Estimating the probability and fidelity of memory

Research on memory may benefit from paradigms that permit graded characterization of memory performance, but a simple variance-based approach to the analysis of such graded data confounds two potential sources of error: the probability of memory and the fidelity of memory. Such data are more properly modeled by a mixture distribution, thereby permitting explicit estimation of both the probability and fidelity of memory. An expectation-maximization algorithm is presented for fitting such data to a mixture model, and Monte Carlo validation of this tool reveals circumstances under which it may be expected to be most effective. Limitations of the tool are outlined with respect to potential confounds in experiment design and interpretation of results. Finally, approaches to ameliorating such confounds are discussed. An R procedure for fitting response error data to mixture models may be downloaded from http://brm.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.     

Estimating the frequency of everyday events

In two experiments, subjects recorded the frequency of occurrence of 12 classes of events each week for 3 months. During a final test they estimated frequency of occurrence of events either under time restrictions (Experiment 1) or difference priming instructions (Experiment 2). They also made (metamemory) estimates of the accuracy of their estimates. Time restrictions during an initial estimate did not affect the accuracy of frequency or metamemory estimation but a second estimate did increase accuracy. Priming instructions affected accuracy of metamemory estimates as well as the accuracy of estimates for high-frequency events. Metamemory error increased with event frequency.     

Estimating the frequency of events from unnatural categories

We report two experiments about how people estimate the frequency of event properties when they are explicitly (e.g, spinach-GREEN) and implicitly (e.g, spinach) presented. In Experiment 1, verbal reports indicated that, for explicitly presented properties, participants used several retrieval- and impression-based strategies and were relatively accurate. Implicitly presented properties led to off-target retrieval, which brought to mind more instances of nontarget than of target properties and degraded estimates. A third group estimated the frequency of taxonomic categories (e.g., furniture) much as the explicit property group did, suggesting that people can use properties to organize remembered events. In a second experiment, estimation time patterns underscored the results of Experiment 1 and eliminated reactive verbal reports as an explanation. Off-target retrieval was both ineffective and slow.     

共患难,更同盟:共同经历相同负性情绪事件促进合作行为

4项实验探讨了共同经历相同负性情绪事件,相比单独经历负性情绪事件,是否以及如何促进了个体间的合作。实验1~3分别采用抽奖任务和瑞文推理测验任务操纵负性情绪事件,采用公共物品博弈任务测量合作行为,结果表明,共同经历相同负性情绪事件,相比单独经历负性情绪事件,促进了个体间的合作行为。实验2通过测量归属需要、社会联结和内群体认同,实验3通过操纵归属需要,来考察共同经历相同负性情绪事件促进合作行为的潜在机制,结果表明,共同经历者之间的合作行为受归属需要的驱动,而社会联结和内群体认同不足以对该现象进行解释。实验4通过操纵个体共同经历“相同”和“不同”的负性情绪事件,进一步厘清了,促进个体间的合作是由于“共同经历相同的负性情绪事件”而非“共同经历负性情绪”造成的。研究结果有利于解释小群体的形成,对群体和社会管理亦具有借鉴意义。     

Ruminative self-focus, negative life events, and negative affect

Ruminative thinking is believed to exacerbate the psychological distress that follows stressful life events. An experience-sampling study was conducted in which participants recorded negative life events, ruminative self-focus, and negative affect eight times daily over one week. Occasions when participants reported a negative event were marked by higher levels of negative affect. Additionally, negative events were prospectively associated with higher levels of negative affect at the next sampling occasion, and this relationship was partially mediated by momentary ruminative self-focus. Depressive symptoms were associated with more frequent negative events, but not with increased reactivity to negative events. Trait rumination was associated with reports of more severe negative events and increased reactivity to negative events. These results suggest that the extent to which a person engages in ruminative self-focus after everyday stressors is an important determinant of the degree of distress experienced after such events. Further, dispositional measures of rumination predict mood reactivity to everyday stressors in a non-clinical sample.     

