Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.     

Decision making, impulsivity and time perception

Time is an important dimension when individuals make decisions. Specifically, the time until a beneficial outcome can be received is viewed as a cost and is weighed against the benefits of the outcome. We propose that impulsive individuals experience time differently, that is with a higher cost. Impulsive subjects, therefore, overestimate the duration of time intervals and, as a consequence, discount the value of delayed rewards more strongly than do self-controlled individuals. The literature on time perception and impulsivity, however, is not clear cut and needs a better theoretical foundation. Here, we develop the theoretical background on concepts of time perception, which could lead to an empirically based notion of the association between an altered sense of time and impulsivity.     

Decision making and learning while taking sequential risks

A sequential risk-taking paradigm used to identify real-world risk takers invokes both learning and decision processes. This article expands the paradigm to a larger class of tasks with different stochastic environments and different learning requirements. Generalizing a Bayesian sequential risk-taking model to the larger set of tasks clarifies the roles of learning and decision making during sequential risky choice. Results show that respondents adapt their learning processes and associated mental representations of the task to the stochastic environment. Furthermore, their Bayesian learning processes are shown to interfere with the paradigm's identification of risky drug use, whereas the decision-making process facilitates its diagnosticity. Theoretical implications of the results in terms of both understanding risk-taking behavior and improving risk-taking assessment methods are discussed.     

Deontic reasoning reviewed: psychological questions,empirical findings,and current theories

Deontic reasoning is concerned with questions of whether actions are forbidden or allowed, obligatory or not obligatory. This article reviews empirical findings and psychological theories on deontic reasoning with regard to three questions that have guided psychological research during the last decades: How do people’s deontic capabilities develop? How well do people perform in deontic reasoning tasks? And how do they represent deontic rules? In conclusion, it is discussed why deontic reasoning—despite astonishing, early developing competencies—is still a complex cognitive activity.     

Decision making, movement planning and statistical decision theory

We discuss behavioral studies directed at understanding how probability information is represented in motor and economic tasks. By formulating the behavioral tasks in the language of statistical decision theory, we can compare performance in equivalent tasks in different domains. Subjects in traditional economic decision-making tasks often misrepresent the probability of rare events and typically fail to maximize expected gain. By contrast, subjects in mathematically equivalent movement tasks often choose movement strategies that come close to maximizing expected gain. We discuss the implications of these different outcomes, noting the evident differences between the source of uncertainty and how information about uncertainty is acquired in motor and economic tasks.     

心理距离视角下的行为决策

决策是指决策者对将产生不同结果的多个备择方案的评估与选择。无论决策结果涉及的是金钱、健康、环境或是其他事物,它们都同时具有多重属性,如发生的概率,发生的时间,发生的地点,发生在谁身上等,这些属性会和结果量一起影响人们对结果效用的评价和对备择方案的选择。以往有关风险决策、跨期决策和社会决策的理论分别探究结果的概率属性、时间属性和人际属性如何与结果量一起共同决定人们的效用评估与选择,并提出了各自不同的决策模型。然而,心理距离理论则认为,决策结果的概率、时间、空间、人际等属性本质上都可被表征为结果在决策者心中的心理距离。这意味着风险、跨期和社会决策模型有可能经由心理距离而得以统一。近几年来,众多研究围绕这一思想开展了一系列实验研究,分析了各种心理距离的同质性,探索了基于心理距离的心理折扣现象及其规律,探讨了时间、概率、人际、空间距离对个体决策的影响。在此基础上,未来研究还应更加重视对多特征决策的研究,探索心理距离之间的替换率和通币问题,探究心理距离的本质及其整合方式,以期形成统一的决策理论模型。     

Decision making under conflict: Decision time as a measure of conflict strength

Conflict and choice are closely related in that choice produces conflict and conflict is resolved by making a choice. Although conflict was invoked in psychological approaches to decision making early on (Lewin, 1931/1964), no generally accepted measure of conflict strength has been established (Tversky & Shafir, 1992). The present study introduces a model (multiattribute decision field theory) that predicts a decision time pattern depending on the conflict situation. In a risky decision-making experiment with multiattribute choice alternatives, decision time is investigated as a possible measure of conflict strength. It is shown that the model can be fitted to a complex choice pattern.     

