BROADENING THE DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING:

Decision theory and research have focused almost exclusively on choice—the selection of the best option from a choice set containing two or more options. Largely overlooked is the question of how those particular options got there in the first place—why them and not others? This article describes a theory, called image theory, about how prechoice screening of options governs the contents of the set from which a choice is made and summarizes empirical tests of the theory. The research results suggest that screening plays afar more important role in decision making than is generally appreciated and that our view of decision making must be broadened accordingly.     

Constraint Respecters, Constraint Challengers, and Crisis Decision Making in Democracies: A Case Study Analysis of Kennedy versus Reagan

Models linking domestic political constraints (audience costs, pressures for the diversionary use of force, democratic norms and institutions) to foreign policy behavior generally assume that leaders simply recognize and submit to constraints in their domestic environments—a strong structural argument. In contrast, research on political leadership and decision making suggests that leaders vary systematically in their orientations toward constraints: "constraint respecters" tend to internalize potential constraints, while "constraint challengers" are more likely to view them as obstacles to be overcome. This article develops an integrative theoretical framework that explicitly incorporates these insights and applies them to the domain of crisis decision making. After identifying leaders' expected orientations toward constraints via at-a-distance methods, the plausibility of hypotheses derived from this framework is examined through case studies that explore the decision-making processes employed by President Kennedy (a "constraint respecter") and President Reagan (a "constraint challenger") during international crises. The results suggest that there is important variation in how leaders perceive and respond to domestic constraints, and that leadership style is one—though not the only—important source of this variation.     

Choice-Process Satisfaction: The Influence of Attribute Alignability and Option Limitation

This research investigates how choice-process satisfaction is influenced by limitation of choice option and by the types of features used to represent the options. Studies of choice satisfaction have focused on how satisfied the decision maker feels about the choice that has been made and have overlooked the importance of the process through which the decision maker makes a choice, i.e., choice-process satisfaction. We show that the comparability of choice options through alignable features increases choice-process satisfaction, whereas option limitation (i.e., making one option unavailable from a set of equally attractive options) decreases choice-process satisfaction. Further, this decrease in satisfaction, relative to all options being available, occurs for people who are given a set of options in which the difference features are alignable (i.e., differences of a corresponding dimension) but not for people who are given a set of options in which the difference features are nonalignable (i.e., differences of unique dimensions). We propose that alignable differences are easier to compare and have more weight in people's attribute processing, and thus give rise to a perception of a greater amount of information about the option set that is relevant for choice. Making an option unavailable in this case would have a bigger impact than in a situation in which all options have nonalignable differences. Nonalignable differences are difficult to process and are less likely to make people aware that there is very much information about the options for decision making. This explanation and the interaction effect between option limitation and feature alignability are tested in four experiments.     

Imperfect Information in Pre-choice Screening of Options

Three experiments examined decision makers′ use of imperfect information in screening of decision options. It was found that: (1) when specific information about options was missing the absence was treated as a violation of the related decision criterion in the manner described by image theory (Beach, 1990; Beach & Mitchell, 1987) - rejection of options was a function of both the number of violations and the amount of missing information; (2) general paucity of information about options prompted rejection over and above the effects of violations, but paucity had about half the impact of violations or of missing information; (3) information about the probability that an option′s outcomes actually will occur were it the final choice was integrated additively with other information in screening, as predicted by image theory, and was integrated multiplicatively with other information in choice, as predicted by expected utility theory. Together with the results of previous research, these results support the image theory view of decision making as a two-stage process, screening followed by choice, and demonstrate once again the pivotal role of screening in this process.     

The cognitive and neural basis of option generation and subsequent choice

Decision-making research has thoroughly investigated how people choose from a set of externally provided options. However, in ill-structured real-world environments, possible options for action are not defined by the situation but have to be generated by the agent. Here, we apply behavioral analysis (Study 1) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (Study 2) to investigate option generation and subsequent choice. For this purpose, we employ a new experimental task that requires participants to generate options for simple real-world scenarios and to subsequently decide among the generated options. Correlational analysis with a cognitive test battery suggests that retrieval of options from long-term memory is a relevant process during option generation. The results of the fMRI study demonstrate that option generation in simple real-world scenarios recruits the anterior prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, we show that choice behavior and its neural correlates differ between self-generated and externally provided options. Specifically, choice between self-generated options is associated with stronger recruitment of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex. This impact of option generation on subsequent choice underlines the need for an expanded model of decision making to accommodate choice between self-generated options.     

