Integrative Complexity of 41 U.S. Presidents

Although U.S. presidents are one of the most studied groups of political figures and integrative complexity is one of the most widely used constructs in political psychology, no study to date has fully examined the integrative complexity of all U.S. presidents. The present study helps fill in that gap by scoring 41 U.S. presidents' first four State of the Union speeches for integrative complexity and then comparing these scores with a large range of available situational and personality variables. Results suggest a tendency for presidents' integrative complexity to be higher at the beginning of their first term and drop at the end. This pattern was pronounced for presidents who eventually won reelection to a second term and was markedly different for presidents who tried to gain reelection but lost. Additional analyses suggested that presidents' overall integrative complexity scores were in part accounted for by chronic differences between presidents' complexity levels. Further analyses revealed that this overall integrative complexity score was positively correlated to a set of interpersonal traits (friendliness, affiliation motive, extraversion, and wittiness) and negatively correlated with inflexibility. Discussion centers upon the causes and consequences of presidential complexity.     

Predicting Presidential Performance in the United States: Equation Replication on Recent Survey Results

Abstract

For more than 2 decades, researchers have tried to identify the variables that predict the overall performance of U.S. presidents. In 1986, there emerged a 6-variable prediction equation (D. K. Simonton, 1986c, 1987b) that has been replicated repeatedly. The predictors are years in office, war years, scandal, assassination, heroism in war, and intellectual brilliance. The author again replicated the equation on recent rankings of all presidents from George Washington through William Jefferson Clinton according to a survey of 719 experts (W. R. Ridings, Jr., & S. B. Mclver, 1997). The original 6-variable equation successfully predicted both the overall rankings as well as the 5 core components of the rankings (leadership qualities, accomplishment, political skill, appointments, character and integrity). The predictive value of the equation was illustrated for the presidencies of Ronald W. Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.     

Subjective organization of U.S. presidents

College students appear to subjectively organize U.S. presidents into three groups and to use this organization to help them learn new information. Results of a paired comparison task in Experiment 1 suggested that subjects organized the presidents into Founding Fathers (Washington through John Quincy Adams), post-World War II presidents (Truman through Reagan), and noncontemporary presidents (Jackson through Franklin Roosevelt). This hypothesized organization was tested in Experiment 2 by presenting subjects with several lists with alternative organizations of the presidents. Difficulty of learning classifications of particular presidents within each list was predicted on the basis of the relation between that president's classification in the list and in the hypothesized preexisting organization. Instances where the preexisting and new classifications were consistent both for the particular president and for all other members of the group were easiest to learn. Instances where the particular president's classification was consistent but where some other presidents in the group were classified differently were of intermediate difficulty. Instances where neither the individual president's classification nor that of the entire group were consistent were most difficult. The results provided converging evidence for the hypothesized subjective organization of the presidents and also demonstrated the usefulness of a method that may be applicable to testing subjective organizations in a wide variety of other areas.     

Ethnic identity and self‐esteem among Asian and European Americans: When a minority is the majority and the majority is a minority

Three studies were conducted to examine the impact of being a numeric majority or minority in Hawai'i and U.S. mainland on the ethnic identity and self‐esteem of Asian and European Americans. Results of Study 1 (N = 214, M age = 19.85 years) and Study 2 (N = 215, M age = 18.20 years) showed that Asian Americans who grew up on the U.S. mainland, where they are a numeric minority, reported higher ethnic identity than did Asian Americans who grew up in Hawai'i, where they are a numeric majority. In addition, ethnic identity was significantly associated with self‐esteem for Asian Americans from the U.S. mainland and European Americans from Hawai'i (numeric minority), but not for Asian Americans from Hawai'i and European Americans from the U.S. mainland (numeric majority). Study 3 (N = 88, M age = 18.12) examined ethnic identity and self‐esteem among Asian and European Americans who had moved from the U.S. mainland to attend a university in Hawai'i over a 1 year time period. The results showed significant relations between ethnic identity and self‐esteem for Asian Americans when they initially moved to Hawai'i, but this relation decreased after they had lived in Hawai'i for 1 year. The findings highlight contextual variations in ethnic identity and self‐esteem for members of both minority and majority groups in the U.S. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting presidential performance in the United States: equation replication on recent survey results

