现实理性：一个理解经济行为的框架

该将人类理性的现实表现作为理解经济行为的框架。该框架强调,主观上人类有效用最大化的追求,但由于感知觉和思维加工能力的缺陷,行为表现经常偏离理论理性。章从认知心理学的角度介绍Kahneman和Tversky的主要研究成果,包括影响最大的前景理论,其他有关算法式和偏误的研究,以及决策和情绪的关系。章的最后还介绍对Kahneman和Tversky的批评。     

瓦尔拉斯经济学的局限与拓展:亲社会偏好模型的兴起及其意义

瓦尔拉斯体系假设纯粹自利偏好的个体依靠完备契约和第三方无成本实施来维持社会运转,这在一定程度上并不符合社会运转的真实情况。更加符合现实的思路是个体偏好中并不仅仅包含自利偏好,而且包含亲社会性的他涉偏好,只有在个体具有愿意付出成本实施某种亲社会行为的偏好时,社会才可能得以存在。本文主要分析经济学领域近年来兴起的亲社会偏好模型及其对瓦尔拉斯体系的拓展,并讨论了这种趋势的经济学含义。     

基于助推的环保行为干预策略

近年来, “助推”被越来越多地用于气候变化与生态环境治理实践, 成为促进人们环保行为的有效策略。但目前国内基于助推思想的环保行为干预研究和实践探索都还很缺乏。环保行为需要助推的根本原因在于人们在环保领域的决策存在认知局限和动机不足。相应的, 在认知和动机两大视角下主要有7种环保行为助推策略。认知视角的助推策略包括默认选项、框架效应和示范性规范, 动机视角的助推策略旨在激发家国动机、遗产动机、获益动机和自主动机以促进人们的环保行为。助推环保行为在实践中也存在争议, 实践工作者需明确助推环保行为的外部环境与传统社会治理思路的关系, 并掌握选择架构设计的技术要点。     

“美德经济学”与“哥白尼革命”：陈焕章儒家经济学的性质与定位

自曼德维尔提出“私人的恶德,公共的利益”的悖论后,美德因妨碍经济发展而被驱除。亚当·斯密尝试给自利自爱正名,但仍未给仁爱的经济意义正名。陈焕章认为缺乏道德根基的放任主义只给强者带来利益,必致社会分裂和崩溃。为了阻止经济的去道德化,陈焕章认为社会经济秩序应该建立在道德和经济双重动机之上,并建构了以美德为中心的儒家经济学。向善的人性预设、美德主导分配、政府调节、适度竞争是其经济学的主要特征,这一新形态的经济学可以称作美德经济学。陈焕章美德经济学虽显粗略,但在理论上重启了经济的道德化进程,并与数十年后兴盛的经济伦理学和社群主义遥相呼应,可以说潜在地具有引发一场“哥白尼革命”的意义。     

不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响及其情景依赖性*

研究以Ellsberg选瓶任务为决策材料,探讨了不同任务特征下个体不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响。结果发现,获益情景下:高概率时高、低容忍度个体对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均偏好模糊规避;中概率时低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体表现出更低程度的模糊规避,前者倾向于模糊中立,后者倾向于模糊规避;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊中立。损失情景下:高概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊寻求;中概率时低容忍度比高容忍度个体更偏好模糊寻求,前者倾向于模糊寻求,后者倾向于模糊中立;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊规避。这表明,不确定性容忍度对模糊决策偏好产生作用,但这种作用会受到损益概率和损益结果的影响,具有情景依赖性。     

领导主动变革行为与团队绩效：团队主动变革行为和环境不确定性的作用

基于社会学习理论,研究考察了领导主动变革行为影响团队绩效的内在机制和边界条件。通过对110个团队领导和380名团队成员两阶段配对问卷调查,研究发现：（1）领导主动变革行为依次通过团队主动变革价值信念和团队主动变革行为对团队绩效产生正向影响;（2）环境不确定性正向调节领导主动变革行为与团队主动变革价值信念之间的关系,进而增强了领导主动变革行为通过团队主动变革价值信念和团队主动变革行为对团队绩效产生的正向影响。研究结果有助于推进团队层面的主动变革行为研究,同时对组织变革创新的管理实践具有重要意义。     

