Framing experts' (dis)agreements about uncertain environmental events

Agreements and disagreements between expert statements influence lay people's beliefs. But few studies have examined what is perceived as a disagreement. We report six experiments where people rated agreement between pairs of probabilistic statements about environmental events, attributed to two different experts or to the same expert at two different points in time. The statements differed in frame, by focusing on complementary outcomes (45% probability that smog will have negative health effects vs. 55% probability that it will not have such effects), in probability level (45% vs. 55% probability of negative effects), or in both respects. Opposite frames strengthened disagreement when combined with different probability levels. Approximate probabilities can be “framed” in yet another way by indicating reference values they are “over” or “under”. Statements that use different directional verbal terms (over vs. under 50%) indicated greater disagreement than statements with the same directional term but different probability levels (over 50% vs. over 70%). Framing and directional terms similarly affected consistency judgments when both statements were issued by the same expert at different occasions. The effect of framing on perceived agreement was significant for medium (10 and 20 percentage points) differences between probabilities, whereas the effect of directional term was stable for numerical differences up to 40 percentage points. To emphasize agreement between different estimates, they should be framed in the same way. To accentuate disagreements or changes of opinion, opposite framings should be used.     

The moral psychology of rationing among physicians: the role of harm and fairness intuitions in physician objections to cost-effectiveness and cost-containment

Introduction

Physicians vary in their moral judgments about health care costs. Social intuitionism posits that moral judgments arise from gut instincts, called “moral foundations.” The objective of this study was to determine if “harm” and “fairness” intuitions can explain physicians’ judgments about cost-containment in U.S. health care and using cost-effectiveness data in practice, as well as the relative importance of those intuitions compared to “purity”, “authority” and “ingroup” in cost-related judgments.

Methods

We mailed an 8-page survey to a random sample of 2000 practicing U.S. physicians. The survey included the MFQ30 and items assessing agreement/disagreement with cost-containment and degree of objection to using cost-effectiveness data to guide care. We used t-tests for pairwise subscale mean comparisons and logistic regression to assess associations with agreement with cost-containment and objection to using cost-effectiveness analysis to guide care.

Results

1032 of 1895 physicians (54%) responded. Most (67%) supported cost-containment, while 54% expressed a strong or moderate objection to the use of cost-effectiveness data in clinical decisions. Physicians who strongly objected to the use of cost-effectiveness data had similar scores in all five of the foundations (all p-values?>?0.05). Agreement with cost-containment was associated with higher mean “harm” (3.6) and “fairness” (3.5) intuitions compared to “in-group” (2.8), “authority” (3.0), and “purity” (2.4) (p?<?0.05). In multivariate models adjusted for age, sex, region, and specialty, both “harm” and “fairness” were significantly associated with judgments about cost-containment (OR?=?1.2 [1.0-1.5]; OR?=?1.7 [1.4-2.1], respectively) but were not associated with degree of objection to cost-effectiveness (OR?=?1.2 [1.0-1.4]; OR?=?0.9 [0.7-1.0]).

Conclusions

Moral intuitions shed light on variation in physician judgments about cost issues in health care.

     

Comprehension of "absence" by an African Grey parrot: Learning with respect to questions of same/different

An African Grey parrot, Alex, learned to report on the absence or presence of similarity and difference between two objects. Alex was shown pairs of objects that were (a) totally dissimilar, (b) identical, or (c) similar or different with respect to one of three attributes (color, shape, or material). In the first two cases, he responded to the respective queries of “What's same?” or “What's different?” with the vocalization “none,” and in the third case he responded with the appropriate category label (“color,” “shape,” or “mah-mah” [matter]). His accuracy was 80.9% to 83.9% for pairs of familiar objects not used in training and 72.5% to 78.4% for pairs whose colors, shapes, and materials were unfamiliar. The data provide evidence that this parrot's abilities are comparable to those of mammals that have been trained to report on the presence or absence of objects or features of objects.     

