Default Bayes Factors for Model Selection in Regression

In this article, we present a Bayes factor solution for inference in multiple regression. Bayes factors are principled measures of the relative evidence from data for various models or positions, including models that embed null hypotheses. In this regard, they may be used to state positive evidence for a lack of an effect, which is not possible in conventional significance testing. One obstacle to the adoption of Bayes factor in psychological science is a lack of guidance and software. Recently, Liang, Paulo, Molina, Clyde, and Berger (2008) Liang, F., Paulo, R., Molina, G., Clyde, M. A. and Berger, J. O. 2008. Mixtures of g-priors for {B}ayesian variable selection. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103: 410–423. Retrieved from http://pubs.amstat.org/doi/pdf/10.1198/016214507000001337[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] developed computationally attractive default Bayes factors for multiple regression designs. We provide a web applet for convenient computation and guidance and context for use of these priors. We discuss the interpretation and advantages of the advocated Bayes factor evidence measures.     

Medical Marijuana Regulation in Michigan: Problems of Legitimacy

Since the initiation of the Michigan Medical Marihuana Act (MMMA) in 2008 State of Michigan . 2008 . “Michigan Medical Marihuana Act.” Initiated Act 1 of 2008. Retrieved June 5, 2012 (www.legislature.mi.gov)  [Google Scholar], several issues relevant to the study of sociology of law and deviant behavior have emerged. I analyzed the administration of the MMMA using a case study method and interpret the initial social issues developing from this law by focusing on legitimacy. Due to a contradictory system where the MMMA is at odds with the Schedule I categorization of marijuana at the federal and state levels, the legitimacy of both the administration of the MMMA and the administration of marijuana law more generally are threatened. This lack of legitimacy in turn leads to a situation of “Pyrrhic Defeat” where failure to gain legal compliance maintains the inertia of marijuana prohibition.     

The spiritual wellness of Beyers Naudé: A psychobiographical study of a South African anti-apartheid theologian

The study explores and describes Beyers Naudé's (1915–2004) spiritual wellness across his lifespan. Naudé's life history was uncovered through the systematic collection and analyses of life history materials. Data were interpreted applying the Wheel of Wellness model (WoW) by Sweeney and Witmer (1991 Sweeney, T. J., & Witmer, J. M. (1991). Beyond social interest: Striving toward optimum health and wellness. Journal of Individual Psychology, 47(4), 527–540. Retrieved from http://www.utexas.edu/utpress/journals/jip.html [Google Scholar], 1992). Findings suggest that spirituality, as the major life task of the WoW, characterised Naudé's earlier years and also epitomised his later years. Underlying life-span and life-space influences included important life-forces such as the roles of the community, religion, government and politics in his life. Hope and optimism embodied Naudé's belief about promoting and preserving human dignity, human rights and respect for life.     

Knowledge-How and Epistemic Value

A conspicuous oversight in recent debates about the vexed problem of the value of knowledge has been the value of knowledge-how. This would not be surprising if knowledge-how were, as Gilbert Ryle [1945, 1949 Ryle, Gilbert 1949. The Concept of Mind, London: Hutchinson's University Library.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]] famously thought, fundamentally different from knowledge-that. However, reductive intellectualists [e.g. Stanley and Williamson 2001 Ryle, Gilbert 1949. The Concept of Mind, London: Hutchinson's University Library.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Brogaard 2008, 2009 Brogaard, Berit 2009. What Mary Did Yesterday: Reflections on Knowledge-Wh, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 78/2: 439–67.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2011 Brogaard, Berit 2011. Knowledge-How: A Unified Account, in Knowing How: Essays on Knowledge, Mind, and Action, ed. John Bengson and Marc A. Moffett, New York: Oxford University Press: 136–60. [Google Scholar]; Stanley 2011a Stanley, Jason 2011a. Knowing (How), Noûs 45/2: 207–38.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2011b Stanley, Jason 2011b. Know How, Oxford: Oxford University Press.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]] maintain that knowledge-how just is a kind of knowledge-that. Accordingly, reductive intellectualists must predict that the value problems facing propositional knowledge will equally apply to knowledge-how. We show, however, that this is not the case. Accordingly, we highlight a value-driven argument for thinking (contra reductive intellectualism) that knowledge-how and knowledge-that come apart.     

