如何描述发展趋势的差异：潜变量混合增长模型

在追踪研究中,研究者不仅关心某一特质随时间的发展趋势,而且关注个体之间发展趋势的差异及其存在差异的原因。在总体发展同质的情形下,多层线性模型和潜变量增长曲线模型为解决这一问题提供了切实有效的方法。但是如果所研究的总体本身不同质,就需要一种能够描述总体中不同质子总体的不同发展特点的方法。该文简要介绍了一种能够描述不同群体不同发展趋势特征的统计模型——潜变量混合增长模型,并通过一个实际例子介绍了这一方法的应用过程,同时说明了潜变量混合增长模型与多层线性模型和潜变量增长曲线模型之间的关系     

回归混合模型：方法进展与软件实现

近来以个体为分析对象的方法日益受到研究者的重视, 其中潜类别和潜剖面模型最为流行。研究者在潜类别和潜剖面模型建模时往往需要进一步探讨协变量与潜分组之间的关系(即带有协变量的潜类别模型)。例如, 哪些变量预测个体类别归属, 以及个体的类别归属对结果变量的预测。本文对近年来研究者提出的各种方法进行了回顾和比较。包括当结果变量是分类变量的LTB法; 当结果变量是连续变量时的BCH和稳健三步法。在此基础上, 文章为应用研究者提供了Mplus软件示例, 并在最后对当前研究存在的问题和未来研究趋势进行了简要评价。     

变量间的网络分析模型及其应用

变量间的网络分析模型近年来被广泛应用于心理学研究。不同于将潜变量作为观测变量的共同先导因素的潜变量模型, 网络分析模型将观测变量作为初级指标, 采用图论的方法建立观测变量之间的关系网络, 其中变量为网络的节点, 而变量间的关系是节点之间的连线。因此网络分析可以突显观测变量之间的联系以及观测变量相互影响而形成的系统。通过变量网络中基于各个节点特征的指标(如中心性)以及基于整体结构特征的指标(如小世界性), 网络分析为研究各种心理现象提供了新的可视化的描述方式和理解视角。近10年来, 网络分析的方法已在人格心理学、社会心理学和临床心理学等领域得到一定的应用。未来研究应继续发展和完善网络分析模型的理论和方法, 使之运用到更多的数据类型和更广的研究领域中。     

追踪研究中的内生性问题：来源与应对

相对于横断研究,追踪研究中更有可能同时存在多种内生性问题来源。双变量追踪研究在心理学因果分析中发挥了重要的作用,然而其中的内生性问题却未得到应有的关注,这可能会影响推论的准确性。追踪研究中内生性问题的来源视乎模型而定,主要包括遗漏变量、变量选择和样本选择、解释变量的测量误差、动态面板和变量之间的相互关系。本文以代表性追踪模型CLPM为例,展示了内生性问题的影响,讨论了在原模型中运用工具变量来建模以应对内生性问题的可行性,目的是使心理学研究者能够关注追踪研究中的内生性问题,更好地运用追踪模型进行因果分析。     

LGM模型中缺失数据处理方法的比较:ML方法与Diggle-Kenward选择模型

追踪研究中缺失数据十分常见。本文通过Monte Carlo模拟研究,考察基于不同前提假设的Diggle-Kenward选择模型和ML方法对增长参数估计精度的差异,并考虑样本量、缺失比例、目标变量分布形态以及不同缺失机制的影响。结果表明:(1)缺失机制对基于MAR的ML方法有较大的影响,在MNAR缺失机制下,基于MAR的ML方法对LGM模型中截距均值和斜率均值的估计不具有稳健性。(2)DiggleKenward选择模型更容易受到目标变量分布偏态程度的影响,样本量与偏态程度存在交互作用,样本量较大时,偏态程度的影响会减弱。而ML方法仅在MNAR机制下轻微受到偏态程度的影响。     

实证研究中的因果推理与分析

心理学期刊中的实证研究论文,很多时候都在检验变量之间的因果关系,但学界对因果研究存在一些不同的看法。本文试图回答下面问题:(1)实验中不能操纵的变量是否可以作为原因?(2)非实验研究能不能检验因果关系?(3)因果分析(尤其是中介分析)是否一定要使用追踪数据?追踪设计的主要目的是什么?通过因果要素和因果推理逻辑的辨析,对前面两个问题都给出了肯定的回答,并讨论了判明变量先后顺序、统计控制无关变量的方法;为了回答问题3,厘清了追踪设计在因果分析中的作用:区分变量的先后顺序、有效获得历时性的影响结果,但即时性的因果影响采用追踪设计可能是不合适的。     

