Generating Hypotheses After 14 Years of Marital Followup; Or,How Should One Speculate? A Reply to DeKay,Greeno, and Houck*

Gottman and Levenson (2002) for the purpose of post hoc speculation, developed a number of ordinary least squares regressions to model the length of marriage of divorcing couples in a 14-year longitudinal study. We believe that our analyses are appropriate for our purpose. We do not agree with DeKay, Greeno, and Houck (2002) that a duration-model approach would have been more appropriate, and instead argue that the analyses used are more powerful and generate more interesting speculations. When speculating, one makes an important contribution just by being interesting, not necessarily by being right. The purpose of post hoc speculation is to generate discussion, and we are pleased that even at the outset we have accomplished this goal. In this reply to DeKay et al., we argue that the two-process model for earlier versus later divorcing that we propose is both interesting and clinically useful.     

The Early Marital Roots of Conjugal Distress and Divorce

This article summarizes research that challenges conventional wisdom about the early roots of marital distress and divorce. We abstract results from a 13-year study that focused on the extent to which long-term marital satisfaction and stability could be forecast from newlywed and early marital data. We explore the usefulness of three models emergent distress, enduring dynamics, and disillusionment designed to explain why some marriages thrive and others fail. The dominant paradigm, the emergent-distress model, sees newlyweds as homogeneously blissful and posits that distress develops as disagreements and negativity escalate, ultimately leading some couples to divorce. The results we summarize run counter to this model and suggest instead that (a) newlyweds differ considerably in the intensity of both their romance and the negativity of their behavior toward one another and, for those who remain married, these early dynamics persist over time; and (b) for couples who divorce, romance seems to deteriorate differently depending on how long the marriage lasts. Soon after their wedding, "early exiters" seem to lose hope of improving an unpromising relationship; "delayed-action divorcers" begin marriage on a particularly high note, yet quickly show signs of disillusionment. These delayed-action divorcers reluctantly give up on the marriage long after the romance has faded.     

A two-factor model for predicting when a couple will divorce: exploratory analyses using 14-year longitudinal data

This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to "predict" the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called "neutral affective style," and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.     

Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence

Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.     

Autonomic, subjective, and expressive responses to emotional films in older and younger Chinese Americans and European Americans

Previously, the authors found that during idiosyncratic emotional events (relived emotions, discussions about marital conflict), older European American adults demonstrated smaller changes in cardiovascular responding than their younger counterparts (R. W. Levenson, L. L. Carstensen, W. V. Friesen, & P. Ekman, 1991; R. W. Levenson, L. L. Carstensen, & J. M. Gottman, 1994). This study examined whether such differences held when the emotional events were standardized, and whether they extend to another cultural group. Forty-eight old (70-85 years) and 48 young (20-34 years) European Americans and Chinese Americans viewed sad and amusing film clips in the laboratory while their cardiovascular, subjective (online and retrospective), and behavioral responses were measured. Consistent with previous findings, older participants evidenced smaller changes in cardiovascular responding than did younger participants during the film clips. Consistent with earlier reports, old and young participants did not differ in most subjective and behavioral responses to the films. No cultural differences were found.     

Divorce Therapy in Context

Abstract

Partners trying to decide whether to continue or end their marriage rely on the expertise of therapists to help them evaluate their alternatives. Research on what predicts divorce and what consequences divorce has for parents and children is reviewed so therapists are informed in the guidance they give clients. Attention is given to the environmental context of marriage as well as its interior quality. Implications for therapists doing divorce therapy in the context of a “pro-marriage” climate are also discussed.     

The connubial crucible: newlywed years as predictors of marital delight, distress, and divorce

This study showed that couples' newlywed marriages and changes in their union over the first 2 years foreshadow their long-term marital fate after 13 years. Consistent with the enduring dynamics model, differences in the intensity of newlyweds' romance as well as the extent to which they expressed negative feelings toward each other predicted (a) whether or not they were happy 13 years later (among those who stayed married) and (b) how long their marriage lasted prior to separation (for those who divorced). The results provide little support for the idea that emergence of distress (e.g., increasing negativity) early in marriage leads to marital failure but instead show that disillusionment--as reflected in an abatement of love, a decline in overt affection, a lessening of the conviction that one's spouse is responsive, and an increase in ambivalence--distinguishes couples headed for divorce from those who establish a stable marital bond.     

