Geophysical variables and behavior: XXI. Geomagnetic variation as possible enhancement stimuli for UFO reports preceding earthtremors

The contribution of geomagnetic variation to the occurrence of UFORs (reports of UFOs) within the New Madrid States during the 6-mo. increments before increases in the numbers of IV-V or less intensity earthquakes within the central USA was determined. Although statistically significant zero-order correlations existed between measures of earthquakes, UFORs and geomagnetic variability, the association between the latter two deteriorated markedly when their shared variance with earthquakes was held constant. These outcomes are compatible with the hypothesis that geomagnetic variability (or phenomena associated with it) may enhance UFORs but only if tectonic stress and strain are increasing within the region.     

Two types of empirical adequacy: a partial structures approach

The notion of empirical adequacy has received recent philosophical attention, especially within the framework of the semantic approach. Empirical adequacy, as explicated in the semantic approach, concerns the relationship between empirical substructures and some phenomena. The aim here is to differentiate this notion of empirical adequacy from one concerning the relationship between data and phenomena. Distinguishing each notion of empirical adequacy emphasizes different aspects of scientific practice—one concerning theory-development from the basis of an established theory, the other concerning theory-development from the basis of data-fitting, where established theory may not foster further development. To illustrate this contrast, an example from financial economics is considered.     

A theoretical review of the misinformation effect: Predictions from an activation-based memory model

This article reviews the major empirical results and theoretical issues from over 20 years of research on people’s acceptance of false information about recently experienced events (see, e.g., Loftus, 1975). Several theoretical perspectives are assessed in terms of their ability to account for the various and sometimes conflicting results in the literature. Theoretical perspectives reviewed include the trace alteration hypothesis, the blocking hypothesis, the task demands/strategic effects hypothesis, source monitoring, and an activation-based semantic memory account. On the basis of its ability to account for the reviewed data and other cognitive phenomena, an activation-based semantic network model of memory is suggested for understanding the data and planning future research in the area.     

Intentions are Optimality Beliefs – But Optimizing What?

In this paper an empirical theory about the nature of intention is sketched. After stressing the necessity of reckoning with intentions in philosophy of action a strategy for deciding empirically between competing theories of intention is exposed and applied for criticizing various philosophical theories of intention, among others that of Bratman. The hypothesis that intentions are optimality beliefs is defended on the basis of empirical decision theory. Present empirical decision theory however does not provide an empirically satisfying elaboration of the desirability concepts used in these optimality beliefs. Based on process theories of deliberation two hypotheses for filling this gap are developed.     

The elusive importance effect: more failure for the Jamesian perspective on the importance of importance in shaping self-esteem

ABSTRACT Following William James (1890/1963) , many leading self‐esteem researchers continue to support the Individual‐importance hypothesis—that the relation between specific facets of self‐concept and global self‐esteem depends on the importance an individual places on each specific facet. However, empirical support for the hypothesis is surprisingly elusive, whether evaluated in terms of an importance‐weighted average model, a generalized multiple regression approach for testing self‐concept‐by‐importance interactions, or idiographic approaches. How can actual empirical support for such an intuitively appealing and widely cited psychological principle be so elusive? Hardy and Moriarty (2006) , acknowledging this previous failure of the Individual‐importance hypothesis, claim to have solved the conundrum, demonstrating an innovative idiographic approach that provides clear support for it. However, a critical evaluation of their new approach, coupled with a reanalysis of their data, undermines their claims. Indeed, their data provide compelling support against the Individual‐importance hypothesis, which remains as elusive as ever.     

