通货膨胀、通货紧缩和产品类型对货币幻觉的影响

货币幻觉是指经济交易活动中,人们因倾向于以货币的名义价值而非实际价值思考从而对其消费和投资行为造成影响的一种认知偏差。本研究探讨了在通货膨胀和通货紧缩下以及产品类型对货币幻觉程度的影响。研究发现,在通货膨胀或通货紧缩下,大部分被试判断经济状况时不受货币名义价值的影响,而判断快乐程度和离职意向时受到货币名义价值的影响;在相同的涨价幅度下被试对日常消费品和昂贵消费品涨价幅度的判断差异显著,昂贵消费品引起人们更高程度的货币幻觉。     

通货膨胀知觉的认知机制和影响因素

通货膨胀知觉是个体对通货膨胀的主观体验.通货膨胀知觉的认知机制主要体现在体验阶段和整合阶段.体验阶段主要涉及到个体对物价的感受性和记忆,整合阶段主要涉及到个体利用可得性启发式以及锚定和调整启发式完成对通货膨胀的最终估计.通货膨胀知觉的影响因素主要包括通货膨胀预期、框架效应、对价格公平性的认知、社会放大效应以及货币改革等.未来可以从通货膨胀知觉的信息加工方式、认知神经机制、跨文化研究以及具有较高生态效度的测量指标等方面进一步探讨.     

控制幻觉的研究方法、形成机制和影响因素

控制幻觉是指在完全不可控或部分不可控的情境下, 个体由于不合理地高估自己对环境或事件结果的控制力而产生的一种判断偏差。控制幻觉普遍存在于博彩游戏、医疗保健、心理健康、投资决策等实践领域。控制幻觉的研究方法主要包括间接测量方法、自我报告方法和实验室任务方法。控制启发式理论和调节定向理论则对控制幻觉的产生原因进行了解释。控制幻觉的影响因素包括人格因素、动机、权力、反馈、事件与个体的关联性、指导语等。未来的研究可从控制幻觉的多变量及交互作用研究、跨文化研究、调控策略研究等方面做进一步探讨。     

动态系统累积变量判断中的关联启发式

关联启发式是指在累积变量判断中, 将存量与流量建立正相关关系, 认为存量变化特征与流量变化特征具有相似性而导致判断偏差的思维模式。在多特征交互及简单动态系统任务判断中, 关联启发式偏差以不同形式的S-F错误表现出来。作为一种内生性的、顽固的思维模式, 对于关联启发式的心理机制提出了客体偏差、特征替代、不充分调整等多种观点解释。影响关联启发式的个体因素和情境因素的研究结果不尽一致。由于关联启发式偏差直接影响人对复杂系统的可持续性决策和行动, 减少偏差策略的研究也已实现起步。本文系统总结和分析了关联启发式研究的发展脉络, 针对澄清关联启发式的发生机制、系统考察关联启发式的影响因素及其相互作用、丰富和深化关联启发式的研究范式、开发减少关联启发式的有效途径等方面, 提出了深化研究的方向和思路。     

决策与推理的双系统——启发式系统和分析系统

近来,在决策与推理的研究中,研究者提出了双系统作用模型：基于直觉的启发式系统和基于理性的分析系统。启发式系统加工速度较快,不占用或占用很少的心理资源,容易受背景相似性、刻板印象的影响;分析系统加工速度慢,占用较多的心理资源,遵从逻辑和规则,而且两个系统有不同进化历史和神经基础。该文根据已有的相关研究,综述了双系统在决策与推理中可能的作用机制、相互关系、个体差异,同时指出了目前研究存在的不足     

行为决策中的默认效应

默认效应指的是当存在默认选项时, 人们决策时倾向于保留默认选项而不做出改变的一种现象。这种现象广泛存在于器官捐献政策、退休金储蓄计划和消费决策等领域并在这些领域中有巨大的应用价值。目前, 研究者主要从损失规避、质询理论、暗含的推荐和神经心理机制四个方面解释默认效应的形成机制。默认效应还受到努力成本、默认选项的框架和个人经验等因素影响。未来的研究可以从深入探讨默认效应的产生根源、加强其跨文化研究以及拓展其应用领域这三个方面来展开。     

