Predicting presidential performance in the United States: equation replication on recent survey results

For more than 2 decades, researchers have tried to identify the variables that predict the overall performance of U.S. presidents. In 1986, there emerged a 6-variable prediction equation (D. K. Simonton, 1986c, 1987b) that has been replicated repeatedly. The predictors are years in office, war years, scandal, assassination, heroism in war, and intellectual brilliance. The author again replicated the equation on recent rankings of all presidents from George Washington through William Jefferson Clinton according to a survey of 719 experts (W. R. Ridings, Jr., & S. B. McIver, 1997). The original 6-variable equation successfully predicted both the overall rankings as well as the 5 core components of the rankings (leadership qualities, accomplishment, political skill, appointments, character and integrity). The predictive value of the equation was illustrated for the presidencies of Ronald W. Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.     

Presidential IQ, Openness, Intellectual Brilliance, and Leadership: Estimates and Correlations for 42 U.S. Chief Executives

Individual differences in intelligence are consistently associated with leader performance, including the assessed performance of presidents of the United States. Given this empirical significance, IQ scores were estimated for all 42 chief executives from George Washington to G. W. Bush. The scores were obtained by applying missing-values estimation methods (expectation-maximization) to published assessments of (a) IQ (Cox, 1926; n =  8), (b) Intellectual Brilliance (Simonton, 1986c; n =  39), and (c) Openness to Experience (Rubenzer & Faschingbauer, 2004; n =  32). The resulting scores were then shown to correlate with evaluations of presidential leadership performance. The implications for George W. Bush and his presidency were then discussed.     

Book reviews

Recent Books by Division Members The Art of the Psychotherapist. New York: W.W. Norton, 1987. 321 pp. (hardcover). $27.95.

Don Dinkmeyer Sr., Gary D. McKay, Don Dinkmeyer, Jr., James S. Dinkmeyer, and Jon Carlson. PREP for Effective Family Living. Circle Pines, MN: American Guidance Service, 1985. (complete PREP kit). $79.50.

Tom Greening (Ed.). American Politics and Humanistic Psychology. Dallas: Saybrook Publishing, 1984. 223 pp. (paperback). $10.00.

Arthur Freeman and Vincent Greenwood (Eds.). Cognitive Therapy: Applications in Psychiatric and Medical Settings. New York: Human Sciences Press, 1986. 234 pp. (paperback). $16.95.

G. Marian Kinget. On Being Human: A Systematic View (Enlarged Ed.). Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1987. 262 pp. (paperback/ hardcover). $14.50/$26.75.

Jeffrey A. Kottler. On Being a Therapist. San Francisco: Jossey‐Bass, 1986. 169 pp. (hardcover).

Alvin R. Mahrer. Therapeutic Experiencing: The Process of Change. New York: W. W. Norton, 1986. 419 pp. (hardcover). $34.95.

Rollo May. My Quest for Beauty. Dallas: Saybrook Publishing, 1985. 244 pp. (hardcover). $18.95.

Edward L. Murray. Imaginative Thinking and Human Existence. Pittsburgh: Duquesne University Press, 1986. 271 pp. (hardcover). $24.00.

William W. Purkey and John J. Schmidt. The Inviting Relationship: An Expanded Perspective for Professional Counseling. Englewood Cliffs, N J: Prentice‐Hall, 1987. 180 pp. (paperbook). S 15.95.

Edward W. L. Smith. Sexual Aliveness. Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 1987. 126 pp. (hardcover). $16.95.

Judi Striano. How to Find a Good Psychotherapist: A Consumer Guide. Santa Barbara, CA: Professional Press, 1987. 67 pp. (paperback). $8.95.

