Correcting memory improves accuracy of predicted task duration

People are often inaccurate in predicting task duration. The memory bias explanation holds that this error is due to people having incorrect memories of how long previous tasks have taken, and these biased memories cause biased predictions. Therefore, the authors examined the effect on increasing predictive accuracy of correcting memory through supplying feedback for actual task duration. For Experiments 1 (paper-counting task) and 2 (essay-writing task), college students were supplied with duration information about their previous performance on a similar task before predicting task duration. For Experiment 3, participants were recruited at various locations, such as fast food restaurants and video arcades, and supplied with average task duration for others before predicting how long the task would take. In all 3 experiments, supplying feedback increased predictive accuracy. Overall, results indicate that, when predicting duration, people do well when they rely not on memory of past task duration but instead on measures of actual duration, whether their own or that of others. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved).     

Task predictability and remembered duration

The effects of structural predictability on remembered duration judgments were examined within the context of the performance of a series of highly familiar tasks. Across a set of three experiments, task predictability was manipulated by the presence or absence of advance expectancies of what tasks were to be performed (Experiment 1), an (in)variant ordering of task performance (Experiment 2), and the placement of interruptions at between- versus within-task locations (Experiment 3). In each case, a higher degree of predictability led to more accurate and reliable duration estimates that were relatively free of bias, while uncertainty decreased accuracy through an overestimation bias. These results not only render insight into the mediational mechanisms responsible for temporal judgments, but also sug-gest some practical applications for everyday behavior.     

The role of learning in remembered duration

In two experiments, the effects of learning on both the accuracy and bias of duration judgments were examined. In Experiment 1, subjects learned one of two tasks (i.e., using a computer software package, building a model car), containing a varying number of action steps, over a one-, three-, or five-trial period. Retrospective judgments of a task’s total duration revealed that accuracy was high at intermediate stages of learning but was low at early stages due to an overestimation bias and low at later stages due to an underestimation bias. The number of action steps within a task influenced behavior only at early learning stages where more action steps led to significantly longer duration estimates. Experiment 2 acted as a converging operation in which novice and experienced pianists were asked to estimate, in advance, how long they thought it would take them to play melodies that varied in their degree of familiarity (i.e. recently learned, well learned, extremely well learned). When these estimates were compared with the melodies’ actual playing times, results revealed a similar pattern of accuracy and bias as found in Experiment 1. These findings are discussed in terms of a “structural remembering model” that emphasizes the role of event predictability in time estimation behavior.     

Temporal concepts and predicted duration judgments

The present research investigated whether certain conceptualizations of time influence the planning fallacy or the tendency to underestimate predicted task durations. In Experiment 1, participants were presented with one of three types of primes (video, linguistic, video + linguistic) that reflected either an ego or time motion perspective (i.e. an individual moving through time vs. time moving toward an individual). Afterwards, all participants predicted the amount of time required to sort and shelve a stack of journals before actually completing the task. The results showed that across all priming conditions, subjects in the ego motion condition underestimated to a greater extent than those in the time motion condition. Experiment 2 replicated this effect and also found that underestimations are reduced when the implied duration of the experimental session is short vs. long. As a set, these findings have relevant theoretical implications and suggest some potential de-biasing techniques.     

Effect of short and long exposure duration and dual-tasking on a global-local task

