THE FUTILITY OF UTILITY ANALYSIS REVISITED: WHEN EVEN AN EXPERT FAILS

The effect of utility analysis on managerial decisions regarding the use of a valid selection test was investigated. Experienced managers ( n = 41) were randomly assigned to one of three conditions. The control condition contained written advice to adopt new selection procedures from a hypothetical psychologist that included an explanation of validation procedures. The second condition contained the same written information and advice as the control condition plus written support of that advice from a hypothetical trusted adviser. The third condition contained all the material that was presented in the control condition plus a written explanation of utility analysis, an actual utility analysis showing that large financial benefits would flow from using the proposed procedures, and a video-taped presentation from an expert on utility analysis where the logic underlying utility analysis and its benefits were explained. The expert was then presented live to the audience to address any questions that might have arisen from the utility analysis or the video. An ANOVA revealed that the presentation of a positive utility analysis reduced support for implementing a valid selection procedure, even though the logic and merits of utility analysis as a decision-making tool were described by an internationally recognized authority.     

LO! THE STIMULUS SPEAKS: THE INSIDER'S VIEW ON WHYTE AND LATHAM'S "THE FUTILITY OF UTILITY ANALYSIS"

The Whyte and Latham (1996) study presents results showing that presentation of a positive utility analysis reduced support for implementing a valid selection procedure, even though the merits of utility analysis were described by an "expert." In this paper, the aforementioned expert responds to the Whyte and Latham study and its conclusions. He contends that their experimental study actually tested a persuasional hypothesis, not the informational one put forward by the authors. In otherwords, the effect of the presentation of utility information as the independent variable, and its advocacy by the expert, was perceived by subjects as an attempt to persuade managers to invest in a personnel intervention rather than as a neutral message intended to inform them of the merits of the intervention. Consequently, Whyte and Latham's conclusions about the "futility of utility analysis" will most likely generalize to a situation where personnel psychologists are trying to sell an intervention such as a selection program to a client, but not necessarily to a situation where the psychologist is perceived to use utility analysis in an arms length relationship to assist in making investment decisions. The Whyte and Latham findings represent a real and substantial effect that has important implications for psychologists using utility analysis, but more research is required to establish the boundary conditions around it.     

ASSESSING THE UTILITY OF A DEMAND ASSESSMENT FOR FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS

We evaluated the utility of an assessment for identifying tasks for the functional analysis demand condition with 4 individuals who had been diagnosed with autism. During the demand assessment, a therapist presented a variety of tasks, and observers measured problem behavior and compliance to identify demands associated with low levels of compliance or high levels of problem behavior (low‐probability demands) and demands associated with high levels of compliance or low levels of problem behavior (high‐probability demands). Results showed that clearer functional analysis outcomes were obtained for 3 of the 4 participants when low‐probability rather than high‐probability demands were used.     

FUTILITY AND THE VARIETIES OF MEDICAL JUDGMENT

Pellegrino has argued that end-of-life decisions should be based upon the physician's assessment of the effectiveness of the treatment and the patient's assessment of its benefits and burdens. This would seem to imply that conditions for medical futility could be met either if there were a judgment of ineffectiveness, or if the patient were in a state in which he or she were incapable of a subjective judgment of the benefits and burdens of the treatment. I argue that a theory of futility according to Pellegrino would deny that latter but would permit some cases of the former. I call this the “circumspect” view. I show that Pellegrino would adopt the circumspect view because he would see the medical futility debate in the context of a system of medical ethics based firmly upon a philosophy of medicine. The circumspect view is challenged by those who would deny that one can distinguish objective from subjective medical judgments. I defend the circumspect view on the basis of a previously neglected aspect of the philosophy of medicine -- an examination of varieties of medical judgment. I then offer some practical applications of this theory in clinical practice.     

THE EFFECTS OF VARIABILITY AND RISK IN SELECTION UTILITY ANALYSIS: AN EMPIRICAL COMPARISON

To date, utility analysis research has derived point estimates of the expected utility value for human resource management programs or interventions. Utility estimates are usually quite large, but they fail to reflect the size and shape of the utility distribution. The present study investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers in a medium-sized computer manufacturing organization. Utility calculations incorporated financial/economic factors as well as employee flows over time. The distributions for each utility parameter were empirically estimated, and these distribution estimates were combined through a Monte Carlo analysis to yield a distribution of total utility values. Monte Carlo results were compared to three other risk assessment approaches: (1) sensitivity analysis, (2) break-even analysis, and (3) algebraic derivation of the distribution. Results suggest that the distribution information provided by the Monte Carlo analysis more completely described the variability and riskiness associated with the expected utility value. Future research suggested by these findings is discussed.     