Retention and Recall: Incidental Learning of Visual and Auditory Material

This study examined the effect on observer agreement of switching from a system of overt reliability assessment to two successive systems of covert reliability measurement. A primary purpose was to see whether agreement obtained with the use of covert data checks would improve over time if observers were provided with accurate feedback regarding their level of agreement. Seventeen undergraduate psychology students served as Ss. They observed instructional interactions between preschool children and their teachers. During the two week “overt” check period (Phase I), observers were aware of when their observations were being “checked” by a previously designated reliability assessor. In the subsequent covert phases (weeks 3–7) this information was not available to them during the observational sessions. When covert monitoring was implemented, agreement rates initially dropped significantly below the “overt” measurement phase. Gradually agreement rates improved until, in weeks 6 and 7, they were not significantly different from the initial overt measures. Es should be aware that an overt check on observer agreement may not reflect the true reliability of an observational system. However, when observers are given accurate feedback on their level of agreement, they are able significantly to improve their vigilance and consistency in the use of the observational system.     

Accuracy and differentiation in social prediction: A developmental perspective1

Two studies examined the accuracy and differentiation of 4–5-yearolds‘, 8–9-year-olds’, and undergraduates' predictions of the preferences of peers and nonpeers. In Study 1 each subject was presented with separate arrays of snacks, meals, and activities depicted on cards and were asked to select their own preferences and the preferences of peers and nonpeers (“grown-ups” for the children, and “4- to 5-year-olds” for the undergraduates). In Study 2 each subject selected his or her own preference, the preference of peers, and the preferences of both older nonpeers (“grown-ups”) and younger nonpeers (“2-year-olds”). For all age groups, including 4–5-year-olds: (1) the preference predictions differentiated peers from nonpeers, as well as older nonpeers from younger nonpeers; (2) it was very rare for a subject to select his or her own preferences for the preference predictions of both peers and nonpeers. There were no consistent developmental differences either in the tendency to select one's own preferences when predicting the preferences of others or in the tendency to differentiate predictions for peers and nonpeers. In contrast, there was a clear developmental increase in predictive accuracy, with 4–5-year-olds being relatively inaccurate in predicting the preferences of nonpeers. The inadequacy of constructs such as “assumed similarity” and “egocentrism” as explanations for the general accuracy in predicting peers' preferences and the 4–5-year-olds' inaccuracy in predicting nonpeers' preferences is discussed. Possible alternative variables underlying developmental increases in judgmental accuracy, such as “social reference,”“self reference,” and “social category knowledge,” are then proposed.     

知道感（FOK）和不知道感（FOnK）的双向实验分离

为了实现FOK（feeling-of-knowing）和FonK（feeling-of-not-knowing）的双向分离,实验一采用高频词或者低频词为线索项目,检验FOK和FOnK的预测准确性。结果发现,在低频线索条件下FOK的预测准确性表现出高于FOnK的预测准确性的趋势,而在高频线索条件下则正好相反,但上述两组差异并未在统计学上达到显著的程度。实验二采用词－非词对和相关词对两种实验条件,在证明相关词对条件可以促进FOK并降低FOnK的同时,观察到词－非词条件可以促进FOnK并降低FOK,从而在较为严格的意义上证明了FOK和FOnK是两个不同的维度的量。上述结果为知道感的“双过程假设”提供了进一步的实验证据     

The Role of Conversation in Developing Accurate Political Perceptions: A Multilevel Social Network Approach

We employed social network data from 25 randomly sampled voluntary associations to understand the factors associated with accurate perceptions of candidate preferences of group members. We analyzed relationships at the dyadic level, but also considered the overall accuracy of perceptions by each ego of all alters (“perceptiveness”) and the overall accuracy of perception by all alters of each ego (“explicitness”) regarding candidate preferences using multilevel modeling techniques. We found low levels of accuracy on average, but high variability and differential patterns of prediction of perceptiveness and explicitness. There was a strong, consistent link between the frequency of communication and accuracy both at the dyadic and aggregate levels which was moderated by the homophily of political preferences within the group.     

