Linda问题：“齐当别”抉择模型的解释

大量有关人类归因判断的研究表明,人类经常违反理性概率公理。Tversky和Kahneman（1983）使用Linda问题等特定场景的研究发现,人们系统性地表现出违反理性推断标准,判断合取事件发生概率大于其组成事件发生概率,称之为合取谬误,并用人们使用代表性启发式判断概率来解释该现象产生的原因。然而使用启发式观点对合取谬误现象进行解释过于模糊不清。该文首先介绍了合取谬误现象及其解释模型,然后应用Li（1994,2004）提出的不确定情形下决策理论——“齐当别”抉择模型对Linda问题中合取谬误产生的原因进行了新的解释     

概率判断中的合取谬误

概率判断中的合取谬误是指违反事件发生概率的合取规则而认为包含多个独立事件的复合事件的发生可能性大于其中某些事件的发生可能性的一种概率判断偏差现象。合取谬误的界定存在一定争议, 相关的解释机制有因果模型理论、确认理论、惊奇理论等, 影响合取谬误的因素有频率效应、训练效应以及个体差异等等。未来研究应联系逆转合取谬误的心理机制来完善已有的理论, 同时注意应用研究以及其非理性的探讨。     

认知需要和警告类型对合取谬误的影响

合取谬误是一种常见的判断偏差,它指的是在不确定条件下,个体评估合取事件及其简单事件发生的概率时,对合取规则系统性偏离的一种现象.实验1 就认知需要类型对合取谬误的影响进行探讨,结果发现高认知需要的被试较不易表现出双重合取谬误和单合取谬误.实验2 探讨了警告类型对合取谬误的影响,结果发现无警告时个体最易表现出单合取谬误,其次是间接警告,最后是直接警告;此外,认知需要与警告类型的交互作用显著,高认知需要的被试在直接警告和间接警告时更少表现出双重合取谬误,在直接警告时更少表现出单合取谬误.     

概念范畴情境化视角下的Linda问题初探

摘 要：本文首先提出了Linda问题的概念范畴情境化视角。该视角认为,Linda问题中的T与F的范畴与分别同T&F中T与F的范畴并不一定相同,当T&F中的T和F至少有一者的范畴较相应的T或F有较大的扩大,且同时另外一者至少较相应T或F有略微的扩大时,就有可能导致T&F>T或T&F>F为合理判断而非谬误的情形,因而至少不能将所有的T&F>或T&F>F的判断都归为谬误。本文通过三项研究发现,被试对T&F中T与F和T与F的专业性判断并不完全相同;排除女权的专业性合取事件<女权的专业性独立呈现且出纳的专业性合取事件<出纳的专业性独立呈现者,所谓谬误水平显著下降;对Linda问题的排序项增加“专业的或职业的”限定词,以增加相应概念范畴的稳定性,显著减少合取谬误。这些结果说明,Linda问题的概念范畴情境化视角获得了支持。     

Linda问题的表象-命题双表征解释视角探究

本文首先提出了Linda问题的表象-命题双表征这一新的解释视角。该视角认为,Linda问题基于表象表征和命题表征可以有两种不同的解读与表征方式;而不同的被试在Linda问题上可能分别采取了上述表征方式之一;但由于Linda问题的特殊性,大多数被试采用了表象表征;大多数被试的这一表征取向则可能是所谓谬误判断出现的原因。本文通过4项研究,让被试在基于表象表征设计的转述版本与基于命题表征设计的转述版间选择接近自身理解的版本;并考察了将Linda问题修改成更符合命题表征的数学化表达形式能否降低所谓谬误水平;还考察了增加促使被试运用命题表征的排序项"Linda是全人类中的一员"能否降低所谓谬误水平。结果显示,在转述版本选择上,大多数被试选择了基于表象表征设计的版本;而上文所指的两个修正版Linda问题则都降低了被试的所谓谬误水平。这些结果支持了本文所提的视角。     

任务情境与概率知识经验对中学生合取判断的影响研究

本研究采用了一套由不同任务情境(数字情境和日常情境)组成的合取判断问卷与一套概率基础知识问卷,对106名中学生的合取判断情况进行调查,结果显示:(1)无论在哪种任务情境下,概率知识经验均未对合取判断成绩产生显著影响。(2)不同概率知识经验的被试在数字任务情境下采用的策略有所不同。     