Florence J. van Zuuren, Frederick J. Wertz, and Bep Mook (Eds.). Advances in Qualitative Psychology: Themes and Variations. Berwyn, PA: Swets North America, 1987. 209 pp. (paperback). $22.00

New dimensions in family therapy

Brief Therapy With Single‐Parent Families, by Anita Morawetz, M.S.W. and Gillian Walker, M.S.W. New York: Brunner/Mazel, Publishers, 1984. 373 pages, (hardcover) $30.00     

Differences in Performance of Jewish and Non-Jewish Students on the American Council Psychological Examination

Abstract

(Murphy, G., Ed. Human Nature and Enduring Peace. New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1945. Pp. 475.) Reviewed by George W. Hartmann.     

Reasons for Conflict: Political Implications of a Definition of Terrorism

This essay analyzes the U.S. political situation before the 2003 invasion of Iraq and ties this conflict to the events of 9/11. The guiding thread of the discussion is the definition of “terrorism” that has led to George W. Bush's declared “war on terrorism.” By means of Hegel's dialectic logic, the essay exposes the problem offered by the category of causality involved in the definition of terrorism: Is terrorism the original “cause” of the war declared on it by the United States (as the Bush administration claims) or is terrorism rather the very “consequence” of that war?     

Diversity and deliberation: bioethics commissions and moral reasoning

This article considers the sort of diversity in perspective appropriate for a presidential commission on bioethics, and by implication, high-level governmental commissions on ethics more generally. It takes as its point of comparison the respective reports on human cloning produced by the National Bioethics Advisory Commission, appointed by President Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush's President's Council on Bioethics, under the leadership of its original chair, Leon Kass. I argue that the Clinton Commission Report exemplifies forensic diversity (the type of diversity between contesting parties in a legal case), while the Kass Council Report exemplifies academic diversity (the diversity found in a medieval disputatio). Drawing upon Thomas Aquinas, I argue that the type of diversity most appropriate for such advisory bodies is deliberative diversity, which facilitates the President's process of taking counsel. After considering their respective charges, I suggest that neither the Clinton Commission nor the Kass Council possessed an adequate degree of deliberative diversity for their respective tasks.     

A Study of Certain Incentives Applied under Schoolroom Conditions

Abstract

An investigation of certain abilities fundamental to the study of Geometry. By John Harrison Minnick (Doctor's dissertation, University of Pennsylvania), Lancaster, Pa., 1918, 108 p. Reviewed by William E. Story.

National service and national education. Reviewed by Eric George. London, P. S. King &; Son; 1913. 83 p.

Festskrift til Overlærer J. Nicolaysen's 70 aars jubilæum. Reviewed by Kristiania, J. W. Cappelen, 1917. Reviewed by Martin L. Reymert.     

Note on the Relation of Simple to Serial Reaction

Abstract

John A. Larson, in collaboration with George W. Haney and Leonarde Keeler. Lying and Its Detection. A Study of Deception and Deception Tests. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press, 1932. Pp. xxii+463.     

Sexism Versus Partisanship: A New Look at the Question of Whether America is Ready for a Woman President

We question the validity of traditional polling about the likelihood of respondents to vote for a woman president and argue that the use of such polls may overestimate sexism and underestimate the role that party identification and individual characteristics play in deciding about whether to vote for a woman president. Our analysis of data collected in May–June 2004 show that many people who say they will not vote for a woman for president would do so if given realistic, specific, political scenarios via head-to-head match-ups with potential candidates. Although survey respondents preferred George W. Bush to Hillary Clinton, the margin between these candidates was close especially considering that Bush had been actively campaigning for months, whereas Clinton had not.     

Infantile disorders within the new world order?: Review of The Political Psychology of the Gulf War edited by Stanley A. Renshon. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1993.

