Get Over It! A Multilevel Threshold Autoregressive Model for State-Dependent Affect Regulation

Intensive longitudinal data provide rich information, which is best captured when specialized models are used in the analysis. One of these models is the multilevel autoregressive model, which psychologists have applied successfully to study affect regulation as well as alcohol use. A limitation of this model is that the autoregressive parameter is treated as a fixed, trait-like property of a person. We argue that the autoregressive parameter may be state-dependent, for example, if the strength of affect regulation depends on the intensity of affect experienced. To allow such intra-individual variation, we propose a multilevel threshold autoregressive model. Using simulations, we show that this model can be used to detect state-dependent regulation with adequate power and Type I error. The potential of the new modeling approach is illustrated with two empirical applications that extend the basic model to address additional substantive research questions.     

A tetrad test for causal indicators

The authors propose a confirmatory tetrad analysis test to distinguish causal from effect indicators in structural equation models. The test uses "nested" vanishing tetrads that are often implied when comparing causal and effect indicator models. The authors present typical models that researchers can use to determine the vanishing tetrads for 4 or more variables. They also provide the vanishing tetrads for mixtures of causal and effect indicators, for models with fewer than 4 indicators per latent variable, or for cases with correlated errors. The authors illustrate the test results for several simulation and empirical examples and emphasize that their technique is a theory-testing rather than a model-generating approach. They also review limitations of the procedure including the indistinguishable tetrad equivalent models, the largely unknown finite sample behavior of the test statistic, and the inability of any procedure to fully validate a model specification.     

Effect Partitioning in Cross-Sectionally Clustered Data Without Multilevel Models

Abstract

Effect partitioning is almost exclusively performed with multilevel models (MLMs) – so much so that some have considered the two to be synonymous. MLMs are able to provide estimates with desirable statistical properties when data come from a hierarchical structure; but the random effects included in MLMs are not always integral to the analysis. As a result, other methods with relaxed assumptions are viable options in many cases. Through empirical examples and simulations, we show how generalized estimating equations (GEEs) can be used to effectively partition effects without random effects. We show that more onerous steps of MLMs such as determining the number of random effects and the structure for their covariance can be bypassed with GEEs while still obtaining identical or near-identical results. Additionally, violations of distributional assumptions adversely affect estimates with MLMs but have no effect on GEEs because no such assumptions are made. This makes GEEs a flexible alternative to MLMs with minimal assumptions that may warrant consideration. Limitations of GEEs for partitioning effects are also discussed.     

An Evaluation of Weighting Methods Based on Propensity Scores to Reduce Selection Bias in Multilevel Observational Studies

Observational studies of multilevel data to estimate treatment effects must consider both the nonrandom treatment assignment mechanism and the clustered structure of the data. We present an approach for implementation of four propensity score (PS) methods with multilevel data involving creation of weights and three types of weight scaling (normalized, cluster-normalized and effective), followed by estimation of multilevel models with the multilevel pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method. Using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we found that the multilevel model provided unbiased estimates of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) and its standard error across manipulated conditions and combinations of PS model, PS method, and type of weight scaling. Estimates of between-cluster variances of the ATT were biased, but improved as cluster sizes increased. We provide a step-by-step demonstration of how to combine PS methods and multilevel modeling to estimate treatment effects using multilevel data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K).     

A Computationally Efficient State Space Approach to Estimating Multilevel Regression Models and Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Models

Although the state space approach for estimating multilevel regression models has been well established for decades in the time series literature, it does not receive much attention from educational and psychological researchers. In this article, we (a) introduce the state space approach for estimating multilevel regression models and (b) extend the state space approach for estimating multilevel factor models. A brief outline of the state space formulation is provided and then state space forms for univariate and multivariate multilevel regression models, and a multilevel confirmatory factor model, are illustrated. The utility of the state space approach is demonstrated with either a simulated or real example for each multilevel model. It is concluded that the results from the state space approach are essentially identical to those from specialized multilevel regression modeling and structural equation modeling software. More importantly, the state space approach offers researchers a computationally more efficient alternative to fit multilevel regression models with a large number of Level 1 units within each Level 2 unit or a large number of observations on each subject in a longitudinal study.     

