Latent Class Models for Diary Method Data: Parameter Estimation by Local Computations

The increasing use of diary methods calls for the development of appropriate statistical methods. For the resulting panel data, latent Markov models can be used to model both individual differences and temporal dynamics. The computational burden associated with these models can be overcome by exploiting the conditional independence relations implied by the model. This is done by associating a probabilistic model with a directed acyclic graph, and applying transformations to the graph. The structure of the transformed graph provides a factorization of the joint probability function of the manifest and latent variables, which is the basis of a modified and more efficient E-step of the EM algorithm. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by estimating a latent Markov model involving a large number of measurement occasions and, subsequently, a hierarchical extension of the latent Markov model that allows for transitions at different levels. Furthermore, logistic regression techniques are used to incorporate restrictions on the conditional probabilities and to account for the effect of covariates. Throughout, models are illustrated with an experience sampling methodology study on the course of emotions among anorectic patients. Frank Rijmen was partly supported by the Fund for Scientific Research Flanders (FWO).     

A Bayesian Semiparametric Latent Variable Model for Mixed Responses

In this paper we introduce a latent variable model (LVM) for mixed ordinal and continuous responses, where covariate effects on the continuous latent variables are modelled through a flexible semiparametric Gaussian regression model. We extend existing LVMs with the usual linear covariate effects by including nonparametric components for nonlinear effects of continuous covariates and interactions with other covariates as well as spatial effects. Full Bayesian modelling is based on penalized spline and Markov random field priors and is performed by computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We apply our approach to a German social science survey which motivated our methodological development. We thank the editor and the referees for their constructive and helpful comments, leading to substantial improvements of a first version, and Sven Steinert for computational assistance. Partial financial support from the SFB 386 “Statistical Analysis of Discrete Structures” is also acknowledged.     

Modeling and Testing Differential Item Functioning in Unidimensional Binary Item Response Models with a Single Continuous Covariate: A Functional Data Analysis Approach

Differential item functioning (DIF), referring to between-group variation in item characteristics above and beyond the group-level disparity in the latent variable of interest, has long been regarded as an important item-level diagnostic. The presence of DIF impairs the fit of the single-group item response model being used, and calls for either model modification or item deletion in practice, depending on the mode of analysis. Methods for testing DIF with continuous covariates, rather than categorical grouping variables, have been developed; however, they are restrictive in parametric forms, and thus are not sufficiently flexible to describe complex interaction among latent variables and covariates. In the current study, we formulate the probability of endorsing each test item as a general bivariate function of a unidimensional latent trait and a single covariate, which is then approximated by a two-dimensional smoothing spline. The accuracy and precision of the proposed procedure is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations. If anchor items are available, we proposed an extended model that simultaneously estimates item characteristic functions (ICFs) for anchor items, ICFs conditional on the covariate for non-anchor items, and the latent variable density conditional on the covariate—all using regression splines. A permutation DIF test is developed, and its performance is compared to the conventional parametric approach in a simulation study. We also illustrate the proposed semiparametric DIF testing procedure with an empirical example.     

Multidimensional Latent Markov Models in a Developmental Study of Inhibitory Control and Attentional Flexibility in Early Childhood

We demonstrate the use of a multidimensional extension of the latent Markov model to analyse data from studies with repeated binary responses in developmental psychology. In particular, we consider an experiment based on a battery of tests which was administered to pre-school children, at three time periods, in order to measure their inhibitory control (IC) and attentional flexibility (AF) abilities. Our model represents these abilities by two latent traits which are associated to each state of a latent Markov chain. The conditional distribution of the test outcomes given the latent process depends on these abilities through a multidimensional one-parameter or two-parameter logistic parameterisation. We outline an EM algorithm for likelihood inference on the model parameters; we also focus on likelihood ratio testing of hypotheses on the dimensionality of the model and on the transition matrices of the latent process. Through the approach based on the proposed model, we find evidence that supports that IC and AF can be conceptualised as distinct constructs. Furthermore, we outline developmental aspects of participants’ performance on these abilities based on inspection of the estimated transition matrices.     