The Gulf War would chart the future of the world for the next 100 years (George Bush, 1991, quoted in Renshon, p. 221).The Gulf crisis … was essentially an interArab event into which outsiders were drawn (Bernard Lewis, 1991, quoted by Brown, 1993, in Renshon, p. 17).The Persian Gulf War was a war like no other. With respect to media coverage, it was arguably the most sanitized, or distanced, war in modern times. Civilians of the coalition countries saw and heard little to suggest the horror of war. Instead, they were fed images of technological marvels—perfectly aimed ‘smart bombs’ flying down chimneys, or allied ‘Patriot’ missiles blasting SCUDS out of the sky. In many ways the television images seen by viewers in allied countries seemed more like a video-game war than a real war … As in wars past, the enemy was carefully crafted into a villain. In Hussein's case, he was portrated as the Hitler of the 1990s … The immediate aftermath of the war provided an intriguing example of group dynamics — For a window of time, people across the U.S. glorified war and, perhaps without realizing it, the killing of Iraqis — But one might question this form of social contagion or, what Brewster Smith called, ‘glowing self-congratulation’, whereby celebration took precedence over thinking about, and mourning for, those on both sides who lost their lives or who were seriously injured (Lehman, 1993, pp. 3–4).History demonstrates that it is a dangerous illusion to suppose that the destinies of continents and of the world community can somehow be managed from one single capital (Boris Yeltsin, New York Times, 6 December 1994, p. A4).     

The Conceptual Complexity of Presidents Carter and Clinton: An Automated Content Analysis of Temporal Stability and Source Bias

Previous work on the measurement of leaders' foreign policy orientations by Margaret G. Hermann argues that spontaneous utterances should provide more useful indications of stable personality characteristics than prepared statements. This paper reconsiders this question for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton through an automated coding system. A large number of spontaneous utterances and prepared statements by these presidents were compared in an effort to determine the stability of their conceptual complexity across source types and over time. The findings support the ability of Hermann's conceptual complexity measurement to capture robust differences between individuals; however, scores derived from spontaneous comments varied significantly from those derived from prepared remarks. In addition, the trait appears to be stable for some subjects (Carter) but not for others (Clinton).     

Purpose as personal

Ethics and Education R. S. Peters London: George Allen &; Unwin, Ltd., 1966 Pp. 333, $4.50     

Book review

Raison et déraison d'État. Théoriciens et theories de la raison d'État aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles sous la direction de Yves Charles Zarka Paris, Presses Universitaires de France, 1994 pp. 436, 248 FF. ISBN 9–782130–461616.

Beverly C. Southgate: ’Covetous of Truth’: The Life and Work of Thomas White, 1593–1676 Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1993. 189 pp. £60.00 ISBN 0–7923–1926–5

George Dicker: Descartes: An Analytical and Historical Introduction Oxford University Press, 1993 (248 pp.) £14.95 pbk. ISBN 0–19–507590–0

Theo Verbeek: Descartes and the Dutch: Early Reactions to Cartesian Philosophy, 1637–1650. Carbondale and Edwardsville, Southern Illinois University Press, 1992, x + 168 pp. $30.00 ISBN 0–8093–1617‐X

David Berman: George Berkeley: Idealism and the Man Oxford University Press, 1994. £27.50 ISBN 0–19–826746–0

Joseph Mali: The Rehabilitation of Myth: Vico's New Science Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. pp. xv + 275. £35.00 ISBN 0–521–41952–2

R. C. Solomon and K. W. Higgins (eds): The Age of German Idealism Routledge: London, 1993. Pp. 408. £55.00 (hbk) ISBN 0–415–05604–7

T. L. S. Sprigge: James and Bradley: American Truth and British Reality Chicago and La Salle, Illinois: Open Court, 1993 Pp. xiv + 630. $66.95 (hbk), $29.95 (pbk). ISBN 0–8126–9227–6 (pbk)

A. W. Moore: The Infinite Routledge, London and New York (1990). First published in paperback, 1991. xiv + 268 pp., £10.99 ISBN 0–415–07048–1     

Simple method for predicting American presidential greatness from victory margin in popular vote (1824-1996)