当代中国社会生活中非制度化行为的经济学分析

非制度化行为及其效用既决定于行为者的主观努力,也决定于制度的有效性和约束力,还受到社会习俗和传统习惯等因素的影响。如果从经济学的视角分析,非制度化行为的变量参数、博弈形式、策略选择、成本核算、心理预期等是行为主体优先考虑的因素。非制度化行为的策略选择与利益驱动有关,其运行方向决定于不同个体或团体的力量对比和博弈能力,它的成本和收益是一定条件下的帕累托优化或纳什均衡。非制度化行为的策略选择还与行为主体的"情景信任"、"品质信任"等因素有关,其边际成本和边际效用是推动行为主体跨越制度边界的重要因素,其中不仅有"风险厌恶"基础上的"效用最大化"追求,也有"风险偏好"引起的行为偏激。非制度化行为中,行为主体对基本变量的把握、对行为策略的选择、对行为效益的权衡以及对行为风险的判断是联系在一起的。     

福利经济学的伦理选择

本文依据效率与伦理两个基本标准探讨了福利经济学对于经济运行体系的伦理选择问题。首先分别讨论了福利经济学参照两个基本标准对于经济运行体系进行伦理选择的具体情况。其次分析了福利经济学在参照第二个基本标准对于经济运行体系进行伦理选择时所遇到的理论困难及其原因,即仅仅依据功利主义伦理基础的狭窄理论框架与包含道义主义伦理学在内的广阔的价值世界之间的矛盾。最后指出:通过引入道义主义伦理学作为福利经济学的伦理基础之一,特别是通过引入伦理妥协的方法解决经济学的功利主义基础与道义主义基础之间的矛盾,便可以扩展福利经济学的理论框架,消除福利经济学在参照第二个基本标准对于经济运行体系进行伦理选择时所遇到的理论困难,使福利经济学能够在新的意义上同时参照两个基本标准对于经济运行体系进行有效的伦理选择。     

人工智能辅助决策如何影响医患信任？——以技术不确定性为中心的考察

明确的惩罚机制、清晰的风险受益比、积极的信任倾向是建立医患信任所必要的确定性依据。人工智能辅助决策因为技术本身不确定、技术认知不确定、技术制度不确定等,冲击着医患信任的确定性基础,加剧医患信任危机。为降低辅助决策的不确定性,在新的技术条件下增进医患之间互相信任,应针对技术本身的不确定,增强辅助决策的可解释性;针对技术认知的不确定,推动辅助决策的民主化设计;针对技术制度的不确定,渐次推进伦理结构化。

     

不对称社会困境中的决策:行为的双重模式

社会困境中的互依结构与不对称关系共同造就了两种不同且稳定的社会知觉模式。与此相应,个体存在两种行为模式,即(1)关注于力量与分层的垂直模式;(2)关注于道德与和谐的水平模式。在不对称社会困境中,那些在社会中占据强势位置的个体更可能采取垂直取向的行为模式,从而做出背叛选择,而那些占据弱势位置的个体则更可能采取水平取向的行为模式,从而做出合作选择。然而,个体动机会改变这种不对称社会结构与社会困境中决策之间的关系。这一观点很好地解释了相关研究,但仍需要深入发展和检验。     

Social Emotions and Intertemporal Choice: "Hot" Mechanisms for Building Social and Economic Capital

ABSTRACT— Individuals regularly confront situations in which acceptance of short-term costs may lead to long-term gains. Given that individuals frequently discount the utility of future benefits with respect to more immediate ones, successfully solving such intertemporal choice dilemmas has been theorized to involve self-regulation aimed at controlling emotional responses that are sensitive to immediate rewards. In this article, I argue for a more multifaceted view of the role played by emotions in intertemporal choice. In support of this view, I review emerging evidence demonstrating the ability of specific, socially oriented emotions to facilitate behaviors designed to build social and economic capital in the long run.     

Choice Blindness and Preference Change: You Will Like This Paper Better If You (Believe You) Chose to Read It!