Past research has demonstrated a global advantage in responses to visually presented hierarchical stimuli such that, on incongruent trials, the global form interferes with responses to the local level [Kimchi, R. (1992). Primacy of wholistic processing and global/local paradigm: A critical review. Psychological Bulletin, 112, 24-38]. In Experiment 1, 32 adults performed alternating blocks of global or local identification of hierarchical letter stimuli in which the global and local letters were congruent, incongruent, or neutral, and were presented at either a short (17 ms) or long (100 ms) exposure duration. A global advantage was demonstrated at both durations. In the local-directed task, interference on incongruent, relative to neutral, trials was observed at both exposure durations, but facilitation on congruent trials, relative to neutral trials, was present only when stimuli were presented at the long exposure duration. In Experiment 2, global or local identification was performed by another group of 24 adults at either a long or short exposure duration, and also under conditions of full attention (FA) or dual-task (DT) conditions with a digit-monitoring task. Under FA, we again found significant interference at both exposure durations, but facilitation only at the long exposure duration. Under DT conditions, the pattern of facilitation and interference at the short duration remained unchanged. At the long duration, however, dual-tasking eliminated interference in the RT but not error data, while facilitation was present in both sets of data. Results are in line with a perceptual account of the global advantage, and suggest that facilitation requires consciously-mediated processes, whereas interference does not.     

时距长度和速度变化对进度条时距知觉的影响

进度条在人机交互界面中具有广泛应用。本研究运用单任务的预期式范式和口头估计法,探究速度变化对不同时距长度进度条的时距知觉的影响,为进度条的智能化设计提供参考。研究表明：（1）时距长度影响个体的时距估计,时距长度与时距估计比率分数成反比关系;（2）进度条的不同速度变化趋势影响进度条时距知觉,在持续时间相同的匀速、减速、加速和先加后减四种进度条类型中,加速进度条的时距知觉最短,而匀速进度条时距估计最长。     

Effects of task duration on sensitivity to sleep deprivation using the multi-attribute task battery

Several factors affect the sensitivity to sleep deprivation in the performance of computerized tests. Two of these are task complexity and duration. Complexity can improve sensitivity by increasing the demands required to complete the task, but it can also decrease sensitivity by improving the subject’s motivation. The effects of task duration are more predictable in that longer tests generally are more susceptible to deprivation effects than shorter ones. The impact of task duration on an interesting, but complex, aviation simulation was examined here. By breaking down data from 30-min multi-attribute task battery administrations into the first, second, and third 10 min of performance, it was shown that tests shorter than 30 min underestimate the impact of sleep loss on performance. This was especially evident in measures of time-out and tracking errors.     

Effects of Stroop task duration on subsequent cognitive and physical performance

The strength model of self-control purports to explain why brief cognitive response inhibition tasks impair subsequent isometric handgrip endurance. According to the model, ego depleting tasks requiring self-control resources impair performance on subsequent tasks that also require self-control resources. However, several lines of evidence challenge this model, including evidence of improved exercise performance following longer cognitive tasks. Our study investigated the effects of cognitive task duration on (1) subsequent physical endurance performance, (2) concurrent cognitive task performance, and (3) subsequent novel cognitive task performance. Adopting an experimental design, with Stroop task type (incongruent, congruent) and duration (5, 10, 20 min) as between-participant factors, participants (N = 180) completed a color word Stroop task, an isometric handgrip to exhaustion task, and a novel 5-min incongruent number word Stroop task. In the handgrip task, endurance performance was worse following incongruent word Stroop than congruent word Stroop for 10-min tasks but not 5-min and 20-min tasks. In the word Stroop task, accuracy was lower and speed was slower following incongruent word Stroop than congruent word Stroop. Importantly, reaction times improved with longer task durations. In the novel number Stroop task, accuracy was higher following incongruent word Stroop than congruent word Stroop. In conclusion, the finding that the ego depletion effect was moderated by cognitive task duration is better explained by the expected value of control model than the strength model.     

The effect of construal level on predictions of task duration

Construal level theory (Trope & Liberman, 2010) contends that distance to events leads to higher level processing. In a series of studies, we examined the role of construal level in prediction of the time needed to perform a task. Estimates increased when the tasks were distant rather than close in time (Study 1), were hypothetical rather than real (Study 2), and when participants were primed to adopt an abstract rather than a concrete mindset (Study 3). As a possible explanation, it is suggested that time units are perceived as smaller as people move up in abstraction, so that more time units are needed to cover the same amount of work. In line with this, we found that people who were primed to adopt a higher level processing mode visualized an hour as shorter than those in a lower level mode, as indicated by their distance marks on a time-line (Study 4). Finally, the contraction of time units was shown to mediate the relationship between temporal distance and task duration estimates (Study 5).     

