取样大小对因果强度推理的影响研究

摘 要：使用纸笔测验探讨表格集中呈现信息条件下取样大小对单一因果关系强度推理的影响,并比较五种模型ΔP、效力PC、SS效力、Support和χ2的预测与实验数据的相关。结果显示：（1）取样大小对不同的问题有不同的影响：高取样在ΔP=0时导致了低估计值,在0<|ΔP|=PPC时没有效果,在|ΔP|相似文献   

频率树类型和提问方式对因果强度估计模式的影响

心理学研究的重要目的之一发现心理干预的途径和方法。但截至目前,有效干预人类被试因果推理过程的手段尚不丰富,干预手段的效果并不稳定。本研究采用完全随机设计开展两个实验,分别探讨频率树是否影响大学生被试在反事实提问和能力提问因果推理问题上的作答表现。结果显示:(1)在两个实验中都发现了明显的图形促进效应,大部分被试在借助提供嵌套集合关系频率树(而非隐藏嵌套集合关系频率树)辅助推理时使用PPC值估计因果强度;(2)频率树类型和提问方式共同影响被试的因果强度估计模式,提供嵌套集合关系频率树+反事实提问的组合促使最多被试使用PPC估计因果强度。结果说明:明确数据之间的嵌套集合关系能极大地提高被试使用PPC估计因果强度的概率,关注焦点集信息有助于被试明确数据间的嵌套集合关系。     

样例学习条件下的因果力估计

在逐个呈现因果样例的条件下,考察单一因果关系因果力估计的特点,同时检验联想解释,概率对比模型,权重DP模型,效力PC理论和pCI规则。实验让65名大学生被试估计不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力。实验结果表明：（1）对产生原因的因果力估计符合权重DP模型;（2）对预防原因的因果力估计较多符合效力PC理论;（3）因果力估计具有复杂多样性,难以用统一的模式加以描述和概括。     

不同数学水平儿童的数量估计:图形排列方式的影响

采用参照蔡方之等(2004)所设计的图形材料,考察了不同图形排列方式对不同数学学业水平小学生数量估计的影响。35名三年级被试参加了本实验,其中优生20人,差生15人。行为数据和口头报告分析结果显示:(1)优生是更合理的数量估计者。优生数量估计的绝对误差百分比明显小于差生。(2)图形排列方式对数量估计产生了显著影响。不同图形排列方式可能会造成规则-随机数量错觉和均匀-不均匀数量错觉,从而使均匀及规则图形被高估幅度更大。     

主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响

用贝叶斯推理问题为实验材料,探讨了主体关联性对贝叶斯推理概率估计的影响。结果表明,当估计的事件与主体有关时,被试对消极事件概率估计较低,对积极事件概率估计值;当估计的事件与主体无关时,被试对消极事件和积极事件的概率估计无显著差异。反应时分析表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计比对积极事件的概率估计时间显著地长,当消极事件与主体有关时概率估计时间就更长;而对积极事件的概率估计,与主体有关和与主体无关时反应时差异不显著。这表明,被试对消极事件的概率估计(特别是消极事件与己有关时)更为慎重。     

疼痛条件下时间目标对时距估计的影响

本研究采用冷压任务引发疼痛,以健康大学生为被试,试图探讨在疼痛条件下时间目标对时距估计的影响。结果发现：疼痛条件下的时距估计值小于非疼痛条件下时距估计值,疼痛条件下具体时间目标的时距估计值显著大于无目标时距估计值。临床上给患者提供具体的时间目标或许有助于他们应对疼痛。     

编码强度对字体大小效应的影响

本研究采用3个实验考察编码强度对字体大小效应的影响,探讨由于知觉特征而引发的元认知错觉的内在产生机制(实验1)与有效的矫正措施(实验2和实验3)。结果发现:(1)大字体词语的知觉流畅性显著优于小字体,并且贝叶斯多层中介分析结果表明,知觉流畅性对字体大小效应起部分中介作用(实验1);(2)随着编码强度的增加,由字体大小引起的学习判断错觉逐渐消失(实验2和实验3)。以上结果表明,刺激的知觉特征(字体大小)对个体学习判断的影响,随编码强度激活线索的增加而逐渐减弱。这一结果为真实教学情境中提高学习者的编码强度,进而削弱学习判断对知觉特征线索的依赖,并准确地监测自身的学习进程提供了科学依据。     

