A privileged and exemplar resource: traumatic avoidance learning and the early triumph of mathematical psychology

The relationship between a classic 1953 study by R. L. Solomon and L.C. Wynne on traumatic avoidance learning adn the pioneering efforts by Robert Bush and Frederick Mosteller and others to develop mathematical models of learning is analyzed. The main purpose is to explore how Bush and Mosteller disembedded a carefully selected set of Solomon and Wynne's data from its original context, which allowed something as seemingly humble as a set of numbers to become a widely available and valuable resource for the newly emerging field of mathematical learning theory (MLT). The creative use that the MLT community made of these data once Bush and Mosteller had systematically reduced the empirical and conceptual uncertainties within Solomon and Wynne's study is also discussed.     

Markov processes in learning theory

Consideration is given mathematical problems arising in two learning theories—one developed by Bush and Mosteller, the other developed by Estes. The theory of Bush and Mosteller leads to a class of Markov processes which have been studied in considerable detail (see [1] and [7]). The Estes model can be treated as a Markov chain, i.e., a Markov process with a finite number of states. For an important class of special cases, it is shown that the Bush-Mosteller model is, in a sense, a limiting form of the Estes model. The limiting probability distributions are derived for the cases treated in both models.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation through a grant given to the Dartmouth Mathematics Project.     

A sequence of limiting distributions of response probabilities

Explicit solutions are obtained for a sequence of limiting distributions of response probabilities for the two experimenter-controlled events learning model of Bush and Mosteller [2]. A generalization to thes experimenter-controlled events model is found.     

Elemental representations of stimuli in associative learning

This article reviews evidence and theories concerning the nature of stimulus representations in Pavlovian conditioning. It focuses on the elemental approach developed in stimulus sampling theory (R. C. Atkinson & W. K. Estes, 1963; R. R. Bush & F. Mosteller, 1951b) and extended by I. P. L. McLaren and N. J. Mackintosh (2000, 2002) and contrasts this with models that invoke notions of configural representations that uniquely code for different patterns of stimulus inputs (e.g., J. M. Pearce, 1987, 1994; R. A. Rescorla & A. R. Wagner, 1972; A. R. Wagner & S. E. Brandon, 2001). The article then presents a new elemental model that emphasizes interactions between stimulus elements. This model is shown to explain a range of behavioral findings, including those (e.g., negative patterning and biconditional discriminations) traditionally thought to be beyond the explanatory capabilities of elemental models. Moreover, the model offers a ready explanation for recent findings reported by R. A. Rescorla (2000, 2001, 2002b) concerning the way that stimuli with different conditioning histories acquire associative strength when conditioned in compound.     

Remarks about a paired comparison model

A generalization of the customary model underlying the Law of Comparative Judgment is established. Methods for estimating location parameters and testing a certain hypothesis are discussed. The problem of the influence of the shape of the curve used to grade responses is raised and a possible approach to its solution is indicated. Two examples are provided.The author is obliged to F. Mosteller for helpful discussions.     

The matching problem

Tables of the exact distributions of number of matches are given for small decks having the same number of cards in each suit. Several approximate distributions are considered for use with larger decks, and some indication of the goodness of the approximations is given.The calculations for this paper were done while the writer was working on a project sponsored by funds from the Ford Foundation. The writer wishes to express his gratitude to Dr. Frederick Mosteller for his constant help and encouragement during the writing of this paper.     

The bimean: A measure of central tendency that accommodates outliers

Observations that depart considerably from the center of a distribution demand special consideration. They may be retained, trimmed, or weighted less than other data. This article provides a BASIC program that implements Mosteller and Tukey’s (1977) technique for weighting observations less as they depart from the middle of a distribution. Influence curves for this “bisquare-weighted mean,” or “bimean,” are displayed and compared with more traditional measures of central tendency.     

Stepping Beyond Message Specificity in the Study of Emotion as Mediator and Inter-Emotion Associations Across Attitude Objects: Fahrenheit 9/11, Anger,and Debate Superiority

This experimental research focuses on four distinct, but related theoretical interests regarding the study of emotion and media effects: (a) emotion serving as a potential mediator of the relationship between the consumption of multiple media messages, (b) media messages sparking emotional reactions to attitude objects not specifically referenced or identified in a message, (c) the assessment of inter-emotion relationships across distinct attitude objects, and (d) varied processes of emotion-based influence based on individual-difference attitude object preferences. This work focuses on Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, its effects on anger felt toward President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry, and subsequent perceptions of candidate debate superiority across Bush versus Kerry supporters. Moore's film was found to influence levels of anger felt toward both Bush and Kerry and these emotions were related to subsequent perceptions of debate superiority. Distinct processes of influence were found for previously identified Bush supporters versus Kerry supporters, with Bush anger serving as a mediator for Bush supporters and Kerry anger serving as a mediator for Kerry supporters. Ramifications of this study's findings are outlined and future lines of research are summarized.     