What lies beneath: Reframing framing effects

Decision framing concerns how individuals build internal representations of problems and how these determine the choices that they make. Research in this area has been dominated by studies of the framing effect, showing reversals in preference associated with the form in which a decision problem is presented. While there are studies that fail to reveal this effect, there is at present no theory that can explain why and when the effect occurs. The purpose of this article is to present a selective review of research and use this to argue for a new framework for considering decision framing, to interpret past studies, and to set an agenda for future research. A simple information-processing model is developed. The model provides the basis for arguing that previous research has taken too narrow a view of how decision problems are internally represented and how these representations are transformed into choice behaviour. In addition, the model is used to highlight the importance of decision content and context.     

Consensus, clinical decision making, and unsettled cases

The model of clinical ethics consultation (CEC) defended in the ASBH Core Competencies report has gained significant traction among scholars and healthcare providers. On this model, the aim of CEC is to facilitate deliberative reflection and thereby resolve conflicts and clarify value uncertainty by invoking and pursuing a process of consensus building. It is central to the model that the facilitated consensus falls within a range of allowable options, defined by societal values: prevailing legal requirements, widely endorsed organizational policies, and professional standards of practice and codes of conduct. Moreover, the model stipulates that ethics consultants must refrain from giving substantive recommendations regarding how parties to a moral disagreement in the clinic should evaluate their options. We argue that this model of CEC is incomplete, because it wrongly assumes that what counts as the proper set of allowable options among which the parties are to deliberate will itself always be clearly discernible. We illustrate this problem with a recent case on which one of us consulted-a neonate born with trisomy 18 (T18). We try to show that law, policy, and standards of practice reveal no clear answer to the question posed by the case: namely, whether forgoing gastrostomy tube feedings for a baby with T18 is allowable. We suggest there may be other kinds of cases in which it may simply be unsettled whether a given choice falls within the set of allowable options within which consensus is to be facilitated. What should an ethicist do when confronting such unsettled cases? We agree with the facilitation model that an ethicist should remain neutral among the allowable options, when it is clear what the allowable options are. But, in unsettled cases, the role of a consultant should be expanded to include a process of moral inquiry into what the allowable options should be. We end by raising the issue of whether this means an ethicist should share his or her own conclusions or views about the allowability of a given clinical option.     

A dynamic, stochastic, computational model of preference reversal phenomena

Preference orderings among a set of options may depend on the elicitation method (e.g., choice or pricing); these preference reversals challenge traditional decision theories. Previous attempts to explain these reversals have relied on allowing utility of the options to change across elicitation methods by changing the decision weights, the attribute values, or the combination of this information--still, no theory has successfully accounted for all the phenomena. In this article, the authors present a new computational model that accounts for the empirical trends without changing decision weights, values, or combination rules. Rather, the current model specifies a dynamic evaluation and response process that correctly predicts preference orderings across 6 elicitation methods, retains stable evaluations across methods, and makes novel predictions regarding response distributions and response times.     

IIA,rationality, and the individuation of options

The independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is a popular and important axiom of decision theory. It states, roughly, that one’s choice from a set of options should not be influenced by the addition or removal of further, unchosen options. In recent debates, a number of authors have given putative counterexamples to it, involving intuitively rational agents who violate IIA. Generally speaking, however, these counterexamples do not tend to move IIA’s proponents. Their strategy tends to be to individuate the options that the agent faces differently, so that the case no longer counts as a violation of IIA. In this paper, we examine whether this strategy succeeds. We argue that the ways of individuating options required to save IIA from the most problematic counterexamples—in particular, cases where agents violate IIA due to nonconsequentialist moral beliefs—do so only at the expense of severely compromising its central function within decision theory.     

Candidate Evaluations Through the Lens of Adaptive Followership Psychology: How and Why Voters Prefer Leaders Based on Character Traits

An extensive literature in political science shows how citizens' evaluations of politicians—as well as their electoral behavior—are affected by trait impressions of these politicians. However, deeper, interdisciplinary theory building that seeks to address when and for whom specific trait impressions come to guide candidate evaluations remains absent. In this article, I outline the theory of adaptive followership that seeks to address this shortcoming. Grounded in evolutionary psychology, I argue that leadership evolved as a solution to problems of intragroup coordination in ancestral small-scale societies. In order to understand the traits that drive followers' and voters' evaluations of leaders and politicians, one should therefore focus on problems related to group coordination and ask how these problems might regulate followers' prioritizations of various traits in leaders. On this basis, I outline an analytical framework consisting of three predictions that simultaneously formulate how (1) contexts and (2) individual differences of relevance to a given group-coordination problem regulate trait preferences, and (3) how such preferences differ between leaders and nonleaders (i.e., other social categories). The analytical framework is applied for structuring two reviews (including new empirical studies) of the ways through which intergroup conflict and disease threat, respectively, affect followers' trait preferences in leaders. Finally, directions and suggestions for future research on trait-based candidates and leader evaluations are discussed.     