Consciousness and inference to the best explanation: Compiling empirical evidence supporting the access-phenomenal distinction and the overflow hypothesis

A tacit assumption in the field of consciousness studies is that the more empirical evidence a theory can explain, the better it fares when weighed against competitors. If one wants to take seriously the potential for empirical evidence to move forward debates in consciousness studies, there is a need to gather, organize, validate, and compare evidence. We present an inference to the best explanation (IBE) process on the basis of empirical support that is applicable in debates between competing theories of consciousness. Our proposed IBE process consists in four steps: Assimilate, Compile, Validate, and Compare. Until now, the vast majority of the work in the field has consisted in gathering empirical evidence for theories i.e., the assimilation step. To illustrate the feasibility of our proposed IBE process, and what it may look like when applied in practice, we deliver a complete collection (the compilation step) of empirical support for the distinction between A-Consciousness and P-Consciousness and the overflow hypothesis. Finally, we offer an example of the validation step, by scrutinizing the interpretation of aphantasics’ performance on retro-cue paradigms offered in the literature in support of the overflow hypothesis. The compilation we deliver here is the first effort in the IBE process, the end result of which — hopefully — will be the ability of the research community to carry out side-by-side comparisons of theories and the empirical phenomena they claim to explain, i.e., the comparison step.     

Aging and depression

The assumption that aging is associated with an increased risk of depression is a recurring theme in the gerontological literature. Yet empirical studies that have investigated the relation between aging and depression do not show consistent support for this assumption or hypothesis. Indeed, some investigators contend that the thrust of empirical evidence favors a view of elderly persons as relatively immune from depression, at least in contrast to their younger adult counterparts. The present article examines the empirical basis for these disparate claims in the context of a careful review of the growing body of research on the relation between aging and depression. The central conclusion of the review is that diverse measurement approaches, coupled with flaws in design and analysis, make it difficult to draw any definitive conclusions regarding the age-depression relation at this time. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for future research.     

Creative productivity and age: A mathematical model based on a two-step cognitive process

It is argued that several empirical aspects of the relation between age and productivity can be explained by hypothesizing a simple two-step model of the creative process. Such a hypothesis permits a delayed single-peak function to result from an underlying process of constantly decelerating decay. The derived equation describes creative productivity as a function of individual age. The equation is not only shown to be consistent with empirical data on the relation between age and achievement, but additionally several important empirical predictions and theoretical consequences are inferred from the model. For instance, the model (a) maintains that the age curves may be largely the intrinsic outcome of cognitive processes rather than the extrinsic effect of developmental changes or sociological influences; (b) predicts the explanatory superiority of professional over chronological age; (c) explains the observed positive intercorrelation among creative precociousness, productivity, and longevity in terms of their mutual dependence upon individual differences in creative potential; and (d) provides a substantive basis for interpreting the variation in age peaks across disciplines by introducing the concepts of ideation rate, elaboration rate, and creative half-life. Tests to confirm or disconfirm the theoretical model are also proposed.     

The Pseudo prefixation Effect in Visual Word Recognition: A True-Neither Strategic Nor Orthographic-Morphemic Effect

The question of how word morphology is coded and retrieved during visual word recognition has given rise to a large number of empirical studies. The results, however, do not enable one to decide between alternative models of morphological representation and processing. It is argued in this paper that the contrast between pseudoprefixed words and non-prefixed control words can provide an empirical basis for deciding between hypotheses of morphology representation as sublexical or lexical. This contrast has been used in the three lexical decision experiments reported here, which show that decision times for pseudoprefixed words are significantly slower than for non-prefixed control words. This pseudoprefixation effect strongly supports the hypothesis that morphology is coded and processed sublexically during word recognition. The experimental conditions employed allow both strategic and strictly orthographic explanations for the pseudoprefixation effect to be dismissed.     

What causes birth order-intelligence patterns? The admixture hypothesis, revived.

Recent evidence shows that the relation between birth order and intelligence is not the same in cross-sectional and within-family data. This simple empirical observation invalidates the conclusions from hundreds of previous birth order studies that relied on cross-sectional data. Simultaneously, the empirical foundation disappears from underneath theories like dilution and the confluence model that use explanatory processes occurring within the family. A theory proposed almost 25 years ago--the admixture hypothesis--effectively accounts for these empirical patterns. In this article, the author describes why birth order is of such intense interest to both parents and researchers (the birth order trap), discusses past birth order-intelligence patterns, shows that the admixture hypothesis accounts for those patterns, and reframes the original argument to support future productive research efforts.     