Common Misconceptions Concerning The Analysis Of Covariance

Four misconceptions about the requirements for proper use of analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) are examined by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Conclusions are that ANCOVA does not require covariates to be measured without error, that ANCOVA can be used effectively to adjust for initial group differences that result from nonrandom assignment which is dependent on observed covariate scores, that ANCOVA does not provide unbiased estimates of true treatment effects where initial group differences are due to nonrandom assignment which is dependent on the true latent covariable if the covariate contains measurement error, and that ANCOVA requires no assumption concerning the equality of within-groups and between-groups regression. Where treatments actually influence covariate scores, the hypothesis tested by ANCOVA concerns a weighted combination of effects on covariate and dependent variables.     

A Latent Transition Model With Logistic Regression

Latent transition models increasingly include covariates that predict prevalence of latent classes at a given time or transition rates among classes over time. In many situations, the covariate of interest may be latent. This paper describes an approach for handling both manifest and latent covariates in a latent transition model. A Bayesian approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is employed in order to achieve more robust estimates. A case example illustrating the model is provided using data on academic beliefs and achievement in a low-income sample of adolescents in the United States. This research was partially supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse Grant 1-R03-DA021639. This research was partially supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse Grant 1-P50-DA10075, The Methodology Center, The Pennsylvania State University. This research was partially supported by the National Institute of Mental Health funds as part of the Studying Diverse Lives research support program at the Henry A. Murray Research Archive, Institute for Quantitative Science, Harvard University.     

The stability of disruptive childhood behaviors

The stability of child conduct and oppositional defiant behaviors during the period from 7 to 15 years was studied in a birth cohort of New Zealand children. These data were analyzed using two methods. In the first method the observed state to state changes in childhood behavioral tendencies were analyzed using empirical transition matrices. These results suggested that children classified as cases showed high rates of symptom remission, with approximately 50% of cases being classified as noncases 2 years later. In the second approach the data were analyzed using a latent Markov model which took account of errors of measurement in the classification of children. This analysis suggested the presence of strong continuities in childhood problem behaviors, with only 14% of children showing remission of behavioral problems within a 2-year period. The differences in the estimates yielded by the empirical transition matrices and the latent analyses were explained by the fact that there were relatively high probabilities that children who were cases were misclassified as a result of measurement errors.This research was funded by grants from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the National Child Health Research Foundation, and the Canterbury Medical Research Foundation.     

An overview of Markov chain methods for the study of stage-sequential developmental processes

This article presents an overview of quantitative methodologies for the study of stage-sequential development based on extensions of Markov chain modeling. Four methods are presented that exemplify the flexibility of this approach: the manifest Markov model, the latent Markov model, latent transition analysis, and the mixture latent Markov model. A special case of the mixture latent Markov model, the so-called mover-stayer model, is used in this study. Unconditional and conditional models are estimated for the manifest Markov model and the latent Markov model, where the conditional models include a measure of poverty status. Issues of model specification, estimation, and testing using the Mplus software environment are briefly discussed, and the Mplus input syntax is provided. The author applies these 4 methods to a single example of stage-sequential development in reading competency in the early school years, using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten Cohort.     

Studying Multivariate Change Using Multilevel Models and Latent Curve Models

In longitudinal research investigators often measure multiple variables at multiple points in time and are interested in investigating individual differences in patterns of change on those variables. In the vast majority of applications, researchers focus on studying change in one variable at a time. In this article we consider methods for studying relations1.1ips between patterns of change on different variables. We show how the multilevel modeling framework, which is often used to study univariate change, can be extended to the multivariate case to yield estimates of covariances of parameters representing aspects of change on different variables. We illustrate this approach using data from a study of physiological response to marital conflict in older married couples, showing a substantial correlation between rate of linear change on different stress-related hormones during conflict. We also consider how similar issues can be studied using extensions of latent curve models to the multivariate case, and we show how such models are related to multivariate multilevel models.     

