Developing prediction weights by matching battery factorings

Between-sample shrinkage of validity from sample errors is compounded when usual multiple regression techniques are employed to estimate weights for new battery components. A rationale is described for increasing prediction weight validity through a combination of a reduced-rank regression technique and a method for determining maximal factored congruence between two sets of measures. A numerical illustration is based on data drawn from a problem in academic prediction.Version of paper presented at symposium, Large Scale Academic Prediction Systems, American Psychological Association, New York, September 1966.     

People are more likely to be insincere when they are more likely to accidentally tell the truth

Although people lie often, and mostly for self-serving reasons, they do not lie as much as they could. The “fudge factor” hypothesis suggests that one reason for people not to lie is that they do not wish to self-identify as liars. Accordingly, self-serving lies should be more likely when they are less obvious to the liars themselves. Here we show that the likelihood of self-serving lies increases with the probability of accidentally telling the truth. Players in our game could transmit sincere or insincere recommendations to their competitors. In line with the fudge factor hypothesis, players lied when their beliefs were based on flimsy evidence and did not lie when their beliefs were based on solid evidence. This is the first demonstration of a new moral hypocrisy paradox: People are more likely to be insincere when they are more likely to accidentally tell the truth.     

Benefiting from misfortune: when harmless actions are judged to be morally blameworthy

Dominant theories of moral blame require an individual to have caused or intended harm. However, the current four studies demonstrate cases where no harm is caused or intended, yet individuals are nonetheless deemed worthy of blame. Specifically, individuals are judged to be blameworthy when they engage in actions that enable them to benefit from another's misfortune (e.g., betting that a company's stock will decline or that a natural disaster will occur). Evidence is presented suggesting that perceptions of the actor's wicked desires are responsible for this phenomenon. It is argued that these results are consistent with a growing literature demonstrating that moral judgments are often the product of evaluations of character in addition to evaluations of acts.     

On the likelihood ratio test in structural equation modeling when parameters are subject to boundary constraints

The authors show how the use of inequality constraints on parameters in structural equation models may affect the distribution of the likelihood ratio test. Inequality constraints are implicitly used in the testing of commonly applied structural equation models, such as the common factor model, the autoregressive model, and the latent growth curve model, although this is not commonly acknowledged. Such constraints are the result of the null hypothesis in which the parameter value or values are placed on the boundary of the parameter space. For instance, this occurs in testing whether the variance of a growth parameter is significantly different from 0. It is shown that in these cases, the asymptotic distribution of the chi-square difference cannot be treated as that of a central chi-square-distributed random variable with degrees of freedom equal to the number of constraints. The correct distribution for testing 1 or a few parameters at a time is inferred for the 3 structural equation models mentioned above. Subsequently, the authors describe and illustrate the steps that one should take to obtain this distribution. An important message is that using the correct distribution may lead to appreciably greater statistical power.     

Maximizing the discriminating power of a multiple-score test

Maximizing the discriminating power of a multiple-score test involves maximizing the homogeneity of each subtest and minimizing the correlations between subtests. A method is presented for constructing such tests from items whose intercorrelations are not too high. Under certain restrictions the saturation, defined as the proportion of inter-item covariance to total variance, is maximized for each subtest. The nucleus of each subtest is three items with high covariancesinter se. All items which will lower the saturation are discarded; the one item is added which will maximize the saturation of the resultant test. This process is repeated until all the items are included or discarded for that subtest. If the correlation between any such subtests approaches the geometric mean of their saturations, their items form a new pool for one or more subtests. Formulas are presented for deciding which items to eliminate in order to reduce further the correlations between subtests.This research was supported in part by the United States Air Force under Contract AF 33(038)-10588 with Human Resources Research Center, Lackland Air Force Base, San Antonio, Texas. Permission is granted for reproduction, translation, publication use and disposal in whole and in part by or for the United States Government.     

Multiple imputation for item scores when test data are factorially complex

Multiple imputation under a two‐way model with error is a simple and effective method that has been used to handle missing item scores in unidimensional test and questionnaire data. Extensions of this method to multidimensional data are proposed. A simulation study is used to investigate whether these extensions produce biased estimates of important statistics in multidimensional data, and to compare them with lower benchmark listwise deletion, two‐way with error and multivariate normal imputation. The new methods produce smaller bias in several psychometrically interesting statistics than the existing methods of two‐way with error and multivariate normal imputation. One of these new methods clearly is preferable for handling missing item scores in multidimensional test data.     