The author tested the simple method (SM) for predicting presidential greatness from the winner's victory margin in the popular vote and A. M. Schlesinger Jr.'s (1986) cycles of American political history with the expert sample presidential rankings of W. J. Ridings Jr. and S. B. McIver (1997). The SM, which involves only simple calculations on minimal data available shortly after an election, predicts greatness ratings that are above average for winners with high victory margins in years of public purpose and for winners with low victory margins in years of private interest. Also, the SM predicts ratings that are below average for winners with low victory margins in public purpose years and for winners with high victory margins in private interest years. Based on the data for 42 elections from 1824 to 1996, the SM success rate was 81.0% for all elections, 85.2% for the 27 1st-term elections, 86.2% for elections after 1880, and 94.4% for 1st-term elections after 1880. Chi-square analyses showed all percentages significant at the .001 level.     

Changes in Attitudes in a Group of College Students during their College Course and after Graduation

Abstract

(Hayakawa, S. I. Language in Thought and Action. New York: Harcourt. Brace, 1949. Pp. 307.) Reviewed by William E. Galt

(Pastore, N. The Nature-Nurture Controversy. New York: King's Crown Press, 1949. Pp. 213.) Reviewed by George K. Morlan     

An Analysis of the Effect of the Test Situation upon the Rorschach Record: Formal Scoring Characteristics

Abstract

Andrew, Gwen; Hartwell, Samuel W.; Hutt, Max L.; and Walton, Ralph E. The Michigan Picture Test. Chicago: Science Research Associates, 1953. Reviewed by Edwin S. Shneidman, Ph.D.

Beck, Samuel J. The Six Schizophrenias: Reaction Patterns in Children and Adults. New York: The American Orthopsychiatric Association, Inc. 1954. Pp. x + 238. Reviewed by Mortimer M. Meyer.

Bellak, Leopold. The Thematic Apperception Test and the Children's Apperception Test in Clinical Use. New York: Grune and Stratton, 1954. pp. 282. $6.75. Reviewed by Edwin S. Shneidman, Ph.D.

Meehl, Paul E. Clinical versus statistical prediction. A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1954. Pp. x + 149. Reviewed by Kenneth B. Little

Rubinstein, Eli A., and Lorr, Maurice (Eds.). A Survey of Clinical Practice in Psychology. New York: International Universities Press, 1954, pp. 363. Reviewed by Ruth S. Tolman

Sarason, S. B. The Clinical Interaction: with special reference to the Rorschach. New York: Harper Brothers, 1954. Pp. X + 425. Reviewed by Mortimer M. Meyer

Ulett, George. Rorschach Introductory Manual: A Primer for the Clinical Psychiatric Worker; With Interpretative Diagram to Permit Clinical Use While Learning the Ink-blot Technique; Beverly Hills: Western Psychological Services, 1955; Price: $3.50. Reviewed by Walter G. Klopfer, Ph.D.     

Children's comprehension of sentences with focus particles

We report three studies investigating children's and adults' comprehension of sentences containing the focus particle only. In Experiments 1 and 2, four groups of participants (6-7 years, 8-10 years, 11-12 years and adult) compared sentences with only in different syntactic positions against pictures that matched or mismatched events described by the sentence. Contrary to previous findings (Crain, S., Ni, W., & Conway, L. (1994). Learning, parsing and modularity. In C. Clifton, L. Frazier, & K. Rayner (Eds.), Perspectives on sentence processing. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum; Philip, W., & Lynch, E. (1999). Felicity, relevance, and acquisition of the grammar of every and only. In S. C. Howell, S. A. Fish, & T. Keith-Lucas (Eds.), Proceedings of the 24th annual Boston University conference on language development. Somerville, MA: Cascadilla Press) we found that young children predominantly made errors by failing to process contrast information rather than errors in which they failed to use syntactic information to restrict the scope of the particle. Experiment 3 replicated these findings with pre-schoolers.     