Using Threshold Autoregressive Models to Study Dyadic Interactions

Considering a dyad as a dynamic system whose current state depends on its past state has allowed researchers to investigate whether and how partners influence each other. Some researchers have also focused on how differences between dyads in their interaction patterns are related to other differences between them. A promising approach in this area is the model that was proposed by Gottman and Murray, which is based on nonlinear coupled difference equations. In this paper, it is shown that their model is a special case of the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. As a consequence, we can make use of existing knowledge about TAR models with respect to parameter estimation, model alternatives and model selection. We propose a new estimation procedure and perform a simulation study to compare it to the estimation procedure developed by Gottman and Murray. In addition, we include an empirical example based on interaction data of three dyads.     

The State, Marriage and Divorce

ABSTRACT This essay advances several interrelated arguments concerning the proper role of the state with regard to marriage and divorce but my main contention is that 'pure'no-fault divorce laws are unjust—or, at least, they are unjust if marriage involves a genuinely contractual element, and there seems to be very little doubt that it does. Locke, Kant and Hegel are three eminent thinkers who are alike in viewing marriage as a contract (though in the case of Hegel, it is a 'contract to transcend the standpoint of contract') and in the first two sections of the essay I consider their views on the role of contract in marriage. Whilst holding (with Hegel) that marriage is more than a contract, I also hold (with Kant) that it is not less than a contract. In section three I consider the implications of this 'not less than', the most important one being that 'pure'no-fault divorce laws are unjust. I shall contend that whilst the irretrievable breakdown of marriage may be regarded as a suitable ground for divorce, it simply cannot, and certainly ought not to, be regarded as a justificatory basis for the laying aside of rights acquired by individuals as a result of their having entered into a marital contract. However minimal one might wish the role of the state to be, or however averse one might be from allowing the state any role at all in purely personal and confidential relationships, yet to allow the expression 'the irretrievable breakdown of marriage'to be employed as a olanket to cover over the infringement of personal, contractually engendered and civilly recognised rights, is not to exercise commendable restraint but is, rather, to condone what is simply an abnegation by the state of its basic responsibility to ensure that justice prevails.     

Irrational Beliefs as Predictors of Emotional Adjustment after Divorce

The goal of this study was to analyze the role of irrational beliefs and other mediating variables in emotional adjustment after marital separation. Self-esteem and attachment to the ex-spouse were chosen as indicators of emotional adjustment. For this purpose several mediation centres and associations for separated people took part in the project. The results showed that irrational beliefs, as well as length of conflict during marriage, time since divorce and desire of contact with the former spouse, are good predictors of emotional adjustment. It has been suggested that Rational-Emotive-Behavior Therapy can be used in the treatment of divorced people.     

Why do even satisfied newlyweds eventually go on to divorce?

Although divorce typically follows an extended period of unhappiness that begins early in marriage, some couples who are very happy throughout the first several years of marriage will also go on to divorce. This study aimed to identify risk factors early in marriage that distinguish initially satisfied couples who eventually divorce from those who remain married. We identified 136 couples reporting stably high levels of relationship satisfaction in the first 4 years of marriage. We compared the couples who went on to divorce by the 10-year follow-up with the couples who remained married on initial measures of commitment, observed communication, stress, and personality. Divorcing couples displayed more negative communication, emotion, and social support as newlyweds compared with couples who did not divorce. No significant differences were found in the other domains, in relationship satisfaction, or in positive behaviors. Overall, results indicate that even couples who are very successful at navigating the early years of marriage can be vulnerable to later dissolution if their interpersonal exchanges are poorly regulated. We speculate that, paradoxically, the many strengths possessed by these couples may mask their potent interpersonal liabilities, posing challenges for educational interventions designed to help these couples.     

What's love got to do with it? Why some marriages succeed and others fail

This essay summarizes a 13‐year longitudinal study carried out in the United States that challenges conventional wisdom about courtship and the early marital roots of connubial distress and divorce. The study traced relationships from courtship, to the early years of marriage, to parenthood (for most), and to divorce (for some). The essay describes the germination of the study, how it was implemented, and what it reveals about why some marriages succeed and others fail. Couples' courtship and early marital experiences foreshadow: (a) whether they stay married or divorce, (b) whether they sustain satisfying unions if their marriage lasts, and (c) how quickly marriages that end in divorce break apart. Mutually satisfying marriages are differentiable from those that fail in that they both promise marital consanguinity and deliver on the promise.     

