行为决策研究的新取向——基于经验的决策

基于经验的决策是指,在统计概率情境中,个体通过重复选择与反馈获得选项的收益分布信息后进行的决策.基于经验的决策的研究范式主要包括探索-利用范式和探索→利用范式.其暗含的决策人假设是朴素直觉统计学家.其研究关注的主要内容是描述-经验的差异及其原因,以及基于经验的决策内部过程.未来的研究主要从描述-经验差异的原因、描述性决策范式下的结论的重新检验、基于经验的决策的解释模型及其应用研究等方面进行探讨.     

描述信息与经验不一致对个体风险选择的影响：决策模型的拟合

采用描述−经验冲突范式,考察损益情境下,描述信息与经验不一致对个体风险选择的影响,通过模型拟合探究其内在机制。研究1a和研究1b采用单因素被试间设计,自变量为描述信息与经验不一致程度,因变量为风险选项选择率。结果发现,获益情境中,描述信息与经验不一致程度的主效应不显著;而损失情境中,风险选项选择率受到显著影响。研究2比较决策模型参数发现,获益情境中,描述信息权重参数ξ和选择一致性参数c显著小于损失情境,而近因参数φ显著大于损失情境。这表明,当描述信息与经验不一致时,相对于获益情境,损失情境下个体更大程度地采用描述信息进行决策。研究揭示了损益情境中描述信息与经验不一致影响个体风险选择的机制。     

经验决策：概念、研究和展望

传统风险决策研究范式中, 决策信息是事先限定的, 即在决策之前呈现各个决策选项的概率和收益, 被试基于这些信息进行决策。已有研究表明, 在传统风险决策任务中人们会高估小概率事件(rare event)。然而最近出现的一种基于不完整信息的决策形式, 即经验决策却对这一发现提出了挑战。研究发现, 人们在进行经验决策时会表现出对小概率事件的低估, 经验决策和传统决策形式之间存在差异。本文主要介绍经验决策的概念及其研究, 并从学习和不确定程度等角度对两种决策形式进行再认识, 以进一步理解经验决策并提出展望。     

驾驶决策的研究现状与展望

驾驶决策是驾驶员对不同交通场景进行判断、选择,并产生驾驶行为的过程。驾驶决策的研究起源于人因工程学,并随着认知心理学的发展而逐渐受到关注。驾驶决策的研究范式主要采用心理测量与实验法;并与年龄、性别、风险感知、情绪以及决策风格相关;为了有效防止交通事故的发生,驾驶决策的改善逐步成为研究的新热点。今后的研究可以从认知与情绪角度综合探讨适合中国国情的驾驶决策的结构与特征,以提高驾驶员的决策能力。     

数学能力与决策的关系：个体差异的视角

即便在相同的情形中, 每个人所做的决策也有千差万别, 导致决策个体差异的因素之一就是数学能力。文章综述了算术能力、数量表征、概率推理能力以及数学认知启发式对各种决策的影响。目前这方面的研究或者采用相关范式将数学能力作为决策的外部关联因素, 或者采用成分范式确定决策过程所需要的特定数学认知成分; 观点上的主要争论在于是一般认知能力还是数学能力在预测决策表现, 以及数学能力是否总是对决策有积极作用; 此外, 双系统模型和模糊痕迹理论有望为决策的个体差异提供理论解释。今后研究应该澄清上述争论, 确定合适的研究范式和结果解释框架, 并探讨更多提高决策能力的措施。     

航空决策模型及其影响因素分析

航空决策指在航空飞行驾驶过程中,飞行员面对特定情境做出最佳决策时的心理过程。情景评估和风险评估是航空决策模型中最重要的两个阶段。个体认知因素、疲劳和动机因素以及知识经验的限制会导致不良航空决策,组织压力和社会因素则通过混淆飞行员对飞行安全的看法间接影响航空决策。在未来的研究中,研究者应当重视构建更合理的航空决策模型,从辩证的角度全面看待知识经验与飞行安全的关系,加强对动机因素和环境因素的调查分析和实验性研究。     