Social control, health risk taking, and psychological distress among the elderly

Most research on older adults' social networks has focused on the support-providing function of social relationships. Little gerontological research has addressed social control, or the role of social bonds in regulating deviant or risky behavior. Drawing on sociological theory, this study examined the hypothesis that social control discourages risky health practices while provoking psychological distress. Structured interviews conducted with 162 community-residing older adults assessed social control (direct attempts by other to influence participants' health practices and the existence of significant role obligations to others), health risk taking (medication misuse, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, and the overall level of unsound health practices), psychological functioning (depression, loneliness, and self-esteem), and interpersonal satisfaction (satisfaction with friends and family members). Analyses revealed little support for the hypothesis. Social control was only weakly related to participants' health practices and, contrary to expectation, was generally related to less psychological distress and to greater interpersonal satisfaction. Implications for social control theory and for further research are addressed.     

Peer influence on risk taking, risk preference, and risky decision making in adolescence and adulthood: an experimental study

In this study, 306 individuals in 3 age groups--adolescents (13-16), youths (18-22), and adults (24 and older)--completed 2 questionnaire measures assessing risk preference and risky decision making, and 1 behavioral task measuring risk taking. Participants in each age group were randomly assigned to complete the measures either alone or with 2 same-aged peers. Analyses indicated that (a) risk taking and risky decision making decreased with age; (b) participants took more risks, focused more on the benefits than the costs of risky behavior, and made riskier decisions when in peer groups than alone; and (c) peer effects on risk taking and risky decision making were stronger among adolescents and youths than adults. These findings support the idea that adolescents are more inclined toward risky behavior and risky decision making than are adults and that peer influence plays an important role in explaining risky behavior during adolescence.     

Birth order and personality: Some empirical findings and a biobehavioral theory

The birth-order variables assessed included sex and number of siblings, assignment to 2- or 3-child family for separate sample analysis, family position as appropriate to given sample, spacing effect—was the birth of the second child spaced 4 years or more after the first child—dominance relationships in the family, sex of nearest siblings, sex of other siblings as appropriate, whether raised by both original parents, whether raised by foster parent(s). The personality variables assessed included sociability, anxiety, dominance, superego, phlegmatic temperament, involvement, self-regard and other scales measured by the new Howarth Personality Questionnaire. Samples of 50 for the 2-child families and 58 for the 3-child families were analyzed and it was found that: (a) in the 2-child families eldest children were less cooperative than younger, that those reporting dominance by another sibling were higher in state anxiety and this also applied to the younger of the pair, that those spaced in birth order were less afraid of being socially unacceptable, that those raised by both parents were higher in involvement; (b) in the 3-child families those dominated by a sibling, regardless of position, had more hypochondriac symptoms (a sign of anxiety), and that those spaced in birth order showed less cooperativeness. A biobehavioral theory to encompass biological-hormonal spacing effects and dominance as well as other intrafamilial behaviors was proposed.     

Further explorations in empowerment theory: An empirical analysis of psychological empowerment

Developed empowerment theory and replicated previous research on citizen participation and perceived control. Few investigators have designed studies that specifically test empowerment theory. This research further extends a theoretical model of psychological empowerment that includes intrapersonal, interactional, and behavioral components, by studying a large randomly selected urban and suburban community sample and examining race differences. Results suggest that one underlying dimension that combines different measures of perceived control may be interpreted as the intrapersonal component of psychological empowerment, because it distinguishes groups defined by their level of participation in community organizations and activities (behavioral component). The association found between the intrapersonal and behavioral components is consistent with empowerment theory. Interaction effects between race groups and participation suggest that participation may be more strongly associated with the intrapersonal component of psychological empowerment for African Americans than for white individuals. Implications for empowerment theory and intervention design are discussed. The authors express appreciation to Steven Rosenstone who was the Principal Investigator for the Detroit Area Study from which the data for our study is based. We also thank Deborah A. Salem and the anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Decision making under time pressure: An independent test of sequential sampling models

Choice probability and choice response time data from a risk-taking decision-making task were compared with predictions made by a sequential sampling model. The behavioral data, consistent with the model, showed that participants were less likely to take an action as risk levels increased, and that time pressure did not have a uniform effect on choice probability. Under time pressure, participants were more conservative at the lower risk levels but were more prone to take risks at the higher levels of risk. This crossover interaction reflected a reduction of the threshold within a single decision strategy rather than a switching of decision strategies. Response time data, as predicted by the model, showed that participants took more time to make decisions at the moderate risk levels and that time pressure reduced response time across all risk levels, but particularly at the those risk levels that took longer time with no pressure. Finally, response time data were used to rule out the hypothesis that time pressure effects could be explained by a fast-guess strategy.     

