Robust Methods for Moderation Analysis with a Two-Level Regression Model

Moderation analysis has many applications in social sciences. Most widely used estimation methods for moderation analysis assume that errors are normally distributed and homoscedastic. When these assumptions are not met, the results from a classical moderation analysis can be misleading. For more reliable moderation analysis, this article proposes two robust methods with a two-level regression model when the predictors do not contain measurement error. One method is based on maximum likelihood with Student's t distribution and the other is based on M-estimators with Huber-type weights. An algorithm for obtaining the robust estimators is developed. Consistent estimates of standard errors of the robust estimators are provided. The robust approaches are compared against normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) with respect to power and accuracy of parameter estimates through a simulation study. Results show that the robust approaches outperform NML under various distributional conditions. Application of the robust methods is illustrated through a real data example. An R program is developed and documented to facilitate the application of the robust methods.     

Comparing dependent robust correlations

Let r₁ and r₂ be two dependent estimates of Pearson's correlation. There is a substantial literature on testing H₀ : ρ₁ = ρ₂, the hypothesis that the population correlation coefficients are equal. However, it is well known that Pearson's correlation is not robust. Even a single outlier can have a substantial impact on Pearson's correlation, resulting in a misleading understanding about the strength of the association among the bulk of the points. A way of mitigating this concern is to use a correlation coefficient that guards against outliers, many of which have been proposed. But apparently there are no results on how to compare dependent robust correlation coefficients when there is heteroscedasicity. Extant results suggest that a basic percentile bootstrap will perform reasonably well. This paper reports simulation results indicating the extent to which this is true when using Spearman's rho, a Winsorized correlation or a skipped correlation.     

Comparing Values and Methods in Psychodynamic and Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy: Commonalities and Differences

To determine the underlying values and methods in cognitive-behavioral and psychodynamic therapy and to address the implications of those values and methods for integrating the two therapies, the Process Value and Methods Survey was sent to members of The Association for Advancement of Behavior Therapy (cognitive-behavioral sample) and Division 39 of American Psychological Association (psychodynamic sample). Members were asked to endorse items based on their ideal understanding of their respective orientations. A Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of the combined samples yielded six components for values, of which four were significant according to orientation. A second PCA, for therapeutic methods, yielded six components, five of which were significant according to orientation. In both PCAs, components significant for an orientation were consistent with the corresponding constructs of that orientation. The relationship between method and value components as well as how value components may be related to clinical practice and psychotherapy integration is discussed.     

Moving in Parallel Toward a Modern Modeling Epistemology: Bayes Factors and Frequentist Modeling Methods

The Bayesian-frequentist debate typically portrays these statistical perspectives as opposing views. However, both Bayesian and frequentist statisticians have expanded their epistemological basis away from a singular focus on the null hypothesis, to a broader perspective involving the development and comparison of competing statistical/mathematical models. For frequentists, statistical developments such as structural equation modeling and multilevel modeling have facilitated this transition. For Bayesians, the Bayes factor has facilitated this transition. The Bayes factor is treated in articles within this issue of Multivariate Behavioral Research. The current presentation provides brief commentary on those articles and more extended discussion of the transition toward a modern modeling epistemology. In certain respects, Bayesians and frequentists share common goals.     

Pairwise comparisons of trimmed means for two or more groups

The paper takes up the problem of performing all pairwise comparisons amongJ independent groups based on 20% trimmed means. Currently, a method that stands out is the percentile-t bootstrap method where the bootstrap is used to estimate the quantiles of a Studentized maximum modulus distribution when all pairs of population trimmed means are equal. However, a concern is that in simulations, the actual probability of one or more Type I errors can drop well below the nominal level when sample sizes are small. A practical issue is whether a method can be found that corrects this problem while maintaining the positive features of the percentile-t bootstrap. Three new methods are considered here, one of which achieves the desired goal. Another method, which takes advantage of theoretical results by Singh (1998), performs almost as well but is not recommended when the smallest sample size drops below 15. In some situations, however, it gives substantially shorter confidence intervals.     