Comment on Levine's blank trial method: A procedure for estimating true hypothesis behavior

When Levine's method of blank trial probes is used to study hypothesis behavior the probability that a probe results in a cue-defined choice combination usually lies between .70 and .90, depending upon the age group and the treatment conditions. It may not be safe to assume that each such combination signifies an hypothesis. A procedure for estimating the probability of true hypothesis behavior is presented, including a validity test for the resulting estimate. The procedure is applied to data taken from three research reports, and reveals substantial differences between age and treatment groups. Implications of the procedure for correctly interpreting empirical results are discussed.     

Phonemes: Lexical access and beyond

Phonemes play a central role in traditional theories as units of speech perception and access codes to lexical representations. Phonemes have two essential properties: they are ‘segment-sized’ (the size of a consonant or vowel) and abstract (a single phoneme may be have different acoustic realisations). Nevertheless, there is a long history of challenging the phoneme hypothesis, with some theorists arguing for differently sized phonological units (e.g. features or syllables) and others rejecting abstract codes in favour of representations that encode detailed acoustic properties of the stimulus. The phoneme hypothesis is the minority view today. We defend the phoneme hypothesis in two complementary ways. First, we show that rejection of phonemes is based on a flawed interpretation of empirical findings. For example, it is commonly argued that the failure to find acoustic invariances for phonemes rules out phonemes. However, the lack of invariance is only a problem on the assumption that speech perception is a bottom-up process. If learned sublexical codes are modified by top-down constraints (which they are), then this argument loses all force. Second, we provide strong positive evidence for phonemes on the basis of linguistic data. Almost all findings that are taken (incorrectly) as evidence against phonemes are based on psycholinguistic studies of single words. However, phonemes were first introduced in linguistics, and the best evidence for phonemes comes from linguistic analyses of complex word forms and sentences. In short, the rejection of phonemes is based on a false analysis and a too-narrow consideration of the relevant data.     

Identification and Testing of Modes in Beliefs

Characterizing diversity in beliefs is of paramount importance in empirical research on human behavior. In game theory, the focus is on the hypothesis formation. We present a data set with ideal properties for characterizing such diversity. The data consist of hypotheses on the empirical distribution of opponent choices. Using nonparametric techniques, we identify modes in the data corresponding to subpopulations of behavioral types and find the statistical significance of these modes in the underlying population distribution.     

A century of research on masculinity and femininity: a critical review

The psychological study of masculinity (M) and femininity (F) throughout the twentieth century shows two very different approaches. In the first half of last century, authors try to test the bipolar continuum hypothesis, whereas during the second half, the hypothesis of two orthogonal dimensions predominates. Empirical studies carried out in various countries with the classic M and F scales show that the data do not support: a) the bipolar continuum hypothesis; b) the close relationship between masculinity/men and femininity/women as the single pattern of functional development; and c) the convergence validity of the different assessment instruments. In turn, the empirical results obtained with the new M and F scales show: a) the multidimensionality instead of bi-dimensionality of the different scales; b) that the different M and F scales are not equivalent; and c) that there is no theory capable of guiding the development of new scales to assess these constructs. At the beginning of the 21st century, after the critical evaluation of the studies carried out during about 100 years, we face a critical question: is it worthwhile to continue talking about M and F within the field of science and, more specifically, within the field of psychology?     

Underconfidence in sensory discrimination: The interaction between experimental setting and response strategies

In a recent issue of this journal, Baranski and Petrusic (1994) presented empirical data revealing overconfidence in sensory discrimination. In this paper, we propose an explanation of Baranski and Petrusic’s results, based on an idiosyncrasy in the experimental setting that misleads subjects who are using an unwarranted symmetry assumption. Experiment 1 showed that when this hypothesis is controlled for, a large underconfidence bias is obtained with Baranski and Petrusic’s procedure. The results of Experiment 2 confirmed that overconfidence is difficult to obtain in subject-controlled sensory discrimination tasks, even for a very low proportion of correct responses. The different results obtained in sensory and cognitive tasks suggest that one should not uncritically draw parallels between confidence in sensory and cognitive judgments.     

