Why is p = .90 better than p = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgements

What do people regard as an informative and valuable probability statement? This article reports four experiments that show participants to have a clear preference for more extreme and higher probabilities over less extreme and lower ones. This pattern emerged in Experiment 1, in which no context was provided, and was further explored in Experiment 2 within a positive and a negative context. The findings were further confirmed in Experiment 3, which employed a Bayesian framework with revisions of opinions. Finally, Experiment 4 showed how preference for high probabilities can lead people to prefer an overconfident to a more well-calibrated (accurate) forecaster. The results are interpreted as manifestations of a search for definitive predictions principle, which asserts that high probabilities are preferred to medium ones and often favored over the corresponding complementary low probabilities on the basis of their capacity to predict the occurrence of single outcomes.     

Bigger is better: the influence of physical size on aesthetic preference judgments

The hypothesis that the physical size of an object can influence aesthetic preferences was investigated. In a series of four experiments, participants were presented with pairs of abstract stimuli and asked to indicate which member of each pair they preferred. A preference for larger stimuli was found on the majority of trials using various types of stimuli, stimuli of various sizes, and with both adult and 3‐year‐old participants. This preference pattern was disrupted only when participants had both stimuli that provided a readily accessible alternative source of preference‐evoking information and sufficient attentional resources to make their preference judgments. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extreme malleability of preferences: Absolute preference sign changes under uncertainty

Malleability of preferences is a central tenet of behavioral decision theory. How malleable preferences really are, however, is a topic of debate. Do preference reversals imply preference construction? We argue that to claim preferences are construed, a demonstration of more extreme preference malleability than simple preference reversals is required: absolute preference sign changes within participants. If respondents value a prospect positively in 1 condition but negatively in a different condition, preferences cannot be considered stable. Such absolute preference sign changes are possible under uncertainty. In 2 incentive‐compatible experiments, we found participants were willing to pay to take part in a gamble and also demanded to be compensated to take part in a subsequent gamble with identical outcomes and probabilities. Such absolute preference sign changes within participants led to simultaneous risk aversion and risk seeking for the same risky prospect, suggesting that, at least in the domain of risky decisions, consumers' preferences are indeed malleable and construed.     

Study preferences for exemplar variability in self-regulated category learning

Increasing exemplar variability during category learning can enhance classification of novel exemplars from studied categories. Four experiments examined whether participants preferred variability when making study choices with the goal of later classifying novel exemplars. In Experiments 1–3, participants were familiarised with exemplars of birds from multiple categories prior to making category-level assessments of learning and subsequent choices about whether to receive more variability or repetitions of exemplars during study. After study, participants classified novel exemplars from studied categories. The majority of participants showed a consistent preference for variability in their study, but choices were not related to category-level assessments of learning. Experiment 4 provided evidence that study preferences were based primarily on theoretical beliefs in that most participants indicated a preference for variability on questionnaires that did not include prior experience with exemplars. Potential directions for theoretical development and applications to education are discussed.     

Introduction to the special issue on comparative cognition

Prior research has shown that nonhumans show an extreme preference for variable‐ over fixed‐delays to reinforcement. This well‐established preference for variability occurs because a reinforcer's strength or “value” decreases according to a curvilinear function as its delay increases. The purpose of the present experiments was to investigate whether this preference for variability occurs with human participants making hypothetical choices. In three experiments, participants recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk made choices between variable and fixed monetary rewards. In a variable‐delay procedure, participants repeatedly chose between a reward delivered either immediately or after a delay (with equal probability) and a reward after a fixed delay (Experiments 1 and 2). In a double‐reward procedure, participants made choices between an alternative consisting of two rewards, one delivered immediately and one after a delay, and a second alternative consisting of a single reward delivered after a delay (Experiments 1 and 3). Finally, all participants completed a standard delay‐discounting task. Although we observed both curvilinear discounting and magnitude effects in the standard discounting task, we found no consistent evidence of a preference for variability—as predicted by two prominent models of curvilinear discounting (i.e., a simple hyperbola and a hyperboloid)—in our variable‐delay and double‐reward procedures. This failure to observe a preference for variability may be attributed to the hypothetical, rule‐governed nature of choices in the present study. In such contexts, participants may adopt relatively simple strategies for making more complex choices.     

