重思中国的人口新政策:与日韩低生育率和人口老龄化比较

自今年起,继施行了35年的独生子女政策后,中国开始实行了一个新的人口政策。这篇文章以日本及韩国的低出生率和人口老龄化问题为基础,提出了中国新"二孩"政策的影响。同处东亚的日本,韩国和中国具有社会文化共通性,且在不同时期也经历过低出生率及人口老龄化问题。许多专家指出,中国的"计划生育"的确在很大程度上降低了人口出生率,但是独生子女政策在减少人口出生率的同时对社会经济造成了一定的负面影响。从中国限制人口增长政策和日本、韩国并不成功的人口增长方案中汲取经验,本文提出,中国应实施"二孩"政策,甚至完全开放的生育政策来取代之前的人口政策。     

对低生育率水平与人口安全的思考

向低生育率水平迈进是世界人口发展大趋势。中国人口生育率已经步入低水平行列,而且还在缓慢下降并趋于稳定。低生育率是一把“双刃剑”,长期维持过低生育水平的结果,不但是人口结构的极端异化,而且将最终导致国家和民族的消亡。人口过程是长周期事件,认识和解决人口问题要有足够的提前量。     

中国近年来的生育水平估计

本研究利用人口普查数据和广义稳定人口模型,对我国2000-2010年普查间的平均生育水平进行了估计;同时,利用户籍统计数据,对2008-2014年的生育水平进行了估计。总体的结论是我国近期的生育水平不低于1.5,而近年来在1.6左右,且有上升趋势。虽然我国开始全面实施一对夫妇可生育两个孩子政策,但是生育政策调整的影响和效果在很大程度上取决于生育水平的高低。在目前的生育水平条件下,全面二孩政策的效果可能是有限的。另外,从估计的生育水平和趋势看,低生育率陷阱的判断还缺乏说服力。     

2000年以来中国生育水平评估

党的十八届三中全会《决定》作出的启动实施单独二孩的生育政策,是促进人口长期均衡发展的重大生育政策调整决策。而生育政策调整的影响取决于生育水平有多低和生育政策是否仍然可以有效调节生育行为。本研究利用普查数据、教育数据和公安数据,对我国2000年以来的生育水平及变化趋势进行了评估。综合各种评估进行判断,前期的生育率低至1.5,而近年来的生育率有所回升,接近1.7。考虑到本研究的假设,这可能是较高的估计。结合我国目前的生育意愿为1.9个孩子,可以认为,我国的生育水平尚处于较为适度的低水平,生育政策仍然在调控生育水平中发挥着重要作用。     

1982-2007年我国人口老龄化原因的人口学因素分解

1980年代以来我国人口老龄化水平持续快速升高.采用假设模拟方法再现1982-2007年人口发展进程,考察相关人口学变量对人口老龄化的影响,结论是:生育率下降对老龄化水平升高的贡献率为27.11%,平均预期寿命延长的贡献率为18.67%,人口惯性作用的贡献率为56.06%.     

生男偏重对农村生育水平的影响

生男偏重仍是当前中国农民生育心态的典型特征,是农民多胎生育的主要动机,影响着农村生育水平。均衡生男偏重,需要在继续加强和推行计划生育的同时,采取一些补偿或优惠措施     

从分化到趋同——世界生育率转变及对中国的启示

本文考察了世界与中国开始进入生育率转变以来区域生育率差异的变化及其特点.结果发现:世界各国与中国内部各省份生育率之间的差异经历了一个由小变大、又由大变小的过程.引致区域人口问题出现的原因正由以往分化时的多元向趋同时的一元转变,目前中国生育率的区域差异要小于生育政策的区域差异,中国较严格生育政策地区在付出更多的经济、政治、社会与文化成本后所换来的却是与生育政策较宽松地区相近的生育结果,这表明生育率有其自身的变动规律,并不完全取决于生育政策的具体规定,同时也意味着调整现行生育政策、普遍允许一对夫妇生育两个孩子、尽快使全国区域生育政策趋干统一的条件已经完全具备.     

元认知与5大人格因素的相关研究

１．前言１．１元认知及其研究最早提出元认知概念的是心理学家弗莱维尔（Ｆｌａｖｅｌ　Ｊ．Ｈ）。他认为,元认知就是对认知的认知,它包括元认知知识、元认知体验和元认知监控三种成分。元认知知识是个体有关认知活动系统的知识;元认知体验是伴随认知活动而产生的认知体验和情感体验;元认知监控是主体在进行认知活动的全过程中,将自己正在进行的认知活动作为意识对象,不断地对其进行积极、自觉的监察、控制和调节。元认知实质上是人对认知括动的解悟和反思,是自我意识在认知活动中的体现,是认知主体对其认知活动的自我意识和自我调…     

中国古代生育心理思想研究

从生育动机、生育目的、生育意愿和新生人口心理素质的遗传等问题探讨了中国古代生育心理思想．揭示出古代社会居于主导地位的生育动机、生育目的和相互对立的生育意愿;分析了它们对今天人口控制的影响;概括并评价了古代关于新生人口的心理素质遗传性的理论。     

相关利益人对医疗救助的认识研究

为了解相关利益人对医疗救助的认识和评价,于2008年7月对宁夏和山东的6个县进行了机构访谈和家庭问卷调查.结果表明,卫生部门和财政部门对医疗救助不很了解,相关部门管理者对医疗救助的看法不一致;农村居民对提供医疗救助的机构和医疗救助的政策内容知晓率非常低.因此,要完善医疗救助管理平台,加大医疗救助政策宣传力度,从而提高医疗救助管理效率和促进医疗救助的有效需求.     

