Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: Evidence from an information intrusion paradigm

When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a “take-the-best” (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the “irrelevant” information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models.     

Imperfect Information in Pre-choice Screening of Options

Three experiments examined decision makers′ use of imperfect information in screening of decision options. It was found that: (1) when specific information about options was missing the absence was treated as a violation of the related decision criterion in the manner described by image theory (Beach, 1990; Beach & Mitchell, 1987) - rejection of options was a function of both the number of violations and the amount of missing information; (2) general paucity of information about options prompted rejection over and above the effects of violations, but paucity had about half the impact of violations or of missing information; (3) information about the probability that an option′s outcomes actually will occur were it the final choice was integrated additively with other information in screening, as predicted by image theory, and was integrated multiplicatively with other information in choice, as predicted by expected utility theory. Together with the results of previous research, these results support the image theory view of decision making as a two-stage process, screening followed by choice, and demonstrate once again the pivotal role of screening in this process.     

Price-directive decision making in hierarchical systems with conflicting preferences

In this paper we consider a classical model of price-directive decision making in hierarchical organizations, namely Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition, well known from single-objective programming. Here, however, we allow for preference differences that are usually observed between a central unit and a subunit in an organizational structure. The procedure models, therefore, how decision making may evolve in a context with decentralized information as well as intra- and interpersonal conflicts. Several numerical experiments with the procedure have been performed. The results of those experiments demonstrate that the procedure in many instances converges towards an efficient solution, despite the differences in the criteria weights used in the master problem and the subproblem respectively. This suggests that some amount of goal discordance need not prohibit efficient decision making in a hierarchical organization.     

The dynamics of experimentally induced criterion shifts

Investigations of decision making have typically assumed stationarity, even though commonly observed "context effects" are dynamic by definition. Mirror effects are an important class of context effects that can be explained by changes in participants' decision criteria. When easy and difficult conditions are blocked alternately and a mirror effect is observed, participants must repeatedly change their decision criteria. The authors investigated the time course of these criterion changes and observed the buildup of mirror effects on a trial-by-trial basis. The data are consistent with slow, systematic changes in decision criteria that lag behind stimulus changes. The length of this lag is considerable: analysis of a simple dynamic signal-detection model suggests participants take an average of around 14 trials to adjust to new decision environments. This trial-level measurement of experimentally induced changes has implications for traditional blockwise analyses of data and for models of decision making.     

Decisions beyond boundaries: when more information is processed faster than less

Bounded rationality models usually converge in claiming that decision time and the amount of computational steps needed to come to a decision are positively correlated. The empirical evidence for this claim is, however, equivocal. We conducted a study that tests this claim by adding and omitting information. We demonstrate that even an increase in information amount can yield a decrease in decision time if the added information increases coherence in the information set. Rather than being influenced by amount of information, decision time systematically increased with decreasing coherence. The results are discussed with reference to a parallel constraint satisfaction approach to decision making, which assumes that information integration is operated in an automatic, holistic manner.     

Group‐analytic network process for balancing stakeholder views on fire protection of steel‐framed buildings

To select appropriate fire protection options for buildings during their design stage, economic, safety, environmental, and societal criteria need to be accounted for. The divergent and sometimes conflictual desires from different fire design stakeholders involved in the process present a multicriteria decision problem. Design decision criteria and fire protection options can be interdependent, and so there is a need to manage these desires with an advanced decision analysis technique, thereby reducing uncertainties in the complex decision‐making process. The aim of this paper is to use the weighted/geometric mean method‐analytic network process (W/GMM‐ANP) to balance the opinions of fire design stakeholders extracted from 42 structured stakeholder interviews on selecting the most suitable fire protection option for buildings constructed of steel frames. Different categories of interdependent decision elements were developed from 22 design decision criteria and 5 proposed fire protection options to produce a network of decision clusters for multicriteria decision analysis. In the synthesis and ranking of fire protection options, the W/GMM‐ANP accounted for the multiple interdependencies of weighted and unweighted stakeholder desires and managed the complexity of the decision‐making problem. The technique is proposed for approaching suitable group decisions in structural fire design of steel‐framed buildings as well as other performance‐based engineering decision making that may involve multidisciplinary stakeholders.     

Regret aversion and decision process quality: Effects of regret salience on decision process carefulness

A considerable amount of past research has examined the effects of regret aversion on which options decision makers choose. However, past research has largely neglected to address the effect of regret aversion on the decision process. We conducted five experiments to examine the effect of making regret salient on decision process quality. We predicted that increased regret aversion would lead to more careful decision processing. The results consistently supported this prediction across the different decision situations, incentive structures, regret salience manipulations, and dependent variables used. In all experiments making regret salient led decision makers to take significantly longer to reach a decision. In Studies 2a, 2b, and 4 it also led participants to collect significantly more information before making a choice. Implications and future directions are discussed.     

