Effects of information relevance on decision making in complex environments

Previous research based on predictions of complexity theory has often varied information load and measured characteristics of group decision making. A reinterpretation of related data on success and failure effects suggests that the obtained load effects may be confounded by simultaneous variation of information load and information relevance. To begin studying the separate effects of the two variables, information load was held constant at the previously determined optimal level and information relevance was varied as a proportion of load. It was found that integrated decision making (a complex decision response) was modified by changes in information relevance; but that respondent decision making and information search (simple decision responses) did not change. The results were tentatively interpreted to suggest that complex decision making varies with relevance, while simple decision making varies with information load. It was suggested that complexity theory might be correspondingly modified.     

Early evidence affects later decisions: Why evidence accumulation is required to explain response time data

Models of decision making differ in how they treat early evidence as it recedes in time. Standard models, such as the drift diffusion model, assume that evidence is gradually accumulated until it reaches a boundary and a decision is initiated. One recent model, the urgency gating model, has proposed that decision making does not require the accumulation of evidence at all. Instead, accumulation could be replaced by a simple urgency factor that scales with time. To distinguish between these fundamentally different accounts of decision making, we performed an experiment in which we manipulated the presence, duration, and valence of early evidence. We simulated the associated response time and error rate predictions from the drift diffusion model and the urgency gating model, fitting the models to the empirical data. The drift diffusion model predicted that variations in the evidence presented early in the trial would affect decisions later in that same trial. The urgency gating model predicted that none of these variations would have any effect. The behavioral data showed clear effects of early evidence on the subsequent decisions, in a manner consistent with the drift diffusion model. Our results cannot be explained by the urgency gating model, and they provide support for an evidence accumulation account of perceptual decision making.     

Inhibitory spillover: increased urination urgency facilitates impulse control in unrelated domains

Visceral states are known to reduce the ability to exert self-control. In the current research, we investigated how self-control is affected by a visceral factor associated with inhibition rather than with approach: bladder control. We designed four studies to test the hypothesis that inhibitory signals are not domain-specific but can spill over to unrelated domains, resulting in increased impulse control in the behavioral domain. In Study 1, participants' urination urgency correlated with performance on color-naming but not word-meaning trials of a Stroop task. In Studies 2 and 3, we found that higher levels of bladder pressure resulted in an increased ability to resist impulsive choices in monetary decision making. We found that inhibitory spillover effects are moderated by sensitivity of the Behavioral Inhibition System (Study 3) and can be induced by exogenous cues (Study 4). Implications for inhibition and impulse-control theories are discussed.     

Effects of information accuracy and volume on decision making

Recent advances in information technology have resulted in increasingly complex work environments. Much of the complexity is due to a deluge of information available across networks (Gleick, 2011) and unknown reliability, which introduces additional uncertainty (Platt & Huettel, 2008). Understanding the performance characteristics of human information processing for optimal decision making under such conditions of data abundance and uncertainty is critical in complex networked information environments, such as military operations. One focus of the United States military is providing troops with the richness of information formally reserved for higher echelons (Bawden & Robinson, 2009). However, this effort risks cognitive overload, where too much information can result in impaired performance. The present study examined human decision making under varying levels of cognitive load and source reliability. Participants determined the reliability of two information sources and decided how to use them to minimize cognitive load and improve performance in a visual search task. Unbeknownst to participants, one source provided highly accurate information and one provided moderately accurate information. Results showed that participants had more trust in the more accurate than the less accurate source, and decision making accuracy decreased as cognitive load increased. When cognitive load was highest, participants were more accurate on trials with the more accurate source. Thus, the more accurate source facilitated better performance, whether through better intel or through participants offloading some of the cognitive load to the reliable source.     

群体决策中的知识构建过程

群体决策作为管理活动的一个重要内容一直是许多学科研究的重点。在决策过程中,决策者如何利用、整合信息,从而修改其原有的认知模式,重新构建后续加工模式,即决策者在决策过程中如何进行知识构建越来越受到研究者的关注。该文从影响知识构建的因素、决策构建过程及决策绩效等方面考察了以往与群体决策中知识构建过程相关的研究,并总结了目前知识构建研究中使用的测量方法和指标     

Group decision making in the planning team process: Myth or reality?

Based upon theories from organizational psychology, this study assessed the relationships among school staff role, participation, and satisfaction during planning Team meetings which decide special education placements and programming. A strong positive relationship was found between staff role and participation. Regular education teachers were lowest in participation and satisfaction whereas school psychologists were ranked the highest on both variables. Other staff roles did not necessarily show a one-to-one relationship between participation and satisfaction levels, yet within roles, the level of satisfaction increased with higher levels of participation. These findings were discussed in the context of interdisciplinary decision making and implementation of the placement team decision.     

Antisocial Behavior and the Continuing "Tragedy of the Commons"

The influence of individuals' antisocial tendencies and risk perceptions on a simulated managerial decision are examined in the study. Subjects accepting and rejecting a hypothetical scenario were found to be significantly different in terms of aggression, lack of empathy, and degree of individualism. Situational influences were not significantly related to subjects' decision. Limitations and future research are discussed.     