EXPANDING THE CONTEXT OF UTILITY: THE STRATEGIC IMPACT OF PERSONNEL SELECTION

Others have demonstrated that traditional applications of the Brogden-Cronbach-Gleser (BCG) selection utility formula are deficient in responding to the financial context of managerial decisions (Boudreau, 1983a, 1983b; Cronshaw & Alexander, 1985, 1991). We demonstrate that traditional estimates of selection utility also fail to reflect the strategic context faced by managerial decision makers. We modify the traditional BCG model to yield an estimate of total utility derived from human resources ( U_total ) that can be directly compared to firms' strategic need at a particular point in time ( U^target )-Further, we demonstrate that, while strategic need is rarely constant over time, the capacity of a selection system to meet that need is also likely to change as r_xy and SD_y change over time. Re-examination of what is important to strategic human resource decision makers (selection utility vs. total utility and strategic need) and changing selection system contributions over time yields a more realistic view of how firms benefit from personnel selection.     

THE USE AND UTILITY OF THE MONOTONE CRITERION IN MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING

The monotone criterion as a multidimensional scaling technique is theoret- ically and empirically evaluated using the algorithms of Kruskal (MDSCAL) and Guttman-Lingoes (SSA-1). Geometric configurations are used to test the recovery capabaty and other aspects of MDSCAL and SSA-1. In addition to theoretical shortcomings, the monotone criterion permits results which do not correspond to the shape of the input data. Because of its deficiencies, alterna- tive goodness-of-fit criteria are suggested in preference to the monotone criterion.     

SINGLE-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY ANALYSIS MAY BE FUTILE,BUT THIS CAN’T BE THE END OF THE STORY: CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS AS AN ALTERNATIVE

Research on providing single-attribute utility analysis has shown moderate or even negative effects on the acceptance of selection and training tests by human resource decision makers. In this study, we contrasted the perceived utility of single-attribute utility analysis with causal chain analysis as an alternative way of conducting utility analysis. Causal chain analysis focuses on measuring the linkages between HRM interventions and organizational outcomes mediated by employee attitudes and customer perceptions. We compared 144 managers' reactions to both methods of utility analysis concerning the variables understandability, information quality, perceived usefulness, user information satisfaction, and intention to use. Causal chain analysis yielded higher results than single-attribute analysis for these variables, and a compound measure of these constructs supported this finding. This indicates that causal chain analysis is a valuable alternative method of communicating the utility of HRM interventions.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT AND ECONOMIC UTILITY OF CORPORATE-WIDE TRAINING

This study describes a 4 year effort to investigate the effect and utility of managerial and sales/technical training. The effort relied upon quasi-experimental designs to investigate the effect of training programs, meta-analysis to summarize the effect of different types of training, and utility analysis to estimate the economic impact of training. The utilized multi-attribute utility analysis model, based on Raju, Burke, and Normand's 1990 (RBN) model, was modified and approved by the senior management of a Fortune 500 pharmaceutical company; it included a measure of criterion deficiency and corrected for differences due to alternative methods of calculating effect sizes (e.g., repeated measures ANOVA vs. ANCOVA). Results of 18 training program evaluations (range of N = 10 to 216), which were conducted in one company on the basis of supervisor, subordinate, or peer ratings, are reported. Great variation existed between the effectiveness of the programs (range of d = -.09 to 1.11), and managerial training was found to have less effect (d = .31) and utility (mean ROI = 45%) than sales/technical training (d = .64, mean ROI = 418%). In addition, the use of a 2-point performance scale in application of the RBN utility model as well as the role of management pre-approval of utility analysis are investigated.     

THE UTILITY OF CURRICULUM-BASED MEASUREMENT FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF METHYLPHENIDATE ON ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE

Two case studies were conducted to investigate the utility of curriculum-based measurement of math and reading for evaluating the effects of methylphenidate on the academic performance of 2 students diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Following baseline measurement, double-blind placebo-controlled procedures were employed to evaluate each student's response to three levels (5 mg, 10 mg, and 15 mg) of the medication. Results of the first study suggest that the curriculum-based measures were sensitive indicators of the student's response to medication. This finding was replicated in the second study. In the second study, when the student's follow-up dose of medication was based on trial-phase data, follow-up performance was improved compared to baseline performance. These case studies suggest that further research is warranted on the utility of curriculum-based measurements for monitoring and evaluating stimulant medication interventions with children with this disorder.     

INVESTIGATING THE UTILITY OF THE FILM WAR ZONE IN THE PREVENTION OF STREET HARASSMENT

Street harassment, the act of sexual harassment by strangers in public, is a common experience shared by many women. This paper reports the first experimental evaluation of the impact of a popular documentary-style film,  War Zone , on men's attitudes toward street harassment and empathy for women who experience it. The sample was an ethnically diverse group of undergraduate men attending an urban university ( N  = 98). Given the film's primary focus on women's perspectives and the relation of street harassment to rape, we predicted the film would decrease acceptance of street harassment and increase empathy toward women who experience street harassment. We did not find support for these main effects. Hostility toward women, however, was negatively related to cognitive empathy and feelings of distress following the film, and hostility toward women moderated the effect of film condition on distress. Peer acceptance predicted greater self-acceptance of street harassment. Implications for future street harassment research and prevention strategies are discussed.     