Toxic Environment of war: Maternal prenatal heavy metal load predicts infant emotional development

BackgroundPeople in war zones are exposed to heavy metal contamination deriving from new-generation weapons, in addition to exposure to psychologically traumatizing war events. Pregnant women and their children-to-be are particularly vulnerable to both biological and psychological war effects.ObjectiveThe aim of the current study was to analyse the impact of maternal prenatal heavy metal contamination on infant emotional development and to examine the potential moderating role of maternal symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the association between heavy metal load and infant emotional development.MethodsThe participants were 502 Palestinian mothers, pregnant in their first trimester during the 2014 War on Gaza. The mothers were recruited at their delivery (T1) and followed at the infants’ age of 6–7 months (T2; N = 392). The load of five weapon-related heavy metals (chromium, mercury, vanadium, strontium, and uranium) was analysed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP/MS) from mothers’ hair samples at childbirth (T1). Assessment of maternal PTSD symptoms was based on the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ) and infant emotional development on the Infant Behavior Questionnaire (IBQ), both reported by mothers (T2).ResultsTwo of the analysed metals, chromium and uranium, adversely predicted children’s early emotional development, indicated by decreased positive affectivity, increased negative emotionality, and problems in early orientation and regulation. Mother’s PTSD did not moderate the impact of heavy metal contamination on children’s emotional development.ConclusionsAdverse impact of war is not limited to those who experience it directly, but is passed on to future generations through multiple mechanisms. International organizations are obliged to protect parents and infants from the modern weaponry in wars.     

Secondary traumatization among former prisoners of wars' adult children: the mediating role of parental bonding

Background and Objectives: The aversive impact of combat and parents' combat-induced posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on young children has been examined in a few studies. However, the long-term toll of war captivity on secondary traumatization (ST) and the parental bonding of adult children remain unknown. This study examined ST symptoms and parental bonding among adult children of former prisoners of war (ex-POWs' children) that were compared to adult children of comparable veterans (controls' children). Furthermore, we examined the mediating role of parental bonding and exposure to stress in the association between group and ST symptoms. Design: A correlative, cross-sectional study. Methods: Participants were Israeli ex-POWs' children (N = 98) and controls' children (N = 90), whose fathers fought in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. All participants completed a battery of self-reported questionnaires. Results: Ex-POWs' children reported a higher number of ST symptoms and lower levels of fathers' care, as compared to controls' children. Importantly, exposure to stress stemming from fathers' behaviors and fathers' care was found to mediate the association between research group and ST. Conclusions: Forty years after the war ended, the experience of living with ex-POWs is associated with ex-POWs' children psychological outcome.     

book review

Crime and Human Nature: The Definitive Study of the Causes of Crime by James Q. Wilson and Richard J. Herrnstein. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1985, 639 pp., $12.95 paper.

The Negative Scream by Sally O'Brien. London: Routledge &; Kegan Paul, 1985, 148 pp., $12.95 paper.

Captain Kidd and the War Against the Pirates by Robert C. Ritchie. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1986, 306 pp., $20.00 hb.

American Violence &; Public Policy by Lynn A. Curtis (ed.). New Haven: Yale University Press, 1985.

Taking Care of Business: The Economics of Crime by Heroin Abusers by Bruce D. Johnson, Paul J. Goldstein, Edward Preble, James Schmeidler, Douglas S. Lipton, Barry Spunt and Thomas Miller. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1985, 275 pp., $29.00 hb.

Life With Heroin: Voices From the Inner City by Bill Hanson, George Beschner, James M. Walters and Elliott Bovelle (eds.). Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1985, 208 pp., hb.

Policy Analysts in the Bureauaraay by Arnold Meltsner. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976 hb, 1986 paper, 326 pp., $11.95.

>The War on Drugs: Heroin, Cocaine, and Public Policy by James A. Inciardi. Palo Alto, California: Mayfield Publishing Company, 1986, $9.95 paper.

Sartre and Marxist Existentialism by Thomas R. Flynn. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1984, 265 pp., $10.95 paper.