For more than 2 decades, researchers have tried to identify the variables that predict the overall performance of U.S. presidents. In 1986, there emerged a 6-variable prediction equation (D. K. Simonton, 1986c, 1987b) that has been replicated repeatedly. The predictors are years in office, war years, scandal, assassination, heroism in war, and intellectual brilliance. The author again replicated the equation on recent rankings of all presidents from George Washington through William Jefferson Clinton according to a survey of 719 experts (W. R. Ridings, Jr., & S. B. McIver, 1997). The original 6-variable equation successfully predicted both the overall rankings as well as the 5 core components of the rankings (leadership qualities, accomplishment, political skill, appointments, character and integrity). The predictive value of the equation was illustrated for the presidencies of Ronald W. Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.     

Prime Minister Leadership Styles in Foreign Policy Decision-Making: A Framework for Research

Although the institutional contexts of prime ministers in parliamentary democracies and of U.S. presidents are very different, both types of executive leaders influence the decision-making processes through their leadership styles. Leadership style includes how the leaders relate to those around them, how they like to receive information, and how they make up their minds. While there are numerous empirical studies and theoretical frameworks on the leadership styles of U.S. presidents, few studies of prime ministers are concerned with personality and styles of leadership. This paper reviews the literature on U.S. presidential styles and on organizational leadership in order to construct a framework for the study of prime minister leadership styles. Components of the proposed framework are illustrated with examples of British prime ministers and German chancellors. In addition, categories of dependent variables to be explained by leadership style are discussed. I argue that leadership style has the greatest impact on the decision-making process and that although the direct effect of leadership style on foreign policy behavior is less, leadership style indirectly influences foreign policy through the decision-making process.     

Serial position effects in semantic memory: reconstructing the order of verses of hymns

Serial position effects (primacy and recency) have been consistently demonstrated in both short- and long-term episodic memory tasks. The search for corresponding effects in semantic memory tasks (e.g., reconstructing the order of U.S. presidents) has been confounded by factors such as differential exposure to stimuli. In the present study, the stimuli were six-verse hymns that would have been sung from the first to the last verse by churchgoers on numerous occasions. Participants were presented with the verses of each hymn in random order and were required to reconstruct the correct order. Primacy and recency effects were significantly more evident for churchgoers than for nonchurchgoers. Moreover, error gradients were steeper than chance for churchgoers but not for nonchurchgoers; in other words, churchgoers' errors were more likely to be close to the correct position than further away. These findings provide the first unequivocal demonstration of serial position effects in semantic memory.     

Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson as Cultural Icons of U.S. Foreign Policy

The conventional account of American diplomacy in the modern era is marked by a cultural tension between realist and idealist themes symbolized by the statecraft of Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. However, a revisionist account has emerged to challenge and even reverse the conventional account of Roosevelt and Wilson. This poses an intriguing empirical puzzle that is essentially psychological, as it pertains to the belief systems of these two presidents. In order to investigate this puzzle and its implications for U.S. strategic culture, we employ an automated content analysis of the public statements by the two leaders regarding their operational code beliefs about the nature of the political universe and the best approach to effective political action. The results reveal similarities and differences in their belief systems and illustrate how psychological models can provide insights into the psychocultural origins of U.S. diplomacy that remain relevant to the present day.     

Assessing the U.S. presidents using the Revised NEO Personality Inventory

This article describes the use of objective psychological instruments, including the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO PI-R), to assess the personalities of all 41 U.S. presidents to date. We briefly report our findings pertaining to the average profile of chief executives on the NEO PI-R and summarize data on two of our most illustrious presidents, Washington and Lincoln. We review a typology of presidents based on our data. Finally, we summarize the results of our investigation of the Big Five personality dimensions and facets that are related to presidential success (i.e., historical greatness). The project and findings are discussed in terms of the use of the NEO PI-R in psychohistorical research and assessment.     

Autobiographical fluency: A method for the study of personal memory

Fifty-five subjects recalled autobiographical episodes or personal facts such as names of friends and teachers, from different lifetime periods. In each case, subjects were given 90 sec in which to retrieve as many items as possible. Also tested was subjects' fluency in generating items from semantic categories (animals, vegetables, British prime ministers, and U.S. presidents). Results of cluster analysis on the fluency tasks showed a dissociation between subjects' ability to retrieve personal episodes, personal semantic information, and nonpersonal semantic information. The dissociations observed in the fluency tasks are interpreted in terms of the different retrieval strategies required for the different types of information sought.     