Comparing Paper-and-Pencil and Internet Survey Methods Conducted in a Combat-Deployed Environment

The Unit Behavioral Health Needs Assessment Survey (UBHNAS) is a tool used to aid behavioral health providers in assessing the needs of service members of a military unit. Traditionally, the survey has been administered by paper-and-pencil; however, implementing the survey via the Internet may be a faster and easier way to administer the survey. There are, however, potential drawbacks to Internet survey administration, and previous studies comparing the 2 methods have yielded inconsistent findings. Using a between-subjects design with a combat-deployed military sample, the present study compared the 2 survey administration methods. Specifically, we assessed comparability for (a) psychological constructs, (b) auxiliary measures (such as completion time, frequency of missing data, and length of written comments), and (c) ratings and perceptions of the UBHNAS, and preference in methodology. The method of survey administration did not predict differences in the psychological outcome variables. However, participants in the paper-and-pencil condition reported higher rates of comfort answering questions, belief that responses would remain anonymous, and frankness and honesty in answering questions. Nevertheless, participants in both conditions preferred to take the survey via the Internet as opposed to paper-and-pencil in the future. Finally, participants in the Internet condition completed the survey faster and tended to write longer comments, although in terms of the comments being informative, there was no difference between the groups. Based on our findings, we recommend the use of the Internet for administering the UBHNAS; however, we caution that there may be tradeoffs regarding concerns about comfort, honesty, and anonymity.     

Beyond inference by eye: Statistical and graphing practices in JEAB, 1992‐2017

Debates about the utility of p values and correct ways to analyze data have inspired new guidelines on statistical inference by the American Psychological Association (APA) and changes in the way results are reported in other scientific journals, but their impact on the Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior (JEAB) has not previously been evaluated. A content analysis of empirical articles published in JEAB between 1992 and 2017 investigated whether statistical and graphing practices changed during that time period. The likelihood that a JEAB article reported a null hypothesis significance test, included a confidence interval, or depicted at least one figure with error bars has increased over time. Features of graphs in JEAB, including the proportion depicting single‐subject data, have not changed systematically during the same period. Statistics and graphing trends in JEAB largely paralleled those in mainstream psychology journals, but there was no evidence that changes to APA style had any direct impact on JEAB. In the future, the onus will continue to be on authors, reviewers and editors to ensure that statistical and graphing practices in JEAB continue to evolve without interfering with characteristics that set the journal apart from other scientific journals.     

多级计分认知诊断计算机化自适应测验的新选题方法

认知诊断计算机化自适应测验（Cognitive Diagnosis Computerized Adaptive Testing, CD-CAT）是认知诊断评估和计算机化自适应测验两者的结合,兼具认知诊断和自适应测验的特点。目前,针对CD-CAT的研究几乎都集中在0-1二级计分的数据。然而,在教育和心理评估的实际应用中,存在大量的多级计分的数据。因此,本研究探讨了多级计分CD-CAT（Polytomous CD-CAT, PCD-CAT）的实现技术,并提出了2种新的选题方法。通过模拟实验比较了新选题方法和传统选题方法在PCD-CAT的效果,结果表明：在定长PCD-CAT条件下,2种新选题方法的模式分类准确率是最高的,而在非定长PCD-CAT条件下,2种新方法的测验效率也是最高的。     

Identifying Hypothesis Confirmation Behaviors in a Simulated Murder Investigation: Implications for Practice

Investigators have been shown to be prone to accessing information that confirms their preferred hypothesis. This tendency has been termed hypothesis confirmation. Hypothesis confirmation behaviour was explored in two studies using a computer administered simulation of a murder investigation. In Study 1, hypothesis confirmation behaviour did not differentiate successful and unsuccessful participants. However, unsuccessful participants stored more confirmatory information than non‐confirmatory information. Successful participants did not show this pattern. In Study 2, unsuccessful participants tended to settle early on a suspect and then acquired information that supported their decision. Successful participants tended to consider a number of suspects for longer and accessed a greater diversity of information. Taken together, these findings are highly suggestive of the role of information acquisition as an important component of hypothesis confirmatory behaviour, which is associated with unsuccessful information processing in the context of a simulated murder investigation. Implications for practice are presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新世纪20年国内假设检验及其关联问题的方法学研究