Leverage Points,Paradigms, and Grounded Action: Intervening in Educational Systems

This article discusses connections between grounded action, leverage points, and paradigm transformation and transcendence. Part one provides background on Meadows' (1999) Meadows, D. H. 1999. Leverage points: Places to intervene in a system, The Sustainability Institute. www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/pubs/Leverage_Points.pdf (Accessed 22 June, 2006) [Google Scholar] approach to leverage points as well as the concept of paradigms. Part two argues that grounded action is inherently suited for leverage points analysis and paradigm-based interventions. Part three offers an example of individual paradigm transformation in the educational context vis-à-vis Olson's (2006) Olson, M. M. 2006. Driven Succeeding—The serpentine path of adult learning: A grounded action study in adult education, Ed.D. dissertation Fielding Graduate University.  [Google Scholar] grounded theory of driven succeeding. The article concludes with considerations of how the application of grounded action in one classroom might leverage system-wide paradigm transformation.     

The Development and Validation of Brief and Ultrabrief Measures of Values

Values are a central personality construct and the importance of studying them has been well established. To encourage researchers to integrate measures of values into their studies, brief and ultrabrief instruments were developed to recapture the 10 values measured by the 40-item Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ; Schwartz, 2003 Schwartz, S. H. (2003). A proposal for measuring value orientations across nations. In Questionnaire development report of the European Social Survey (pp. 259–319). Retrieved from http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/index.php?option=com_docman&;task=doc_view&;gid=126&;Itemid=80 [Google Scholar]). Rigorous psychometric procedures based on separate derivation (N = 38,049) and evaluation (N = 29,143) samples yielded 10- and 20-item measures of values, which proved to be successful at capturing the patterns and magnitude of correlations associated with the original PVQ. These instruments should be useful to researchers who would like to incorporate a values scale into their study but do not have the space to administer a longer measure.     

Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data

With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, &; Dube, 2011 Lu, J., Huet, C., &; Dubé, L. (2011). Emotional reinforcement as a protective factor for healthy eating in home settings. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 94(1), 254–261. http://dx.doi.org/10.3945/ajcn.110.006361[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden (“general” emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters.     

Appraisal of Suicidal Risk Among Adolescents and Young Adults Through the Rorschach Test

The aims of this study are to investigate suicidal behaviors among adolescents and young adults and to test an index composed using Rorschach test responses related to an increased risk of suicide. Using a cross-sectional design, 4 groups were studied (according to criteria of the Columbia Classification Algorithm of Suicide Assessment [Posner, Oquendo, Gould, Stanley, &; Davies, 2007 Rierdan, J. 1978. Suicide and transparency responses on the Rorschach: A replication. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 46: 1162–1163.  [Google Scholar]]): A group with suicidal ideation (n = 30), a group with parasuicidal behavior (n = 30), a group with near-lethal suicide attempts (n = 26), and a control group (n = 30). Responses to the Rorschach test yielded 6 potential indicators of suicidal behavior (scored according to Exner's Comprehensive System and the Suicidal Index for Adolescents; Silberg &; Armstrong, 1992 Stengel, E. 1975. Suicide and attempted suicide , 2nd ed., New York, NY: Aronson.  [Google Scholar]). Rorschach scores including at least 4 of these 6 indicators selected 69% of the people who had committed serious suicide attempts. The Rorschach Suicidal Index reached an acceptable reliability and was related to other criteria of suicide risk, such as the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI; Beck, Ward, Mendelsohn, Mock, &; Erbaugh, 1961 Beck, A. T., Ward, C. H., Mendelsohn, M., Mock, J. and Erbaugh, J. 1961. An inventory for measuring depression. Archives of General Psychiatry, 4: 561–571. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Linehan Reasons for Living Inventory (RFL–I; Linehan, Goodstein, Nielsen, &; Chiles, 1983 Menninger, K. 1938. Man against himself, New York, NY: Harcourt. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Moreover, the Rorschach Suicidal Index showed incremental validity over the BDI and the RFL–I to predict suicidal behavior. A path analysis additionally showed that low social support was an important mediator between the Rorschach Suicidal Index and the number of suicide attempts committed by participants.     