Presidential Appointments and Religious Stratification in the United States, 1789–2003

In America's colonial period, the “Protestant Establishment” (Anglicans, Congregationalists, and Presbyterians) had more access to political power than “Other Colonial Elites” (Quakers and Unitarians), “Other Protestants” (e.g., Baptists and Methodists), and “Others” (e.g., Catholics, Jews, and people with no religious affiliation). To what extent has this pattern of religious stratification persisted and/or changed over the course of U.S. history? New data on the religious affiliations of U.S. presidents, cabinet members, and justices on the Supreme Court indicate that the Protestant Establishment and Other Colonial Elites are not as dominant as they once were but continue to be overrepresented in the White House, in the cabinet, and on the Supreme Court. Other Protestants and Others have made noteworthy gains but continue to be underrepresented in most spheres of national political life. Presidents from all religious strata are more likely to appoint people who belong to the Protestant Establishment than any other religious stratum. Other Protestants and Others are most likely to appoint religious outsiders. Thus, political appointments are a means by which religious stratification both persists and changes.     

Cognitive Organization of Favorable and Unfavorable Beliefs About Performing a Behavior

Abstract

Intentions to perform behaviors are influenced by beliefs about their consequences, but researchers have not addressed how such beliefs are cognitively organized. In 3 experiments, the authors tested the hypothesis that beliefs are organized according to whether they are favorable or unfavorable in regard to performing a behavior. In Experiment 1, a group of U.S. students first read a list of beliefs favorable and unfavorable to going to a vacation resort and then listed their beliefs about condom use. In Experiment 2, another group of U.S. students listed their beliefs about condom use. In Experiment 3, a 3rd group of U.S. students listed their beliefs about a novel behavior (asking the experimenter for candy). The results of all 3 experiments were consistent with the hypothesis that people cognitively organize their beliefs according to whether they are favorable or unfavorable to the behavior in question.     

“One Nation Under God”: The System‐Justifying Function of Symbolically Aligning God and Government

Do references to God in political discourse increase confidence in the U.S. sociopolitical system? Using a system justification framework (Jost & Banaji, 1994 ), five studies provide evidence that, (1) increasingly governments symbolically associate the nation with God when public confidence in the social system may be threatened and (2) associating the nation with God serves a system‐justifying function by increasing public confidence in the system. In an analysis of U.S. presidential speeches, presidents were more likely to symbolically associate the nation with God during threatening times (Study 1). Among religious individuals, referencing God in political rhetoric increased the perceived trustworthiness of politicians, compared to patriotic secular rhetoric (Study 2) or simply priming the concept of God (Study 3). These effects were also unique to politicians from one's own sociopolitical system (Study 4). Finally, believing God has a plan for the United States attenuates the deleterious effect that perceptions of national decline have on system confidence (Study 5). Implications for the system‐justifying function of religion are discussed.     

Determination of fact and opinion: A critical reading problem

This study set out to discover whether readers can make accurate judgments about fact and opinion paragraphs standing alone and the parts of the text the readers consider in making their judgments about the factual quality of a paragraph. An experiment was designed to try to address the above problems. For this experiment two forms of a questionnaire were devised. The first form contained introductory paragraphs taken from newspapers. The second form contained the same paragraphs along with the headlines for these paragraphs. The subjects were asked to do two things: first, rate the paragraphs for fact/opinion on a 7-point semantic differential scale; second, underline the words used to make fact/opinion determinations. It was found that readers can judge paragraphs standing alone for fact/opinion. Also, headlines are significant factors in determining fact/opinion. In the second part of the experiment, it was found that readers use specific types of words to help in deciding whether a text is fact or opinion. Furthermore, the evidence seems to indicate that readers use both text and context in making these determinations.     