Decision making in a dynamic situation: The effect of false alarms and time pressure

An experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of a priori probability of false alarms and time pressure on decision-making behaviour in a dynamic task environment. In order to assess whether strategy selection in a dynamic task environment would be adaptive, we modelled the task mathematically, and compared actual decision strategies to the optimal ones. In addition to the selected strategy, we also studied decision-making behaviour at a lower operational level, reflecting the amount of effort subjects are willing to spend on the decision process. Subjects were required to monitor the fitness level of a simulated athlete, who was running a race, and had to provide treatments whenever the athlete's fitness level suggested a real physiological problem. When a decline of the athlete's fitness was caused by a false alarm, a spontaneous recovery would occur after some time, without any need for intervention. Time pressure was manipulated by the rate at which the athlete's fitness level declined. Overall, subjects did not select the most efficient strategy: they dominantly selected information before applying an action, even though it would have been more profitable, and less effortful, just to apply actions. At the operational level, subjects appeared to invest less effort when the probability of false alarms increased and to invest more effort when time pressure increased. However, in contrast to the outcomes of our mathematical model, subjects adjusted the amount of intervention to the a priori probability of false alarms and not to time pressure. Together, the results indicate that the selection of a decision strategy in a dynamic task is less adaptive then is generally concluded from studies with static tasks.     

Perceptions of psychological researchers and clinicians: a questionnaire based on empirical data and theory.

Clinical and research psychologists continue to be regarded stereotypically even by 187 students currently anticipating careers in psychology and closely related fields. This article gives data for 10 issues on which clinicians and researchers are perceived to differ. Specifically, a 10-item questionnaire is described which allows such stereotypes to be further explored or explained.     

Arousal, processing, and risk taking: consequences of intergroup anger

Intergroup emotions theory (IET) posits that when social categorization is salient, individuals feel the same emotions as others who share their group membership. Extensive research supporting this proposition has relied heavily on self-reports of group-based emotions. In three experiments, the authors provide converging evidence that group-based anger has subtle and less explicitly controlled consequences for information processing, using measures that do not rely on self-reported emotional experience. Specifically, the authors show that intergroup anger involves arousal (Experiment 1), reduces systematic processing of persuasive messages (Experiment 2), is moderated by group identification (Experiment 2, posttest), and compared to intergroup fear, increases risk taking (Experiment 3). These findings provide converging evidence that consistent with IET, emotions triggered by social categorization have psychologically consequential effects and are not evident solely in self-reports.     

Decision making under risk condition in patients with Parkinson's disease: a behavioural and fMRI study

We aimed to study whether previously described impairment in decision making under risky conditions in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) is affected by deficits in using information about potential incentives or by processing feedback (in terms of fictitious gains and losses following each decision). Additionally, we studied whether the neural correlates of using explicit information in decision making under risk differ between PD patients and healthy subjects. We investigated ten cognitively intact PD patients and twelve healthy subjects with the Game of Dice Task (GDT) to assess risky decision making, and with an fMRI paradigm to analyse the neural correlates of information integration in the deliberative decision phase. Behaviourally, PD patients showed selective impairment in the GDT but not on the fMRI task that did not include a feedback component. Healthy subjects exhibited lateral prefrontal, anterior cingulate and parietal activations when integrating decision-relevant information. Despite similar behavioural patterns on the fMRI task, patients exhibited reduced parietal activation. Behavioural results suggest that PD patients' deficits in risky decision making are dominated by impaired feedback utilization not compensable by intact cognitive functions. Our fMRI results suggest similarities but also differences in neural correlates when using explicit information for the decision process, potentially indicating different strategy application even if the interfering feedback component is excluded.     

Physician decision making and cardiac risk: effects of knowledge, risk perception, risk tolerance, and fuzzy processing

Despite training, professionals sometimes make serious errors in risky decision making. The authors investigated judgments and decisions for 9 hypothetical patients at 3 levels of cardiac risk, comparing student and physician groups varying in domain-specific knowledge. Decisions were examined regarding whether they deviated from guidelines, how risk perceptions and risk tolerances determined decisions, and how the latter differed for knowledge groups. More knowledgeable professionals were better at discriminating levels of risk according to external correspondence criteria but committed similar errors in disjunctive probability judgments, violating internal coherence criteria. Also, higher knowledge groups relied on fewer dimensions of information than did lower knowledge groups. Consistent with fuzzy-trace theory, experts achieved better discrimination by processing less information and made sharper all-or-none distinctions among decision categories.