Predicting the directionality of probability words from their membership functions

Teigen and Brun have suggested that distinct from their numerical implications, most probability phrases are either positive or negative, in that they encourage one to think of reasons why the target event will or will not occur. We report two experiments testing our hypotheses that (a) the direction of a phrase can be predicted from properties of its membership function, and (b) this relation is invariant across contexts, and (c) —originally formulated by Teigen and Brun (1999)—that strong modifiers intensify phrase directionality. For each phrase, participants encoded membership functions by judging the degree to which it described the numerical probabilities 0.0, 0.1, …, 1.0, and also completed sentences including the target phrase. The types of reasons given in the sentence completion task were used to determine the phrase's directionality. The results support our hypotheses (a) and (b) regarding the relation between directionality and the membership functions, but we found only limited support for hypothesis (c) regarding the effects of modifiers on directionality. A secondary goal, to validate an efficient method of encoding membership functions, was also achieved. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Definitions need to be precise and consistent: A reply to Haslam with suggestions for the future

In his reply to our critique of research on self-humanizing, Haslam claims that we used a narrow definition of self-humanizing that ignored the evidence from the correlational research he and his colleagues have done. We disagree. First, we relied upon a definition of self-humanizing based upon comparative judgments that Haslam and colleagues have consistently used. Second, we were well aware of the correlational research he and his colleagues have done. We simply did not think, and do not think, these correlations verified the existence of self-humanizing as defined. In his reply, Haslam offered a new definition of self-humanizing that defines self-humanizing in terms of correlations between comparative judgments and ratings of how much traits reflect human nature. Although we believe this change represents some progress, numerous issues in the study of self-humanizing remain to be resolved. We offer some suggestions for future research on this important topic.     

The proportion heuristic: problem set size as a basis for performance judgments

How do people evaluate their degree of mastery over a task? A series of four studies demonstrated that a potentially irrelevant cue can have a strong influence on such evaluations. In these studies, the total amount of work given to participants (the problem set size) influenced both (a) the amount of work participants completed before feeling that they had performed well and were adequately prepared for a related future task, and (b) participants' assessments of their performance and their feelings of preparedness for a related future task. These effects occurred even when a randomization procedure was used to emphasize the arbitrary nature of the problem set size. The effects vanished, however, when participants were given extra time to evaluate their progress after completing each problem. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Competition during the processing of quantifier scope ambiguities: Evidence from eye movements during reading

We investigated the processing of sentences containing a quantifier scope ambiguity, such as Kelly showed a photo to each critic, which is ambiguous between the indefinite phrase (a photo) having one or many referents. Ambiguity resolution requires the computation of relative quantifier scope, with either a photo or each critic taking wide scope, thereby determining the number of referents. Using eye tracking, we established that multiple factors, including the grammatical function and surface linear order of quantified phrases, along with their lexical characteristics, interact during the processing of relative quantifier scope, with conflict between factors incurring a processing cost. We discuss the results in terms of theoretical accounts attributing sentence-processing difficulty to either reanalysis (e.g., Fodor, 1982) or competition between rival analyses (e.g., Kurtzman & MacDonald, 1993).     

Self-other similarity judgment asymmetries reverse for people to whom you want to be similar

People typically judge themselves to be less similar to others than others are to themselves. The selective accessibility model [Mussweiler, T. (2003). Comparison process in social judgement: mechanical consequences. Psychological Review, 110, 472-489.] suggests that the direction of this self-other similarity asymmetry could reverse for comparison others to whom people want to be more similar. Motivation to be more similar is thought to prompt a focal hypothesis of similarity as opposed to dissimilarity, which influences the amount and kind of information accessed when making the judgment. A study found a typical asymmetry for comparison others to whom participants did not wish to be more similar, and a reversed asymmetry for comparison others to whom participants did wish to be more similar. The direction of the asymmetry was not dependent on whether participants knew a lot or a little about the comparison other.     

Motivated reasoning and verbal vs. numerical probability assessment: Evidence from an accounting context

A perplexing yet persistent empirical finding is that individuals assess probabilities in words and in numbers nearly equivalently, and theorists have called for future research to search for factors that cause differences. This study uses an accounting context in which individuals are commonly motivated to reach preferred (rather than accurate) conclusions. Within this context, I predict new differences between verbal and numerical probability assessments, as follows: first, individuals will justify an optimistic verbal assessment (e.g., somewhat possible) by retaining the option of re-defining it, in case of negative outcomes, as though the phrase really means something different, and, for that matter, means more things. This re-definition will maintain some connection to the original meaning of the phrase, but de-emphasized relative to the new meaning. Second, based on this behavior, I also predict individuals’ verbal probability assessments to be (1) more biased and yet (2) perceived as more justifiable than their numerical assessments. I find supportive evidence in an experiment designed to test the hypotheses. This study contributes to motivated reasoning and probability assessment theories (1) with new evidence of how individuals can word-smith in multiple attributes of a phrase to justify reaching a preferred conclusion, and (2) with new, reliable differences between verbal and numerical probability assessments. This study has important theoretical and practical implications relevant to organizational contexts in which people assess the likelihoods of uncertainties in words or numbers, and with motivations to reach a preferred conclusion.     