Multilevel Reliability Measures of Latent Scores Within an Item Response Theory Framework

Abstract

This paper evaluated multilevel reliability measures in two-level nested designs (e.g., students nested within teachers) within an item response theory framework. A simulation study was implemented to investigate the behavior of the multilevel reliability measures and the uncertainty associated with the measures in various multilevel designs regarding the number of clusters, cluster sizes, and intraclass correlations (ICCs), and in different test lengths, for two parameterizations of multilevel item response models with separate item discriminations or the same item discrimination over levels. Marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)-multiple imputation and Bayesian analysis were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rates of Monte Carlo (MC) confidence or credible intervals. Considering the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the intervals, the results lead us to generally recommend MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with separate item discriminations over levels, marginally acceptable accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were found in a limited condition, 200 clusters, 30 cluster size, .2 ICC, and 40 items, in MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with the same item discrimination over levels, the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were acceptable in all multilevel designs we considered with 40 items under MMLE-multiple imputation. We discuss these findings and provide guidelines for reporting multilevel reliability measures.     

Multilevel Mixture Factor Models

Factor analysis is a statistical method for describing the associations among sets of observed variables in terms of a small number of underlying continuous latent variables. Various authors have proposed multilevel extensions of the factor model for the analysis of data sets with a hierarchical structure. These Multilevel Factor Models (MFMs) have in common that—as in multilevel regression analysis—variation at the higher level is modeled using continuous random effects. In this article, we present an alternative multilevel extension of factor analysis which we call the Multilevel Mixture Factor Model (MMFM). It is based on the assumption that higher level units belong to latent classes that differ in terms of the parameters of the factor model specified for the lower level units. We demonstrate the added value of MMFM compared with MFM, both from a theoretical and applied perspective, and we illustrate the complementarity of the two approaches with an empirical application on students' satisfaction with the University of Florence. The multilevel aspect of this application is that students are nested within study programs, which makes it possible to cluster these programs based on their differences in students' satisfaction.     

Multilevel modeling: current and future applications in personality research

Traditional statistical analyses can be compromised when data are collected from groups or multiple observations are collected from individuals. We present an introduction to multilevel models designed to address dependency in data. We review current use of multilevel modeling in 3 personality journals showing use concentrated in the 2 areas of experience sampling and longitudinal growth. Using an empirical example, we illustrate specification and interpretation of the results of series of models as predictor variables are introduced at Levels 1 and 2. Attention is given to possible trends and cycles in longitudinal data and to different forms of centering. We consider issues that may arise in estimation, model comparison, model evaluation, and data evaluation (outliers), highlighting similarities to and differences from standard regression approaches. Finally, we consider newer developments, including 3-level models, cross-classified models, nonstandard (limited) dependent variables, multilevel structural equation modeling, and nonlinear growth. Multilevel approaches both address traditional problems of dependency in data and provide personality researchers with the opportunity to ask new questions of their data.     

Structural equation modeling of multitrait-multimethod data: different models for different types of methods

The question as to which structural equation model should be selected when multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data are analyzed is of interest to many researchers. In the past, attempts to find a well-fitting model have often been data-driven and highly arbitrary. In the present article, the authors argue that the measurement design (type of methods used) should guide the choice of the statistical model to analyze the data. In this respect, the authors distinguish between (a) interchangeable methods, (b) structurally different methods, and (c) the combination of both kinds of methods. The authors present an appropriate model for each type of method. All models allow separating measurement error from trait influences and trait-specific method effects. With respect to interchangeable methods, a multilevel confirmatory factor model is presented. For structurally different methods, the correlated trait-correlated (method-1) model is recommended. Finally, the authors demonstrate how to appropriately analyze data from MTMM designs that simultaneously use interchangeable and structurally different methods. All models are applied to empirical data to illustrate their proper use. Some implications and guidelines for modeling MTMM data are discussed.     

