Best linear prediction of composite universe scores

The problem of predicting universe scores for samples of examinees based on their responses to samples of items is treated. A general measurement procedure is described in which multiple test forms are developed from a table of specifications and each form is administered to a different sample of examinees. The measurement model categorizes items according to the cells of such a table, and the linear function derived for minimizing error variance in prediction uses responses to these categories. In addition, some distinctions are drawn between aspects of the approach taken here and the familiar regressed score estimates.The author thanks Robert L. Brennan, Michael J. Kolen, and Richard Sawyer for helpful comments and corrections, and anonymous reviewers for suggested improvements.     

On the myth and the reality of the temporal validity degradation of general mental ability test scores

Claims of changes in the validity coefficients associated with general mental ability (GMA) tests due to the passage of time (i.e., temporal validity degradation) have been the focus of an on-going debate in applied psychology. To evaluate whether and, if so, under what conditions this degradation may occur, we integrate evidence from multiple sub-disciplines of psychology. The temporal stability of construct validity is considered in light of the evidence regarding the differential stability of g and the invariance of measurement properties of GMA tests over the adult life-span. The temporal stability of criterion-related validity is considered in light of evidence from long-term predictive validity studies in educational and occupational realms. The evidence gained from this broad-ranging review suggests that temporal degradation of the construct- and criterion-related validity of ability test scores may not be as ubiquitous as some have previously concluded. Rather, it appears that both construct and criterion-related validity coefficients are reasonably robust over time and that any apparent degradation of criterion-related validity coefficients has more to do with changes in the determinants of task performance and changes in the nature of the criterion domain rather temporal degradation per se (i.e., the age of the test scores). A key exception to the conclusion that temporal validity degradation is more myth than reality concerns decision validity. Although the evidence is sparse, it is likely that the utility of a given GMA test score for making diagnostic decisions about an individual deteriorates over time. Importantly, we also note several areas in need of additional and more rigorous research before strong conclusions can be supported.     

The temporal dynamics of the perceptual consequences of action-effect prediction

An essential aspect of voluntary action control is the ability to predict the perceptual effects of our actions. Although the influence of action-effect prediction on humans’ behavior and perception is unequivocal, it remains unclear when action-effect prediction is generated by the brain. The present study investigates the dynamics of action effect anticipation by tracing the time course of its perceptual consequences. Participants completed an acquisition phase during which specific actions (left and right key-presses) were associated with specific visual effects (upward and downward dots motion). In the test phase they performed a 2 AFC identification task in which they were required to indicate whether the dots moved upward or downward. To isolate any effects of action-effect prediction on perception, participants were presented with congruent and incongruent dot motion in which the association participants learned in the previous acquisition phase was respected and violated, respectively. Crucially, to assess the temporal dynamics of action prediction, congruent and incongruent stimuli were presented at different intervals before or after action execution. We observed higher sensitivity (d′) to motion discrimination in congruent vs. incongruent trials only when stimuli were presented from about 220 ms before the action to 280 ms after the action. The temporal dynamics of our effect suggest that action-effect prediction modulates perception at later stages of motor preparation.     

Shifts of the psychometric function: Distinguishing bias from perceptual effects

Morgan, Dillenburger, Raphael, and Solomon have shown that observers can use different response strategies when unsure of their answer, and, thus, they can voluntarily shift the location of the psychometric function estimated with the method of single stimuli (MSS; sometimes also referred to as the single-interval, two-alternative method). They wondered whether MSS could distinguish response bias from a true perceptual effect that would also shift the location of the psychometric function. We demonstrate theoretically that the inability to distinguish response bias from perceptual effects is an inherent shortcoming of MSS, although a three-response format including also an “undecided” response option may solve the problem under restrictive assumptions whose validity cannot be tested with MSS data. We also show that a proper two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) task with the three-response format is free of all these problems so that bias and perceptual effects can easily be separated out. The use of a three-response 2AFC format is essential to eliminate a confound (response bias) in studies of perceptual effects and, hence, to eliminate a threat to the internal validity of research in this area.     

Examining the potential for gender bias in the prediction of symptom validity test failure by MMPI-2 symptom validity scale scores

Using a sample of individuals undergoing medico-legal evaluations (690 men, 519 women), the present study extended past research on potential gender biases for scores of the Symptom Validity (FBS) scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 by examining score- and item-level differences between men and women and determining the extent to which FBS scores were able to correctly identify men and women who were divided into credible responders (n = 837) and noncredible responders (n = 372) on the basis of performance on symptom validity tests. Results indicated that women had slightly higher raw FBS scores than men (d = .29), and significant differences between men and women in item endorsement were demonstrated for 14 FBS items. Step-down hierarchical logistic regression procedures indicated predictive bias (χ2Δ = 23.72, p < .001). Follow-up analyses indicated intercept bias (χ2Δ = 23.51, p < .001) but not slope bias (χ2Δ = 0.22, p = .64). However, using the test publisher's recommended FBS cutoff scores (Ben-Porath, Graham, & Tellegen, 2009), classification accuracies were similar for women and men (T > 80, h = -.02; T > 100, h = -.22, respectively). On the basis of these results, we conclude there is no evidence of clinically meaningful bias in predictions of symptom validity test failure made using FBS scores for men and women. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

The effects of prediction,understanding, and control: A test of the stress antidote model

Abstract

A study was undertaken to examine further the effects of perceived work control on employee adjustment. On the basis of the stress antidote model, it was proposed that high levels of prediction, understanding, and control of work-related events would have direct, indirect, and interactive effects on levels of employee adjustment. These hypotheses were tested in a short-term longitudinal study of 137 employees of a large retail organization. The stress antidote measures appeared to be indirectly related to employee adjustment, via their effects on perceptions of work stress. There was weak evidence for the proposal that prediction, understanding, and control would buffer the negative effects of work stress. Additional analyses indicated that the observed effects of prediction, understanding, and control were independent of employees' generalized control beliefs. However, there was no support for the proposal that the effects of the stress antidote measures would be dependent on employees' generalized control beliefs.     

The place of once-weekly treatment in the work of an analytically trained child psychotherapist

In this paper, I explore how we might link ideas about clinical facts to current issues in child psychotherapy research. I consider what our understanding of clinical facts might contribute to our research methods and how our research methods might better represent the clinical facts. The paper introduces a selection of psychoanalytic writers' formulations of the concept and describes some of the debates about the shortcomings of the traditional style of case reporting. The importance of keeping emotional experience central in our research is discussed. I describe a research method that I believe has the potential to capture and describe some of the complicated processes of change in psychotherapy. This is the concept of the ‘turning point’ session. Introducing the paradigm of complexity theory, I briefly explore how we might think about and understand the relationship between processes revealed through detailed analysis of a single session and change over a longer period of therapy.