The effects of intention and practice on a non-motor duration estimation task

It has already been shown that the intention to reproduce a motor task in the future improves its learning. Here, we tested whether intention had a similar effect on learning to perform a non-motor duration estimation task, and if intention interacted with the amount of practice. Participants learned to estimate and compare two different durations, with or without intending to reproduce this learning in the future, and with two different amounts of practice. The results showed that intention and practice enhanced task learning independently. Moreover, only practice enhanced learning in over-estimation strategy. These finding are discussed with respect to a possible mechanism by which intention and practice might improve the learning of a duration task.     

Control of fixation duration in a simple search task

To obtain insight into the control of fixation duration during visual search, we had 4 subjects perform simple search tasks in which we systematically varied the discriminability of the target. The experiment was carried out under two conditions. Under the first condition (blocked), the discriminability of the target was kept constant during a session. Under the second condition (mixed), the discriminability of the target varied per trial. Under the blocked condition, fixation duration increased with decreasing discriminability. For 2 subjects, we found much shorter fixation durations in difficult trials with the mixed condition than in difficult trials with the blocked condition. Overall, the subjects fixated the target, continued to search, and then went back to the target in 5%–55% of the correct trials. In these trials, the result of the analysis of the foveal target was not used for preparing the next saccade. The results support a preprogramming model of the control of fixation duration. In a simple search task, control of fixation duration appears to be indirect.     

Anxiety and the prediction of task duration: a preliminary analysis

In this study the author explored the relationship between anxiety and predicting task duration. He hypothesized that individuals scoring high on anxiety would predict that more time would be needed to complete a task. Students (N = 198; 80 men and 118 women) enrolled in psychology classes completed the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-State (STAI; C. C. Spielberger, 1983) and estimated the amount of time needed to complete a reading passage. A multiple regression analysis indicated that higher anxiety was associated with a prediction that more time would be needed to complete a task. Directions for future research are offered.     

The effects of delay and exposure duration in a face recognition task

Face recognition was investigated in a successive comparison task. Subjects were required to makesame/different judgments about pairs of Photo-fit faces that were either identical or differed by a single feature. Picture information extraction and retention were examined by manipulating stimulus delay and exposure duration. Results indicated that overall performance was better for the top of the face. The eyes and mouth were more vulnerable than the rest of the face to recognition decrement after a delay, possibly due to their role in facial expression. When features were ranked in order of processing difficulty for each subject, it appeared that features were processed serially and delay affected a retrieval stage, while short exposure affected a visual comparison stage of processing. For the feature ranks, a single dimension of “salience” appeared to be both perceptual and mnemonic.     

An analysis of performance by pre-school children on the KRISP and on a length discrimination task

The speed and accuracy of judgements made by pre-school children on the Kansas Reflection-Impulsivity Scale for Pre-schoolers (KRISP - Wright 1971, 1973) and on a two-choice length discrimination task were investigated. If subjects were relatively accurate on the KRISP then correct responses tended to be faster than errors while if subjects were relatively inaccurate errors were the faster. It is inferred that accurate subjects respond asymptotically in terms of a speed-accuracy tradeoff while inaccurate subjects set a less demanding criterion. Accurate subjects showed a tendency to increase inspection time as a function of item difficulty. This relation did not hold for inaccurate subjects.However, groups classified by means of the KRISP did not differ in either the speed of correct responses or accuracy of line length discriminations. For all groups judgement times were significantly related to stimulus differences and to stimulus ratios. There was no evidence that so-called impulsive children engage in less efficient and less detailed processing than other children.It is argued, contrary to the view of Kagan and his co-workers (e.g. Kakan 1966), that speed and accuracy of responding may not reflect a stable trait dimension. Rather children appear to be able to change their strategies according to the particular demands, implicit or explicit, of the task.