Calibrated Bayes Factors Should Not Be Used: A Reply to Hoijtink,van Kooten,and Hulsker

Hoijtink, Kooten, and Hulsker (2016 Hoijtink, H., van Kooten, P., &; Hulsker, K. (2016). Why Bayesian psychologists should change the way they use the Bayes factor. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 51, 1--9. doi: 10.1080/00273171.2014.969364.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) present a method for choosing the prior distribution for an analysis with Bayes factor that is based on controlling error rates, which they advocate as an alternative to our more subjective methods (Morey &; Rouder, 2014 Morey, R.D., &; Rouder, J.N. (2014). Bayesfactor: Computation of Bayes factors for common designs. R package version 0.9.9. Retrieved from http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BayesFactor [Google Scholar]; Rouder, Speckman, Sun, Morey, &; Iverson, 2009 Rouder, J.N., Speckman, P.L., Sun, D., Morey, R.D., &; Iverson, G. (2009). Bayesian t-tests for accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 16, 225–237. doi: 10.3758/PBR.16.2.225[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, &; van der Maas, 2011 Wagenmakers, E.-J., Wetzels, R., Borsboom, D., &; van der Maas, H. (2011). Why psychologists must change the way they analyze their data: The case of psi. A comment on Bem (2011). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 426–432. doi: 10.1037/a0022790[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We show that the method they advocate amounts to a simple significance test, and that the resulting Bayes factors are not interpretable. Additionally, their method fails in common circumstances, and has the potential to yield arbitrarily high Type II error rates. After critiquing their method, we outline the position on subjectivity that underlies our advocacy of Bayes factors.     

Model of Occupational Empowerment and Gunnarsson’s Tree Theme: Intervention for Mothers in Recovery

In this study the authors investigated Gunnarsson's Tree Theme Method as an occupational therapy intervention program for mothers in recovery from addiction in accordance with Fisher and Hotchkiss's Model of Occupational Empowerment (2008 Fisher , G. , &; Hotchkiss , A. ( 2008 ). A model of occupational empowerment for marginalized populations in community environments . Occupational Therapy in Health Care , 22 , 55 – 71 . Retrieved from EBSCOhost .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Each session of this mixed design study consisted of relaxation exercises, discussions on self-help readings, and participation in the Tree Theme Method. Two participants out of three improved their personal growth initiative. Participant reflection provided insight into the women's inner feelings. Fisher and Hotchkiss's model (2008 Fisher , G. , &; Hotchkiss , A. ( 2008 ). A model of occupational empowerment for marginalized populations in community environments . Occupational Therapy in Health Care , 22 , 55 – 71 . Retrieved from EBSCOhost .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) was supported as the women achieved personal growth. Further research is needed concerning how this may guide occupational therapy practice with disadvantaged populations.     

How Robust is the Influence of Causal Explanation on Clinical Judgments? Assessments in Structured Clinical Interviews

When causal life-event explanations for disorder symptoms are available, clinicians tend to explain away those symptoms (Ahn, Novick, &; Kim, 2003 Ahn, W., Novick, L. R., &; Kim, N. S. (2003). Understanding behavior makes it normal. Psychonomic Bulletin Review, 10(3), 746–752. doi:10.3758/BF03196541[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Meehl, 1973 Meehl, P. E. (1973). Why I do not attend case conferences. In P. Meehl (Ed.), Psychodiagnosis: Selected papers (pp. 225–302). Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. [Google Scholar]), eschewing formal diagnostic guidelines such as the DSM-5 (American Psychiatric Association, 2013 American Psychiatric Association [APA]. (2013). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (5th ed.). Arlington, VA: American Psychiatric Publishing.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). We asked whether this effect is attenuated in the context of a structured diagnostic clinical interview procedure, which deliberately directs evaluators' attention to symptoms alone, or whether it is robust enough to continue to emerge. Across two experiments, lay evaluators given causal life-event explanations for disordered behaviors gave them lower judgments of abnormality and need for treatment compared to evaluators not given such explanations, regardless of whether they used a structured clinical interview. Thus, causal life-event explanations may have significant impact on clinical evaluations regardless of the mode of assessment. Implications for the clinical utility of structured interviews and the role of life-event context in diagnosis and classification are discussed.     