A Multivariate Multilevel Approach to the Modeling of Accuracy and Speed of Test Takers

Response times on test items are easily collected in modern computerized testing. When collecting both (binary) responses and (continuous) response times on test items, it is possible to measure the accuracy and speed of test takers. To study the relationships between these two constructs, the model is extended with a multivariate multilevel regression structure which allows the incorporation of covariates to explain the variance in speed and accuracy between individuals and groups of test takers. A Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computation enables straightforward estimation of all model parameters. Model-specific implementations of a Bayes factor (BF) and deviance information criterium (DIC) for model selection are proposed which are easily calculated as byproducts of the MCMC computation. Both results from simulation studies and real-data examples are given to illustrate several novel analyses possible with this modeling framework. The authors thank Steven Wise, James Madison University, and Pere Joan Ferrando, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, for generously making available their data sets for the empirical examples in this paper.     

Detecting Intervention Effects Using a Multilevel Latent Transition Analysis with a Mixture IRT Model

A multilevel latent transition analysis (LTA) with a mixture IRT measurement model (MixIRTM) is described for investigating the effectiveness of an intervention. The addition of a MixIRTM to the multilevel LTA permits consideration of both potential heterogeneity in students’ response to instructional intervention as well as a methodology for assessing stage sequential change over time at both student and teacher levels. Results from an LTA–MixIRTM and multilevel LTA–MixIRTM were compared in the context of an educational intervention study. Both models were able to describe homogeneities in problem solving and transition patterns. However, ignoring a multilevel structure in LTA–MixIRTM led to different results in group membership assignment in empirical results. Results for the multilevel LTA–MixIRTM indicated that there were distinct individual differences in the different transition patterns. The students receiving the intervention treatment outscored their business as usual (i.e., control group) counterparts on the curriculum-based Fractions Computation test. In addition, 27.4 % of the students in the sample moved from the low ability student-level latent class to the high ability student-level latent class. Students were characterized differently depending on the teacher-level latent class.     

基于阶层线性理论的多层级中介效应

本文介绍了三种常见的多层级中介效应模型, 并根据阶层线性理论和依次检验回归系数的方法, 详述了多层级中介效应的检验步骤以及中介效应量的估计方法, 在2-1-1和1-1-1中介效应模型中, 推荐采用对层1自变量按组均值中心化, 同时将组均值置于层2截距方程式的中心化方法, 以实现组间和组内中介效应的有效分离。本文还展望了多层级中介效应模型的拓展方向, 即多层级调节性中介模型和多层级结构方程模型; 以及检验方法的拓展, 即Sobel检验和置信区间检验。     

Multilevel component analysis

A general framework for the exploratory component analysis of multilevel data (MLCA) is proposed. In this framework, a separate component model is specified for each group of objects at a certain level. The similarities between the groups of objects at a given level can be expressed by imposing constraints on component models of the groups using the approach adopted in simultaneous component analysis. The constraints used are based on the loading matrices and on the covariances of the component scores of each group. MLCA is related to three‐way component analysis and to currently available multilevel structural equation models. It is shown that the latter are less flexible than MLCA. The use of MLCA is illustrated by means of an empirical example.     

Multiple Group Analysis in Multilevel Structural Equation Model Across Level 1 Groups

This article introduces and evaluates a procedure for conducting multiple group analysis in multilevel structural equation model across Level 1 groups (MG1-MSEM; Ryu, 2014). When group membership is at Level 1, multiple group analysis raises two issues that cannot be solved by a simple extension of the standard multiple group analysis in single-level structural equation model. First, the Level 2 data are not independent between Level 1 groups. Second, the standard procedure fails to take into account the dependency between members of different Level 1 groups within the same cluster. The MG1-MSEM approach provides solutions to these problems. In MG1-MSEM, the Level 1 mean structure is necessary to represent the differences between Level 1 groups within clusters. The Level 2 model is the same regardless of Level 1 group membership. A simulation study examined the performance of MUML (Muthén's maximum likelihood) estimation in MG1-MSEM. The MG1-MSEM approach is illustrated for both a multilevel path model and a multilevel factor model using empirical data sets.     