Decision making under conflict: Decision time as a measure of conflict strength

Conflict and choice are closely related in that choice produces conflict and conflict is resolved by making a choice. Although conflict was invoked in psychological approaches to decision making early on (Lewin, 1931/1964), no generally accepted measure of conflict strength has been established (Tversky & Shafir, 1992). The present study introduces a model (multiattribute decision field theory) that predicts a decision time pattern depending on the conflict situation. In a risky decision-making experiment with multiattribute choice alternatives, decision time is investigated as a possible measure of conflict strength. It is shown that the model can be fitted to a complex choice pattern.     

Risky Decision Making in Substance Dependent Adolescents with a Disruptive Behavior Disorder

Of all psychiatric disorders, the disruptive behavior disorders (DBDs) are the most likely to predispose to substance dependence (SD). One possible underlying mechanism for this increased vulnerability is risky decision making. The aim of this study was to examine decision making in DBD adolescents with and without SD. Twenty-five DBD adolescents (19 males) with SD (DBD+SD), 28 DBD adolescents (23 males) without SD (DBD-SD) and 99 healthy controls (72 males) were included in the study. DBD adolescents with co-morbid attention deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) were excluded. Risky decision making was investigated by assessing the number of disadvantageous choices in the Iowa gambling task. DBD+SD made significantly more risky choices than healthy controls and DBD-SD. Healthy controls and DBD-SD did not differ on risky decision making. These results suggest that risky decision making is a vulnerability factor for the development of SD in a subgroup of adolescents with DBD without ADHD.     

How Do You Assess a Manager’s Decision-Making Abilities? The Use of Situational Inventories

Decision-making capabilities are absolutely crucial to a manager. Unfortunately, existing methods of assessing managers in this area for selection and development purposes (in-tray exercises, situational interviews, ability tests, etc.) leave a lot to be desired. This article focuses on an alternative for assessing managerial decision making – the situational inventory – and presents research findings and information on practical applications. Detailed findings are also presented for ‘Scenarios’, the UK’s first published situational measure of managerial judgement. Situational inventories work by presenting participants with realistic but difficult real-life management scenarios. Each scenario is accompanied by a number of possible responses which participants rate for effectiveness in dealing with the scenario. Participants’ ratings are then scored against a set of ideal answers, producing an assessment of current decision-making ability. Decision-making ability can be developed in individuals, making feedback invaluable to participants. Evidence that has been accumulating in the United States and the UK for at least 15 years is presented to support the general situational inventory approach. Additionally, specific evidence is presented for ‘Scenarios’. It was found to correlate significantly with a number of managerial performance and responsibility indicators while appearing to be largely separate from existing psychometric (ability and personality) tests.     

The transience of constructed preferences

A large body of research suggests that preferences are constructed rather than merely accessed in the course of making decisions. The current research examines the stability of constructed preferences over time. Preferences for various factors relevant to a job choice were measured prior to presentation of the job‐choice task, at the point of decision, and again following a delay. It was found that relative to baseline pre‐decision levels, preferences shifted to provide stronger support for the emerging decision. Preference changes proved to be transient, receding to baseline after 1 week (Experiment 1), and even within 15 minutes (Experiment 2). These findings, which can be interpreted in terms of decision‐making by constraint satisfaction, suggest that preferences are constructed to serve the decision at hand, without constraining the decision maker in future decisions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“The Smarts That Counts?”: Psychologists' Decision-Making in Personnel Selection

An exploratory approach was taken to examine personnel psychologists' use of sources of information when making a decision regarding candidates' fit to managerial positions. The main focus was on the process, based on actual information used to make real-life decisions about real-life candidates. Different types of information, available to the psychologists were used to predict their actual final decision regarding a sample of 434 managerial candidates. Results suggest a preference to indices of cognitive skills in making decisions about candidates. It seems that even when other non-cognitive indices were used, they were tainted by the cognitive indices, suggesting a halo effect. Implications for practice and further research are discussed.     

Seeing into the Future: Future Time Orientation as a Moderator of Temporal Distance Effects on Educators' Decisions

Research suggests that the temporal distance from decision outcomes leads to divergent decisions for the near and the distal future. As such, high‐level idealistic concerns and values dominate decisions for the distant future, whereas low‐level pragmatic concerns play a greater role in decisions for the near future. We examined how individual differences in future time orientation are related to decisions vis‐à‐vis the near versus the distal future. The results of three studies, with participants with varying levels of expertise—students (Studies 2 and 3), teachers (Study 1), and school principals (Study 2)—show that principals tend to be overall more idealistic in their choices. Yet discrepancies between decisions for the near versus the distal future exist among all three levels of expertise. However, this dominance of idealistic over pragmatic concerns for more distant future decisions effect was smaller the higher the future time orientation was (whether measured or manipulated). Implications for educational and managerial decision making and training are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Age-related changes in decision making: comparing informed and noninformed situations

Advantageous decision making progressively develops into early adulthood, most specifically in complex and motivationally salient decision situations in which direct feedback on gains and losses is provided (Figner & Weber, 2011). However, the factors that underlie this developmental improvement in decision making are still not well understood. The current study therefore investigates 2 potential factors, long-term memory and working memory, by assigning a large developmental sample (7-29 years of age) to a condition with either high or low demands on long-term and working memory. The first condition featured an age-adapted version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994; i.e., a noninformed situation), whereas the second condition provided an external store where explicit information on gains, losses, and probabilities per choice option was presented (i.e., an informed situation). Consistent with previous developmental IGT studies, children up to age 12 did not learn to prefer advantageous options in the noninformed condition. In contrast, all age groups learned to prefer the advantageous options in the informed conditions, although a slight developmental increase in advantageous decision making remained. These results indicate that lowering dependence on long-term and working memory improves children's advantageous decision making. The results additionally suggest that other factors, like inhibitory control processes, may play an additional role in the development of advantageous decision making.     