判断与决策中的情感启发式

情感启发式是指在判断与决策的过程中,个体会有意识或无意识的利用自己对任务选项的主观情感反应来做出决策。具体来说,个体头脑中物体和事件的表征会激起不同水平的情感体验,这种不同的体验会对所有的表征做出积极或消极的标记,人们根据这些被标记的体验来做出判断和决策。情感启发式是个体在决策中常用的策略。目前,关于情感启发式心理机制的解释主要有情感启发式模型和双加工理论。此外,情感启发式的影响因素主要包括经验、时间压力、可评估性和计数能力等。未来的研究应主要集中在探究情感启发式的产生根源和进一步扩展情感启发式应用领域的研究。     

消费决策中羊群行为的心理机制

羊群行为是消费市场上的一种典型现象,它是指在不确定情境中,消费者模仿他人进行消费决策的行为。本研究通过模拟消费情境对消费者羊群行为的心理机制进行研究。研究1通过操纵观点的强弱研究消费者的信息加工方式。结果发现,消费者的羊群行为是消费者采用一致性启发式或能力启发式的结果。研究2进一步通过操纵群体内部的一致性程度考察两种启发式的作用条件。结果表明,在群体内部一致性程度高的情况下,消费者倾向于采用一致性启发式,与大众决策保持一致;在群体内部一致性低的情况下,消费者倾向于采用能力启发式,与专家的决策保持一致。     

多项式加工树模型在再认启发式中的应用

摘 要 再认启发式利用再认线索进行决策。以往研究采用一致率、击中率、虚报率和区分指数来表示再认启发式使用,然而这些方法都存在局限。多项式加工树模型能够分离不同的认知加工过程,为了解决再认使用与知识使用的混淆,研究者提出一种多项式加工树模型 r-model 测量再认启发式的使用。本文将重 点介绍 r-model,具体包括 r-model 的内容、数据分析以及考虑个体差异的分层 r-model。最后,从 r-model 的模型修正和边界条件两个方面提出未来研究方向。 关键词 再认启发式;流畅启发式;多项式加工树;贝叶斯分层模型     

基于直觉判断的初始信任：启发式线索及影响因素

初始信任是许多重要关系的开端,也是多数研究主要关注的信任形式。缺乏可靠线索的不确定性特征使得初始信任往往依赖于直觉。基于直觉判断的初始信任可从信任者自身和信任对象两方面获取启发式线索,同时还会受到来自个体和情境因素的影响。未来可以进一步深化启发式线索的相关研究、拓展直觉初始信任的影响因素研究,并结合启发式线索和影响因素提高初始信任准确性。     

市场信息整合的创造性思维机制初探

采用个别测试和集体测试相结合的方法, 辅以个别访谈等技术, 运用自编的实验测试材料, 通过两个实验探索市场信息的量、关键启发信息的突出性等对商业投资问题的思维决策结果的影响, 初步探讨了市场信息整合的创造性思维过程和机制。实验结果发现, 提供给被试的市场信息越多, 信息整合的问题空间越大, 其整合过程难度越大; 在问题空间进行搜索时, 被试需要抓住关键启发信息形成一个初始意向, 明确进一步搜索的思维方向; 初始意向形成后, 被试须筛选必要信息、排除冗余信息, 并进一步整合有用信息, 使初始意向更加精致化, 最终形成一个“可盈利的完善的投资方案”。     

情感启发式对风险选择的影响

本研究旨在考察情感启发式对风险选择的影响。研究1采用线上和线下结合的方式对687名大学生进行问卷施测,修订并检验中文版情感启发式问卷的信效度,以该问卷测试的风险−收益相关系数作为衡量情感启发式倾向的指标。研究2采用极端被试法,在103名大学生完成问卷后,将风险−收益相关系数绝对值前20%和后20%的被试分为高、低情感启发式组,完成风险选择任务。结果发现：（1）中文版情感启发式问卷具有较好的信度与效度,可以作为情感启发式倾向的测试问卷。（2）风险选择任务激活负性情绪时,相比于低情感启发式倾向,高情感启发式倾向的被试更容易受负性情绪的影响,其风险判断的主观值更高。研究揭示了情感启发式对风险选择的影响,为情感启发式作为个体进行风险判断的重要依据提供了实证支持。     