Memories of positive and negative emotional events

Women's memories of emotional events differing by both valence and intensity were examined for differences in narrative content and structure, as well as subjective memory ratings. Emotional valence was related to the content of the women's narratives, and emotional intensity was related to the subjective ratings of the memories. Negative narratives contained more negative emotion, cognitive processing words, and passive sentences than positive narratives, and positive narratives contained more positive emotion words and were more complex than negative narratives. Intensely negative narratives were the longest and the least complex, and intensely positive narratives were the most coherent. Women rated both intensely negative and intensely positive events, in general, as more frequently talked/thought about, significant, unique, emotional, and vivid than moderately emotional events, and negative events were rated as more emotional than positive narratives. There was little relation between the objective content of the narratives and the women's subjective ratings of their memory experiences. Finally, researcher‐defined traumatic events did not differ from other intensely negative events. The results of this study have important implications for narrative research in general, methodological issues such as the validity of text analysis programs and subjective memory ratings, and the quality of traumatic memories. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Functions of parent-child reminiscing about emotionally negative events

Parent-child reminiscing about negative experiences influences children's developing "emotional self-concept", which comprises three interrelated functions: self-defining (this is the kind of emotional person I am), self-in-relation (this is how I express and share my emotions with others), and coping (this is how I cope with and resolve negative emotion). In this study, we examined how 70 mostly white, middle-class mothers discuss three negative experiences (fear, anger, and sadness) with their 4-year-old children. Conversations about fear elaborate on the facts of the event and emotional resolutions, thus focusing on coping. Conversations about sadness contain evaluative feedback and emotional resolutions, thus focusing on self-in-relation and coping. Finally, conversations about anger highlight the emotional state itself, thus focusing on self-definition. Mothers are also more elaborative and more evaluative with daughters than with sons, and place emotional events in a more interpersonal context with daughters than sons. Thus girls may be forming a more elaborated and more interpersonal emotional self-concept than boys.     

Personality moderates the interaction between positive and negative daily events predicting negative affect and stress

A 30-day diary study examined personality moderators (neuroticism and extraversion) of the interaction between positive and negative daily events predicting daily negative affect and night-time stress. Multilevel analyses revealed positive daily events buffered the effect of negative daily events on negative affect for individuals low in neuroticism and individuals high in extraversion, but not for individuals high in neuroticism or individuals low in extraversion. Positive daily events also buffered the effect of negative daily events on that night’s stress, but only for participants low in neuroticism. As such, this research linked today’s events to tonight’s stressfulness. This study advances our understanding of how neuroticism and extraversion influence within-person associations between positive and negative events predicting negative affect and stress.     

The effect of foregone payoffs on underweighting small probability events

Foregone payoffs add information about the outcomes for alternatives that are not chosen. The present paper examines the effect of foregone payoffs on underweighting rare but possible events in repeated choice tasks. Previous studies have not demonstrated any long‐lasting effects of foregone payoffs (following repeated presentation of a task) when foregone payoffs do not add much information. The present paper highlights the conditions and the contributing factors for the occurrence of such long‐lasting effects. An experimental study compares the effect of foregone payoffs under different degrees of rarity of the negative payoff. It is demonstrated that foregone payoffs increase the selection from risky alternatives with extremely rare and highly negative outcomes, and that this effect does not diminish with repeated presentation of the task. These findings can be summarized using a surprisingly simple reinforcement‐learning model. The findings are discussed in the context of the potential long‐term effect of social learning. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Studies in subjective probability l: Prediction of random events

When students are asked to predict the outcome of a random event, where all alternatives are equally probable (lotteries), they tend to choose central, "representative" values, and avoid extreme ones. In ten informal experiments, it is shown how this pattern of choices is influenced by various procedural and structural changes in the basic task. The results show that guessing behavior can be described as a kind of absolute judgment, subject to grouping, anchoring and context effects. Of the two general prediction heuristics originally proposed by Kahneman & Tversky (1973), "representativeness" applies better than "availability". In fact, a major strategy of guessing is apparently to eschew numbers with prominent, "non-random" properties, which at the same time are highly available to the subjects.     

Crisis decision theory: decisions in the face of negative events

How do people respond to negative life events? Crisis decision theory combines the strengths of coping theories with research on decision making to predict the responses people choose under negative circumstances. The theory integrates literatures on coping, health behavior, and decision making, among others, into 3 stages that describe the process of responding to negative events: (a) assessing the severity of the negative event, (b) determining response options, and (c) evaluating response options. The author reviews and organizes the relevant research on factors that shape information processing at each stage and that ultimately predict decisions in the face of negative events. Finally, the author presents a critique of crisis decision theory and discusses areas for future research.     

