Great oaks from giant acorns grow: How causal‐impact judgments depend on the strength of a cause

Causal impact is maximal when weak causes have strong effects. Do people understand this logic when they assess causal impact? In four experiments, participants judged the causal impact of strong or weak dietary treatments leading to strong or weak health effects in fictitious health studies. Rather than following the ratio of effect strength to treatment strength, judgments were influenced by three aspects of the detectability of a cause–effect relation. First, because detectability depends on the effect being strong more than on the cause being subtle, causal judgments were mainly determined by effect strength, whereas the strength of the causal treatment necessary to induce an effect was often neglected. Second, if causal input was not ignored, judgments increased when the maximal covariation between a strong causal treatment and a strong effect rendered the causal link most detectable. Or, third, causal judgments increased when a plausible causal schema facilitated detection. Consistent with sampling models of judgment and decision making, causal‐impact ratings were driven by an uncritical assessment of a detectable difference in a study sample. However, ratings were insensitive to the logical implications of the underlying causal treatment that was necessary to induce a detectable effect. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neuroimage evidence and the insanity defense

The introduction of neuroscientific evidence in criminal trials has given rise to fears that neuroimagery presented by an expert witness might inordinately influence jurors' evaluations of the defendant. In this experiment, a diverse sample of 1,170 community members from throughout the U.S. evaluated a written mock trial in which psychological, neuropsychological, neuroscientific, and neuroimage-based expert evidence was presented in support of a not guilty by reason of insanity (NGRI) defense. No evidence of an independent influence of neuroimagery was found. Overall, neuroscience-based evidence was found to be more persuasive than psychological and anecdotal family history evidence. These effects were consistent across different insanity standards. Despite the non-influence of neuroimagery, however, jurors who were not provided with a neuroimage indicated that they believed neuroimagery would have been the most helpful kind of evidence in their evaluations of the defendant.     

The influence of forward and backward associative strength on false memories for encoding context

Two experiments examined the effects of forward associative strength (FAS) and backward associative strength (BAS) on false recollection of unstudied lure items. Themes were constructed such that four associates were strongly related to a lure item in terms of FAS or BAS and four associates were weakly related to a lure item in terms of FAS or BAS. Further, when FAS was manipulated, BAS was controlled across strong and weak associates, while FAS was controlled across strong and weak associates when BAS was manipulated. Strong associates were presented in one font while weak associates were presented in a second font. At test, lure items were disproportionately attributed to the source used to present lures' strong associates compared to lures' weak associates, both when BAS was manipulated and when FAS was manipulated. This outcome demonstrates that both BAS and FAS influence lure item false recollection, which favours global-matching models' explanation of false recollection over the explanation offered by spreading activation theories.     

How Quickly We Selectively Forget: Experimental Tests of Information Order on Memory and Candidate Evaluation

Despite enormous variation in the order, positivity, and content of information that real‐world electoral campaigns present to voters, we know little about their interactive role in candidate evaluation. This study presents results from two multiwave experiments that varied the positivity of information, its order, and its personal or policy content and assessed its memorability and impact on evaluations over several days. Consistent with observational evidence, recent information is not only more memorable, but also more impactful, in candidate evaluation. However, these effects on evaluations are asymmetric by the positivity of the information, with negative information more impactful than positive information when it is recent, even though negative information fades more quickly in memory. Furthermore, positive and personal information is more memorable, and positive personal information can serve as a powerful anchor when presented first, diminishing recency effects.     

Second-Guessing the Jury: Stereotypic and Hindsight Biases in Perceptions of Court Cases1

This research examined the effects of stereotypic beliefs and hindsight biases on perceptions of court cases. Subjects read evidentiary material pertaining to a criminal trial in which the defendant either was a stereotyped offender or was not. Additionally, some subjects were given outcome information about the verdict attained in the trial; half of these subjects were told that the defendant had been found guilty, and the other half were told that he had been found not guilty. The remainder were not given any outcome information. Subjects were than asked to predict the likely outcome of a trial based on the presented evidence. Typical hindsight bias effects were expected and obtained for nonstereotyped offenders; subjects considering these cases viewed the evidence as less incriminating when they were told the defendant had been found not guilty, and they found it to be more incriminating when they were told the defendant had been found guilty, when compared to the no-outcome-information group. However, no hindsight biases were evident in judgments of cases involving stereotyped defendants, who were seen as relatively more likely to be guilty regardless of the nature of outcome information presented. Particularly striking was the lack of impact of the “not guilty” outcome information on perceptions of the guilt of stereotyped defendants. These findings suggest that strong expectations held in foresight may not be amenable to modification in hindsight.     