Single and Multiple Ability Estimation in the SEM Framework: A Noninformative Bayesian Estimation Approach

Latent variable models with many categorical items and multiple latent constructs result in many dimensions of numerical integration, and the traditional frequentist estimation approach, such as maximum likelihood (ML), tends to fail due to model complexity. In such cases, Bayesian estimation with diffuse priors can be used as a viable alternative to ML estimation. This study compares the performance of Bayesian estimation with ML estimation in estimating single or multiple ability factors across 2 types of measurement models in the structural equation modeling framework: a multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) model and a multiple-indicator multiple-cause (MIMIC) model. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that Bayesian estimation with diffuse priors, under various conditions, produces results quite comparable with ML estimation in the single- and multilevel MIRT and MIMIC models. Additionally, an empirical example utilizing the Multistate Bar Examination is provided to compare the practical utility of the MIRT and MIMIC models. Structural relationships among the ability factors, covariates, and a binary outcome variable are investigated through the single- and multilevel measurement models. The article concludes with a summary of the relative advantages of Bayesian estimation over ML estimation in MIRT and MIMIC models and suggests strategies for implementing these methods.     

Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching

A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of \(n= 29\) mother–infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children’s tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.     

Multilevel Model Prediction

Multilevel models are proven tools in social research for modeling complex, hierarchical systems. In multilevel modeling, statistical inference is based largely on quantification of random variables. This paper distinguishes among three types of random variables in multilevel modeling—model disturbances, random coefficients, and future response outcomes—and provides a unified procedure for predicting them. These predictors are best linear unbiased and are commonly known via the acronym BLUP; they are optimal in the sense of minimizing mean square error and are Bayesian under a diffuse prior. For parameter estimation purposes, a multilevel model can be written as a linear mixed-effects model. In this way, parameters of the many equations can be estimated simultaneously and hence efficiently. For prediction purposes, we show that it is more convenient to retain the multiple equation feature of multilevel models. In this way, the efficient BLUPs are easy to compute and retain their intuitively appealing recursive form. We also derive explicit equations for standard errors of these different types of predictors. Prediction in multilevel modeling is important in a wide range of applications. To demonstrate the applicability of our results, this paper discusses prediction in the context of a study of school effectiveness. This research was supported by a grant from the Graduate School at the University of Wisconsin at Madision and the National Science Foundation, Grant number SES-0436274. We are grateful to Norman Webb at Wisconsin Center for Education Research for making available the data used in the reported application.     

Review of Family Relational Stress and Pediatric Asthma: The Value of Biopsychosocial Systemic Models

Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children. Despite dramatic advances in pharmacological treatments, asthma remains a leading public health problem, especially in socially disadvantaged minority populations. Some experts believe that this health gap is due to the failure to address the impact of stress on the disease. Asthma is a complex disease that is influenced by multilevel factors, but the nature of these factors and their interrelations are not well understood. This paper aims to integrate social, psychological, and biological literatures on relations between family/parental stress and pediatric asthma, and to illustrate the utility of multilevel systemic models for guiding treatment and stimulating future research. We used electronic database searches and conducted an integrated analysis of selected epidemiological, longitudinal, and empirical studies. Evidence is substantial for the effects of family/parental stress on asthma mediated by both disease management and psychobiological stress pathways. However, integrative models containing specific pathways are scarce. We present two multilevel models, with supporting data, as potential prototypes for other such models. We conclude that these multilevel systems models may be of substantial heuristic value in organizing investigations of, and clinical approaches to, the complex social–biological aspects of family stress in pediatric asthma. However, additional systemic models are needed, and the models presented herein could serve as prototypes for model development.     

Bayesian analysis of longitudinal multitrait–multimethod data with ordinal response variables

A new multilevel latent state graded response model for longitudinal multitrait–multimethod (MTMM) measurement designs combining structurally different and interchangeable methods is proposed. The model allows researchers to examine construct validity over time and to study the change and stability of constructs and method effects based on ordinal response variables. We show how Bayesian estimation techniques can address a number of important issues that typically arise in longitudinal multilevel MTMM studies and facilitates the estimation of the model presented. Estimation accuracy and the impact of between‐ and within‐level sample sizes as well as different prior specifications on parameter recovery were investigated in a Monte Carlo simulation study. Findings indicate that the parameters of the model presented can be accurately estimated with Bayesian estimation methods in the case of low convergent validity with as few as 250 clusters and more than two observations within each cluster. The model was applied to well‐being data from a longitudinal MTMM study, assessing the change and stability of life satisfaction and subjective happiness in young adults after high‐school graduation. Guidelines for empirical applications are provided and advantages and limitations of a Bayesian approach to estimating longitudinal multilevel MTMM models are discussed.