Termination of information evaluation in auditing

A screening decision is about whether a candidate fails to meet a decision maker's criteria and must be rejected, or whether it meets the criteria and can be accepted. Image theory contends that screening decisions are based on a simple, noncompensatory process that focuses solely upon the candidate's negative attributes. This contention has received empirical support in a job screening context in which students role-played a hypothetical person seeking a job. But how robust is image theory's prediction? The present work was done in the context of professional auditors screening prospective clients. The client screening context is a particularly interesting setting to test the implications of image theory. If auditors reject clients with negative attributes, as predicted by image theory, this will indicate that some clients are being denied access to a socially useful service. Further, auditors can accept prospective clients with negative attributes and simply adjust the audit plan and fees to compensate for the client's riskiness. Thus, it is not clear that the preliminary findings obtained in a job screening context will generalize to the audit context. On the other hand, results consistent with the image theory prediction would suggest a robust theory. Even in the client screening context, where auditors used their own criteria to screen prospective clients, we found overwhelming support for image theory's view of screening. The results indicate the potential payoffs of image theory as a robust framework to address audit and other substantive problems. Implications of a noncompensatory, negative oriented, client screening strategy are discussed.     

Testing the Compatibility Test: How Instructions, Accountability, and Anticipated Regret Affect Prechoice Screening of Options

Subjects screened a set of jobs, retaining those for which they wished to apply and rejecting those that were no longer under consideration. In Experiment 1, subjects who indicated the jobs for which they would apply/not apply screened out fewer jobs than those with instructions to reject/not reject or those with instructions simply to screen (control). There were no differences between the reject and control conditions. Experiment 2 used a design similar to that of Experiment 1, but subjects were made accountable for their screening judgments. The reject-apply discrepancy remained, but the accountability manipulation made the subjects more stringent in their screening compared to those who were not accountable for their judgments. In Experiment 3, subjects were told to consider either the regret resulting from retaining a bad option (regret bad) or the regret from rejecting a good option (regret good). Subjects in the regret bad condition rejected more jobs than did subjects in the regret good condition, but not more than subjects in the control condition. As predicted by image theory, the normal screening process appears to be to screen out the bad options rather than screen in the good options. This is demonstrated by screening in the control condition being similar to screening under the reject instructions (Experiment 1) and under regret bad instructions (Experiment 3), since these conditions were shown to focus attention on the bad options. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.     

The causal psycho-logic of choice

Choices do not merely identify one option among a set of possibilities; choosing is an intervention, an action that changes the world. As a result, good decision making generally requires a model specifying how actions are causally related to outcomes. Interventions license different inferences than observations because an event whose state has been determined by intervention is not diagnostic of the normal causes of that event. We integrate these ideas into a causal framework for decision making based on causal Bayes nets theory, and suggest that deliberate decision making is based on simplified causal models and imaginary interventions. The framework is consistent with what we know so far about how people make decisions.     

Take the first heuristic, self-efficacy, and decision-making in sport

Can taking the first (TTF) option in decision-making lead to the best decisions in sports contexts? And, is one's decision-making self-efficacy in that context linked to TTF decisions? The purpose of this study was to examine the role of the TTF heuristic and self-efficacy in decision-making on a simulated sports task. Undergraduate and graduate students (N = 72) participated in the study and performed 13 trials in each of two video-based basketball decision tasks. One task required participants to verbally generate options before making a final decision on what to do next, while the other task simply asked participants to make a decision regarding the next move as quickly as possible. Decision-making self-efficacy was assessed using a 10-item questionnaire comprising various aspects of decision-making in basketball. Participants also rated their confidence in the final decision. Results supported many of the tenets of the TTF heuristic, such that people used the heuristic on a majority of the trials (70%), earlier generated options were better than later ones, first options were meaningfully generated, and final options were meaningfully selected. Results did not support differences in dynamic inconsistency or decision confidence based on the number of options. Findings also supported the link between self-efficacy and the TTF heuristic. Participants with higher self-efficacy beliefs used TTF more frequently and generated fewer options than those with low self-efficacy. Thus, not only is TTF an important heuristic when making decisions in dynamic, time-pressure situations, but self-efficacy plays an influential role in TTF.     

