基于结构方程模型的多层调节效应

使用多层线性模型进行调节效应分析在社科领域已常有应用。尽管多层线性模型区分了层1自变量的组间和组内效应、实现了多层调节效应的分解, 仍然存在抽样误差和测量误差。建议在多层结构方程模型框架下, 设置潜变量和多指标来有效校正抽样误差和测量误差。在介绍多层调节SEM分析的随机系数预测法和潜调节结构方程法后, 总结出一套多层调节的SEM分析流程, 通过一个例子来演示如何用Mplus软件进行多层调节SEM分析。随后评述了多层调节效应分析方法在国内心理学的应用现状, 并展望了多层结构方程和多层调节研究的拓展方向。     

Linear structural equations with latent variables

An interdependent multivariate linear relations model based on manifest, measured variables as well as unmeasured and unmeasurable latent variables is developed. The latent variables include primary or residual common factors of any order as well as unique factors. The model has a simpler parametric structure than previous models, but it is designed to accommodate a wider range of applications via its structural equations, mean structure, covariance structure, and constraints on parameters. The parameters of the model may be estimated by gradient and quasi-Newton methods, or a Gauss-Newton algorithm that obtains least-squares, generalized least-squares, or maximum likelihood estimates. Large sample standard errors and goodness of fit tests are provided. The approach is illustrated by a test theory model and a longitudinal study of intelligence.This investigation was supported in part by a Research Scientist Development Award (KO2-DA00017) and a research grant (DA01070) from the U. S. Public Health Service.     

On normal theory based inference for multilevel models with distributional violations

Data in social and behavioral sciences are often hierarchically organized though seldom normal, yet normal theory based inference procedures are routinely used for analyzing multilevel models. Based on this observation, simple adjustments to normal theory based results are proposed to minimize the consequences of violating normality assumptions. For characterizing the distribution of parameter estimates, sandwich-type covariance matrices are derived. Standard errors based on these covariance matrices remain consistent under distributional violations. Implications of various covariance estimators are also discussed. For evaluating the quality of a multilevel model, a rescaled statistic is given for both the hierarchical linear model and the hierarchical structural equation model. The rescaled statistic, improving the likelihood ratio statistic by estimating one extra parameter, approaches the same mean as its reference distribution. A simulation study with a 2-level factor model implies that the rescaled statistic is preferable.This research was supported by grants DA01070 and DA00017 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and a University of North Texas faculty research grant. We would like to thank the Associate Editor and two reviewers for suggestions that helped to improve the paper.     

Items bundles

An item bundle is a small group of multiple choice items that share a common reading passage or graph, or a small group of matching items that share distractors. Item bundles are easily identified by paging through a copy of a test. Bundled items may violate the latent conditional independence assumption of unidimensional item response theory (IRT), but such a violation would not typically suggest the existence of a new fundamental human ability to read one specific reading passage or to interpret one specific graph. It is important, therefore, to have theoretical concepts and empirical checks that distinguish between, on the one hand, anticipated violations of latent conditional independence within item bundles, and, on the other hand, violations that cannot be attributed to idiosyncratic features of test format and instead suggest departures from unidimensionalty. To this end, two theorems on unidimensional IRT are extended to describe observable item response distributions when there is conditional independencebetween but not necessarilywithin item bundles.The author is grateful to Ivo Molenaar and the referees for many helpful suggestions, and to D. Thayer for assistance with computing.     

解释性项目反应理论模型：理论与应用

解释性项目反应理论模型(Explanatory Item Response Theory Models, EIRTM)是指基于广义线性混合模型和非线性混合模型构建的项目反应理论(Item Response Theory, IRT)模型。EIRTM能在IRT模型的基础上直接加入预测变量, 从而解决各类测量问题。首先介绍EIRTM的相关概念和参数估计方法, 然后展示如何使用EIRTM处理题目位置效应、测验模式效应、题目功能差异、局部被试依赖和局部题目依赖, 接着提供实例对EIRTM的使用进行说明, 最后对EIRTM的不足之处和应用前景进行讨论。     

Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables using item response theory

It is shown that measurement error in predictor variables can be modeled using item response theory (IRT). The predictor variables, that may be defined at any level of an hierarchical regression model, are treated as latent variables. The normal ogive model is used to describe the relation between the latent variables and dichotomous observed variables, which may be responses to tests or questionnaires. It will be shown that the multilevel model with measurement error in the observed predictor variables can be estimated in a Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling. In this article, handling measurement error via the normal ogive model is compared with alternative approaches using the classical true score model. Examples using real data are given.This paper is part of the dissertation by Fox (2001) that won the 2002 Psychometric Society Dissertation Award.     