模糊决策的认知神经机制

模糊决策是特殊、复杂的风险决策, 还是一种独立的决策类型, 是当前认知神经科学争论的热点问题。一系列的fMRI研究分别得出了不同结论, 但大多数证据支持模糊决策和风险决策之间存在分离, 模糊决策有其独特的决策机制; 模糊决策的认知神经机制也是一个亟待解决的问题。因此本研究拟应用事件相关电位技术、生物反馈技术和基因技术, 采用IGT和GDT任务范式, 通过网络成瘾人群和正常人群的对比研究, 去探索模糊决策和风险决策之间的分离; 应用事件相关电位技术和磁共振技术, 采用IGT范式和选瓶任务范式, 研究模糊决策的认知神经机制; 并从临床角度进一步验证上述结果。该项目的开展, 有助于拓广模糊决策的研究领域和视野, 对理解人类在模糊情境下的决策机制以及模糊决策和风险决策之间的关系, 具有重要的理论意义; 对临床上成瘾人群、脑损伤患者的认知诊断和治疗以及现实中企业和个人的决策, 具有重要的参考价值。     

博弈决策影响因素及内在机制研究现状与展望

博弈决策是指“在包含利益相互依存的两个或多个参与者的博弈情境中所进行的行为决策”。博弈决策自进入心理学研究后已成为决策心理研究领域的热点。本文述评了博弈决策的影响因素及神经生理机制的研究现状;对未来研究方向进行了展望,包括加强内在机制研究与综合理论模型建构、改进和完善研究范式与加强对多种范式的考察、加强相关认知及情绪能力的作用机制研究、加强对语言等影响因素的跨文化与文化间比较、加强应用与训练研究。     

决策任务类型与结果框架对风险决策的影响

本研究考察生命和金钱问题下,获得和损失框架中决策任务类型对风险决策的影响。采用2（任务领域：生命、金钱）×2（决策任务类型：经验、描述）×2（结果框架：获得、损失）被试间设计,使用卡方检验及logistic回归分析后发现：生命和金钱问题下,个体在直接给出方案可能结果的描述性决策中仅表现出损失框架下的风险偏好;在通过自主查看方案可能结果的经验性决策中未发现结果框架作用。描述−经验差距一致性存在于生命和金钱问题中。     

决策中个体差异研究现状述评

决策中个体差异的研究有助于进一步检验和深化传统决策理论。文章回顾了近十年决策个体差异研究的主要变量（人格、认知能力、认知风格和年龄）和研究结果,并简要总结了该类研究的背景、研究范式和理论意义。这些研究一致发现个体差异变量对决策过程、决策表现等具有影响作用,说明个体差异与决策加工中复杂的人-情境间联系有关。文章提出,未来研究应该综合考虑决策情境、情绪和决策主体的理论模型,以期对个体差异在决策中的作用做出更好解释     

Cognitive sources of evidence for neuroticism's link to punishment-reactivity processes

Theories of neuroticism emphasise its close potential link to punishment-reactivity processes, yet cognitive sources of evidence for this proposed processing basis are surprisingly scarce. The present two studies (N = 123) sought to rectify this important gap in the literature in terms of reactivity to error feedback. Study 1 found that individuals high in neuroticism were faster to switch behavioural responses following errors, whereas an opposite pattern was found among individuals low in neuroticism. Study 2 extended this error-reactivity perspective to the realm of behavioural decision making. Individuals high in neuroticism switched their behavioural predictions following error feedback, whereas this tendency was non-significant among individuals low in neuroticism. Together, the studies present novel, but theory-informed, cognitive paradigms for assessing punishment-reactivity processes, confirm neuroticism's link to such processes, and do so in the realms of both reaction time (Study 1) and behavioural predictions (Study 2). The discussion focuses on the utility of modelling punishment-reactivity processes in cognitive terms and highlights relevant directions for future research.     

认知主义与联结主义之比较

认知主义的研究定向和联结主义的研究定向是广义的现代认知心理学的两种主要研究范式。这两种研究范式都各有自己的研究内容和方法论,也取得了各自不同的成就,同时也存在各自不同的问题。通过对两种研究范式的比较,我们可以清楚地认识到二者的相互沟通和融合才是认知心理学未来发展的必然趋势。     

Computer use in cognitive psychology

Some influences of computers on theory and methodology in cognitive research are discussed. Theoretical constructs that cognitive science has borrowed from computer science include processing algorithms, processing rates, information organization, and information selection. The application of these constructs to human information processing is considered, with illustrations from memory and reading research. Further, the role of computers in research methodology is evaluated, on the basis of a comparison of 1962 and 1992 journal articles. Attributes considered include the nature of stimulus control, item content and physical features, cognitive task demands, information feedback to subjects, and assessment of individual differences in cognitive strategies. These methodological attributes are illustrated by memory and reading paradigms for which computer technology is critical. Computer science has enriched theory and data in cognitive science, but the comparison of journal articles from 1962 and 1992 suggests that many psychologists are not taking full advantage of these possibilities.     