Is Mainstream Psychological Research “Womanless” and “Raceless”? An Updated Analysis

In the late 20th century, mainstream psychological research was accused of being “womanless” and “raceless” by excluding women and members of racial-ethnic minority groups and by interpreting their experiences as deviant from White male norms. The present article provides an updated analysis of the state of psychological research by examining research published in 2007 in eight prominent journals across four subdisciplines (N?=?255). Two types of data were examined: (1) gender and racial-ethnic representation at the levels of editor, senior author, and participant, and (2) the presence of biased assumptions in reporting tendencies. Representation was interpreted in relation to relevant baselines drawn from U.S. data. Women and members of racial-ethnic minority groups do not appear to be underrepresented as editors in mainstream psychology. However, women continue to be underrepresented as senior authors, and members of racial-ethnic minority groups continue to be underrepresented as research participants. Furthermore, studies using predominately male or White samples (vs. female or racial-ethnic minority samples) were less likely to indicate participant gender or race-ethnicity in the title and marginally less likely to provide a rationale for including participants of only one social group, consistent with the notion that reporting tendencies within mainstream psychological research continue to reflect assumptions that men and Whites are more typical members of the category “human” than are women and racial-ethnic minorities. These findings indicate that mainstream psychology has not yet reached social equity and that efforts to increase diversity and decrease subtle biases should continue to be supported and funded.     

Priming effect in affirmative complex conditional connectives

We report the results of an experiment that examined the mental representations underlying the comprehension of complex conditional connectives (such as “A, on condition that B”) and the conditional if (such as “A, if B”). The mental representations during the comprehension stage were analysed using a “priming methodology”. The experiment showed that participants read the possibility “A and not-B” faster when it was primed by “A, if B” than when it was primed by “A, on condition that B”. The finding suggests that people understand the sentence “A, on condition that B” as biconditional; other possibilities (“A and B”, “not-A and B”, “not-A and not-B”) were primed equally by both connectives. We discuss the implications of this for current theories of reasoning.     

Exposing information sharing as strategic behavior: power as responsibility and “Trust” buttons

Online platforms' success depends on individual's information sharing (IS). However, previous research showed that “knowledge is power” is a default‐perception in organizations and that individuals share relatively unimportant information while keeping the important private information for themselves. Trust has also been identified as important enabler of IS. We examined the role of power construed as responsibility for others' outcomes and of a “Trust” button, a theory‐inspired technological feature, using a 2(Power construals: opportunity vs. responsibility) × 2(Buttons: “Like” vs. “Like‐or‐Trust”) × 2(Information sharedness as within‐subjects factor; public, private) design. Findings showed that construing power as responsibility and “Trust” button's presence increased the sharing of private information; clicking behavior yielded insights into the underlying mechanisms. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Accuracy and Confidence of Duration Estimates Following Questions Containing Marked and Unmarked Modifiers1

Eighty-five subjects were engaged in a two-person discussion for 20 minutes or for 40 minutes. Half of each group was tested immediately and the remainder one week later for their estimate of the duration of the discussion. Postevent questions were phrased with either a marked modifier (“How short was our discussion?”) or an unmarked modifier (“How long was our discussion?”), or subjects were tested using a non-leading noun-form statement (“What was the duration of our discussion?”). Sixty-seven percent of all subjects underestimated and 31% overestimated their respective durations. Accuracy of time estimation was unrelated to the length of the discussion or to the time of test. The adverb short on average produced overestimations, whereas the adverb long and the noun duration on average produced underestimations. No relationship was found between accuracy of estimation and certainty of estimation.     