Comparison Opportunity and Judgment Revision

Prior evaluations are frequently challenged and need to be revised. We propose that an important determinant of such revisions is the degree to which the challenge provides an opportunity to compare the target against a competitor. Whenever a challenge offers an opportunity, the information contained in the challene will carry a disproportionate weight in the revised judgments. We call this proposition the comparison–revision hypothesis. In Experiments 1–3, we manipulated comparison opportunity by varying the format of the challenge and examined the weights assigned to different inputs in the revised judgments. The results indicate that prior information about the target receives a greater weight under a noncomparative challenge (which provides information only about the target) than under a comparative challenge (which compares the target with a competitor). In contrast, information presented in the challenge receives a greater weight under a comparative challenge than under a noncomparative challenge. Interestingly, when presented in a comparative format, the information contained in the challenge received a relatively disproportionate weight even when the attributes presented in the challenge were less important than those on which the prior target evaluations were based. Results from Experiment 4 suggest that, under certain conditions, even a noncomparative challenge from a superior competitor can provide strong comparison opportunity and thus cause greater revisions in the prior evaluations of the target. Specifically, a greater elaboration of the initial target information and a high degree of commensurability between the target and competitor information jointly promote comparison opportunity and thus cause greater revisions of the prior target judgments. Our findings offer important extensions to previous research on the effects of amount and elaboration of prior target information on subsequent judgment revision.     

Persuasive Impact of Organizational Value Statements in a Recruitment Context1

Two experiments were conducted to examine the persuasive impact of different types of evidence supporting an organizational recruitment message. In the first experiment, information on organizational values, presented in a recruitment brochure, was supported using statistical, anecdotal, or no evidence. Graduating university students who were attending a job fair (N = 69) were most attracted to the company as an employer when statistical evidence was presented. In the second study, an employed sample (N= 172) received organizational value evidence in the context of either a recruitment brochure or a community newspaper article. Whereas we replicated the findings of the first study in the brochure condition, we found that anecdotal information was most persuasive in the newspaper condition. We conclude that predicting the persuasive impact of evidence for organizational values requires knowledge of both the type of evidence to be employed and the medium in which that evidence is conveyed.     

Job‐Seeker Reactions to Selection Process Information in Job Ads

Using a policy‐capturing methodology, the current study examines if and to what extent individuals utilize selection process information contained in job ads in making evaluations of organizational attractiveness and decisions to apply. Results show both indirect and direct evidence that individuals do attend to and use these cues when presented in job ads in making initial job‐pursuit evaluations. Additionally, the results are consistent with a model derived from the organizational justice literature suggesting that perceptions of selection procedures' measurement accuracy may drive the observed effects. Specifically, ratings of organizational attractiveness and intentions to apply were significantly associated with perceptions of a given selection method's assessment accuracy for those ads that specified its use. Policy‐capturing results also show direct evidence that participants attend to and rely on selection process information in job ads to make job‐pursuit evaluations, and that perceptions of measurement accuracy are related to the degree to which, and how those cues are utilized. Research and applied implications are discussed.     

Influences of credibility of testimony and strength of statistical evidence on children’s and adolescents’ reasoning

According to dual-process models that include analytic and heuristic modes of processing, analytic processing is often expected to become more common with development. Consistent with this view, on reasoning problems, adolescents are more likely than children to select alternatives that are backed by statistical evidence. It is shown here that this pattern depends on the quality of the statistical evidence and the quality of the testimonial that is the typical alternative to statistical evidence. In Experiment 1, 9- and 13-year-olds (N = 64) were presented with scenarios in which solid statistical evidence was contrasted with casual or expert testimonial evidence. When testimony was casual, children relied on it but adolescents did not; when testimony was expert, both children and adolescents relied on it. In Experiment 2, 9- and 13-year-olds (N = 83) were presented with scenarios in which casual testimonial evidence was contrasted with weak or strong statistical evidence. When statistical evidence was weak, children and adolescents relied on both testimonial and statistical evidence; when statistical evidence was strong, most children and adolescents relied on it. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for dual-process accounts of cognitive development.     