Premise Acceptability and Message Effectiveness

Previous research shows inconsistent evidence in regard to gender differences in optimism for experiencing a happy marriage or avoiding divorce depending on whether optimism is measured as comparative optimism (thinking you are better off than your peers) or as personal optimism (estimating your own chances). Results from four samples of unmarried college students (N = 814) indicated that men exhibited greater comparative optimism than women for having a happy marriage but not for getting divorced. For having a happy marriage and avoiding divorce, men exhibited greater personal optimism relative to women. Experience (with parental divorce) moderated the gender difference in personal optimism and perceived control partially mediated the gender difference in comparative optimism (but only for having a happy marriage) and in personal optimism (for both having a happy marriage and avoiding divorce). Results are discussed as they relate to the existing literatures on risk perception and gender differences in romantic relationships.     

The analysis of three-way contingency tables by three-mode association models

TheRC(M) association model (Goodman, 1979, 1985, 1986, 1991) is useful for analyzing the relationship between the variables of a 2-way cross-classification. The models presented here are generalizations of theRC(M) association model for 3-way tables. The family of models proposed here, 3-mode association models, use Tucker's 3-mode components model (Tucker, 1964, 1966; Kroonenberg, 1983) to represent either the three factor interaction or the combined effects of two and three factor interactions. An example from a study in developmental psychology (Kramer & Gottman, 1992) is provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed models.I thank Stanley Wasserman, Laurie Kramer, Ulf Böckenholt, Larwence Hubert, Jeffrey Tanaka, and five anonymous reviewers for valuable comments.     

Gay marriage affiliation and location in return of lost letters: reply to Waugh, Plake, and Rienzi (2000)

Reinspection of Waugh, Plake, and Rienzi's 2000 data allowed for several additional analyses. Statistical confirmation was found for no more negative attitudes toward gay marriage as measured by returned responses among churchgoers than among the general public. Confirmation was also found for their previous conclusion that the putative gay marriage controversy among Christian church attendees would be greater than among the general public, but for reasons different from those they proposed. Finally, it is argued that the limitations for the lost letter technique in "prohibiting fine distinctions" is not always correct because their analysis of one research question seemed not too subtle a distinction for the technique.     

Perceived Match or Mismatch on the Gottman Conflict Styles: Associations with Relationship Outcome Variables

Gottman has proposed that there are 3 functional styles of conflict management in couple relationships, labeled Avoidant, Validating, and Volatile, and 1 dysfunctional style, labeled Hostile. Using a sample of 1,983 couples in a committed relationship, we test the association of perceived matches or mismatches on these conflict styles with relationship outcome variables. The results indicate that 32% of the participants perceive there is a mismatch with their conflict style and that of their partner. The Volatile‐Avoidant mismatch was particularly problematic and was associated with more stonewalling, relationship problems, and lower levels of relationship satisfaction and stability than the Validating matched style and than other mismatched styles. The most problematic style was the Hostile style. Contrary to existing assumptions by Gottman, the 3 matched functional styles were not equivalent, as the Validating Style was associated with substantially better results on relationship outcome measures than the Volatile and Avoidant styles.     

RECONSIDERING RESEARCH ON DIVORCE, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, AND THE MEANING OF FAMILY

This article analyzes functionalist and normative assumptions about marriage, divorce, family, and gender in developmental models of family life cycle. An interdisciplinary review of the literature in family development, family sociology, and family therapy reveals how a deficit comparison model implicitly informs the discourse in the study of single-parent families, women who are alone, and the adjustment of women and children to divorce. A feminist critique of family life cycle as the prevailing conceptual model in family development and therapy is presented, and postmodern definitions that deconstruct the concept of family are discussed. Future perspectives for research on family life and form are considered in terms of new action theory that considers divorce as a mode of resistance and change for women and families.     

Stripping Citizenship: Does Membership Have Its (Moral) Privileges?

If states have the moral authority to decide their memberships by denying citizenship, I argue that they may also strip citizenship, from law-abiding members, for the same reasons. The only real difference is that when states revoke citizenship they may need to compensate people for their prior contributions, but that is not unlike what frequently occurs in divorce. Once just termination rules are established, stripping citizenship could become, like divorce, an everyday event. Partly because of this implication, we should reject the membership authority of states.     

Positive illusions in marital relationships: a 13-year longitudinal study

This study examined the long-term consequences of idealization in marriage, using both daily diary and questionnaire data collected from a sample of 168 newlywed couples who participated in a 4-wave, 13-year longitudinal study of marriage. Idealization was operationalized as the tendency for people to perceive their partner as more agreeable than would be expected based on their reports of their partner's agreeable and disagreeable behaviors. Spouses who idealized one another were more in love with each other as newlyweds. Longitudinal analyses suggested that spouses were less likely to suffer declines in love when they idealized one another as newlyweds. Newlywed levels of idealization did not predict divorce.