A note on the calculation of weights for maximum battery reliability

Weights may be determined for combining tests so that the composite has maximum reliability, but the calculation of these weights by means of the original equations is cumbersome. It is shown that the desired weighted composite is the first principal axis of a matrix closely related to the intercorrelation matrix. Thus, simple and straightforward procedures are available for calculating the weights.     

Maximizing the response rate in surveys may be a mistake

A random postal sample of 400 Australians was carried out with the assistance of two conventional response-rate maximization techniques: a preliminary letter and a second mailing of the questionnaire aimed at non-respondents to the first questionnaire. The response-rate enhancement techniques appeared to have doubled the response rate from a usual 25% for a one-wave mailing to 47% on the present occasion. The present data, however, showed severe effects of acquiescent response bias (‘saying yes to anything’), thus severely damaging the meaningfulness of the results. It is concluded that the use of response-rate enhancement techniques is not only unnecessary but is also in fact counter-productive.     

Some capacities required to be a psychoanalytic psychotherapist

The capacities required to be a helpful psychoanalytic psychotherapist include those required for any meaningful interpersonal relationship that involves the deepest thoughts and feelings between two people, where one is committed to always putting first the best interests of the other. This paper discusses seven of those capacities: (1) the capacity for empathie technical flexibility; (2) the capacity to be childlike; (3)the capacity for psychological mindedness and insight; (4) the capacity to be neutral but not anonymous; (5) the capacity to recognize, articulate, bear and experience feelings within the session; (6) the capacity to be silent; and (7) the capacity to regress in the service of therapy. Each of these capacities is discussed within the context of practical aspects of delivering psychotherapy.     

Option weights should be determined empirically and not by experts when assessing knowledge with multiple‐choice items

Multiple‐choice tests are frequently used in personnel selection contexts to measure knowledge and abilities. Option weighting is an alternative multiple‐choice scoring procedure that awards partial credit for incomplete knowledge reflected in applicants’ distractor choices. We investigated whether option weights should be based on expert judgment or on empirical data when trying to outperform conventional number‐right scoring in terms of reliability and validity. To obtain generalizable results, we used repeated random sub‐sampling validation and found that empirical option weighting, but not expert option weighting, increased the reliability of a knowledge test. Neither option weighting procedure improved test validity. We recommend to improve the reliability of existing ability and knowledge tests used for personnel selection by computing and publishing empirical option weights.     

Waiting for the bus: when base-rates refuse to be neglected

The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994). The ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 353-377). Chichester, UK: Wiley], a passenger waits for a bus that departs before schedule in 10% of the cases, and is more than 10 min delayed in another 10%. What are Fred's chances of catching the bus on a day when he arrives on time and waits for 10 min? Most respondents think his probability is 10%, or 90%, instead of 50%, which is the correct answer. The experiments demonstrate the difficulties people have in replacing the original three-category 1/8/1 partitioning with a normalized, binary partitioning, where the middle category is discarded. In contrast with typical studies of "base-rate neglect", or under-weighing of base-rates, this task demonstrates a reversed base-rate fallacy, where frequentistic information is overextended and case information ignored. Possible explanations for this robust phenomenon are briefly discussed.     

Intersensory conflict between vision and touch: the response modality dominates when precise, attention-riveting judgments are required

In four experiments, reducing lenses were used to minify vision and generate intersensory size conflicts between vision and touch. Subjects made size judgments, using either visual matching or haptic matching. In visual matching, the subjects chose from a set of visible squares that progressively increased in size. In haptic matching, the subjects selected matches from an array of tangible wooden squares. In Experiment 1, it was found that neither sense dominated when subjects exposed to an intersensory discrepancy made their size estimates by using either visual matching or haptic matching. Size judgments were nearly indentical for conflict subjects making visual or haptic matches. Thus, matching modality did not matter in Experiment 1. In Experiment 2, it was found that subjects were influenced by the sight of their hands, which led to increases in the magnitude of their size judgments. Sight of the hands produced more accurate judgments, with subjects being better able to compensate for the illusory effects of the reducing lens. In two additional experiments, it was found that when more precise judgments were required and subjects had to generate their own size estimates, the response modality dominated. Thus, vision dominated in Experiment 3, where size judgments derived from viewing a metric ruler, whereas touch dominated in Experiment 4, where subjects made size estimates with a pincers posture of their hands. It is suggested that matching procedures are inadequate for assessing intersensory dominance relations. These results qualify the position (Hershberger & Misceo, 1996) that the modality of size estimates influences the resolution of intersensory conflicts. Only when required to self-generate more precise judgments did subjects rely on one sense, either vision or touch. Thus, task and attentional requirements influence dominance relations, and vision does not invariably prevail over touch.     