Savings and fertility: ethical issues

... Population ethics is rightly regarded a difficult field of inquiry. Here I have tried to argue that the kinds of difficulty that have intrigued philosophers in recent years are insubstantial. Real difficulties lie elsewhere. They lie in deep conceptual problems actual people are faced with when they contemplate the desirable size of their family and the savings that should accompany it.     

Ethical issues related to the artificial heart

This paper is a general survey of ethical issues related to the artificial heart. It begins by looking at the history of funding of the artificial heart program through the National Institute of Health in 1965. Attention is paid to the problem of the lack of planning related to social, ethical, economic, and legal implications. The paper then deals with three areas of ethical concerns. They are those issues relating to the experimental versus therapeutic benefits, the cost, and public involvement with a private interest.     

Public health issues related to infection in pregnancy and cerebral palsy

Cerebral palsy is the most common neuromotor developmental disability of childhood, affecting as many as 8,000 to 12,000 children born in the U.S. each year (corresponding to a prevalence rate of between 2 and 3 per 1000 children). Recent improvements in neonatal care have not resulted in a decline in the overall prevalence of cerebral palsy and, in fact, greater numbers of very preterm/very low birth weight infants are surviving with cerebral palsy and other developmental problems. Infection in pregnancy may be an important cause of the disorder. In preterm infants, there appears to be about a 2-fold increased risk for cerebral palsy from chorioamnionitis, and in term infants the estimated increased risk is about 4-fold. Provisionally, chorioamnionitis might account for 12% of spastic cerebral palsy in term infants and 28% of cerebral palsy in preterm infants. Studies of biochemical markers of fetal inflammation typically associated with infection also suggest that an inflammatory response may be an important independent etiologic factor. If a substantial proportion of cerebral palsy is attributable to acute amnionitis infection and/or neonatal sepsis, cerebral palsy should have decreased in the United States after administration of intrapartum antibiotics became widespread in response to publication of public health consensus guidelines for Group B streptococcus in 1996. However, failure to detect declines could have a number of explanations and these explanations illustrate the many public health challenges related to intrauterine infection and cerebral palsy. Given the gaps in our current knowledge about intrauterine infection and cerebral palsy, public health recommendations for timely and specific prevention activities are limited at this time.     

孔子与《易传》相关问题覆议(续)

三、孔门传易说 到了汉代，则孔门传《易》言之凿凿，自孔子以下，代代相传至于汉初，便有了清清楚楚的传授名单。但即就这份名单来看，《史记》和《汉书》也互有异同。《史记·仲尼弟子列传》所说的传授系统是这样的： 孔子→（鲁）商瞿→（楚）肝臂子弘→（江东）骄子庸疵→（燕）周子家竖→（淳于）光 子乘羽→（齐）田子庄何→（东武）王子中同→（ 川）杨何而《汉书·儒林传》的系统则约略如下： 孔子→（鲁）商瞿子木→（鲁）桥庇子庸→（江东） 臂子弓→（燕）周丑子家→（东 武）孙虞子乘→（齐）田何子装→ （东武）王同子中一（畜…     

孔子与《易传》相关问题覆议

孔子赞<易>,作<十翼>,自<史><汉>以来,学者习承其说.下逮北宋,始有疑其说之不足恃者;嗣后绍述,代不乏人.民初疑古学风盛兴,疑者益众;然笃信旧说者亦未灭迹.近年大陆地下考古发掘出土文物,其盛迈逾前代,尤如马王堆帛本<易>经、传之面世,于传世文献外增加不少可供参考之资料,引起海内外<易>学研究者的热烈讨论.然而对于孔门传<易>此一近千年以来争讼不休的论题,事实上并未因出土文献而得以论定.近年海峡两岸学者论及此题,即有据新出土文物以坚旧说者;亦有因之而作其他推论以修正新说者.本文即就此一问题,综合传世文献与新出资料重作检讨,提出个人浅见,虽不足以尽释群疑,然于若干相关问题,庶或可得相当的厘清.     

Clinical interventions in parent-infant groups around issues related to separation-individuation

Parent-child groups as an educational method in a general hospital setting provide support for parents and an environment in which they can discuss their questions about their child's development. This paper illustrates the clinical use of parent-child groups as a means of early intervention in problems that become apparent during the Separation-Individuation stages of development. We present two case studies of mother-child pairs, who have been members of the group for 2 years. The first case is a bi-racial child whose mother is struggling to deal with the child's rapprochement stage behavior. Through the oral and anal stages, conflict has grown in their relationship due to the mother's way of viewing her child, as well as her own unresolved adolescent separation difficulties. The second case is an overprotective mother whose own pathology prevented her daughter from resolving her rapprochement crisis. Interventions by the leaders as well as the group's educational method help both mother-child pairs to resolve interpersonal conflict and to continue their essentially normal development.     

Effort in isometric muscular contractions related to force level and duration

The degree of perceived force involved in squeezing a handgrip dynamometer is shown to grow as a power function of the force of isometric contraction and also as a power function of the duration of the squeeze. The exponent for force turns out to be more than twice that for duration. These two power functions are able to predict measurements of muscle endurance, i.e., of the maximum length of time that contraction of any constant level of force can be sustained.