新世纪20年来国内假设检验方法学研究内容可分为如下几类: 零假设显著性检验的不足、p值的使用问题、心理学研究的可重复性问题、效应量、检验力、等效性检验、其他与假设检验关联的研究。零假设显著性检验已经发展成一套组合流程: 为了保证检验力和节省成本, 实验研究需要做先验检验力分析预估样本容量, 但问卷超过160人在传统统计中就没有必要这样做。当拒绝零假设时, 应当结合效应量做出结论。当不拒绝零假设时, 需要报告后验检验力; 如果效应量中或大而检验力不够高, 则可增加被试再行分析, 但这一过程应主动披露, 报告最后的实际p值并对可能犯的第一类错误率做出评估。     

Resampling-Based Inference Methods for Comparing Two Coefficients Alpha

The two-sample problem for Cronbach’s coefficient \(\alpha _C\), as an estimate of test or composite score reliability, has attracted little attention compared to the extensive treatment of the one-sample case. It is necessary to compare the reliability of a test for different subgroups, for different tests or the short and long forms of a test. In this paper, we study statistical procedures of comparing two coefficients \(\alpha _{C,1}\) and \(\alpha _{C,2}\). The null hypothesis of interest is \(H_0 : \alpha _{C,1} = \alpha _{C,2}\), which we test against one-or two-sided alternatives. For this purpose, resampling-based permutation and bootstrap tests are proposed for two-group multivariate non-normal models under the general asymptotically distribution-free (ADF) setting. These statistical tests ensure a better control of the type-I error, in finite or very small sample sizes, when the state-of-affairs ADF large-sample test may fail to properly attain the nominal significance level. By proper choice of a studentized test statistic, the resampling tests are modified in order to be valid asymptotically even in non-exchangeable data frameworks. Moreover, extensions of this approach to other designs and reliability measures are discussed as well. Finally, the usefulness of the proposed resampling-based testing strategies is demonstrated in an extensive simulation study and illustrated by real data applications.     

A multilevel framework for understanding relationships among traits,states, situations and behaviours

A conceptual and analytic framework for understanding relationships among traits, states, situations, and behaviours is presented. The framework assumes that such relationships can be understood in terms of four questions. (1) What are the relationships between trait and state level constructs, which include psychological states, the situations people experience and behaviour? (2) What are the relationships between psychological states, between states and situations and between states and behaviours? (3) How do such state level relationships vary as a function of trait level individual differences? (4) How do the relationships that are the focus of questions 1, 2, and 3 change across time? This article describes how to use multilevel random coefficient modelling (MRCM) to examine such relationships. The framework can accommodate different definitions of traits and dispositions (Allportian, processing styles, profiles, etc.) and different ways of conceptualising relationships between states and traits (aggregationist, interactionist, etc.). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

空间偏向成因研究:理论解释与前景展望

空间偏向意指人们在注意刺激物时普遍具有方向上的偏好.对其成因,目前主要存在“大脑说”和“文化说”两派观点.前者认为大脑的不对称性是决定因素,而后者则认为阅读和书写习惯等文化因素是主要成因.本文在综述空间偏向研究后指出,以上两派学说在解释力上各有得失,但并非完全对立,将二者结合起来的“大脑-文化说”才能更好地解释空间偏向现象.     