Pretending to be authentic: challenges for students when reflective writing about their childhood for assessment

Critical reflection potentially allows social work and human service (SWHS) students to understand how past experiences can shape their future practice. This study of 20 Australian undergraduate SWHS students with a history of childhood adversity found reflective writing for this purpose was not a useful pedagogical practice. Rather than developing skills in critical reflection students found the task performative, linked to academic requirements, where they needed to display emotional containment. Consequently, SWHS academics need to examine reflective writing about childhood adversity for assessment as this process may not enable students to build skills in critical reflection that drive professional development.     

Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop: Help for the Job-Insecure Employee

Although the U.S. economy is flourishing, a segment of the workforce still faces job insecurity as a salient feature of employment. As companies focus on competition and profit margins, workers are confronted with threats to their identities based on real or anticipated job loss. This article focuses on features of job insecurity that affect threatened workers, those who remain, and the organizations in which they work. Recommendations are given regarding assisting job-insecure employees using career counselors, consultants, or outplacement specialists.     

Can > Will: Predictions of What Can Happen are Extreme,but Believed to be Probable

Predictions of uncertain events are often described in terms of what can or what will happen. How are such statements used by speakers, and what are they perceived to mean? Participants in four experiments were presented with distributions of variable product characteristics and were asked to generate natural, meaningful sentences containing either will or can. Will was typically associated with either low or intermediate numeric values, whereas can consistently suggested high (maximum) values. For instance, laptop batteries lasting from 1.5 to 3.5 hours will last for 1.5 hours or for 2.5 hours, but they can last for 3.5 hours. The same response patterns were found for positive and negative events. In will‐statements, the most frequent scalar modifiers were at least and about, whereas in can‐statements, the most frequent modifier included up to. A fifth experiment showed that will indicates an outcome that may be certain but more often simply probable. Can means possible, but even can‐statements are perceived to imply probable outcomes. This could create a communication paradox because most speakers use can to describe outcomes that because of their extremity are at the same time quite unlikely. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

I did not expect to be dreaming: Explaining realization in lucid dreams with a Bayesian framework

The commonsense view is that a lucid dream starts when the dreamer realizes that they are currently dreaming. The notion of realization, however, has been accepted at face value, with little consideration of whether the dreamer realizes that they are dreaming in the sense of actual reasoning, or if it is a mere epiphenomenon of lucid dream initiation. This article offers a solution to this problem by, first, arguing that the transition to lucidity can occur as a result of successful reasoning, and second, building a model of this reasoning in terms of probabilistic reasoning. The established Bayesian model explains realization in lucid dreams taking under consideration two factors: the beliefs that the dreamer holds on what is generally probable and improbable, and the dreamer’s admissibility of being in a dream. Defended against important objections, the model offers an explanation of lucid dream initiation, relevant for future research on dreaming.     

Benefiting from misfortune: when harmless actions are judged to be morally blameworthy

Dominant theories of moral blame require an individual to have caused or intended harm. However, the current four studies demonstrate cases where no harm is caused or intended, yet individuals are nonetheless deemed worthy of blame. Specifically, individuals are judged to be blameworthy when they engage in actions that enable them to benefit from another's misfortune (e.g., betting that a company's stock will decline or that a natural disaster will occur). Evidence is presented suggesting that perceptions of the actor's wicked desires are responsible for this phenomenon. It is argued that these results are consistent with a growing literature demonstrating that moral judgments are often the product of evaluations of character in addition to evaluations of acts.     

Expressivist to the core: Metaaesthetic subjectivism is stable and robust

Two common observations about aesthetics are in tension: that people generally consider aesthetic judgments subjective, and that people generally behave like objectivists (arguing over judgments, making choices based on judgments of trusted critics, rejecting strong assertions of aesthetic equivalence). This tension would be resolved if the first observation turned out to be false—if people endorsed subjectivism weakly, flexibly, or rarely. We tested whether people can be pushed to endorse objectivism under certain circumstances. Across a large sample (N = 588), aesthetic subjectivism proved consistent and robust to experimental manipulations. Even judgments that reflected participants' own evaluations of artworks were considered just as subjective as judgments directly opposed to their personal evaluations. We conclude that the apparent tension can be explained by the philosophical position of expressivism and discuss expressivism's prospects as a framework for understanding aesthetic judgment.     