High-dimensional maximum marginal likelihood item factor analysis by adaptive quadrature

Although the Bock–Aitkin likelihood-based estimation method for factor analysis of dichotomous item response data has important advantages over classical analysis of item tetrachoric correlations, a serious limitation of the method is its reliance on fixed-point Gauss-Hermite (G-H) quadrature in the solution of the likelihood equations and likelihood-ratio tests. When the number of latent dimensions is large, computational considerations require that the number of quadrature points per dimension be few. But with large numbers of items, the dispersion of the likelihood, given the response pattern, becomes so small that the likelihood cannot be accurately evaluated with the sparse fixed points in the latent space. In this paper, we demonstrate that substantial improvement in accuracy can be obtained by adapting the quadrature points to the location and dispersion of the likelihood surfaces corresponding to each distinct pattern in the data. In particular, we show that adaptive G-H quadrature, combined with mean and covariance adjustments at each iteration of an EM algorithm, produces an accurate fast-converging solution with as few as two points per dimension. Evaluations of this method with simulated data are shown to yield accurate recovery of the generating factor loadings for models of upto eight dimensions. Unlike an earlier application of adaptive Gibbs sampling to this problem by Meng and Schilling, the simulations also confirm the validity of the present method in calculating likelihood-ratio chi-square statistics for determining the number of factors required in the model. Finally, we apply the method to a sample of real data from a test of teacher qualifications.     

The relationship between multilevel models and non‐parametric multilevel mixture models: Discrete approximation of intraclass correlation,random coefficient distributions,and residual heteroscedasticity

Multilevel data structures are common in the social sciences. Often, such nested data are analysed with multilevel models (MLMs) in which heterogeneity between clusters is modelled by continuously distributed random intercepts and/or slopes. Alternatively, the non‐parametric multilevel regression mixture model (NPMM) can accommodate the same nested data structures through discrete latent class variation. The purpose of this article is to delineate analytic relationships between NPMM and MLM parameters that are useful for understanding the indirect interpretation of the NPMM as a non‐parametric approximation of the MLM, with relaxed distributional assumptions. We define how seven standard and non‐standard MLM specifications can be indirectly approximated by particular NPMM specifications. We provide formulas showing how the NPMM can serve as an approximation of the MLM in terms of intraclass correlation, random coefficient means and (co)variances, heteroscedasticity of residuals at level 1, and heteroscedasticity of residuals at level 2. Further, we discuss how these relationships can be useful in practice. The specific relationships are illustrated with simulated graphical demonstrations, and direct and indirect interpretations of NPMM classes are contrasted. We provide an R function to aid in implementing and visualizing an indirect interpretation of NPMM classes. An empirical example is presented and future directions are discussed.     

Asymptotic biases in exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling

Formulas for the asymptotic biases of the parameter estimates in structural equation models are provided in the case of the Wishart maximum likelihood estimation for normally and nonnormally distributed variables. When multivariate normality is satisfied, considerable simplification is obtained for the models of unstandardized variables. Formulas for the models of standardized variables are also provided. Numerical examples with Monte Carlo simulations in factor analysis show the accuracy of the formulas and suggest the asymptotic robustness of the asymptotic biases with normality assumption against nonnormal data. Some relationships between the asymptotic biases and other asymptotic values are discussed.The author is indebted to the editor and anonymous reviewers for their comments, corrections, and suggestions on this paper, and to Yutaka Kano for discussion on biases.     

On the explaining‐away phenomenon in multivariate latent variable models

Many probabilistic models for psychological and educational measurements contain latent variables. Well‐known examples are factor analysis, item response theory, and latent class model families. We discuss what is referred to as the ‘explaining‐away’ phenomenon in the context of such latent variable models. This phenomenon can occur when multiple latent variables are related to the same observed variable, and can elicit seemingly counterintuitive conditional dependencies between latent variables given observed variables. We illustrate the implications of explaining away for a number of well‐known latent variable models by using both theoretical and real data examples.     

Model comparison of nonlinear structural equation models with fixed covariates

Recently, it has been recognized that the commonly used linear structural equation model is inadequate to deal with some complicated substantive theory. A new nonlinear structural equation model with fixed covariates is proposed in this article. A procedure, which utilizes the powerful path sampling for computing the Bayes factor, is developed for model comparison. In the implementation, the required random observations are simulated via a hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. It is shown that the proposed procedure is efficient and flexible; and it produces Bayesian estimates of the parameters, latent variables, and their highest posterior density intervals as by-products. Empirical performances of the proposed procedure such as sensitivity to prior inputs are illustrated by a simulation study and a real example.This research is fully supported by a grant from the Research Grant Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK 4346/01H). The authors are thankful to the Editor, the Associate Editor, and anonymous reviewers for valuable comments which improve the paper significantly, and grateful to ICPSR and the relevant funding agency for allowing use of the data in the example. The assistance of Michael K.H. Leung and Esther L.S. Tam is gratefully acknowledged.     

