争中及时捕捉信息固然重要，而对得到的信息进行山此及彼、由表及里的提炼从而挖出有用的商机却更为重要。当中央出台了征收增值税的政策后，一位商人便千方百计地向国税局打听增值税的计算方法。这使国税局的司长感到不可思议：你一个...     

世纪末=世界末日?

编者按：从本期开始，我们开设了“本期专题”这样一个栏目，尝试就大家比较关心并且有兴趣的一些问题开展讨论。我们期待着广大读者的参与和支持。您可以就本栏目的选题提出建议，也可以对已讨论的问题进一步发表看法。随着1999年的到来，人类进入了本世纪的最后时期。每...     

不计算=轻松

我不计算,也就是说,对事情我不再精打细算。过去,我习惯计算许多事儿——在任何受邀的晚宴上,我计算吃掉的炸薯条的数量和第二天需要花多少时间在跑步机上才能将其消耗掉;我以朋友公寓的面积和可能的购买价格推算她的薪水,比较我们之间的差距;尤其是当孩子出生后,我计算丈夫说他即将回家帮我,到他漫步走进     

American = White?

Six studies investigated the extent to which American ethnic groups (African, Asian, and White) are associated with the category "American." Although strong explicit commitments to egalitarian principles were expressed in Study 1, Studies 2-6 consistently revealed that both African and Asian Americans as groups are less associated with the national category "American" than are White Americans. Under some circumstances, a dissociation between mean levels of explicit beliefs and implicit responses emerged such that an ethnic minority was explicitly regarded to be more American than were White Americans, but implicit measures showed the reverse pattern (Studies 3 and 4). In addition, Asian American participants themselves showed the American = White effect, although African Americans did not (Study 5). The American = White association was positively correlated with the strength of national identity in White Americans. Together, these studies provide evidence that to be American is implicitly synonymous with being White.     

Ambiguous probabilities: when does p=0.3 reflect a possibility,and when does it express a doubt?

Verbal phrases denoting uncertainty are usually held to be more vague than numerical probability statements. They are, however, directionally more precise, in the sense that they are either positive, suggesting the occurrence of a target outcome, or negative, drawing attention to its non‐occurrence. A numerical probability will, in contrast, sometimes be perceived as positive and sometimes as negative. When asked to complete sentences such as ‘The operation has a 30% chance of success, because’ some people will give reasons for success (‘the doctors are expert surgeons’), whereas others will give reasons for failure (‘it is a difficult operation’). It is shown in two experiments that positive reasons are given more often than negative ones, even for p values below 0.5, especially when the probability is higher than expected, and the target outcome is non‐normal, undesirable, and phrased as a negation. We conclude that the directionality of numerical probabilities (as opposed to verbal phrases) is context‐dependent, but biased towards a positive interpretation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

改革=改良?

偶读专家大作,发现作者在论证“改革也是革命”时不知何故将“改革”变成了“改良”。其中,理论上有什么奥秘,未及细想、深究,但总觉得仅从逻辑上来说颇不对劲儿。对此略作逻辑分析,似会有盖于学逻辑和用逻辑的。先摘引一段原文: (六)改革是中国的第二次革命邓小平同志在论述改革的意义时指出:“改革是中国的第二次革命”(1985年3月28     

爆炸性增长=戏剧性崩溃

不管你侍奉的教会是什么类型，或是在哪个地区，所有教会领袖都面临一个试探：当教会蒙神赐福，经历大幅增长，他们都会沉浸在大量初信者涌进教会的喜乐中，忘却要计划如何真正把这些初信者纳入事工范畴。