个体证券投资者自我效能感对赌徒谬误的影响

赌徒谬误指当某一独立随机事件发生后,人们倾向认为这一结果再次出现的概率降低。如果一连串的随机事件呈现出一定的趋势,人们倾向于认为随机事件将呈现系统性反转。证券市场中的赌徒谬误指在股票上涨（下跌）序列中做出股价将要下跌（上涨）的判断。本研究探讨股票市场特征（趋势长度及方向）及投资者的人格特征（自我效能感）对赌徒谬误的影响。以83名股票投资者为对象,采用多层线性模型进行分析,结果发现：趋势长度主效应显著,短线情境下赌徒谬误频次更高;趋势方向主效应显著,下跌情境下赌徒谬误频次更高;二者交互作用显著,在短线下跌情境下,赌徒谬误频次更高;投资者的自我效能感对股票趋势长度具有调节作用,高自我效能的投资者在短线情境下更容易出现赌徒谬误。     

决策评估中的结果偏差

结果偏差又称结果效应,它是发生在决策评估中的一种偏差式判断,即当决策结果与决策质量不存在实质性联系时,评估者仍根据结果信息评估决策质量.针对这一判断谬误的产生根源,研究者们提出了认知解释和申辩模型.结果偏差的影响因素主要包括动机、情境因素和评估手段等.基于先前研究存在的问题和不足,今后的研究应着眼于改进研究手段,理清与其他现象的关系并提出有效的应对策略.     

一种新决策模型——量子决策模型

近10年以来, 一些学者基于量子理论研究思想与方法探索出了量子决策模型。由于该模型独特的理论结构, 它可被用于解释传统决策理论所难以解释的问题, 尤其是个体在不确定情况下的决策行为。该模型解释了诸如分离效应、分类决策的干涉效应以及合取谬误等传统决策模型很难解释的问题, 研究者已经证实其中一种称为量子问题等式的决策模型可以精确地预测决策中的顺序效应。作为一个有助于分析心理学中决策现象的新研究领域, 量子决策模型具有深入研究的理论意义和实践意义。     

行为决策中的比率偏差

比率偏差是指小概率事件以不同比率形式呈现时,人们倾向于认为以较小数字呈现的事件更不可能发生.这种现象在医疗卫生领域和职业生涯决策中有重要的应用价值.目前关于比率偏差产生的解释主要包括标准理论与认知经验自我理论.比率偏差的影响因素主要包括元认知技能、计算能力、认知视角和任务性质等.未来的研究需要从比率偏差现象的产生、心理机制及应用方面进行深入研究.     

The Red and The Real

It is often claimed that principles of individuation imply essential properties of the things individuated. For example, sets are individuated by their members, hence sets have their members essentially. But how does this inference work? First I discuss the form of such inferences, and conclude that the essentialist inference is not a purely formal matter: although there is a form which all principles of individuation have in common, it is not true that any statement of that form is a principle of individuation, and hence there is no valid inference based purely on that form. However, I argue that there is a viable version of the essentialist inference nonetheless. The resources for a proper reconstruction of this type of inference can be gathered from reflections upon the role principles of individuation play in the project of the ontologist: such principles turn out to carry a modal weight similar to that of definitions or conceptual truths. It follows that, no matter how austere the ontology, some portion of essentialist modality is inevitable.     

The Return Of The Religious

Recents discussions of expansion in the European Union and the possibility of envisioning a Muslim country in it has exacerbated the deep-seated anxiety about Islam among the liberal and extreme right in Europe. This paper suggests that there are recurring elements in the discourse of European cultural identity and one of these elements is the representation of Islam in its alterity to European identity and civilization. Questioning the thesis of a radical break with the Christian past, this paper questions whether the European cultural identity which is being formed today signifies a break with a religious form of identification. The liberal and extreme right opposes Turkish membership on the grounds that the differences between ‘European values’ and ‘European culture and lifestyle’ and Turkey's culture are what makes the latter essentially and fundamentally external to the essence of Europe. Tracing the remnants of Christian discourse in the contemporary fashioning of European identity, this paper discusses how Christianity, with its secularized versions, which are now displaced to culture and lifestyle, still holds a privileged position as a unifying theme in Europe. It suggests that one of the tests that awaits Europe is whether it will be capable of articulating a new but democratic identity for Europe, one that is responsive to the differences of the other or whether it wants to continue to be European by way of its old methods of exclusion.     

医学教育人文精神缺失的弊端及对策

人文精神本是医学学科的根本要旨之一,然而,目前医学教育中普遍存在着人文精神缺失的状况.从医学教育的宗旨、医学模式的转变、医学生的综合素质、医患关系方面剖析了人文精神缺失的弊端并提出了相应对策.     