协变量相关对时变效应模型参数估计的影响

时变效应模型被广泛应用于密集追踪研究中,研究者往往会同时纳入2个或以上协变量。然而,协变量相关对其参数估计的影响较少被研究者关注。本研究在不同类型协变量的情境下,采用蒙特卡洛模拟,探讨协变量相关对时变效应模型参数估计的影响,结果表明：（1）在两种协变量类型的情境下,协变量相关都会影响时变效应模型斜率函数β_1和斜率函数β_2参数估计的准确性;（2）两种协变量类型的情境下,协变量相关和样本量的交互作用都会影响时变效应模型斜率函数β_1和斜率函数β_2参数估计的准确性;（3）两种协变量类型的情境下,样本量、观测数据缺失率主要通过主效应影响时变效应模型参数估计的准确性。     

多变量追踪研究的模型整合与拓展：考察往复式影响与增长趋势

追踪研究当中, 交叉滞后模型可以探究多变量之间往复式影响, 潜增长模型可以探究个体增长趋势。对两类模型进行整合, 例如同时关注往复式影响与个体增长趋势, 同时可以定义测量误差、随机截距等变异成分, 衍生出随机截距交叉滞后模型、特质-状态-误差模型、自回归潜增长模型、结构化残差潜增长模型等。以交叉滞后模型和潜增长模型分别作为基础模型, 从个体间/个体内变异分解的角度对上述各类模型梳理, 整合出此类模型的分析框架, 并拓展建立“因子结构化潜增长模型(factor latent curve model with structured reciprocals)”作为统合框架。通过实证研究(早期儿童的追踪研究-幼儿园版, ECLS-K), 建立21049名儿童的阅读和数学能力的往复式影响与增长趋势。研究发现, 分离了稳定特质的模型拟合最优。研究也对模型建模思路和模型选择提供了建议。     

二阶潜增长模型标度方法及其可比的一阶潜增长模型

潜增长模型(LGM)是分析纵向数据的一种强有力工具,在心理学和其他社会科学研究领域受到重视。多指标测量的变量,既可以用合成分数建立单变量LGM(一阶LGM),也可以用指标建立潜变量LGM(二阶LGM)。简述了二阶LGM标度方法(包括尺度指标法和效应编码),提出了有可操作性的潜变量标准化标度方法和合成分数的一阶LGM标准化模型。系统总结了二阶LGM标度方法及其可比的一阶LGM建模,并用多指标变量的实测数据进行示例。推荐使用效应编码法对二阶LGM进行标度和标准化。     

在亚健康状态研究中运用结构方程模型的合理性

亚健康状态是处于健康与疾病之间的一种“非病但非健康”的中间状态,主要表现为躯体、心理和社会适应等方面的不适,目前尚没有公认的概念和测量诊断工具。由于亚健康状态研究数据中含有潜变量、测量误差以及变量间关系需要确定等因素,不能使用传统的统计学方法进行处理。结构方程模型能够同时处理观测变量、潜变量、测量误差及变量间的关系,应用结构方程模型验证亚健康状况测量量表的结构效度和亚健康状态理论模型是非常合理的。     

经验取样法在组织行为学中的应用

在组织行为学研究中,研究者对个体的日常经验和短期过程越来越感兴趣,经验取样法为研究这些过程提供了必要的工具。尽管近年来经验取样法的研究成果在逐渐增加,但是研究者尤其是国内研究者对该方法在组织行为学研究中所适用的主题并未有整体的认识。通过分析发表在4种组织行为学国际顶级期刊《应用心理学期刊》(Journal of Applied Psychology)、《组织行为学杂志》(Journal of Organizational Behavior)、《人事心理学》(Personnel Psychology)和《组织行为和人的决策过程》(Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes)中最新发表的67篇实证文章,以及国内期刊中相关的7篇成果,发现该方法主要应用在捕捉个体短时或瞬时的状态和感受,本文将目前运用该方法的前沿研究主题分为四大类,分别为工作感受、工作体验、工作行为和工作影响。     

Factor analysis with (mixed) observed and latent variables in the exponential family

We develop a general approach to factor analysis that involves observed and latent variables that are assumed to be distributed in the exponential family. This gives rise to a number of factor models not considered previously and enables the study of latent variables in an integrated methodological framework, rather than as a collection of seemingly unrelated special cases. The framework accommodates a great variety of different measurement scales and accommodates cases where different latent variables have different distributions. The models are estimated with the method of simulated likelihood, which allows for higher dimensional factor solutions to be estimated than heretofore. The models are illustrated on synthetic data. We investigate their performance when the distribution of the latent variables is mis-specified and when part of the observations are missing. We study the properties of the simulation estimators relative to maximum likelihood estimation with numerical integration. We provide an empirical application to the analysis of attitudes.     