Who will win Wimbledon? The recognition heuristic in predicting sports events

Goldstein and Gigerenzer ( 2002 ) described the recognition heuristic as a fast, frugal, and effective decision strategy. However, most studies concerning the recognition heuristic have been conducted in static domains, that is, in domains where it could plausibly be argued that relevant variables stay relatively constant. Yet the question is whether the heuristic would also work in dynamic environments where the quality of the actors rises and falls, such as in sports. We tested performance of the recognition heuristic in a dynamic environment and used it to predict the outcomes of tennis matches in Wimbledon 2003. Recognition data of amateur tennis players and laypeople was used to build recognition rankings. These rankings correlated with official rankings and led to at least as good predictions. Simulations of individual choices showed high recognition validities of both amateurs (0.73) and laypeople (0.67). In a second study the recognition heuristic correctly predicted 90% of actual individual choices. Overall, the recognition heuristic may be effectively generalized to dynamic environments. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A realist social ontology of religion

Jonathan Z. Smith famously pointed out that the concept of ‘religion’ is not universal but emerged only in the modern West. Several scholars have drawn from Smith the non-realist implication that the existence of religion apart from that concept is an illusion. The word ‘religion,’ they say, does not refer to something out there in the world. In this article, the author argues that Smith’s point is open to a realist interpretation according to which religion exists in the world, as a transhistorical and transcultural reality, even apart from the concept. To make this case, the author outlines and responds to non-realist positions that draw on genealogical, deconstructive, and linguistic arguments, as well as to the alternative proposal that ‘religion’ is simply a heuristic device. In short, the goal of this article is to argue that a realist social ontology provides the better understanding of the central theoretical term in our field.     

Distinctive encoding reduces the Jacoby—Whitehouse illusion

We investigated the influence of distinctive encoding on the Jacoby and Whitehouse (1989) illusion. Subjects studied visually presented words that were associated with either an auditory presentation of the same word (nondistinctive encoding) or a picture of the object (distinctive encoding). In both conditions, words were visually presented on the recognition test, and half were preceded by brief repetition primes. Priming test items increased hits and false alarms in the auditory condition, demonstrating the Jacoby-Whitehouse illusion. This illusion was reduced in the picture condition. In order to test whether this distinctiveness effect was caused by a recollection-based response strategy (i.e., the distinctiveness heuristic), we minimized recollection-based responding by having subjects make speeded recognition decisions. Contrary to the distinctiveness heuristic hypothesis, speeded responding did not eliminate the distinctiveness effect on the Jacoby-Whitehouse illusion. Picture encoding may reduce this illusion via a shift in preretrieval orientation, as opposed to a postretrieval editing process.     

Model for a three-dimensional optical illusion

A homogeneous coordinate system is used to describe the transformation from a real three-dimensional stimulus to an illusory three-dimensional perceptual object. The model comprises a series of transformations of which one acts as an illusion operator. The illusion operator is specified by a single parameter whose value determines whether the real or the illusory object is perceived. An experiment to test one prediction derived from the model was performed. The results confirm the prediction.     

Application of the rubber hand illusion paradigm: comparison between upper and lower limbs

The “rubber hand illusion (RHI)” is a perceptual illusion, which allows the integration of artificial limbs into the body representation of a person by means of combined visual and tactile stimulation. The illusion has been frequently replicated but always concerning the upper limbs. The present study verified an analog illusion that can be called the “rubber foot illusion” (RFI). In a conjoint experiment using both a rubber hand and a rubber foot, brushstrokes were applied to the respective real and rubber limb placed alongside the real one. However, only the artificial limb’s handling was visible. The brushstrokes were given either synchronously, with a delay of ±0.5 s, or without tactile stimulation of the real limb. Questionnaire data and the proprioceptive drift towards the rubber limb (determined by calling on the subjects to show where they locate their unseen limb) defined the illusion strength. Results revealed that the illusion was induced in both limbs with comparable strength, but only in the synchronous condition.     

Pseudocontingencies

In 3 experiments, the authors explored a contingency illusion termed pseudocontingency (PC) that produces logically unwarranted but potentially useful inferences. PCs arise when bivariate contingencies are inferred from univariate distributions via heuristic alignment processes. For example, in the absence of information about the co-occurrence of TV habits and aggressive behavior within a school class, when the prevalence of both attributes is high, a teacher may infer a positive PC as if students who often watch TV were highly aggressive. Throughout 3 experiments, predictions of the level of 1 variable from the level of another served as a measure of PCs. The illusion could be evoked reliably whether information about target attributes was presented successively or simultaneously, whether common-cause or common-effect models were activated, and whether attributes involved 2 or more levels. The discussion centers on the cognitive processes underlying PCs and their origin and adaptive value.