Is short‐term memory involved in decision making? Evidence from a short‐term memory patient

It is reasonable to suggest that working memory (WM; Baddeley & Hitch, 1974 ) is involved in decision making, as decision making is dependent on the ability to remember and update past choices and outcomes. However, contradictory results have been reported in the literature concerning the role of two of its components, namely the central executive and the phonological loop. In order to investigate the role of these components in the decision‐making process, we tested a patient with intact central executive but impaired phonological loop on a laboratory decision‐making task involving hypothetical gambles (gambling task, GT). When tested in a no‐load condition (simple keypress task), her performance was not significantly different from that of matched controls. We also verified whether her performance would be affected differently by memory‐load when compared with control subjects. The memory task (holding a string of letters in memory) loaded WM without incurring number‐number interference. When the memory‐load was imposed during the GT, both the patient and the controls showed a decline in performance, but the strategy they adopted differed. Possible explanations are discussed. In conclusion, our results suggest that the phonological loop is not directly involved in decision making.     

Electrophysiological correlates reflect the integration of model-based and model-free decision information

In this study, we investigated the interplay of habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision processes by using a two-stage Markov decision task in combination with event-related potentials (ERPs) and computational modeling. To manipulate the demands on model-based decision making, we applied two experimental conditions with different probabilities of transitioning from the first to the second stage of the task. As we expected, when the stage transitions were more predictable, participants showed greater model-based (planning) behavior. Consistent with this result, we found that stimulus-evoked parietal (P300) activity at the second stage of the task increased with the predictability of the state transitions. However, the parietal activity also reflected model-free information about the expected values of the stimuli, indicating that at this stage of the task both types of information are integrated to guide decision making. Outcome-related ERP components only reflected reward-related processes: Specifically, a medial prefrontal ERP component (the feedback-related negativity) was sensitive to negative outcomes, whereas a component that is elicited by reward (the feedback-related positivity) increased as a function of positive prediction errors. Taken together, our data indicate that stimulus-locked parietal activity reflects the integration of model-based and model-free information during decision making, whereas feedback-related medial prefrontal signals primarily reflect reward-related decision processes.     

Limitations to the deficit attenuation hypothesis: Aging and decision making

The deficit attenuation hypothesis is the proposal that age related declines in basic cognitive functions often result in compensatory changes in decision making strategies. However, the patterns of cognitive changes across the adult life span are complex: Many cognitive abilities change across the adult life span while others do not. Some of the cognitive changes will be detrimental to decision making, others will have no impact and still others may actually improve decision making. We illustrate the complexity of the impact of cognition on aging and decision making with examples from working and long-term memory and use these to suggest boundary conditions for the deficit attenuation hypothesis.     

Collective efficacy and vigilant problem solving in group decision making: A non-linear model

This research explores the relationship between collective efficacy and aspects of analytic or vigilant problem solving (Janis, 1989) in the context of group decision making. We hypothesized that vigilant problem solving would be most evident under conditions of relatively moderate collective efficacy, as opposed to either very high or very low collective efficacy. We investigated this hypothesis with groups of business students who participated in a complex business strategy simulation. Results show a significant curvilinear relationship between collective efficacy and vigilant problem solving, and a significant linear relationship between vigilant problem solving and decision outcomes. There is also evidence that vigilant problem solving mediates the relationship between collective efficacy and decision outcomes. Implications for theory, managerial practice, and directions for future research are discussed.     

领导授权赋能行为的维度确认与测量

采用实证研究的方法对中国企业情境下领导授权赋能行为（empowering leadership behavior）的维度及其测量进行了研究。首先采用开放式问卷收集了877条领导授权赋能行为的描述,归类分析表明,中国企业情境下的领导授权赋能行为包括9个类别,并在此基础上形成了封闭式问卷。201份有效问卷的探索性因子分析表明,领导授权赋能行为是一个6因素的结构,具体包括：个人发展支持、过程控制、权力委任、结果和目标控制、参与决策、工作指导。为了进一步验证领导授权赋能行为的结构效度,并考察问卷的信度和预测效度,在2家企业进行了问卷调查,获得了420份有效问卷。验证性因子分析确认了领导授权赋能行为的结构效度,内部一致性分析和回归分析的结果也表明,基于我国企业管理者的领导授权赋能行为量表具有较好的信度和效度,其对下属的心理授权赋能感、工作满意度和情感承诺等工作结果有一定预测作用