Exemplars in the mist: the cognitive substrate of the representativeness heuristic

The idea that people often make probability judgments by a heuristic short-cut, the representativeness heuristic, has been widely influential, but also criticized for being vague. The empirical trademark of the heuristic is characteristic deviations between normative probabilities and judgments (e.g., the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect). In this article the authors contrast two hypotheses concerning the cognitive substrate of the representativeness heuristic, the prototype hypothesis (Kahneman & Frederick, 2002) and the exemplar hypothesis (Juslin & Persson, 2002), in a task especially designed to elicit representativeness effects. Computational modelling and an experiment reveal that representativeness effects are evident early in training and persist longer in a more complex task environment and that the data are best accounted for by a model implementing the exemplar hypothesis.     

Agrammatic Broca's aphasia is not associated with a single pattern of comprehension performance

One influential hypothesis posits that the brain regions implicated in Broca's aphasia are responsible for specific syntactic operations that are necessary for the comprehension and production of sentences (Grodzinsky, 1986, 1990, in press). The empirical basis of this hypothesis is the claim that Broca's aphasics have no difficulty understanding sentences in the active voice (and other "canonical" sentence types, such as subject relatives and clefts with negative predicates), but perform at chance level with passive voice constructions (and other "noncanonical" sentences such as object-gap relatives and object clefts). In the face of well-established results indicating that Broca's aphasics can exhibit several different performance patterns on these sentence types, Grodzinsky, Pi?ango, Zurif, and Drai (1999) argued that these conflicting results do not challenge the theory when the data are analyzed appropriately. They carried out a creative statistical analysis of the comprehension performance of published cases of Broca's aphasia and concluded that all of these cases are in agreement with the predicted pattern: chance on passives and 100% correct on actives. Here we show that the statistical reasoning adopted by Grodzinsky et al. (1999) is flawed. We also show that the comprehension performance of a substantial number of the Broca's aphasics in their own sample does not conform to the pattern required. Rather, contrary to these authors' claim, Broca's aphasia is not associated with a consistent pattern of sentence comprehension performance, but allows for a number of distinct patterns in different patients.     

儿童的分配公平性:心理理论的作用

心理理论是影响儿童分配公平性的重要因素之一。"多重动机"的理论假设认为心理理论能够帮助儿童在不同的动机中权衡利弊,找到满足自我利益和他人需求之间的平衡;其中,感知需求、推断意图、理解情绪是影响独裁者博弈、最后通牒博弈、第三方惩罚中分配公平性的主要成分。未来研究需为此提供更多实证依据,探讨不同类型的公平分配与心理理论各组成成分的关系,以及可否通过训练心理理论能力促进儿童公平概念的发展。     

Some observations upon perceptual organization and the mere exposure effect

The mere repetition of events tends to enhance subjective familiarity and subjective preference for those events. It has been shown that the enhancement of subjective preference is neither contingent upon a feeling of familiarity nor an awareness of the physical identity of the stimulus during learning. This finding is surprising since the weight of existing theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that subjective preference is derivative of familiarity. An experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that at least one preattentive/preconscious product, figure-ground organization, is shared between the processes responsible for preference enhancement and those responsible for the enhancement of recognition memory. There were two significant findings. First, subjects were able to discriminate between objectively familiar stimuli and objectively unfamiliar stimuli on the basis of preference judgments but were unable to do so on the basis of familiarity judgments. Second, preference enhancement occurred only for those objectively familiar stimuli for which the figure-ground aspects had not been phenomenally reversed. The significance of these findings is discussed.     

Is there any relationship between sexual attraction and gender typology?

People can be classified as attracted to both sexes, to men, to women, or to neither sex, and also as instrumental-expressive, instrumental, expressive, or non-instrumental-expressive. The two hypotheses tested herein are, on the one hand, the relative independence between these two typologies and, on the other, the close relation between sexual dimorphism and sexual attraction, in contrast to the relative independence between sexual dimorphism and the instrumental and expressive domains. A total of 503 university students (284 women and 219 men) completed two assessment instruments: The Sexual Attraction Questionnaire (SAQ) and the Bem Sex Role Inventory (BSRI, 12 items). Analysis of contingency tables was performed. The results provide empirical support for the hypothesis of independence of the two typologies, solid support for the relation between sexual dimorphism and sexual attraction, and clear support for the independence between the gender domains and sexual dimorphism. The implications of these data for the different outlooks concerning the relations between sex and gender are established.