Aesthetic preferences for the unity ratio resist the influence of color illusions

The addition of color produces an extension of previous research examining aesthetic preferences for proportional relationships. To date, most favored preferences have been for the unity (1:1) and golden section (1.618:1) ratios. Two experiments examined preferences in and assessed the accuracy of areajudgments for divided figures that varied in saturation contrast and were presumed to present a complementary color illusion. Regardless of colors, saturation contrast, direction of division, or area-to-area ratio, participants were accurate in locating the boundary between the two areas of the divided figure, and preferences for the unity ratio dominated as the most preferred ratio. There was no notable interest in the golden section ratio. Looking at the world through colored glasses seems not to interfere with a preference for symmetry, as produced by the unity ratio.     

The 'golden rectangle': some new data.

From two different series of dimensions were generated six ranges of nine rectangles each. Each range was presented to a different group of 15 men and 15 women, and a novel measure was used to assess aesthetic preference for each rectangle. The ratios between the lengths of the sides of the rectangles were the same in both series, but in one series the size of the rectangles covaried with the ratio between length and width, as in Godkewitsch's 1974 study, and in the other series the rectangles were of equal area. The subjects tended to prefer large to small rectangles in the former series and rectangles in the vicinity of the 'golden section' in the latter.     

EVALUATION OF A BRIEF STIMULUS PREFERENCE ASSESSMENT

We evaluated the utility of a brief (5-min) stimulus preference assessment for individuals with developmental disabilities. Participants had noncontingent (free) access to an array of stimuli and could interact with any of the stimuli at any time. Stimuli were never withdrawn or withheld from the participants during a 5-min session. In Experiment 1, the brief preference assessment was conducted for 10 participants to identify differentially preferred stimuli, and reinforcer assessments were conducted to test the reinforcing efficacy of those stimuli identified as highly preferred. In Experiment 2, a comparison was conducted between the brief preference assessment and a commonly used paired-stimulus preference assessment. Collectively, results demonstrated that the brief preference assessment identified stimuli that functioned as reinforcers for a simple operant response, identified preferred stimuli that were differentially effective as reinforcers compared to nonpreferred stimuli, was associated with fewer problem behaviors, and required less time to complete than a commonly used paired-stimulus preference assessment.     

OBSERVATIONAL EFFECTS ON THE PREFERENCES OF CHILDREN WITH AUTISM

Children with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may play with limited objects or toys, making it difficult for teachers to identify reinforcers to use in teaching new skills. The goal of this study was to alter children's preferences from highly preferred toys to toys that were originally less preferred using an observational pairing procedure. Child participants observed a preferred adult playing with toys that were initially less preferred by the child. This intervention resulted in a shift in preference toward the item manipulated by the adult. Maintenance of the changed preference was idiosyncratic across participants. Results suggest a procedure for expanding the range of items that students with ASD will select.     

Minimal mimicry: Mere effector matching induces preference

Both mimicking and being mimicked induces preference for a target. The present experiments investigate the minimal sufficient conditions for this mimicry-preference link to occur. We argue that mere effector matching between one’s own and the other person’s movement is sufficient to induce preference, independent of which movement is actually performed. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants moved either their arms or legs, and watched avatars that moved either their arms or legs, respectively, without any instructions to mimic. The executed movements themselves and their pace were completely different between participants (fast circular movements) and targets (slow linear movements). Participants preferred avatars that moved the same body part as they did over avatars that moved a different body part. In Experiment 3, using human targets and differently paced movements, movement similarity was manipulated in addition to effector overlap (moving forward–backward or sideways with arms or legs, respectively). Only effector matching, but not movement matching, influenced preference ratings. These findings suggest that mere effector overlap is sufficient to trigger preference by mimicry.     