Enter the matrix: How to analyze the structure of behavior

Several methods are available for analyzing different aspects of behavioral transition matrices, but a comprehensive framework for their use is lacking. We analyzed parasitoid foraging behavior in environments with different plant species compositions. The resulting complex data sets were analyzed using the following stepwise procedure. We detected abrupt changes in the event log files of parasitoids, using a maximum likelihood method. This served as a criterion for splitting the event log files into two parts. For both parts, Mantel’s test was used to detect differences between first-order transition matrices, whereas an iterative proportional fitting method was used to find behavioral flows that deviated from random transitions. In addition, hidden repetitive sequences were detected in the transition matrices on the basis of their relative timing, using Theme. We discuss the results for the example from a biological context and the comprehensive use of the different methods. We stress the importance of such a combined stepwise analysis for detecting differences in some parts of event log files.     

TALK AND SILENCE SEQUENCES IN INFORMAL CONVERSATIONS II

Three models describing the structure of talk and silence sequences within and across conversations presented in a previous report (Cappella, 1979) are tested. The Markov model, describing talk and silence sequences within a conversation, is found to be a valid representation on a dyad-by-dyad basis. The Independent Decision (ID) model shows some predictive validity between conversations, although its “fit” within the conversation is less than the Markov model. The Incremental model in relaxing the consistency-across-conversation assumption of the ID model finds differences due to switching of partners in the probability of breaking or continuing mutual silences and in the probability of continuing to hold the floor. The implication for deriving dyadic interaction patterns from individual interaction styles are explored.     

Empirical Bayes Approaches to Multivariate Fuzzy Partitions

In describing high dimensional discrete response data, mathematical and statistical issues arise that require multivariate procedures that are not based on normal distributions, that is, the mathematical representation of high dimensional discrete response data (Event Spaces) requires a representation in lower dimensional parameter spaces consistent with the discrete properties of the Event Space. Mapping discrete responses to latent discrete classes has the limitation of not representing real individual variation within the categories. The use of a fuzzy partition model is proposed which describes individuals in terms of partial membership in multiple latent categories which represents bounded discrete event spaces with significant third and higher order moments. We discuss statistical issues arising in identifying both the deterministic and the stochastic variation of data when applications involve systematic variation due to observed and unobserved variables. We present an empirical Bayes-maximum likelihood estimation scheme for the application of the fuzzy partition models.     

Fitting and Testing Conditional Multinormal Partial Credit Models

A multinormal partial credit model for factor analysis of polytomously scored items with ordered response categories is derived using an extension of the Dutch Identity (Holland in Psychometrika 55:5?C18, 1990). In the model, latent variables are assumed to have a multivariate normal distribution conditional on unweighted sums of item scores, which are sufficient statistics. Attention is paid to maximum likelihood estimation of item parameters, multivariate moments of latent variables, and person parameters. It is shown that the maximum likelihood estimates can be found without the use of numerical integration techniques. More general models are discussed which can be used for testing the model, and it is shown how models with different numbers of latent variables can be tested against each other. In addition, multi-group extensions are proposed, which can be used for testing both measurement invariance and latent population differences. Models and procedures discussed are demonstrated in an empirical data example.     