Contemporary Neuroscience Humanizes: A Look at Cortical Bilateral Asymmetry and How It Got That Way

Exciting research that has surfaced from a host of neuroscience laboratories is presented, and the assumption that they have little to offer human science considered. This includes the sensory substitution work of Bach-y-Rita (1967 Bach-y-Rita , P. ( 1967 ). Sensory plasticity: Applications to a vision substitution system . Acta Neurologica Scandinavia , 43 , 417 – 426 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), as well as the phantom pain hypothesis of Ramachandran (2011 Ramachandran ( 2011 ). The tell-tale brain . New York , NY : Norton . [Google Scholar]). These studies are considered atop the theoretical and meta-analytical work in the field of neuropsychiatry by McGilchrist (2009 McGilchrist , I. ( 2009 ). The master and his emissary . New Haven , CT : Yale University Press . [Google Scholar]). McGilchrist's inquiry into split-brain patients has resuscitated the once-dubious debate regarding hemispheric differences in the brain. By considering the latter in light of the evidence of neuroplasticity, global differences in right- or left-brain preference may be understood as analogous and reciprocally influential to patterns of thinking. This dynamic relationship between experience and the brain requires a reconsideration of the status of neuroscience as an exclusively reductive enterprise. Indeed, the laboratories seem to be producing results that have become increasingly difficult to reconcile with their biologically reductive commitments. While the neuroscientists are busy sorting out their results, those who do not share said commitments are free to enjoy the implications these results suggest.     

Using the Research Domain Criteria Framework to Explore Associations Between MMPI–2–RF Constructs and Physiological Variables Assessed by Eye-Tracker Technology

The National Institute of Mental Health has proposed a paradigm shift in the conceptualization of psychopathology, abandoning the traditional categorical model in favor of one based on hierarchically organized dimensional constructs (Insel et al., 2010 Insel, T., Cuthbert, B., Garvey, M., Heinssen, R., Pine, D. S., Quinn, K., … Wang, P. (2010). Research domain criteria (RDoC): Toward a new classification framework for research on mental disorders. American Journal of Psychiatry, 167, 748–751.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). One explicit goal of this initiative, the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) project, is to facilitate the incorporation of newly available neurobiologic variables into research on psychopathology. The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory–2–Restructured Form (MMPI–2–RF; Ben-Porath &; Tellegen, 2008/2011 Ben-Porath, Y., &; Tellegen, A. (2011). Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory–Restructured Form: Manual for administration, scoring, and interpretation. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. (Original work published 2008) [Google Scholar]) represents a similar paradigm shift, also adopting a hierarchical arrangement of dimensional constructs. This study examined associations between MMPI–2–RF measures of psychopathology and eye-movement metrics. Participants were college students (n = 270) who completed the MMPI–2–RF and then viewed a sequence of 30-s video clips. Results show a pattern of positive correlations between pupil size and emotional/internalizing dysfunction scales when viewing video eliciting negative emotional reactions, reflecting greater arousability in individuals with higher scores on these measures. In contrast, when viewing stimuli depicting angry, threatening material, a clear pattern of negative correlations was found between pupil size and behavioral/externalizing trait measures. These data add to the construct validity of the MMPI–2–RF and support the use of the RDoC matrix as a framework for research on psychopathology.     

An Introduction to Kristof’s Theorem for Solving Least-Square Optimization Problems Without Calculus

Kristof’s Theorem (Kristof, 1970 Kristof, W. (1970). A theorem on the trace of certain matrix products and some applications. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 7(3), 515–530. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(70)90037-4[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) describes a matrix trace inequality that can be used to solve a wide-class of least-square optimization problems without calculus. Considering its generality, it is surprising that Kristof’s Theorem is rarely used in statistics and psychometric applications. The underutilization of this method likely stems, in part, from the mathematical complexity of Kristof’s (1964 Kristof, W. (1964). Die beste orthogonale Transformation zur gegenseitigen Uberfiihrung zweier Faktorenmatrizen. Diagnostica, 10, 87–90. [Google Scholar], 1970 Kristof, W. (1970). A theorem on the trace of certain matrix products and some applications. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 7(3), 515–530. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(70)90037-4[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) writings. In this article, I describe the underlying logic of Kristof’s Theorem in simple terms by reviewing four key mathematical ideas that are used in the theorem’s proof. I then show how Kristof’s Theorem can be used to provide novel derivations to two cognate models from statistics and psychometrics. This tutorial includes a glossary of technical terms and an online supplement with R (R Core Team, 2017 R Core Team (2017). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Retrieved from https://www.R-project.org/ [Google Scholar]) code to perform the calculations described in the text.     