Minimal mimicry: Mere effector matching induces preference

Both mimicking and being mimicked induces preference for a target. The present experiments investigate the minimal sufficient conditions for this mimicry-preference link to occur. We argue that mere effector matching between one’s own and the other person’s movement is sufficient to induce preference, independent of which movement is actually performed. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants moved either their arms or legs, and watched avatars that moved either their arms or legs, respectively, without any instructions to mimic. The executed movements themselves and their pace were completely different between participants (fast circular movements) and targets (slow linear movements). Participants preferred avatars that moved the same body part as they did over avatars that moved a different body part. In Experiment 3, using human targets and differently paced movements, movement similarity was manipulated in addition to effector overlap (moving forward–backward or sideways with arms or legs, respectively). Only effector matching, but not movement matching, influenced preference ratings. These findings suggest that mere effector overlap is sufficient to trigger preference by mimicry.     

A comparison of intervention for problematic speech using reinforcement with and without preferred topics

Previous research has shown that responding to the appropriate and problematic speech of individuals diagnosed with developmental disabilities with interested and uninterested listener responses, respectively, can promote more appropriate conversational engagement. However, Fisher et al. (2013) also responded to appropriate speech with access to preferred conversational topics. This study examined the influence of listener interest on the problematic speech of 8 participants and tested the additive effects of (Study 1) and participant preference for (Study 2) delivering preferred topics as reinforcement for appropriate speech. Interventions were equally effective with or without arranging access to preferred topics, but a majority of participants demonstrated a preference for intervention with contingent access to preferred topics. Caregivers and speech‐language pathologists rated the intervention procedures as acceptable and changes in participants' speech satisfactory.     

Assessing preference for types of social interaction

To date, few researchers have evaluated methods for assessing preference for social interactions. Due to concerns that commonly used stimulus preference assessment methods may be inappropriate, or at least cumbersome, for the assessment of social reinforcers, we developed and evaluated a new method of assessing preference for social interactions. A social interaction preference assessment (SIPA) and a concurrent operant reinforcer assessment were conducted with five participants diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. A differentially preferred and reinforcing social interaction was identified for all five participants. The SIPA procedures, results, and the implications of these results are discussed.     

Commitment to a developing preference and predecisional distortion of information

People tend to distort their evaluation of decision-relevant information in favor of the currently preferred alternative. We test whether this predecisional distortion of information is amplified by increased commitment to that current preference. We manipulated commitment, without changing the preferred option’s content, by requiring participants to indicate their preference either by circling or by darkening a sizable box (cf. feature-positive effect). Experiment 1 revealed that the effort to darken substantially increased predecisional distortion. Experiment 2 ruled out elaboration as an explanation for the effect of darkening. Experiment 3 showed that, among participants who attributed the darkening effort to an external source, predecisional distortion decreased when the source was believed to summon effort. These findings suggest that the developing commitment to a tentatively preferred alternative is one driver of predecisional distortion.     

A comparison of methods for assessing preference for social interactions

Researchers have evaluated a variety of methods for assessing preference for social interactions, and generally have found that such assessments accurately identify differentially reinforcing, preferred interactions. However, few researchers have compared methods for assessing preference for social interactions, and none have done so with participants across different skill levels. The current study compared the stability and validity of hierarchies produced by social interaction preference assessments (SIPA) and picture-based multiple stimulus without replacement preference assessments (MSWO) with 8 individuals diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The MSWO most often produced valid hierarchies for participants who could match, identify, and tact pictures of social interactions and that the SIPA most often produced valid hierarchies for participants who could not identify or tact pictures of social interactions. A vocal paired-stimulus preference assessment (PSPA) was also conducted with a subset of participants who communicated vocally, and it produced valid hierarchies. Considerations and recommendations for selecting a method of assessing preference for social interactions are discussed.     