Exploratory structural equation modeling,bifactor models,and standard confirmatory factor analysis models: Application to the BASC-2 Behavioral and Emotional Screening System Teacher Form

Several psychological assessment instruments are based on the assumption of a general construct that is composed of multiple interrelated domains. Standard confirmatory factor analysis is often not well suited for examining the factor structure of such scales. This study used data from 1885 elementary school students (mean age = 8.77 years, SD = 1.47 years) to examine the factor structure of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2) Behavioral and Emotional Screening System (BESS) Teacher Form that was designed to assess general risk for emotional/behavioral difficulty among children. The modeling sequence included the relatively new exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) approach and bifactor models in addition to more standard techniques. Findings revealed that the factor structure of the BASC-2 BESS Teacher Form is multidimensional. Both ESEM and bifactor models showed good fit to the data. Bifactor models were preferred on conceptual grounds. Findings illuminate the hypothesis-generating power of ESEM and suggest that it might not be optimal for instruments designed to assess a predominant general factor underlying the data.     

Multilevel and Latent Variable Modeling with Composite Links and Exploded Likelihoods

Composite links and exploded likelihoods are powerful yet simple tools for specifying a wide range of latent variable models. Applications considered include survival or duration models, models for rankings, small area estimation with census information, models for ordinal responses, item response models with guessing, randomized response models, unfolding models, latent class models with random effects, multilevel latent class models, models with log-normal latent variables, and zero-inflated Poisson models with random effects. Some of the ideas are illustrated by estimating an unfolding model for attitudes to female work participation. We wish to thank The Research Council of Norway for a grant supporting our collaboration.     

A Comparison of ML,WLSMV, and Bayesian Methods for Multilevel Structural Equation Models in Small Samples: A Simulation Study

Multilevel structural equation models are increasingly applied in psychological research. With increasing model complexity, estimation becomes computationally demanding, and small sample sizes pose further challenges on estimation methods relying on asymptotic theory. Recent developments of Bayesian estimation techniques may help to overcome the shortcomings of classical estimation techniques. The use of potentially inaccurate prior information may, however, have detrimental effects, especially in small samples. The present Monte Carlo simulation study compares the statistical performance of classical estimation techniques with Bayesian estimation using different prior specifications for a two-level SEM with either continuous or ordinal indicators. Using two software programs (Mplus and Stan), differential effects of between- and within-level sample sizes on estimation accuracy were investigated. Moreover, it was tested to which extent inaccurate priors may have detrimental effects on parameter estimates in categorical indicator models. For continuous indicators, Bayesian estimation did not show performance advantages over ML. For categorical indicators, Bayesian estimation outperformed WLSMV solely in case of strongly informative accurate priors. Weakly informative inaccurate priors did not deteriorate performance of the Bayesian approach, while strong informative inaccurate priors led to severely biased estimates even with large sample sizes. With diffuse priors, Stan yielded better results than Mplus in terms of parameter estimates.     

Departure from normal assumptions: A promise for future psychometrics with substantive mathematical modeling

Normal assumptions have been used in many psychometric methods, to the extent that most researchers do not even question their adequacy. With the rapid advancement of computer technologies in recent years, psychometrics has extended its territory to include intensive cognitive diagnosis, etcetera, and substantive mathematical modeling ha become essential. As a natural consequence, it is time to consider departure from normal assumptions seriously. As examples of models which are not based on normality or its approximation, the logistic positive exponent family of models is discussed. These models include the item task complexity as the third parameter, which determines the single principle of ordering individuals on the ability scale.     

题目因素分析：基于SEM和基于IRT的两类方法

心理和教育测量一般只能达到顺序量表的水平,其测量数据与被测因子间并非简单线性关系。题目因素分析是用来描述测量题目与因子间非线性关系的统计模型。题目因素分析主要有基于结构方程模型和基于项目反应理论两类方法,两类方法之间存在紧密的联系,甚至可以看作是同一模型的两种表现形式。本文详细阐述了该关系,同时对两类方法在参数估计、模型拟合指标、测量一致性检验和支撑软件等方面的特点进行了分析和比较,以便研究者选择最为适合其研究的方法。     

Describing the elephant: Structure and function in multivariate data

There is a unity underlying the diversity of models for the analysis of multivariate data. Essentially, they constitute a family models, most generally nonlinear, for structural/functional relations between variables drawn from a behavior domain.     

An extension of the rating scale model with an application to the measurement of change

The polytomous unidimensional Rasch model with equidistant scoring, also known as the rating scale model, is extended in such a way that the item parameters are linearly decomposed into certain basic parameters. The extended model is denoted as the linear rating scale model (LRSM). A conditional maximum likelihood estimation procedure and a likelihood-ratio test of hypotheses within the framework of the LRSM are presented. Since the LRSM is a generalization of both the dichotomous Rasch model and the rating scale model, the present algorithm is suited for conditional maximum likelihood estimation in these submodels as well. The practicality of the conditional method is demonstrated by means of a dichotomous Rasch example with 100 items, of a rating scale example with 30 items and 5 categories, and in the light of an empirical application to the measurement of treatment effects in a clinical study.Work supported in part by the Fonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung under Grant No. P6414.