Genetic differences in the mouse defense test battery

The mouse defense test battery (MDTB) has been designed to examine anxiogenic- or anxiolytic-like properties of psychoactive drugs through effects on specific defensive behaviors. In the present study, the MDTB was used to evaluate the potential contribution of genetic factors to these behaviors. The data revealed pronounced differences in several defense reactions among four inbred strains (BALB/c, C57BL/6, CBA, DBA/2) and one outbred (Swiss) mouse line. Thus, when subjects were introduced into the apparatus, Swiss and C57BL/6 displayed the highest levels of horizontal and vertical activities, while BALB/c and DBA/2 mice showed intermediate and CBA low activity rates. When subjects were chased by the rat, C57BL/6 mice used flight as the dominant defense strategy, while the defensive responses of BALB/c, C57BL/6, and DBA/2 mice consisted of flight reactions and risk assessment activities. However, when flight or escape was not possible, risk assessment became the predominant feature of the defense repertoire in the C57BL/6 mice. When defensive threat/attack behaviors were required, Swiss, BALB/c, DBA/2, and C57BL/6 mice showed very similar reactions in terms of the magnitude of the responses observed. CBA mice were poorly defensive in all these test situations. Finally, after the rat was removed from the test apparatus, Swiss, DBA/2, and C57BL/6 mice displayed more vertical activities than BALB/c mice. These latter, however, showed an increased level of ambulation compared to the activity recorded before the rat exposure. Together, these findings indicate that genetic factors contribute to defensive behaviors in this animal model of anxiety. The different behavioral profiles displayed by the strains used here may provide the means to obtain a better insight into the neurobehavioral mechanisms involved in anxiety-related disorders. Aggr. Behav. 23:19–31, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Cheating more when the spoils are split

Four experiments demonstrated that people are more likely to cheat when the benefits of doing so are split with another person, even an anonymous stranger, than when the actor alone captures all of the benefits. In three of the studies, splitting the benefits of over-reporting one’s performance on a task made such over-reporting seem less unethical in the eyes of participants. Mitigated perceptions of the immorality of over-reporting performance mediated the relationship between split spoils and increased over-reporting of performance in Study 3. The studies thus showed that people may be more likely to behave dishonestly for their own benefit if they can point to benefiting others as a mitigating factor for their unethical behavior.     

Infants return to two-handed reaching when they are learning to walk

The authors examined whether infants of about 1 year return to 2-handed reaching when they begin to walk independently. Infants (N = 9) were followed longitudinally before, during, and after their transition to upright locomotion. Every week, the infants' reaching responses and patterns of interlimb coordination were screened in 3 tasks involving different adaptive reaching responses. Before the onset of upright locomotion, the infants responded to each task adaptively. Following walking onset, they increased their rate of 2-handed responses in all tasks. The 2-handed responses declined when the infants gained better balance control. The results suggest that infants' return to 2-handed reaching is experience dependent. Those findings are discussed in terms of the integration of new developing motor skills into existing cognitive and motor repertoires.     

Mechanisms of contextual control when contexts are informative to solve the task

An experiment was conducted using a human instrumental learning task with the goal of evaluating the mechanisms underlying the deleterious effect of context-switching on responding to an unambiguous stimulus when contexts are informative to solve the task. Participants were trained in a context-based reversal discrimination in which two discriminative stimuli (X and Y) interchange their meaning across contexts A and B. In context A, discriminative stimulus Z consistently announced that the relationship between a specific instrumental response (RI) and a specific outcome (O1) was in effect. Performance in the presence of stimulus Z was equally deteriorated when the test was conducted outside the training context, regardless of whether the test context was familiar (context B) or new (context C). This result is consistent with the idea that participants code all the information presented in an informative context as context-specific with the context playing a role akin to an occasion setter.     

The relationship between the validity of a single test and its contribution to the predictive efficiency of a test battery

Typical selection or classification testing programs should provide for improvement of the predictive efficiency of the test battery. Such provision calls for the administration of experimental tests along with the operational battery administration and follow-up analysis to determine the value of the experimental material. It is possible to determine without waiting for criterion data what the validity of the experimental test must be in order to improve the battery validity. The method together with the proof is presented.