Is Measurement Noninvariance a Threat to Inferences Drawn from Randomized Control Trials? Evidence From Empirical and Simulation Studies

Randomized control trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard when evaluating the impact of psychological interventions, educational programs, and other treatments on outcomes of interest. However, few studies consider whether forms of measurement bias like noninvariance might impact estimated treatment effects from RCTs. Such bias may be more likely to occur when survey scales are utilized in studies and evaluations in ways not supported by validation evidence, which occurs in practice. This study consists of simulation and empirical studies examining whether measurement noninvariance impacts treatment effects from RCTs. Simulation study results demonstrate that bias in treatment effect estimates is mild when the noninvariance occurs between subgroups (e.g., male and female participants), but can be quite substantial when being assigned to control or treatment induces the noninvariance. Results from the empirical study show that surveys used in two federally funded evaluations of educational programs were noninvariant across student age groups.     

Expert testimony in child sexual abuse cases: The effects of evidence,coherence and credentials on juror decision making

Psychological experts have been used increasingly to testify in child sexual abuse cases, yet little research has investigated what specific factors make experts effective. This study examined the potential effects that credentials, evidence strength and coherence may have on juror decision making. Sixty‐four mock jurors read cases of child sexual abuse, followed by experts' testimony and rated guilt of the defendant, effectiveness of the expert testimony and credibility of the victim. Evidence strength and coherence of the testimony affected all dependent variables, and the interaction was significant. Guilt ratings of the defendant were lower and the victim was rated as less credible when both evidence strength and coherence were low. The credentials of the expert, however, had negligible impact. These findings indicate that experts can be effective and impact jurors when testimony is either high in coherence or high in evidence. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The strength-based mirror effect in subjective strength ratings: The evidence for differentiation can be produced without differentiation

Criss (Cognitive Psychology 59:297?C319, 2009) reported that subjective ratings of memory strength showed a mirror effect pattern in which strengthening the studied words increased ratings for targets and decreased ratings for lures. She interpreted the effect on lure items as evidence for differentiation, a process whereby lures produce a poorer match to strong than to weak memory traces. However, she also noted that participants might use different mappings between memory evidence and levels of the rating scale when they expected strong versus weak targets; that is, the effect might be produced by decision processes rather than differentiation. We report two experiments designed to distinguish these accounts. Some participants studied pure lists of weak or strong items (presented once or five times, respectively), while others studied mixed lists of half weak and half strong items. The participants from both groups had pure-strength tests: Only strong or only weak items were tested, and the participants were informed of which it would be before the test. The results showed that strength ratings for lures were lower when strong versus weak targets were tested, regardless of whether the study list was pure or mixed. In the mixed-study condition, the effect was produced even after identical study lists, and thus the same degree of differentiation in the studied traces. Therefore, our results suggest that the strength-rating mirror effect is produced by changes in decision processes.     

Women in power-themed tasks: Need for power predicts task enjoyment and power stress

The implicit power motive predicts individuals’ involvement in activities that allow them to have impact and influence on other people. Moreover, substantial evidence indicates that thwarting individuals’ implicit power motive relates to so-called power stress. The present series of studies addresses both topics among female participants. In study 1, findings indicate that the strength of the implicit power motive moderates the relationship between women’s self-reported dominance and their evaluations of a power-related task: A significant link between self-reported dominance and both motivation for task participation and task enjoyment could be verified only when the implicit power motive was well-pronounced. In the subsequent studies, actual and anticipated thwarting of the satisfaction of a strong implicit power motive was associated with different psychological and behavioral indicators of power stress. Participants with a high implicit power motive felt more negative affect (study 2), reported more negative explicit (study 3) and implicit (study 4) attitudes towards a dominant target person, and were coded more often for visible frown reactions (study 5) when the satisfaction of their implicit power motive was (potentially) thwarted compared to participants with a low implicit power motive and participants with a high implicit power motive that was, however, not at risk of being thwarted.

     

When local processing increases the appeal of healthy options

People often encounter self-control challenges in complex everyday environments in which objects that promote a given goal (e.g., to eat healthily) are mixed together with objects that obstruct that goal. For example, healthy and unhealthy food choices are often mixed together in restaurant menus. Because local processing facilitates attention to low-level details, we expect that it may play an important role in these complex situations. In the present studies, we test the hypothesis that local processing supports self-control when goal items and temptations are contextually paired. As predicted, our findings revealed that local processing (relative to global processing) increased evaluations of healthy items when those items were presented together with unhealthy items. As hypothesized, this effect of local processing only occurred when healthy and unhealthy foods were presented as complementary – not competing – options, suggesting that local processing may increase evaluations of healthy options by decreasing the extent to which individuals accept environmental cues that healthy and unhealthy foods belong together. These findings support recent research demonstrating that despite strong evidence of the advantages of global processing for self-control, local processing may also support self-control efforts in some important everyday situations.     