情绪调节灵活性对负性情绪的影响：来自经验取样的证据

情绪调节灵活性是指个体根据不断变化的情境需求灵活部署情绪调节策略的能力。本研究采用经验取样方法,通过拟合个体在日常生活事件(如,未通过考试)和突发公共卫生事件(COVID-19)中的策略使用剖面结构和情境负性程度与策略使用程度的共变关系测量个体的情绪调节灵活性水平,并探讨其对个体后续负性情绪(抑郁和焦虑)的影响。两个独立样本结果表明：单一策略使用偏好(如沉浸偏好和表达抑制偏好)的个体在负性生活事件中和疫情期间经历了更高水平的抑郁和焦虑情绪。此外,当个体随情境负性程度提高使用更多分心策略,而随情境负性程度降低使用更多认知重评策略(意味较高的情绪调节灵活性),其抑郁和焦虑情绪水平更低。以上结果共同证实了情绪调节灵活性有利于减少个体的负性情绪体验。     

个人自立、反馈对长时距估计的影响

为了探索人格与反馈对时间估计的影响,本研究采用非时间任务和预期式时距估计的方法对个人自立高分组与低分组共40名被试进行了研究。结果发现：（1）虽然差异不显著,但是在两次时距估计中个人自立高分组的时距估计绝对错误量均小于低分组;（2）个人自立高分组的时距估计绝对错误量变化幅度显著小于低分组;（3）个人自立高分组在两次时距估计绝对错误量上的相关明显大于低分组;（4）有反馈组的时距估计绝对错误量显著小于无反馈组。据此可以认为：（1）由个人自立导致的时间估计的个体差异表现在时间估计的误差变异度和准确性两个方面。高个人自立者的时间估计误差的变异度更小,同时可能倾向于更准确地进行时距估计。（2）反馈有助于提高时间估计的准确性。（3）“绝对错误量变化幅度”和“时距估计绝对错误量的相关”是两个值得在今后的研究中应用的指标。     

不同干扰刺激对成人数量估计的影响

研究采用自行设计的图形材料,考察了不同干扰刺激(纯靶刺激;干扰刺激与靶刺激数量相同;干扰刺激是靶刺激数量的2倍)对成人完成数量估计任务的影响.30名硕士生参加了本实验.行为数据和口头报告资料分析显示:1)反应时随数量估计任务难度的增加而不断增长;2)干扰刺激越多,任务越复杂,成人估计的误差率越高,准确性越低;3)成人存在多重数字表征形式,完成数量估计任务时主要采用线性表征,但随着干扰刺激物的增加,运用对数表征的趋势愈加明显.     

虚拟场景中的信息类型对路径整合效率的影响

空间巡航中常采用路径整合进行位置追踪及方向更新,本研究利用返回起点任务,通过对虚拟场景中不同信息类型的设置,探讨地标、纹理、双线索（地标+纹理）及纯色条件下路径整合效率的差异。结果发现,除角度误差外,双线索条件下路径整合效率显著较高,其次是地标条件,纹理条件次之,纯色条件下表现最差。结果表明,不同信息类型下路径整合效率存在显著差异,且双视觉信息较单一视觉信息条件下的整合效率更优。     

The Dynamics of Personality Approach (DPA): 20 Tenets for Uncovering the Causal Mechanisms of Personality

Over the last few decades, most personality psychology research has been focused on assessing personality via scores on a few broad traits and investigating how these scores predict various behaviours and outcomes. This approach does not seek to explain the causal mechanisms underlying human personality and thus falls short of explaining the proximal sources of traits as well as the variation of individuals' behaviour over time and across situations. On the basis of the commonalities shared by influential process-oriented personality theories and models, we describe a general dynamics of personality approach (DPA). The DPA relies heavily on theoretical principles applicable to complex adaptive systems that self-regulate via feedback mechanisms, and it parses the sources of personality in terms of various psychological functions relevant in different phases of self-regulation. Thus, we consider personality to be rooted in individual differences in various cognitive, emotional–motivational, and volitional functions, as well as their causal interactions. In this article, we lay out 20 tenets for the DPA that may serve as a guideline for integrative research in personality science. © 2020 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology     