The relationship between reward and probability: Evidence that exploration may be intrinsically rewarding

ABSTRACT

The probability of an event occurring and the reward associated with the event can both modulate behaviour. Response times are decreased to stimuli that are either more rewarding or more likely. These two factors can be combined to give an Expected Value (EV) associated with the event (i.e., probability of the event x reward magnitude). In four experiments we investigate the effect of reward and probability on both saccadic and manual responses. When tested separately we find evidence for both a reward and probability effect across response types. When manipulations of reward magnitude and probability of the event were combined, the probability modulations dominated and these data were not well accounted for by the EV. However, a post-hoc model that included an additional intrinsic reward associated with responding provided an excellent account for the data. We argue that reward consists of both an explicit and intrinsic component. In our task, the saccadic and manual responses are linked to the information provided by the targets and the goals of the task, and successful completion of these is in itself rewarding. As a result, targets associated with a higher probability of being presented have a higher intrinsic reward.     

Maximizing test battery prediction when the weights are required to be non-negative

A procedure is developed for computing optimum regression weights under the restriction that they be non-negative. The weights maximize, subject to the restrictions, the multiple correlation between several predictors and a criterion. A numerical example is provided.     

The future is now: the impact of present fluency in judgments about the future

Recent research has emphasised the role of episodic memory in both remembering past events and in envisaging future events. On the other hand, it has been repeatedly shown that judgments about past events are affected by the fluency with which retrieval cues are processed. In this paper we investigate whether perceptual fluency also plays a role in judgments about future events. For this purpose we conducted four experiments. The first experiment replicated recent findings showing that stimuli that are processed fluently tend to be wrongly recognised as having been encountered in the past outside the laboratory walls [Brown, A. S., & Marsh, E. J. (2009). Creating illusions of past encounter through brief exposure. Psychological Science, 20, 534–538. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02337.x]. Two follow-up experiments using Brown and Marsh’s [(2009). Creating illusions of past encounter through brief exposure. Psychological Science, 20, 534–538. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02337] task tested the influence of perceptual fluency on future judgments. The fourth and last experiment was designed to rule out a potential confounding factor in the two previous experiments. Across experiments, we found that people rely on fluency when making judgments about events that are yet to come. These results suggest that fluency is an equally valid cue for past and future judgments.     

Using a multidimensional scaling approach to investigate the underlying basis of ease of learning judgments

Jönsson, F. U. & Lindström, B. R. (2009) Using a multidimensional scaling approach to investigate the underlying basis of ease of learning judgments. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 51, 103–108. Before studying a material it is of strategic importance to first assess its difficulty, so called Ease of Learning (EOL) judgments. A multidimensional scaling (MDS) procedure was used to investigate the underlying basis of EOL judgments for 24 nouns, which to the authors’ knowledge has not been done before. In addition, Judgments of Learning (JOL) followed by a free recall test was performed. The MDS analysis indicated that EOL judgments for the nouns are based on multiple cues (dimensions), namely word length, frequency, and concreteness. Moreover, the concreteness values of the nouns, as judged by an independent group, were correlated with both the JOLs and the concreteness dimension from the MDS analysis. This indicates that EOLs and JOLs for single words are based, to some extent, on the same cues.     

The right to refuse treatment: What the research reveals

This review encompasses all published and many unpublished studies of refusal of antipsychotic medication by psychiatric inpatients. Many of the extant studies in this area have methodologic flaws in the means employed to gather or analyze data; where relevant to the points being considered, these flaws are noted. The review is broken down into five sections: frequency of refusal, characteristics of medication refusers, reasons for refusal, the natural history of medication refusal, and responses to refusal. A final section summarizes the extent of our knowledge today and points to future areas of investigation.     

Extraversion and Arousal Procrastination: Waiting for the Kicks

Procrastination is a prevalent and complex psychological phenomenon that has been defined as the purposive delay in beginning or completing a task. Given the potential implications for a broad range of situations, including both academic performance and safety sensitive occupations, it seems reasonable and judicious to systematically examine this phenomenon. While there is growing interest in procrastination, our understanding of underlying explanatory factors remains quite limited. Eysenck’s (1967) theory of personality, and in particular his biologically-based theory of extraversion, could shed light on this phenomenon. The purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between extraversion and arousal procrastination. In accordance with Eysenck’s theory that extraverts tend to seek external sources of arousal, it was hypothesized that they would be more likely than introverts to engage in arousal procrastination. Participants completed a series of counterbalanced questionnaires measuring extraversion and procrastination. Results indicated that extraversion significantly predicted the engagement in this type of procrastination. Limitations, implications, and future research are discussed.