A Critical Review and Best‐Practice Recommendations for Control Variable Usage

The use of control variables plays a central role in organizational research due to practical difficulties associated with the implementation of experimental and quasi‐experimental designs. As such, we conducted an in‐depth review and content analysis of what variables, and why such variables are controlled for, in 10 of the most popular research domains (task performance, organizational citizenship behaviors, turnover, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, employee burnout, personality, leader?member exchange, organizational justice, and affect) in organizational behavior/human resource management (OB/HRM) and applied psychology. Specifically, we examined 580 articles published from 2003 to 2012 in AMJ, ASQ, JAP, JOM, and PPsych. Results indicate that, across research domains with clearly distinct theoretical bases, the overwhelming majority of the more than 3,500 controls identified in our review converge around the same simple demographic factors (i.e., gender, age, tenure), very little effort is made to explain why and how controls relate to focal variables of interest, and control variable practices have not changed much over the past decade. To address these results, we offer best‐practice recommendations in the form of a sequence of questions and subsequent steps that can be followed to make decisions on the appropriateness of including a specific control variable within a particular theoretical framework, research domain, and empirical study. Our recommendations can be used by authors as well as journal editors and reviewers to improve the transparency and appropriateness of practices regarding control variable usage.     

Family business: A fertile ground for research on time,teams and positive organizational study

Further reflecting on the study of organizational behaviour (OB) in family business (FB), this rejoinder piece discusses and integrates the points raised in the three thoughtful commentaries and our original article. We start by highlighting the general agreement between us and the commentators on three points: (1) that family firms are theoretically distinct from non-family firms due to significant involvement of kinship ties in the enterprise; (2) there is paucity of research at the interface of OB and FB and (3) there is an abundance of interesting research questions at this interface with the potential to benefit both domains of study. Next, we discuss and elaborate on the research possibilities on time, teams and positive organizational study, suggested by the commentators. An illustrative list of interesting research questions at the OB–FB interface that extend and enrich our agenda for future research is shared. We conclude that not only is FB a promising context for behavioural scholars to investigate, the timing is perfect for such investigations.     

潜在剖面分析在组织行为领域中的应用

以个体为中心的研究路径将各个变量看作是相互依赖的一个系统, 基于多项特征(变量)将被试分为多个子群体, 分析子群体的前因与影响。以个体为中心的研究路径理解更加直观、更贴近实践, 受到越来越多的关注。潜在剖面分析(latent profile analysis, LPA)是以个体为中心研究路径的典型分析技术。在总结归纳以个体与以变量为中心两种研究路径异同、LPA与传统以个体为中心的分析技术差异后, 系统梳理了LPA在组织行为学领域的应用主题, 并从研究主题选取、样本要求、理论使用、剖面数量确定等方面归纳了LPA应用的步骤与注意事项。最后, 提出了未来研究的方向。     

The study of organizational behaviour in family business

Family businesses (FBs)—enterprises that are significantly influenced by family members and kinship ties—are ubiquitous and play a crucial role across all world economies. Because of the embeddedness of family and business systems in FB, these organizational forms are theoretically distinct from their non-family counterparts. Curiously, FBs have been largely overlooked in the organizational behaviour (OB) literature. The limited available research at the interface of OB and FB highlights the importance of FB as a unique context to advance OB theories, and of OB as a promising discipline to increase our understanding of FB. In a selective review of literature focused on the four topics of values and goals, leadership and power, trust and justice, and conflict, we discuss how insights from the general theory of communal and exchange relationships open exciting avenues for research at the FB-OB interface. Rich fruits of intellectual harvest await scholars who focus on behavioural research in FB.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF CAUSAL INFERENCE BETWEEN ROLE PERCEPTIONS, SATISFACTION WITH WORK, PERFORMANCE AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEVEL

Previous research has suggested that organizational level may explain to a significant extent the differential impact of role perceptions (i.e., role ambiguity and role conflict) on employee satisfaction and performance. Causal inferences could not be drawn from these studies because of the predominant use of static correlational methods. In this study, in a hospital setting, a six-month time-lag between data collection periods was used to develop causal inferences. The results supported the hypothesis that role ambiguity was a source of causal inference with satisfaction with work at the higher organizational level, while role conflict was a source of causal inference with satisfaction with work at the lower organizational level. The source and direction of causal influence with respect to role perceptions and performance was supported only at the higher organizational level.     

Generalized latent trait models

In this paper we discuss a general model framework within which manifest variables with different distributions in the exponential family can be analyzed with a latent trait model. A unified maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the generalized latent trait model will be presented. We discuss in addition the scoring of individuals on the latent dimensions. The general framework presented allows, not only the analysis of manifest variables all of one type but also the simultaneous analysis of a collection of variables with different distributions. The approach used analyzes the data as they are by making assumptions about the distribution of the manifest variables directly.     

(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some—but not all—of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.