认知闭合需要研究评述

认知闭合需要是个体稳定的认知特征,描述了个体在面对模糊情境时是否愿意系统处理信息的动机。已有研究表明,认知闭合需要对个体的信息处理过程和决策结果有显著的预测能力。总体上说,高认知闭合需要的个体更容易利用启发式进行思考,因此此类个体更容易受到过度归因、首因效应等的影响。虽然大多数的研究表明认知闭合需要是个体稳定的认知特质,但也有研究者发现环境因素如噪音等可以在一定程度上、在短时期内改变个体的认知闭合需要的水平。因此,在相关研究中,认知闭合需要既可以通过量表测量,也可以通过在实验中改变环境噪音和时间压力等方法来操纵。已有的关于认知闭合需要的研究也有不足之处。首先,如何引导高认知闭合者克服匆忙做出决策的动机并采用分析式的方式处理信息和进行决策,目前的相关研究还很少;其次,已有的关于认知闭合的研究大都为实验室研究,因此这些研究的外部效度较低;第三,认知闭合需要在冲突研究领域的应用被忽略了。未来有必要针对这些不足之处进行相应研究     

Affective information processing and the assessment of anxiety

A conceptualization of anxiety as comprising three loosely coupled response systems of overt behavior, verbal report, and physiological activation has proven useful in clinical and theoretical work. With this framework as a starting point, an information-processing approach to the study of emotion is described. Emotions are conceived as affective programs within the brain, with information coded as propositions organized into associative networks. Affective expression results when such a network is accessed and processed, which can occur when a sufficient number of propositions are activated by environmental stimuli and/or internal associations. It is hypothesized that information about the expressive physiology is an integral component of the associative structure, and that processing of the network accordingly results in measurable psychophysiological response. Data from studies of emotional imagery, as well as other areas of research, are reviewed in support of these theories. The utility of this approach for the assessment of anxiety disorders is discussed, and results of clinical studies are presented to suggest that individual differences in accessing and processing emotional information may bear significant implications for prognosis and treatment selection. It is speculated that differences among the anxiety disorders could be interpreted in terms of the degree of cognitive organization of the network, leading to potential refinement of current diagnostic categories. In conclusion, cognitive psychology paradigms are discussed in terms of their application to the assessment and treatment of anxiety disorders.The authors' research is supported in part by NIMH Grant MH 37757. Portions of this paper were presented at the NIMH Conference on Anxiety, Tuxedo, NY, September 1983. Several of its themes were developed there at more length, and this material may be found in the publication of the conference proceedings (Tuma & Maser, 1985).     

Maximizing Scales Do Not Reliably Predict Maximizing Behavior in Decisions from Experience

In this paper, we explore the relationships between psychometric and behavioral measures of maximization in decisions from experience (DfE). In two experiments, we measured choice behavior in two experimental paradigms of DfE and self‐reported maximizing tendencies using three prominent scales of maximization. In the repeated consequentialist choice paradigm, participants made repeated choices between two unlabeled options and received consequential feedback on each trial. In the sampling paradigm, participants freely sampled from two options and received feedback on their sampling before making a single consequential choice. Individuals exhibited different degrees of maximizing behavior in both paradigms and across different payoff distributions, but none of the maximizing scales predicted this behavior. These results indicate that maximization scales address constructs that are different from the maximization behavior observed in DfE, and that these measures will need to be improved to reflect behavioral aspects of choice and search from experience. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

冲突控制的神经机制

人类认知系统的一个重要特征是它能根据知觉选择、反应偏向以及实时更新的情境信息调节自身以适应特定的任务,使这种适应性得以实现的认知过程就是认知控制。该文简述了冲突控制的界定、实验范式、冲突的种类等方面,尤其详细介绍了冲突控制神经机制研究的最新进展,并对进一步的研究提出展望。     

Current directions in visual working memory research: An introduction and emerging insights

Visual working memory (VWM) is a core construct in the cognitive (neuro‐)sciences, assumed to serve as a hub for information exchange and thus supporting a multitude of cognitive functions related to processing visual information. Here, we give an introduction into key terms and paradigms and an overview of ongoing debates in the field, to which the articles collected in this Special Issue on ‘Current Directions in Visual Working Memory Research’ contribute. Our aim is to extract, from this overview, some ‘emerging’ theoretical insights concerning questions such as the optimal way to examine VWM, which types of mental representations contribute to performance on VWM tasks, and how VWM keeps features from the same object together and apart from features of concurrently maintained objects (the binding problem).