Fact-Dependent Policy Disagreements and Political Legitimacy

Suppose we have a persistent disagreement about a particular set of policy options, not because of an underlying moral disagreement, or a mere conflict of interest, but rather because we disagree about a crucial non-normative factual assumption underlying the justification of the policy choices. The main question in the paper is what political legitimacy requires in such cases, or indeed whether there are defensible answers to that question. The problem of political legitimacy in fact-dependent policy disagreements has received almost no attention in political philosophy, which has focused mostly on value disagreements and proposed theories of legitimate coercive legislation in valuedependent disagreements. The paper presents an argument showing that under certain plausible assumptions regarding legitimacy, there are serious difficulties in identifying legitimate choices in fact-dependent policy disagreements. This may be unsurprising to political philosophers preoccupied with value-based disagreements, perhaps because it has been assumed that legitimacy-related concerns are irrelevant (or do not apply) to fact-dependent policy disagreements. The paper argues that this response is premature. If we should care about legitimacy et al.l, then it is by no means clear why we should ignore issues of legitimacy in policy-disputes that depend on factual disagreements. The paper ends by defining a set of possibilities that merit further exploration in search of a theory of legitimacy in fact-dependent policy disagreements.     

Goal-Focused Leadership,Leader-Member Exchange,and Task Performance: The Moderating Effects of Goal Orientations and Emotional Exhaustion

An important role of leaders is to foster followers’ performance through goal setting processes, which involve reciprocal interactions between leaders and followers (Locke & Latham in American Psychologist, 57, 705–717, 2002). Drawing upon the theory of role-making processes and a resource allocation framework, this study examined (a) how leaders’ goal setting activities interact with employees’ goal orientations and emotional exhaustion in predicting leader-member exchange (LMX), and (b) how LMX intervenes between goal-focused leadership and followers’ task performance. Hypotheses were tested using data collected from a sample of 187 leader-subordinate dyads from South Korea. Follower learning goal orientation (LGO) weakened the positive relationship between goal-focused leadership and LMX and, indirectly, task performance, contributing to the literature on goal orientations by revealing a “backfire effect” of LGO. Additionally, employee emotional exhaustion also reduced the positive relationship of goal-focused leadership to LMX and, ultimately, task performance. Integrating the theory of role-making processes from the LMX literature and a resource allocation perspective on self-regulation behavior, the present findings indicate that LMX is a key process through which goal-focused leadership relates to follower task performance. Furthermore, this study contributes to the goal-focused leadership literature by pointing out the importance of adopting an interactional perspective on leaders’ influence. Specifically, findings suggest that followers with divergent characteristics in terms of goal orientations and resourcefulness respond differently to leaders’ goal setting activities. This is one of the few studies that have examined the mechanisms and boundary conditions by which leaders’ goal-focused behaviors relate to followers’ task performance.     

Preference reversal in multiattribute choice

A central puzzle for theories of choice is that people's preferences between options can be reversed by the presence of decoy options (that are not chosen) or by the presence of other irrelevant options added to the choice set. Three types of reversal effect reported in the decision-making literature, the attraction, compromise, and similarity effects, have been explained by a number of theoretical proposals. Yet a major theoretical challenge is capturing all 3 effects simultaneously. We review the range of mechanisms that have been proposed to account for decoy effects and analyze in detail 2 computational models, decision field theory (Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001) and leaky competing accumulators (Usher & McClelland, 2004), that aim to combine several such mechanisms into an integrated account. By simulating the models, we examine differences in the ways the decoy effects are predicted. We argue that the LCA framework, which follows on Tversky's relational evaluation with loss aversion (Tversky & Kahneman, 1991), provides a more robust account, suggesting that common mechanisms are involved in both high-level decision making and perceptual choice, for which LCA was originally developed.     

Theoretically informed qualitative psychotherapy research: A primer

This paper presents an introduction to theoretically informed qualitative psychotherapy research (QPR). Although QPR researchers have traditionally remained silent on theory, we suggest this has resulted in an implicit and unacknowledged use of theory. We argue instead for a clear articulation of qualitative researchers' theory and outline how theory can be incorporated to inform the entire qualitative research process. This approach assumes the research problem is embedded in a clearly defined and articulated theoretical framework, which also informs data collection and data analysis. We outline how researchers can use explicit theoretical frameworks to inform research question formulation, data collection and data analysis and illustrate this with specific applications of the method in practice. We believe that starting from a declared theoretical framework sets up a dialogue between the research problem, the type of data required and their meaningful analysis and interpretation. This aims not only to achieve greater depth in the final product of research, but also to enhance its utility in terms of practice; it contributes to building, altering and differentiating theory; and it allows for greater transparency by openly articulating the theoretical framework that scaffolds the entirety of the research process.