Deliver us from evil: the effects of mortality salience and reminders of 9/11 on support for President George W. Bush

According to terror management theory, heightened concerns about mortality should intensify the appeal of charismatic leaders. To assess this idea, we investigated how thoughts about death and the 9/11 terrorist attacks influence Americans' attitudes toward current U.S. President George W. Bush. Study 1 found that reminding people of their own mortality (mortality salience) increased support for Bush and his counterterrorism policies. Study 2 demonstrated that subliminal exposure to 9/11-related stimuli brought death-related thoughts closer to consciousness. Study 3 showed that reminders of both mortality and 9/11 increased support for Bush. In Study 4, mortality salience led participants to become more favorable toward Bush and voting for him in the upcoming election but less favorable toward Presidential candidate John Kerry and voting for him. Discussion focused on the role of terror management processes in allegiance to charismatic leaders and political decision making.     

Book reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Understanding Robust and Exploratory Data Analysis . Edited by David C. Hoaglin, Frederick W. Mosteller & John W. Tukey. Psychology and Mathematics: An Essay on Theory . By Clyde H. Coombs. Stochastic Modeling of Elementary Psychological Processes . By James T. Townsend & F. Gregory Ashby. Days of Judgement . Edited by Roy Macleod.     

Fahrenheit 9‐11, Need for Closure and the Priming of Affective Ambivalence: An Assessment of Intra‐affective Structures by Party Identification

This study extends priming research in political communication by focusing on an alternative political information source (i.e., Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9‐11), affect rather than cognitions, and the existence of intra‐affective ambivalence. In addition, two moderator variables are analyzed: political party identification and need for closure. There is a statically significant three‐way interaction between the viewing of F 9‐11, political party identification, and need for closure relative to the dependent variable of affective ambivalence toward George W. Bush. High need for closure Republicans who viewed F 9‐11 exhibited pronounced levels of Bush‐affective ambivalence. In addition, high need for closure Independents who viewed F 9‐11 exhibited far lower ambivalence toward Bush relative to their control group peers. The findings are discussed relative to the roles performed by emerging alternative political media and the expansion of the theory of priming within the context of political communication.     

Note on use of extreme criterion groups in item discrimination analysis

The purpose of this note is to reconsider the Kelley-Cureton definition of optimal extreme groups for estimating item-criterion correlations. Optimal tail per cents are derived, using the criterion of minimum sampling variance of the tetrachoric correlation coefficient, and the findings are related to earlier work of Mosteller. It is shown that upper and lower 27 per cent groups yield the most precise estimate of the tetrachoric coefficient only when the population correlation is close to zero. When the population value is .4, extreme 20 per cent groups provide estimates with the smallest sampling error variance. It is further shown, however, that 27 per cent extremes yield highly efficient estimates. Thus no change is recommended in traditional item analysis procedures.     

Sexism Versus Partisanship: A New Look at the Question of Whether America is Ready for a Woman President

We question the validity of traditional polling about the likelihood of respondents to vote for a woman president and argue that the use of such polls may overestimate sexism and underestimate the role that party identification and individual characteristics play in deciding about whether to vote for a woman president. Our analysis of data collected in May–June 2004 show that many people who say they will not vote for a woman for president would do so if given realistic, specific, political scenarios via head-to-head match-ups with potential candidates. Although survey respondents preferred George W. Bush to Hillary Clinton, the margin between these candidates was close especially considering that Bush had been actively campaigning for months, whereas Clinton had not.     

Using Attitude Strength to Predict Registration and Voting Behavior in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Elections

This study examined attitude strength in the context of the 2004 U.S. presidential election. Surveys of 299 undergraduates assessed attitudes and attitude strength constructs toward Bush/Kerry. The results suggest that (a) attitude strength constructs, especially importance and value-relevance, predict political behavior, (b) indicators of attitude strength may represent two underlying factors, and (c) attitude strength moderates the attitude-candidate choice relationship. Additional results offered some support for the validity of two new attitude strength constructs: higher order attitudes (participants' attitudes about their attitudes) and polarization of candidate attitudes (the absolute value of the difference in attitudes toward Bush and Kerry).     