Development and validation of the counterfactual thinking for negative events scale

We examined the psychometric properties of the newly created Counterfactual Thinking for Negative Events Scale (CTNES) in two studies involving university undergraduates. In Study 1 (N = 634), factor analysis revealed four subscales that correspond with various types of counterfactual thinking: Nonreferent Downward, Other-Referent Upward, Self-Referent Upward, and Nonreferent Upward. The subscales were largely orthogonal and had adequate internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The CTNES subscales were positively correlated with a traditional method of assessing counterfactual thinking and were related as expected to contextual aspects of the negative event, negative affect, and cognitive style. In Study 2 (N = 208), we further examined the validity of the scale and demonstrated that the subscales were sensitive to an experimental manipulation concerning the type of negative event participants recalled. Moreover, the CTNES subscales correlated in the expected direction with measures of coping and cognitive style.     

Asymmetrical effects of positive and negative events: the mobilization-minimization hypothesis

Negative (adverse or threatening) events evoke strong and rapid physiological, cognitive, emotional, and social responses. This mobilization of the organism is followed by physiological, cognitive, and behavioral responses that damp down, minimize, and even erase the impact of that event. This pattern of mobilization-minimization appears to be greater for negative events than for neutral or positive events. Theoretical accounts of this response pattern are reviewed. It is concluded that no single theoretical mechanism can explain the mobilization-minimization pattern, but that a family of integrated process models, encompassing different classes of responses, may account for this pattern of parallel but disparately caused effects.     

Positive and negative cue redundancy in multiple cue probability learning

In two separate experiments, 80 introductory psychology students completed a two-cue probability learning task in which cue intercorrelation was positive or negative and cue validities were positive or negative. Results indicated that Ss did not learn the negative validity tasks. In addition, there were no significant differences between groups in achievement due to cue intercorrelation within any one experiment. However, the positive redundancy groups were significantly more consistent in the employment of their decision strategy than the negative redundancy groups when cue validities were positive. The negative redundancy groups were superior to positive redundancy groups in matching; again, when cue validities were positive.     

Fallacies in probability judgments for conjunctions and disjunctions of everyday events

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge a conjunction B‐and‐A as more probable than a constituent B, contrary to probability theory's ‘conjunction rule’ that a conjunction cannot be more probable than either constituent. Many studies have demonstrated this fallacy in people's reasoning about various experimental materials. Gigerenzer objects that from a ‘frequentist’ standpoint probability theory is not valid for these materials, and so failure to follow the conjunction rule is not a fallacy. This paper describes three experiments showing that the conjunction fallacy occurs as consistently for conjunctions where frequentist probability theory is valid (conjunctions of everyday weather events) as for other conjunctions. These experiments also demonstrate a reliable correlation between the occurrence of the conjunction fallacy and the disjunction fallacy (which arises when a disjunction B‐or‐A is judged less probable than a constituent B). This supports a probability theory + random variation account of probabilistic reasoning. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The buffering role of sportsmanship on the effects of daily negative events

Affective events theory (AET) argues that everyday negative events are likely to lower both daily work engagement and momentary positive affect. These problems can then persist on subsequent days. However, AET also argues that individual strategies can diminish the ill effects of negative events. We explicitly focused on good sportsmanship or abstaining from unnecessary complaints and criticism as a possible moderator of the effects of daily negative work events on daily work engagement and positive affect. We tested this possibility with a 3-day diary study among 112 employees. As expected, we found that daily negative events lowered daily engagement and momentary positive affect for two consecutive days. However, this effect only held on days that people exhibited low sportsmanship. For days that people exhibited high sportsmanship, there were no significant effects. Creating a resource rich work environment that enhances individuals’ sportsmanship behaviour can help to minimize the unfavourable impact of daily negative events.     

Depression history, depression vulnerability and the experience of everyday negative events

This study examined whether deficits in dealing with daily problems emerge before a depressive episode (i.e., pre-existing vulnerability) or after a depressive episode (i.e., psychosocial scar). Participants completed a 30-day daily diary in which they reported their most negative event of the day, their appraisals of that event, and their mood. Three years later, they completed a structured depression interview. The sample consisted of 350 college students, 24 of whom had a past history of depression and 54 of whom experienced a depressive episode subsequent to dairy completion. Multilevel modeling revealed that students with past depression blamed others more than the never-depressed and those with subsequent depression, which supported the scar hypothesis. In support of the vulnerability hypothesis, as compared to the never-depressed group, participants with past depression demonstrated steeper declines in positive mood on more stressful days but did not significantly differ from the subsequent depression group. Overall, our findings do not provide clear support for either hypothesis; however, this study is the first to use a daily diary design to directly compare individuals with past depression to individuals who would subsequently experience depression.