定长CD-CAT中两种新的题目曝光控制方法

提出了两种适用于定长CD-CAT的题目曝光控制方法（HIRP、HIRT）,这些方法在保证较高分类准确率的同时还有较合理的题目曝光率,新方法由二分化方法和RP及RT方法进行结合并适当调整而得到。模拟研究比较了其与RP、RT、SM、SMIE、RHA和SDBS的表现,结果表明: （1）HIRP的分类准确率和题目曝光率均好于SM、SMIE和SDBS;（2）HIRT的题目曝光率较RP、SM、SMIE、RHA和SDBS稍差,但分类准确率更高;（3）HIRP的分类准确率低于RT和RP,但题目曝光控制要更好。     

Misunderstandings and omissions in textbook accounts of effect sizes

There have been frequent attempts in psychology to reduce the reliance on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) as the criterion for establishing the importance of results. Many authorities now recommend the reporting of effect sizes (ESs) as a supplement or alternative to NHST. However, there is extensive specialist literature highlighting problems associated with the use and interpretation of ESs. A review of the coverage of ESs in over 100 textbooks on statistical analysis in behavioural science revealed widespread neglect of ESs and the relevant critical issues that have widespread coverage in the more specialist literature. For example, many textbooks claim that ESs should be interpreted as a simple measure of the practical real-world importance of a result despite the fact that ESs are profoundly influenced by features of design and analysis strategy. We seek to highlight areas of misunderstanding about ESs found in the pedagogical literature in the light of the more specialist literature and make recommendations to researchers for the appropriate use and interpretation of ESs. This is critical as statistics textbooks have a crucial role in the education of researchers.     

认知诊断计算机自适应测验中平衡属性收敛的新方法

提出两种认知诊断计算机自适应测验下平衡属性收敛的新方法（MABI、RTA）,模拟研究系统探讨和比较了此二者与已有方法（ABI、IABI和RABI）的表现。结果发现：（1）新方法较不考虑属性收敛的方法有更高的准确率以及更均衡的题目使用率;（2）新方法较ABI和RABI有稍低的准确性,但有更平衡的题目使用率;（3）新方法与IABI的准确性和题目使用率在不同选题策略下各有合优势。总之,两种新方法较好地兼顾测量准确性、题目使用率以及题库曝光情况。     

认知诊断计算机自适应测验中平衡属性收敛的新方法

提出两种认知诊断计算机自适应测验下平衡属性收敛的新方法（MABI、RTA）,模拟研究系统探讨和比较了此二者与已有方法（ABI、IABI和RABI）的表现。结果发现：（1）新方法较不考虑属性收敛的方法有更高的准确率以及更均衡的题目使用率;（2）新方法较ABI和RABI有稍低的准确性,但有更平衡的题目使用率;（3）新方法与IABI的准确性和题目使用率在不同选题策略下各有合优势。总之,两种新方法较好地兼顾测量准确性、题目使用率以及题库曝光情况。     

Specificity of Postural Control: Comparing Expert and Intermediate Dancers

The expert–novice approach is inappropriate for studying postural control in sport and dance when novices are completely unable to perform relevant postural tasks and experts cannot demonstrate specific skills on everyday postural tasks. We tested expertise-specific differences on 6 static everyday and 5 dynamic dance-like postural tasks of varying difficulty in 13 professional and 12 intermediate nonprofessional dancers. Results showed a clear expert advantage on sway area for dance-like postural tasks, but not for static everyday tasks. This effect was also found for the control parameter of root mean square (RMS) velocity and partly for RMS amplitude of the difference signal between CoP and CoG line location. Results indicate that the expert advantage is task-specific and deliver new insights into the specificity of experts' postural performance.     

Statistical consistency and hypothesis testing for nonmetric multidimensional scaling

The properties of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) are explored by specifying statistical models, proving statistical consistency, and developing hypothesis testing procedures. Statistical models with errors in the dependent and independent variables are described for quantitative and qualitative data. For these models, statistical consistency often depends crucially upon how error enters the model and how data are collected and summarized (e.g., by means, medians, or rank statistics). A maximum likelihood estimator for NMDS is developed, and its relationship to the standard Shepard-Kruskal estimation method is described. This maximum likelihood framework is used to develop a method for testing the overall fit of the model.     

平均数差异显著性检验统计检验力和效果大小的估计原理与方法

该文以平均数差异显著性检验为例,对实验数据进行假设检验后,继续对其统计检验力和效果大小进行估计的基本原理和方法作一介绍。