Encroachments on State Sovereignty: The Argumentation Strategies of the George W. Bush Administration

As the world has increasingly embraced globalization, temptations to encroach on traditional boundaries of state sovereignty for reasons of self-interest mount. Argumentation studies provide an important lens for examining the public discourse used to justify such moves. This essay examines the Bush administration’s strategic use of the definitional processes of association and dissociation to build its public case for regime change in Afghanistan. After exploring how the Bush administration’s early rhetoric after 9/11 failed to actually provide the Taliban a choice to remain in power, the essay reveals three combinations of the terrorism/state relationship that functioned as an argument by definition to gain support for the US campaign to overthrow the regime.     

The variance error of the P50-discriminant

The P₅₀-discriminant has been reported elsewhere in connection with its use in predicting whether selective service registrants if inducted would become normal operative soldiers or would commit offenses causing their imprisonment. The standard error of the P₅₀-discriminant is a good measure to use in determining how far to the side of this statistic a particular case falls. The standard error formula itself has also been published elsewhere; but its derivation, as the variance error, is given here.The author gratefully acknowledges the very extensive assistance kindly given to him by Dr. Truman L. Kelley and Dr. Frederick Mosteller. This assistance was given without reference to the utility of the P₅₀-discriminant, upon which matter the author reports elsewhere and for which he takes full responsibility.     

Catholic Priests and the Political Order: The Political Behavior of Catholic Pastors

A nationwide mail survey of Catholic priests is analyzed with respect to their political behavior in the presidential election of 2000. Priests exhibit a slight tendency to self-identify as political liberals, and a strong tendency to identify with the Democratic Party. Nevertheless, Bill Clinton won a very narrow victory over Bob Dole among priests in 1996, and George W. Bush trounced Al Gore among Catholic clergy in 2000. My analysis suggests that support for Gore was motivated by concern for hunger and poverty among Catholic priests, while support for Bush was driven primarily by priestly opposition to abortion. Political participation among priests was predicted by the importance attached to social justice concerns, and by congruence between the social and economic views of each priest and his congregation.     

Presidential IQ, Openness, Intellectual Brilliance, and Leadership: Estimates and Correlations for 42 U.S. Chief Executives

Individual differences in intelligence are consistently associated with leader performance, including the assessed performance of presidents of the United States. Given this empirical significance, IQ scores were estimated for all 42 chief executives from George Washington to G. W. Bush. The scores were obtained by applying missing-values estimation methods (expectation-maximization) to published assessments of (a) IQ (Cox, 1926; n =  8), (b) Intellectual Brilliance (Simonton, 1986c; n =  39), and (c) Openness to Experience (Rubenzer & Faschingbauer, 2004; n =  32). The resulting scores were then shown to correlate with evaluations of presidential leadership performance. The implications for George W. Bush and his presidency were then discussed.     

Political Party, Strength of Identification, and Knowledge and Evaluation of Bush v. Gore

Two studies examined knowledge of and attitudes toward Bush v. Gore , the Supreme Court decision that ended Election 2000, to examine the effects of a strong counterattitudinal message about a high-relevance issue. Republicans reported the most positive attitudes, while high-identification Democrats possessed the most accurate knowledge (Study 1); high-identification participants rated Bush v. Gore as more important and personally relevant than those less identified. Upon persuasion, high-identification Republicans maintained positive attitudes unrelated to knowledge and issue importance, while Democrats and low-identification Republicans reported negative attitudes predicted by persuasion (Study 2). High-identification Republicans reported more positive and fewer negative emotions upon persuasion, with emotions most predictive of attitudes. Implications for the role of emotions in resistance to persuasion are discussed.     

The Hostile Media Effect,Biased Assimilation,and Perceptions of a Presidential Debate1

This study examined the relation between 2 seemingly inconsistent phenomena: hostile media effect and biased assimilation. Participants (N = 156) reported their preference for George W. Bush or John Kerry and then viewed a live broadcast of the first Bush–Kerry Presidential debate. Consistent with biased assimilation, candidate preference influenced participants on both sides to perceive their candidate won the debate. Nevertheless, candidate preference modestly induced participants to perceive hostile bias from the debate moderator, Jim Lehrer. The influence of anticipated third‐person effects was also examined. Overall, the results suggest biased assimilation and the hostile media effect are not inconsistent. In some situations, they occur simultaneously. Moreover, the hostile media effect appears to extend beyond news reports to other forms of mediation.