Risky choice: An examination of information acquisition behavior

The monitoring of information acquisition behavior, along with other process tracing measures such as response times, was used to examine how individuals process information about gambles into a decision. Subjects indicated preferences among specially constructed three-outcome gambles. The number of alternatives available was varied across the sets of gambles. A majority of the subjects processed information about the gambles in ways inconsistent with compensatory models of risky decision making, such as information integration (Anderson & Shanteau, 1970). Furthermore, the inconsistency between observed information acquisition behavior and such compensatory rules increased as the choice task became more complex. Alternative explanations of risky choice behavior are considered.     

Choice-Process Satisfaction: The Influence of Attribute Alignability and Option Limitation

This research investigates how choice-process satisfaction is influenced by limitation of choice option and by the types of features used to represent the options. Studies of choice satisfaction have focused on how satisfied the decision maker feels about the choice that has been made and have overlooked the importance of the process through which the decision maker makes a choice, i.e., choice-process satisfaction. We show that the comparability of choice options through alignable features increases choice-process satisfaction, whereas option limitation (i.e., making one option unavailable from a set of equally attractive options) decreases choice-process satisfaction. Further, this decrease in satisfaction, relative to all options being available, occurs for people who are given a set of options in which the difference features are alignable (i.e., differences of a corresponding dimension) but not for people who are given a set of options in which the difference features are nonalignable (i.e., differences of unique dimensions). We propose that alignable differences are easier to compare and have more weight in people's attribute processing, and thus give rise to a perception of a greater amount of information about the option set that is relevant for choice. Making an option unavailable in this case would have a bigger impact than in a situation in which all options have nonalignable differences. Nonalignable differences are difficult to process and are less likely to make people aware that there is very much information about the options for decision making. This explanation and the interaction effect between option limitation and feature alignability are tested in four experiments.     

Time and decision making in humans

Decision making requires evaluating alternatives that differ on a number of attributes. During this evaluation process, selection of options depends on the duration of the options, the duration of the expected delay for realizing the options, and the time available to reach a decision. This article reviews the relationship between time and decision making in humans with respect to this evaluation process. Moreover, the role of psychological time, as compared with physical time, is accentuated. Five topics have been selected that illustrate how time and mental representations of time affect decision making. These are (1) the duration of options, (2) temporal decision making, (3) the time between having made a decision and experiencing the consequences of that decision, (4) the temporal perspective of decision makers, and (5) the duration of the decision process. The discussion of each topic is supplemented by suggestions for further research. It is shown that psychological time is often neglected in human decision making but seems to play an important role in the making of choices.     

Information Integration in Juror Decision Making

Research applying information integration theory to jury decision making has long assumed that people average informational scale values when making legal judgments. Although often consistent with research results, this hypothesis has never been tested in a legal context against a more general additive rule. The present paper describes two studies conducted as a critical test between these two models. Incriminating evidence and eyewitness confidence were varied in a full-factorial, within-subjects design involving a total of 131 subjects acting as mock jurors. Subject responses included eyewitness accuracy and defendant-guilt probability estimates, as well as final verdict decisions. Results strongly support an averaging model of legal decision making. Additional results concerning the influence of initial attitudes and the interrelationships between the variables considered are reported and their implications are discussed.     

Game relativity: how context influences strategic decision making

Existing models of strategic decision making typically assume that only the attributes of the currently played game need be considered when reaching a decision. The results presented in this article demonstrate that the so-called "co-operativeness" of the previously played prisoner's dilemma games influence choices and predictions in the current prisoner's dilemma game, which suggests that games are not considered independently. These effects involved reinforcement-based assimilation to the previous choices and also a perceptual contrast of the present game with preceding games, depending on the range and the rank of their co-operativeness. A. Parducci's (1965) range frequency theory and H. Helson's (1964) adaptation level theory are plausible theories of relative judgment of magnitude information, which could provide an account of these context effects.     