Assessing the Within‐Trial Treatment Integrity of Discrete‐Trial Teaching Programs Using Sequential Analysis

Discrete‐trial teaching is a strategy frequently used to teach functional skills to individuals with developmental and intellectual disabilities. Research has shown that the within‐trial components of the procedure should be administered with ≥90% treatment integrity to facilitate optimal learning. Usually within‐trial treatment integrity is measured using whole‐session methods such as percentage of trials correctly administered. This study demonstrated one‐step Markov transition matrices as a method of assessing within‐trial treatment integrity. All components of discrete trials were coded and time‐stamped from video recordings of therapist–learner dyads in their typical setting (home or school). Several types of within‐trial treatment integrity errors were identified using the Markov transition matrices, error sequences that could not be identified using a percentage correct analysis. Better identification of errors has the potential both to enhance treatment integrity and to gain efficiency by targeted retraining of therapists. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bayesian approach to nonlinear latent variable models using the Gibbs sampler and the metropolis-hastings algorithm

Nonlinear latent variable models are specified that include quadratic forms and interactions of latent regressor variables as special cases. To estimate the parameters, the models are put in a Bayesian framework with conjugate priors for the parameters. The posterior distributions of the parameters and the latent variables are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The proposed estimation methods are illustrated by two simulation studies and by the estimation of a non-linear model for the dependence of performance on task complexity and goal specificity using empirical data.     

The theoretical status of latent variables

This article examines the theoretical status of latent variables as used in modern test theory models. First, it is argued that a consistent interpretation of such models requires a realist ontology for latent variables. Second, the relation between latent variables and their indicators is discussed. It is maintained that this relation can be interpreted as a causal one but that in measurement models for interindividual differences the relation does not apply to the level of the individual person. To substantiate intraindividual causal conclusions, one must explicitly represent individual level processes in the measurement model. Several research strategies that may be useful in this respect are discussed, and a typology of constructs is proposed on the basis of this analysis. The need to link individual processes to latent variable models for interindividual differences is emphasized.     

,SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF LATENT SCORES

A number of multivariate psychometric models hypothesize that a data matrix of observed, scores equals the sum of two mutually orthogonal latent matrices. Relationships among latent and observed scores are investigated psychometrically using the concept of the general inverse. A number of previously unrecognized characteristics of the latent scores are thus brought to light.     

A general class of latent variable models for ordinal manifest variables with covariate effects on the manifest and latent variables

Previous work on a general class of multidimensional latent variable models for analysing ordinal manifest variables is extended here to allow for direct covariate effects on the manifest ordinal variables and covariate effects on the latent variables. A full maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate all the model parameters simultaneously. Goodness‐of‐fit statistics and standard errors are discussed. Two examples from the 1996 British Social Attitudes Survey are used to illustrate the methodology.     

A proposal for handling missing data

A method for dealing with the problem of missing observations in multivariate data is developed and evaluated. The method uses a transformation of the principal components of the data to estimate missing entries. The properties of this method and four alternative methods are investigated by means of a Monte Carlo study of 42 computer-generated data matrices. The methods are compared with respect to their ability to predict correlation matrices as well as missing entries. The results indicate that whenever there exists modest intercorrelations among the variables (i.e., average off diagonal correlation above .2) the proposed method is at least as good as the best alternative (a regression method) while being considerably faster and simpler computationally. Models for determining the best alternative based upon easily calculated characteristics of the matrix are given. The generality of these models is demonstrated using the previously published results of Timm.     

Multilevel Mixture Factor Models

Factor analysis is a statistical method for describing the associations among sets of observed variables in terms of a small number of underlying continuous latent variables. Various authors have proposed multilevel extensions of the factor model for the analysis of data sets with a hierarchical structure. These Multilevel Factor Models (MFMs) have in common that—as in multilevel regression analysis—variation at the higher level is modeled using continuous random effects. In this article, we present an alternative multilevel extension of factor analysis which we call the Multilevel Mixture Factor Model (MMFM). It is based on the assumption that higher level units belong to latent classes that differ in terms of the parameters of the factor model specified for the lower level units. We demonstrate the added value of MMFM compared with MFM, both from a theoretical and applied perspective, and we illustrate the complementarity of the two approaches with an empirical application on students' satisfaction with the University of Florence. The multilevel aspect of this application is that students are nested within study programs, which makes it possible to cluster these programs based on their differences in students' satisfaction.