虚拟场景中不同客体朝向条件对内在参照系建立的影响

通过眼动记录和部分场景再认两种方法,探讨了虚拟建筑物对称场景中物体朝向统一、凸显两种条件对内在参照系建立的影响。结果发现:(1)场景中均为有朝向建筑物且朝向统一时,被试选择物体朝向与对称轴建立内在参照系的可能性没有差异;(2)场景中只有一个有朝向建筑物,其余均为无朝向物体时,即朝向凸显条件下,被试倾向于选择对称轴来建立内在参照系。物体朝向对内在参照系建立的影响作用具有局限性和不稳定性。     

人类对情绪事件效价强度的易感性及神经机制

人类情绪无疑有强度的差异。然而, 长期以来人类情绪强度的易感性未能引起足够关注。通过系统操纵刺激材料的效价强度, 作者及研究团队分别从情绪易感性本身, 情绪影响高级认知, 以及个体差异三个层次系统探讨了人类对情绪事件效价强度的易感性及其神经机制。结果发现：1)、相比正性刺激, 人类对负性刺激的效价强度更敏感, 这一效应可能跟右侧海马/杏仁核的警觉功能有关联。2)、与上述结果相一致, 不同效价强度的负性情绪对新异性加工、目标觉察、执行控制等高级认知过程具有显著不同的影响。3)、人类情绪强度的易感性具有显著个体差异：相比男性, 女性对轻度负性情绪事件易感性更强。相比中向人群, 外倾人群对愉悦刺激的情绪易感性更强, 而对轻度负性事件的情绪易感性更弱。     

The Use of Verb Information in Parsing: Different Statistical Analyses Lead to Contradictory Conclusions

The research investigated how comprehenders use verb information during syntactic parsing. Two reading experiments investigated the relationship between verb-specific variables and reading time. These experiments were close replications of prior work; however, two statistical techniques were used, rather than one. These were item-by-item correlations and participant-by-participant regression. In Experiment 1, reading time was measured using a self-paced moving window. In Experiment 2, eye movements were recorded during reading. The results of both experiments showed that the results of two types of statistical analyses support contradictory conclusions. The analyses involving participant-by-participant regression analyses provided no evidence for the early use of verb information in parsing and support syntax-first approaches to parsing. In contrast, the results of item-by-item correlation were consistent with the prior research, supporting the view that verb information can guide initial parsing decisions. Implications for theories of parsing are discussed. This research was financially supported by Grants HD-07327 and HD-18708 awarded to the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and supported by a grant awarded to the author by the National Science Foundation (BCS 0446998).     

The asymptotic bias of minimum trace factor analysis, with applications to the greatest lower bound to reliability

In theory, the greatest lower bound (g.l.b.) to reliability is the best possible lower bound to the reliability based on single test administration. Yet the practical use of the g.l.b. has been severely hindered by sampling bias problems. It is well known that the g.l.b. based on small samples (even a sample of one thousand subjects is not generally enough) may severely overestimate the population value, and statistical treatment of the bias has been badly missing. The only results obtained so far are concerned with the asymptotic variance of the g.l.b. and of its numerator (the maximum possible error variance of a test), based on first order derivatives and the asumption of multivariate normality. The present paper extends these results by offering explicit expressions for the second order derivatives. This yields a closed form expression for the asymptotic bias of both the g.l.b. and its numerator, under the assumptions that the rank of the reduced covariance matrix is at or above the Ledermann bound, and that the nonnegativity constraints on the diagonal elements of the matrix of unique variances are inactive. It is also shown that, when the reduced rank is at its highest possible value (i.e., the number of variables minus one), the numerator of the g.l.b. is asymptotically unbiased, and the asymptotic bias of the g.l.b. is negative. The latter results are contrary to common belief, but apply only to cases where the number of variables is small. The asymptotic results are illustrated by numerical examples.This research was supported by grant DMI-9713878 from the National Science Foundation.