Switching attention within and between categories: Evidence for intracategory inhibition

In a variation of the Posner and Snyder (1975b) paradigm, subjects made speeded “same” or “different” responses to pairs of digits or letters on the basis of name identity (Experiment 1) or physical identity (Experiment 2). Each target pair was preceded by an informative (letter or digit) or noninformative (plus-sign) warning signal. The letter or digit represented by an informative warning signal had a high probability of appearing in the subsequent target pair (expected condition). On trials in which the expected stimulus did not appear in the target pair, the target pair belonged with equal probability to either the same category (either letters or digits) as the expected stimulus or to the opposite category (unexpected-similar and unexpected-opposite conditions, respectively). The pattern of “benefits” and “costs” of attentional expectancy found by Posner and Snyder for “same” responses was replicated: Subjects were faster and more accurate in the expected condition than in the neutral (uninformative warning signal) condition, but slower and less accurate in the unexpected conditions. Present theoretical interest concerns “same” response times and accuracy for the two unexpected conditions. Under instructions emphasizing accuracy as well as speed (Experiments 1 and 2), performance was worse in the unexpected-similar condition than in the unexpected-opposite condition. Only when instructions deemphasized accuracy (Experiment 2) was performance better in the unexpected-similar condition than in the unexpected-opposite condition. The fact that subjects may have more difficulty switching attention within a category than between categories (at least when instructions emphasize accuracy as well as speed) contrasts sharply with current theoretical emphasis on intracategorical facilitation effects in the priming paradigm. The results are interpreted within the framework of a model of attention (Keele & Neill, 1978) in which the activation of associates to the focus of attention is actively and optionally suppressed so as to reduce present or potential interference with the focal information processing.     

The effect of irrelevant surround on speeded visual discriminations varying in complexity

To measure the effect of varying stimulus material on visual matching, a three-factor experimental design was employed, with “same”-“different” RT as the main dependent variable. Pairs of sequences of meaningless shapes served as stimuli, varying in discriminability (high or low), complexity (sequence lengths of 1, 2, 5, or 8 shapes), and level of pair difference (identical sequences or sequences with one pair differing). All independent variables significantly affected RT, with (a) high-discriminability stimuli being reacted to faster than low, (b)RT increasing with sequence pair length, and (c)“same”-response RTs interacting with “different”-response RTs. A significant triple-order interaction component implied that, while a single-process self-terminating feature testing model could accommodate data from the low-discriminability condition, the high-discriminability data did not fit this model. The results are taken as support for a dual-process model to account for the data from “same”-“different” RT tasks. epaxtment of     

Kept Under the Hood: Neglect of the Clitoris in Common Vernacular

Even though the “clitoris” is the organ homologous to the “penis,” this term may not be commonly used as the female counterpart to the penis. We conducted three studies to examine the usage of terminology for female sexual anatomy. In the first study 57 books in a university computer database for “sex instruction” were examined for the inclusion of terms such as penis, clitoris, vagina, vulva, and uterus. Penis was mentioned more often than either the clitoris or vulva in these books. In the second and third studies we investigated the terminology used by college students as well as their sexual attitudes and knowledge. Participants in the studies were Euro-American (76%/76%, Study 2/Study 3 respectively), Hispanic (18%/14%), and African American (4%/7%); students reported that they were overwhelmingly taught vagina as the female counterpart to the penis. Believing that the inner portion of the vagina is the most sexually sensitive part of the female body correlated with negative attitudes toward masturbation (Study 2) and agreement with sex myths (Studies 2 and 3).     

The McMaster Model of Family Functioning: Observer and Parental Ratings in a Nonclinical Sample

The McMaster Model of Family Functioning defines seven dimensions, which may be assessed either by an observer applying a Clinical Rating Scale (CRS) to a semi-structured interview of the family and/or by family members completing a questionnaire, the Family Assessment Device (FAD). The present article applied both methods of assessment, as well as the Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS), to a nonclinical sample (N = 105 ). Interobserver reliability on the CRS was highly significant. Parent (FAD) vs. observer (CRS) agreement was also highly significant, except for Affective Responsiveness and Behavior Control, for which agreement was barely significant. When families were labeled as “healthy” or “unhealthy” according to cut-offs, agreement between observers and parents was high (87%), and disagreements illuminated dynamics of individual families. Finally, the DAS (completed by mothers) was significantly correlated with both the CRS and the FAD, particularly for General Functioning.     