THE INFLUENCE OF LABOR MARKETS ON HUMAN RESOURCES UTILITY ESTIMATES

Recent work in industrial and personnel psychology has extended earlier efforts to financially evaluate the utility of organizational human resources policies. Utility analysis now includes a variety of refinements that more accurately measure the costs and benefits of human resources programs, both in the present and in the future. While this work substantially improves the firm-level evaluation of many personnel policies, conventional utility models have ignored the effects of the external labor market on estimated utilities. Specifically there appears to be an implicit assumption that utilities are invariant across changing labor market conditions and that employees (both current and prospective), as well as other employers, will be unresponsive to these labor market dynamics. This paper examines the effect of relaxing these implicit assumptions on the magnitude of expected utilities. We conclude that, in general, the omission of these considerations overstates the likely utility of the programs being evaluated.     

两难情景下任务结构与价值取向的效用特征转换

实验采用两难对策任务的情景模拟 ,研究决策者在群体决策情景当中的效用特征转换。 6 2名被试参加了实验。研究发现 ,任务结构与个体价值取向都是影响决策效用特征转换的重要因素 ,并且这种效用特征的转换有稳定关系存在 ,以此为基础来设计组织计算机团队工作具有重要意义     

EXAMINING THE THEORY AND CLINICAL UTILITY OF WRITING ABOUT EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCES

Abstract— Pennebaker's (this issue) intervention for writing about emotional experiences shows promise as a module for inclusion in therapeutic packages. There are conceptual, methodological ant practical issues to be considered, however. These issues are discussed, and parallels are drawn from the literatures on the moodregulatory function of dreams and on the effects of social support on health. Although there is evidence that anything about emotional experiences has beneficial effects on health, it is premature to recommend writing intervention as a treatment component for specific problems. What is needed at this point is systematic research to evaluate to clinical utility.     

MAU程序和自由讨论的群体决策质量比较

采用实验室研究方法,比较了在信启、不分享条件下多特征效用模型(MAU)决策程序和自由讨论对群体决策质量的影响,并对影响MAU决策质量的主要因素进行了初步探讨。结果发现：(1)MAU程序可以较好地克服群体动力学方面的一些消极影响,表现出挖掘信息(尤其是非分享信息)的充分性。但MAU程序在被试的态度和社会交互作用等心理效标上并未显示出优势;(2)在MAU条件下,群体规模的增大对分享和非分享信息的讨论量无显著影响。而任务难度效应要和群体规模一起才能起到作用。     

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS IN ESTIMATING THE UTILITY OF HUMAN RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMS

Three economic concepts (variable costs, taxes, and discounting) are applied and incorporated into the previous utility formulas proposed by Brogden (1946, 1949), Cronbach and Gleser (1965), and Schmidt, et al. (1979, 1982). The resulting utility model indicates that the previous formulas are deficient and can produce upwardly biased utility estimates. Empirical examples based on published research (e.g., Schmidt, et al., 1982) are presented indicating the substantial magnitude of the bias given realistic levels of variable costs, taxes, and discount rates. The present utility model is used to adjust for such bias and is shown to provide a more complete and precise utility definition. Implications for future research are discussed.     

不确定性风险选择的抱负水平—相对效用整合理论

本文认为不确定性风险决策备择方案的选择标准既不是规范效用理论所主张的效用最大化,也不只是研究者们基于西蒙有限理性决策理论而提出的抱负水平,而是存在于决策不同阶段上的、由启发式策略控制着的这两种标准的整合,我们称之为抱负水平－相对效用整合标准。为此,我们在研究抱负水平结构的基础上提出了负险选择的抱负水平－相对效用整合理论及其支持性研究证据,并就有关问题进行了讨论与思考。指出抱负水平－相对效用整合是风     

A COMPARISON OF REINFORCER ASSESSMENT METHODS: THE UTILITY OF VERBAL AND PICTORIAL CHOICE PROCEDURES

We compared three methods of stimulus preference assessment for verbal children and specifically evaluated the utility of a verbal choice procedure for assessing relative reinforcer value. Using a token system, relative preference for five categories of reinforcers, representing 15 different stimuli, was assessed by three methods: a reinforcer survey, a verbal stimulus-choice questionnaire, and a pictorial stimulus-choice procedure. Results showed that the verbal and pictorial stimulus-choice assessments accurately identified high- and low-preference categories for 3 of 4 participants. Survey results alone often rated multiple categories as high preference, were less likely to identify low-preference categories, and were less likely to correspond with the results of a reinforcer assessment.     

THE UTILITY OF ASSESSING MUSICAL PREFERENCE BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION OF NONCONTINGENT MUSIC TO REDUCE VOCAL STEREOTYPY

We conducted a modified paired‐choice preference assessment and used a multielement design to examine the effects of noncontingent access to high‐ and low‐preference music on vocal stereotypy exhibited by children with autism. For 3 of the 4 participants, high‐preference music (a) produced lower levels of vocal stereotypy than low‐preference music and (b) reduced vocal stereotypy when compared to a no‐interaction condition. Results underscore the potential importance of assessing musical preference prior to using noncontingent music to reduce vocal stereotypy.