Rethinking communication apprehension: a Myers-Briggs perspective

This study is an examination of relationships between Myers-Briggs personality type preferences, based on Jungian theory, and communication apprehension. Results showed that participants who preferred introversion or sensing reported significantly higher levels of communication apprehension in general and across the group, dyadic, meeting, and public contexts than did participants who preferred extraversion or intuition. In addition, participants who preferred feeling reported higher levels of communication anxiety in the public context than those who preferred thinking. Findings support the assumption that communication apprehension is biologically based, suggest that the Myers-Briggs type preference framework offers an alternative way of understanding communication apprehension, and point out the need for new approaches to understanding the phenomenon of communication apprehension.     

Rethinking Communication Apprehension: A Myers-Briggs Perspective

This study is an examination of relationships between Myers-Briggs personality type preferences, based on Jungian theory, and communication apprehension. Results showed that participants who preferred introversion or sensing reported significantly higher levels of communication apprehension in general and across the group, dyadic, meeting, and public contexts than did participants who preferred extraversion or intuition. In addition, participants who preferred feeling reported higher levels of communication anxiety in the public context than those who preferred thinking. Findings support the assumption that communication apprehension is biologically based, suggest that the Myers-Briggs type preference framework offers an alternative way of understanding communication apprehension, and point out the need for new approaches to understanding the phenomenon of communication apprehension.     

Testing the aesthetic significance of the golden-section rectangle

The aesthetic significance of the golden-section rectangle was tested in two studies designed to obviate some of the criticisms of earlier experiments. In the first, employing the method of use, the mean sides-ratios of samples of paintings from five subject-matter categories (landscape, still life, head-and-shoulders portrait, upper-body portrait, full-length portrait) provided no evidence for the significance of the golden section. However, the sides ratio of portraits varied between categories in ways that were consistent with the requirements of the proportions of the subject matter. In the second study, using the method of production, participants produced the most pleasing four-sided shape, under four instruction conditions. Under a 'portrait painting' condition and a 'landscape painting' condition, the mean sides-ratios differed significantly from the golden section. Under two 'context free' geometric shape conditions--horizontal rectangle and vertical rectangle--the mean sides-ratio approximated the golden section. The results are discussed in terms of the methodological requirements for a valid test of the aesthetic significance of the golden section and the possibility that this ratio may indeed have special significance.     

Teacher report and direct assessment of preferences for identifying reinforcers for young children

Teachers were asked to identify and rank 10 preferred stimuli for 9 toddlers, and a hierarchy of preference for these items was determined via a direct preference assessment. The reinforcing efficacy of the most highly preferred items identified by each method was evaluated concurrently in a reinforcer assessment. The reinforcer assessment showed that all stimuli identified as highly preferred via the direct preference assessment and teacher rankings functioned as reinforcers. The highest ranked stimuli in the direct assessment were more reinforcing than the teachers' top-ranked stimuli for 5 of 9 participants, whereas the teachers' top-ranked stimulus was more reinforcing than the highest ranked stimulus of the direct assessment for only 1 child. A strong positive correlation between rankings generated through the two assessments was identified for only 1 of the 9 participants. Despite poor correspondence between rankings generated through the teacher interview and direct preference assessment, results of the reinforcer assessment suggest that both methods are effective in identifying reinforcers for toddlers.     

Consistent contrast and correlation in free sorting

Two experiments investigated free sorting, a type of unsupervised learning, with multiattribute drawings of alien animals. In previous research on concept formation, with simpler stimulus structure than ours, participants were insensitive to correlational structure in the stimuli, producing primarily "ID sorts," based on the values ofjust 1 dimension or attribute. Our experiments showed that participants used many strategies in categorizing but preferred to generate groupings that reflected the correlations in input when this did not violate consistent contrast. The second experiment used hierarchically structured stimuli to show that participants' sort strategies favor consistency within a set of contrasting categories, distinct from any preference for 1D sorting. Finally, both experiments show that correlational sorts are much more likely when the correlation-based sort contrasts consistently. Our data show complexity at work in free sort tasks: People are sensitive to multiple and sometimes conflicting biases for consistency and correlational structure in the category systems they create.