The neglected bulimic: The nonpurger

For nearly 10 years bulimia has been recognized officially as a distinct eating disorder, and yet in that time only minimal attention has focused on the nonpurging subtype. The present investigation compared 21 DSM-III-R diagnosed nonpurging bulimics with 22 non-eating-disordered controls on three standardized questionnaires and during a unique assessment task. In this procedure subjects imagined that they were the character in a series of slides and audiotaped flooding scenes. The content of the stimuli ranged from food and weight cues to issues hypothesized to play a role in the development or maintenance of bulimia (e.g., rejection or loss of control fears). A MANOVA conducted on the three questionnaires was highly significant, with the Beck Depression Inventory and the Restraint Scale being responsible for the elevated bulimic scores. A repeated-measures ANOVA performed on the self-report ratings during the exposure task also achieved significance, as the bulimics reported higher anxiety reactions than controls to each experimental stimulus. Significant skin conductance reactions were detected when a group of only the most psychophysiologically responsive bulimics and controls were compared. The importance of continued comprehensive evaluations with DSM-III-R nonpurging bulimics was emphasized.This research was supported by grants both from the University of New Mexico's Research Allocation Committee and the Biomedical Research Support Grant committee. Portions of this paper were presented at the Association for the Advancement of Behavior Therapy annual conference, Boston, November 1987.     

The Logic of The Goldhagen Debate

Since Daniel J. Goldhagen's Hitler's Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaustattempts to show that the Holocaust is explicable and can be understood largely in terms of a single cause, “eliminationist anti-Semitism”, it is not surprising that the book has generated an international debate. What is surprising is the magnitude and emotional intensity of the debate. This article argues that the deepest flaws in it Hitler's Willing Executioners,as well as the chasm of disagreement between Goldhagen's detractors and defenders, have as much to do with reasoning and concepts as with matters of fact. It concludes that Goldhagen's central argument is stronger than many of his critics claim, but that the inadequacy of his cognitive interpretation of anti-Semitism and his unexamined psychological assumptions weaken his attempt to explain the Holocaust. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

现代视域下传统和谐思想的价值转换

中华传统和谐思想丰富多彩,它是维护中华民族统一的重要法宝,是推动中华民族文化发展的思想源泉。但是,传统和谐思想中也存在着消极的东西,特别是以等级划分为特征的历史局限。继承传统和谐思想的合理内核,并对传统和谐思想进行现代价值转换,对建构社会主义和谐社会具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

骨折治疗方法与原则的最优化历程

多年来骨折治疗,新旧技术、新旧理论相互融合,相互碰撞,产生了新的理论和方法,使得临床疗效显著提高,现阶段理智的临床医生应该融汇各家之长,多方互补,对每一位骨折患者的治疗都应该按照最优化的原则进行.但是在医疗过程中总存在着如方法选择不当或者错误,过度治疗,医患信任危机,医疗伦理道德的丧失等情况,我们应该用矛盾分析的方法来思考这些问题.     

The Activities of The Scandinavian Societies

Freud's concept of the death instinct has given rise to many different interpretations which have often been contradictory. It is in fact already possible to discern two diametrically opposite meanings of this concept in Freud's work from 1920—Beyond the Pleasure Principle—in which he first introduced the concept of the death instinct. In this paper, it is argued that both these meanings are relevant in describing psychical life, although only one of these meanings actually qualifies for the concept “death instinct”. Beyond the Pleasure Principle was written in order to try to understand some everyday, as well as clinical phenomena which could not be explained by the so-called pleasure principle. Freud postulated something beyond the pleasure principle, which initially seemed to have to do with binding energy. I will preserve this idea and attempt to develop it within the context of a phenomenological analysis of time. The temporalization of the subject involves a very basic affirmation of existence, in that the subject experiences something constant, something that can be said to possess the quality of a gestalt. I propose that that which is beyond the pleasure principle—this binding of energy—should be understood as the opposite of the idea of a primordial death instinct striving towards death. In this case, that which is beyond the pleasure principle reflects an original affirmation of existence, which could be said to correspond to Freud's first meaning of the death instinct. The second meaning—for which the name “death instinct” seems to be applicable—concerns the discharge of energy, which from a temporal point of view shows itself as a tendency to dissolution. The concept of the death instinct in its various meanings is discussed in connection with phenomenological reflections on time, which is a different approach from Freud's attempt to ground the death instinct in biology.