Recall or evaluation of chess positions as determinants of chess skill

Previous research has found that the ability to recall briefly presented chess positions varies with playing strength, except when random positions are used. The suggestion therefore arises that mastery consists of recognizing configurations that are associated with plausible moves. This approach is tested by comparing the memory scores and move-choice protocols of players in six skill categories, using random chess positions. Contrary to any strong form of recognition-association hypothesis, differences in chess skill are shown to persist although memory differences are abolished. It is further shown that the moves selected are not based on those few pieces that are remembered. Skill-related differences in the accuracy of positional evaluations also occur, but they are less marked than in earlier results. An alternative approach to chess skill seems appropriate, in which memory effects may function at the evaluation phase.     

Evidence Evaluation and Evidence Integration in Legal Decision‐Making: Order of Evidence Presentation as a Moderator of Context Effects

Legal decision‐making studies often demonstrate context effects: People's initial beliefs about a suspect's guilt influence their evaluation of subsequent evidence. We examine three potential moderators of these context effects: Order of evidence presentation, ability to ruminate, and valence of the initial belief (innocence or guilt). College students (n = 382) were presented with DNA evidence (incriminating or exonerating) and an ambiguous alibi in one of two orders (or just the alibi), and then evaluated how strongly the alibi incriminated the suspect and the suspect's likelihood of guilt. Results indicated that alibi evaluation exhibited context effects when (i) initial beliefs were of guilt (but not of innocence) and when (ii) evaluating subsequent evidence (but not when retroactively evaluating prior evidence). Rumination failed to moderate any effects. The integration of evidence exhibited recency effects: DNA had a greater impact on participants' beliefs in the suspect's guilt when presented last rather than first. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance Trends and Salesperson Evaluations: The Moderating Roles of Evaluation Task,Managerial Risk Propensity,and Firm Strategic Orientation

Understanding managers’ evaluations of salesperson performance is important for both theoretical and pragmatic reasons. We examine several factors that moderate the influence of performance trends on salesperson evaluations provided by practicing sales managers. Preliminary data from a pilot study indicate that performance trends exert a stronger influence on salesperson evaluations that are prospective (e.g., making a hiring decision) rather than retrospective (e.g., providing an annual evaluation). Study 1’s findings reveal an additional contingency by demonstrating that these trend effects were particularly pronounced for risk-taking sales managers providing prospective evaluations. Finally, evidence from Study 2 documents the moderating influence of firm strategic orientation by showing that trend effects were most prominent for managers making forward-looking evaluations under the aegis of a prospector-based strategic orientation. The latter two studies also offer mediational evidence indicating that trends influence performance evaluations by affecting inferences about a salesperson’s future productivity.     

Contextual influences on implicit evaluation: a test of additive versus contrastive effects of evaluative context stimuli in affective priming

Drawing on two alternative accounts of the affective priming effect (spreading activation vs. response interference), the present research investigated the underlying processes of how evaluative context stimuli influence implicit evaluations in the affective priming task. Employing two sequentially presented prime stimuli (rather than a single prime), two experiments showed that affective priming effects elicited by a given prime stimulus were more pronounced when this stimulus was preceded by a context prime of the opposite valence than when it was preceded by a context prime of the same valence. This effect consistently emerged for pictures (Experiment 1) and words (Experiment 2) as prime stimuli. These results suggest that the impact of evaluative context stimuli on implicit evaluations is mediated by contrast effects in the attention to evaluative information rather than by additive effects in the activation of evaluative information in associative memory.     

Why the sunny side is up: association between affect and vertical position

Abstract— Metaphors linking spatial location and affect (e.g., feeling up or down) may have subtle, but pervasive, effects on evaluation. In three studies, participants evaluated words presented on a computer. In Study 1, evaluations of positive words were faster when words were in the up rather than the down position, whereas evaluations of negative words were faster when words were in the down rather than the up position. In Study 2, positive evaluations activated higher areas of visual space, whereas negative evaluations activated lower areas of visual space. Study 3 revealed that, although evaluations activate areas of visual space, spatial positions do not activate evaluations. The studies suggest that affect has a surprisingly physical basis.