Commentary Research on gene–environment interdependence: Honing the tools and examining the angles

The insightful overview by Sir Michael Rutter (this issue) on gene–environment interdependence comes about 10 years after the breakthrough Science publications on gene–environment interactions (G×E) involving the MAOA and 5-HTT genes by Caspi et al. (2002 Caspi, A., McClay, J., Moffitt, T. E., Mill, J., Martin, J.Craig, I. W. 2002. Role of genotype in the cycle of violence in maltreated children. Science, 297: 851–854. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2003 Caspi, A., Sugden, K., Moffitt, T. E., Taylor, A., Craig, I. W.Harrington, H. 2003. Influence of life stress on depression: Moderation by a polymorphism in the 5-HTT gene. Science, 301: 386–389. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Since then, a field of research has burgeoned that has produced replications as well as intriguing new evidence of gene–environment interdependence. At the same time, however, the field has witnessed a growing scepticism about the relevance of studying gene–environment interactions and has seen replication failures (see Duncan & Keller, 2011 Duncan, L. E. and Keller, M. C. 2011. A critical review of the first 10 years of candidate gene-by-environment interaction research in psychiatry. American Journal of Psychiatry, 168: 1041–1049. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Risch et al., 2009 Risch, N., Herell, R., Lehner, T., Liang, K.-Y., Eaves, L.Hoh, J. 2009. Interaction between the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR), stressful life events, and risk of depression: A meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association, 301: 2462–2471. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Against this backdrop, we comment and elaborate on several of the key issues raised by Rutter, and suggest some directions for future research on G×E. Specifically, we discuss (1) replication issues; (2) the crucial role of experiments in understanding gene–environment interdependence; (3) current unknowns with regard to differential susceptibility; and (4) clinical and practical implications of G×E research.     

Reply to Steele & Ferrer: Modeling Oscillation,Approximately or Exactly?

This article addresses modeling oscillation in continuous time. It criticizes Steele and Ferrer's article “Latent Differential Equation Modeling of Self-Regulatory and Coregulatory Affective Processes” (2011), particularly the approximate estimation procedure applied. This procedure is the latent version of the local linear approximation procedure based on Boker (2001) Boker, S. M. 2001. “Differential structural equation modeling of intraindividual variability.”. In New methods for the analysis of change Edited by: Collins, L. and Sayer, A. 3–28. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar] and Boker, Neale, and Rausch (2004). It furthermore presents two exact alternative estimation procedures, one using filter techniques and the other using structural equation modeling.     

The Abbreviated Character Strengths Test (ACST): A Preliminary Assessment of Test Validity

The 24-item Abbreviated Character Strengths Test (ACST) was developed to efficiently measure character strengths (Peterson, Park, &; Castro, 2011 Peterson, C., Park, N., &; Castro, C. A. (2011). Assessment for the US Army Comprehensive Soldier Fitness program: The Global Assessment Tool. American Psychologist, 66, 10–18.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, its validity for this purpose has not yet been sufficiently established. Using confirmatory factor analysis to test a series of structural models, only a modified bifactor model showed reasonably acceptable fit. Further analyses of this model failed to demonstrate measurement invariance between male and female respondents. Relationships between ACST dimension and Big Five personality trait scores were generally weak-to-moderate, and support for hypotheses regarding each ACST virtue's expected correspondence with specific Big Five dimensions was mixed. Finally, scores on ACST dimensions accounted for a combined 12% of the variance in satisfaction with life scores, after controlling for socially desirability. Although an abbreviated measure of character strengths represents a practical need, considerable improvements to the ACST are needed for it to adequately meet this purpose.