Age-related changes in decision making: comparing informed and noninformed situations

Advantageous decision making progressively develops into early adulthood, most specifically in complex and motivationally salient decision situations in which direct feedback on gains and losses is provided (Figner & Weber, 2011). However, the factors that underlie this developmental improvement in decision making are still not well understood. The current study therefore investigates 2 potential factors, long-term memory and working memory, by assigning a large developmental sample (7-29 years of age) to a condition with either high or low demands on long-term and working memory. The first condition featured an age-adapted version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994; i.e., a noninformed situation), whereas the second condition provided an external store where explicit information on gains, losses, and probabilities per choice option was presented (i.e., an informed situation). Consistent with previous developmental IGT studies, children up to age 12 did not learn to prefer advantageous options in the noninformed condition. In contrast, all age groups learned to prefer the advantageous options in the informed conditions, although a slight developmental increase in advantageous decision making remained. These results indicate that lowering dependence on long-term and working memory improves children's advantageous decision making. The results additionally suggest that other factors, like inhibitory control processes, may play an additional role in the development of advantageous decision making.     

Enhanced Cardiac Perception Is Associated With Increased Susceptibility to Framing Effects

Previous studies suggest in line with dual process models that interoceptive skills affect controlled decisions via automatic or implicit processing. The “framing effect” is considered to capture implicit effects of task‐irrelevant emotional stimuli on decision‐making. We hypothesized that cardiac awareness, as a measure of interoceptive skills, is positively associated with susceptibility to the framing effect. Forty volunteers performed a risky‐choice framing task in which the effect of loss versus gain frames on decisions based on identical information was assessed. The results show a positive association between cardiac awareness and the framing effect, accounting for 24% of the variance in the framing effect. These findings demonstrate that good interoceptive skills are linked to poorer performance in risky choices based on ambivalent information when implicit bias is induced by task‐irrelevant emotional information. These findings support a dual process perspective on decision‐making and suggest that interoceptive skills mediate effects of implicit bias on decisions.     

Decision Making Characteristics and Decision Styles Predict Adolescents’ Career Choice Satisfaction

Choosing one’s future career represents one of the most important decisions individuals face during their development. In the present study, Croatian college students recollected the process of choosing their future professional paths at the end of high school, and evaluated the outcome of this process. Specifically, students described how they chose between different career options, typically different college majors, available to them at that time. They specified the number and main characteristics of considered alternatives, the underlying motivation and timing of committing to a particular option, and reported how satisfied they were with the made choices. Next, the present study explored the influence of several identified decision making characteristics on participants’ immediate and delayed satisfaction with the chosen option. Additionally, the influence of several decision styles on individuals’ satisfaction was investigated. The obtained results indicate that, among decision making features, decision certainty represented the only significant predictor of participants’ immediate satisfaction with the made decision. The appeal of the preferred option and the number of considered options were revealed as additional significant predictors of delayed satisfaction with the chosen alternative. With regard to decision styles, regret and a distinct commitment factor predicted participants’ satisfaction with the made choice.     

A signal-detection analysis of fast-and-frugal trees

Models of decision making are distinguished by those that aim for an optimal solution in a world that is precisely specified by a set of assumptions (a so-called "small world") and those that aim for a simple but satisfactory solution in an uncertain world where the assumptions of optimization models may not be met (a so-called "large world"). Few connections have been drawn between these 2 families of models. In this study, the authors show how psychological concepts originating in the classic signal-detection theory (SDT), a small-world approach to decision making, can be used to understand the workings of a class of simple models known as fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs). Results indicate that (a) the setting of the subjective decision criterion in SDT corresponds directly to the choice of exit structure in an FFT; (b) the sensitivity of an FFT (measured in d') is reflected by the order of cues searched and the properties of cues in an FFT, including the mean and variance of cues' individual d's, the intercue correlation, and the number of cues; and (c) compared with the ideal and the optimal sequential sampling models in SDT and a majority model with an information search component, FFTs are extremely frugal (i.e., do not search for much cue information), highly robust, and well adapted to the payoff structure of a task. These findings demonstrate the potential of theory integration in understanding the common underlying psychological structures of apparently disparate theories of cognition.     

The Selection of Multiattribute Decision Making Methods for Scholarship Student Selection

Selecting scholarship students from a number of competing candidates is a complex decision making process, in which multiple selection criteria have to be considered simultaneously. Multiattribute decision making (MADM) has proven to be an effective approach for ranking or selecting one or more alternatives from a finite number of alternatives with respect to multiple, usually conflicting criteria. This paper formulates the scholarship student selection process as an MADM problem, and presents suitable compensatory methods for solving the problem. A new empirical validity procedure is developed to deal with the inconsistent ranking problem caused by different MADM methods. The procedure aims at selecting a ranking outcome which has a minimum expected value loss, when true attribute weights are not known. An empirical study of a scholarship student selection problem in an Australian university is conducted to illustrate how the selection procedure works.