Marriage enrichment for clergy couples

Following a four-year study of clergy marriages, the Maces arrived at certain conclusions. In this article they comment on what they learned from this investigation, and offer some recommendations designed to help clergy couples to appropriate their relational potential.Dr. Mace is affiliated with the School of Pastoral Care, Baptist Hospital, 300 South Hawthorne Road, Winston-Salem, NC 27103. He and Mrs. Mace, after helping to develop marriage counseling services in Britain, the U.S.A., and other countries, have been involved since 1973 in supplementing these remedial services with preventive equivalents. They are founders and past presidents of the Association of Couples for Marriage Enrichment (A.C.M.E.).     

The Bridging Role of Television in Immigrant Political Socialization

A survey of Korean-American immigrants in California compares television news with other socialization factors in the acquisition of knowledge about American politics. U. S. television news exposure ranks alongside the newspaper as a positive predictor of U.S. political learning for this sample of Korean immigrants and is more important than other predictors, including years of schooling. Among long-time U.S. residents and those with strong English language skills, the newspaper is the main predictor of political learning, as is the case in other studies of adult Americans. But for those who have been in the U.S. a short time and who lack skill in English, TV news is the stronger predictor for these immigrants, as it is in studies of indigenous American adolescents.     

Thinking About Your Thoughts: Investigating Different Cognitive Change Strategies

A mainstay technique of cognitive therapy is the cognitive error (CE) method, which aims to mitigate psychological distress by identifying logical errors in thinking and replacing them with alternative, adaptive cognitions. Monson and Fredman (2012) have developed a different cognitive change strategy, named the U.N.S.T.U.C.K., which is predicated on the notion of increasing cognitive flexibility to improve distress. This therapy analogue study (N?=?32) examined the emotional change produced by each strategy and initially tested each strategy??s underlying theory. Both strategies resulted in emotional change, and there was a marginally significant advantage of the U.N.S.T.U.C.K. in producing this change. The U.N.S.T.U.C.K. also resulted in a greater decline in belief in original thought over time. Finally, the interaction between level of belief in new thought and cognitive strategy was a marginally significant predictor of emotional change; there was a stronger relationship between belief in new thought and emotional change for those in the U.N.S.T.U.C.K. group. Limitations and future research directions are offered.     

Increasing seat belt use in service vehicle drivers with a gearshift delay

This study evaluated a device that prevents drivers from shifting vehicles into gear for up to 8 s unless seat belts are buckled. Participants were 101 commercial drivers who operated vans, pickups, or other light trucks from the U.S. and Canada. The driver could escape or avoid the delay by fastening his or her seat belt before shifting out of park. Unbelted participants experienced either a constant delay (8 s) or a variable delay (M = 8 s). A 16‐s delay was introduced for those U.S. drivers who did not show significant improvement. Seat belt use increased from 48% to 67% (a 40% increase) for U.S. drivers and from 54% to 74% (a 37% increase) for Canadian drivers. The fixed delay was more effective for U.S. drivers than the variable delay, but there was no difference between these two delay schedules for Canadian drivers. After the driver fastened his or her seat belt, it tended to remain fastened for the duration of the trip.     

Why achievement motivation predicts success in business but failure in politics: the importance of personal control

Several decades of research have established that implicit achievement motivation (n Achievement) is associated with success in business, particularly in entrepreneurial or sales roles. However, several political psychology studies have shown that achievement motivation is not associated with success in politics; rather, implicit power motivation often predicts political success. Having versus lacking control may be a key difference between business and politics. Case studies suggest that achievement-motivated U.S. presidents and other world leaders often become frustrated and thereby fail because of lack of control, whereas power-motivated presidents develop ways to work with this inherent feature of politics. A reevaluation of previous research suggests that, in fact, relationships between achievement motivation and business success only occur when control is high. The theme of control is also prominent in the development of achievement motivation. Cross-national data are also consistent with this analysis: In democratic industrialized countries, national levels of achievement motivation are associated with strong executive control. In countries with low opportunity for education (thus fewer opportunities to develop a sense of personal control), achievement motivation is associated with internal violence. Many of these manifestations of frustrated achievement motivation in politics resemble authoritarianism. This conclusion is tested by data from a longitudinal study of 113 male college students, showing that high initial achievement motivation combined with frustrated desires for control is related to increases in authoritarianism (F-scale scores) during the college years. Implications for the psychology of leadership and practical politics are discussed.