Choice blindness is the finding that participants both often fail to notice mismatches between their decisions and the outcome of their choice and, in addition, endorse the opposite of their chosen alternative. But do these preference reversals also carry over to future choices and ratings? To investigate this question, we gave participants the task of choosing which of a pair of faces they found most attractive. Unknown to them, we sometimes used a card trick to exchange one face for the other. Both decision theory and common sense strongly suggest that most people would easily notice such a radical change in the outcome of a choice. But that was not the case: no more than a third of the exchanges were detected by the participants. We also included a second round of choices using the same face pairs, and two stages of post‐choice attractiveness ratings of the faces. This way we were able to measure preference strength both as choice consistency and by looking at measures of rating differences between chosen and rejected options. We found that the initially rejected faces were chosen more frequently in the second choice, and the perceived attractiveness of these faces was increased even in uncoupled individual ratings at the end of the experiment. This result is discussed in relation to Chen and Risen's recent criticism of the Free Choice Paradigm, as it shows that choices can affect future preferences. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision Neuroscience: New Directions in Studies of Judgment and Decision Making

ABSTRACT— Investigations of decision making have historically been undertaken by different disciplines, each using different techniques and assumptions, and few unifying efforts have been made. Economists have focused on precise mathematical models of normative decision making, psychologists have examined how decisions are actually made based on cognitive constraints, and neuroscientists have concentrated on the detailed operation of neural systems in simple choices. In recent years, however, researchers in these separate fields have joined forces in an attempt to better specify the foundations of decision making. This interdisciplinary effort has begun to use decision theory to guide the search for the neural bases of reward value and predictability. Concurrently, these formal models are beginning to incorporate processes such as social reward and emotion. The combination of these diverse theoretical approaches and methodologies is already yielding significant progress in the construction of more comprehensive decision-making models.     

EMERGENCE OF REINFORCER PREFERENCE AS A FUNCTION OF SCHEDULE REQUIREMENTS AND STIMULUS SIMILARITY

Tustin (1994) recently observed that an individual's preference for one of two concurrently available reinforcers under low schedule requirements (concurrent fixed-ratio [FR] 1) switched to the other reinforcer when the schedule requirements were high (concurrent FR 10). We extended this line of research by examining preference for similar and dissimilar reinforcers (i.e., those affecting the same sensory modality and those affecting different sensory modalities). Two individuals with developmental disabilities were exposed to an arrangement in which pressing two different panels produced two different reinforcers according to progressively increasing, concurrent-ratio schedules. When two dissimilar stimuli were concurrently available (food and a leisure item), no clear preference for one item over the other was observed, regardless of the FR schedules in effect (FR 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20). By contrast, when two similar stimuli were concurrently available (two food items), a clear preference for one item emerged as the schedule requirements were increased from FR 1 to FR 5 or FR 10. These results are discussed in terms of implications for conducting preference assessments and for selecting reinforcers to be used under training conditions in which response requirements are relatively high or effortful.     

心理会计与推理选择研究的新进展

心理会计与推理选择是行为决策理论的两个重要领域,本文主要综述它们在消费者偏好建构中的作用。研究表明,心理会计的原则常常调节对奢侈品的购买与消费;在这一调节过程中,推理可能发挥重要作用。本文还评述,在建构消费偏好的过程中,消费者有时选择最充分的理由,而不是选择最佳的选项;在其它一些情况下,消费者聚焦理由可能导致购买决策与消费体验之间的矛盾,以及偏好的非传递性。     

资源两难问题的研究及其新进展

作为多人社会两难问题的基本范式之一,近年来资源两难问题引起了包括社会学家、经济学家和心理学家在内诸多领域研究者越来越多的关注。文章介绍了资源两难问题的定义、特点、研究意义并总结了以往的研究成果,着重介绍了Samuelson和Messick于1994年提出的资源两难决策模型。在此基础上进一步指出以往研究存在的一些不足,如忽视了对不确定性的研究等。文章最后指出了近年来有关资源两难问题的研究在心理学界的发展,并提出了对以后研究的一些建议。