Episodic feeling-of-knowing relies on noncriterial recollection and familiarity: Evidence using an online remember-know procedure

We examined the hypothesis that feeling-of-knowing judgments rely on recollection as well as on familiarity prompted by the cue presentation. A remember-know-no memory procedure was combined with the episodic FOK procedure employing a cue–target pair memory task. The magnitude of FOK judgments and FOK accuracy were examined as a function of recollection, familiarity, or the “no memory” option. Results showed that the proportion of R and K responses was similar. FOK accuracy and magnitude of FOK judgments were higher for R and K responses than for N responses. FOK accuracy related to R and K responses were above chance level, but FOK was not accurate in the “no memory” condition. Finally, both FOK magnitude and FOK accuracy were related more to recollection than to familiarity. These results support the hypothesis that both recollection and familiarity are determinants of the FOK process, although they suggest that recollection has a stronger influence.     

Categorical perception of facial expressions of emotion: Evidence from multidimensional scaling

Recent studies have shown that the perception of facial expressions of emotion fits the criteria of categorical perception (CP). The present paper tests whether a pattern of categories emerges when facial expressions are examined within the framework of multidimensional scaling. Blends of five “pure” expressions (Angry, Sad, Surprised, Happy, Neutral) were created using computerised “morphing”, providing the stimuli for four experiments. Instead of attempting to identify these stimuli, subjects described the proximities between them, using two quite different forms of data: similarity comparisons, and sorting partitions. Multidimensional scaling techniques were applied to integrate the resulting ordinal-level data into models which represent the interstimulus similarities at ratio level. All four experiments yielded strong evidence that the expressions were perceived in distinct categories. Adjacent pairs in the models were not spaced at equal intervals, but were clustered together as if drawn towards a “perceptual magnet”; within each category. We argue that spatial representations are compatible with CP effects, and indeed are a useful tool for investigating them.     

A study identifying the origins of different types of drink driving events through the lens of deterrence: Is it alcohol abuse or avoiding detection?

BackgroundWhile attempts to identify the mechanisms to effectively deter drink driving remains a central focus for road safety researchers, scant scientific enquiry has simultaneously examined perceptions of apprehension risk in combination with substance abuse. This may be considered a significant oversight given that such constructs may create opposing forces, or alternatively, alcohol abuse and punishment avoidance may create cumulative effects and promote offending behaviours.MethodThis paper reports on an investigation of 718 Queensland motorists' self-reported perceptions of classical and reconceptualised deterrence constructs (as well as alcohol consumption) in order to determine what factors have the greatest effect on promoting drink driving, particularly alcohol consumption or punishment avoidance. The sample completed an online or paper version of the questionnaire.Results“Possible” drink driving events were slightly more common (25.5%) than “acknowledged” drink driving events (16.6%). Future intentions to drink and drive (23.4%) were more common among those who reported an “acknowledged” drink driving event (63.5% reported future intentions to drink drive) than a “possible” drink driving event (47.5%). Sequential binary logistic regression models conducted for each drink driving category revealed that having “risky” drinking behaviour and both direct personal and indirect experience of punishment for a drink driving offence were predictors of “possible” drink driving events. Similarly, “acknowledged” drink driving had the same significant predictors with the addition of increases in age and punishment severity reducing the likelihood of drink driving and direct punishment avoidance having a positive effect. However, and importantly, only direct punishment avoidance and past “possible” and “acknowledged” drink driving events predicted future intentions to offend in the final model, which further reinforces that drink driving is a deliberate decision (rather than stemming primarily from impairment).Practical applications: The findings provide support for increased policing efforts to identify drink drivers.