Information Distortion and Voting Choices: The Origins and Effects of Factual Beliefs in Initiative Elections

To account for voter decision making in initiative elections, we integrate theory and research on public opinion, misinformation, and motivated reasoning. Heuristic and motivated reasoning literatures suggest that voters' preexisting values interact with political sophistication such that politically knowledgeable voters develop systematically distorted empirical beliefs relevant to the initiatives on their ballots. These beliefs, in turn, can predict voting preferences even after controlling for underlying values, regardless of one's political sophistication. These hypotheses were tested using a 2003 voter survey conducted prior to a statewide initiative election that repealed a workplace safety regulation. Results showed that only those voters knowledgeable of key endorsements had initiative-specific beliefs that lined up with their underlying antiregulation values. Also, voters' empirical beliefs had an effect on initiative support even after controlling for prior values, and political sophistication did not moderate this effect.     

When implicit fails: Explicit but not implicit attitudes predict choices of decided and undecided voters

IntroductionA recent study (Friese et al., 2012) involving two major political elections in the US and Germany reported that voting behavior was better predicted by explicit than implicit attitudes for both decided and undecided voters and that when voting behavior was predicted by implicit attitudes, the prediction was better for decided than undecided voters.ObjectiveWe conducted a comparable study for the 2012 French presidential election using voter volatility as a measure of voter decidedness, in order to test the generalizability of the findings of Friese et al. (2012).MethodParticipants’ voting intention, explicit and implicit attitudes towards the candidates Sarkozy and Hollande were collected during the 2 weeks separating the two rounds of the election.ResultsOur findings confirm that explicit attitudes outperform implicit attitudes when predicting voting choice, but not that the relationship between implicit attitudes and voting intention is moderated by voter decidedness.ConclusionFurther research is needed in order to test whether the moderation of implicit attitudes by voter decidedness is a robust finding or not.     

Beyond de Tocqueville: The roles of vertical and horizontal individualism and conservatism in the 2004 U.S. presidential election

Individualism is a fundamental value to U.S. culture and democracy. We differentiate the horizontal from vertical dimension of individualism to predict voting in the 2004 presidential election. Horizontal individualism (HI) values equality and uniqueness, whereas vertical individualism (VI) values competition and achievement. In line with the value-expressive function of attitudes and voter–politician congruency principles, we show how and when HI and VI affect voters' attitudes and voting. A pilot study revealed that VI correlated with vote; those who scored higher on VI were more likely to vote for Bush. Study 1 replicated these findings with a broader sample and a regression approach. The influence of individualism was less predictive than VI in both studies. In Study 2, we proposed that the effect of VI and HI values on voting decisions is mediated by political conservatism, which in turn predicts voters' trait assessment of candidates and voting decision. Path analysis of the data from a national survey supported our expectation among respondents with high political involvement, the context in which value-expressive attitudes are more pronounced. Taken together, these studies advance our theoretical understanding of HI, VI, and individualism, as well as the process underlying the effect of values on decisions.     

Framing effects: An analytic-holistic perspective

Under what conditions, why, and for whom are framing effects most likely? In this paper, we build on the existing literature (e.g., Chaiken, 1987; Epstein, Lipson, Holstein, & Huh, 1992; Evans & Over, 1996; Fiske & Neuberg, 1990; Payne, Bettman, & Johnson, 1988; Simon, 1956; Sloman, 1996; Stanovich & West, 2000), in providing answers to these questions. We hypothesized that individuals who engage a decision task with an analytic/systematic versus holistic/heuristic processing style are especially insensitive to the influence of framing effects. Therefore, we predicted that the way in which a decision is framed should have a relatively weak influence on those who were either induced (Experiment 1) or predisposed (Experiment 2) to adopt a predominantly analytic/systematic versus holistic/heuristic processing style. The results of both experiments supported this position.     

Beyond the three-component model of organizational commitment

This article offers a conceptual critique of the three-component model (TCM) of organizational commitment (Allen & Meyer, 1990) and proposes a reconceptualization based on standard attitude theory. The authors use the attitude-behavior model by Eagly and Chaiken (1993) to demonstrate that the TCM combines fundamentally different attitudinal phenomena. They argue that general organizational commitment can best be understood as an attitude regarding the organization, while normative and continuance commitment are attitudes regarding specific forms of behavior (i.e., staying or leaving). The conceptual analysis shows that the TCM fails to qualify as general model of organizational commitment but instead represents a specific model for predicting turnover. The authors suggest that the use of the TCM be restricted to this purpose and that Eagly and Chaiken's model be adopted as a generic commitment model template from which a range of models for predicting specific organizational behaviors can be extracted. Finally, they discuss the definition and measurement of the organizational commitment attitude. Covering the affective, cognitive, and behavioral facets of this attitude helps to enhance construct validity and to differentiate the construct from other constructs.     

Multiple endorsers and multiple endorsements: The influence of message repetition,source congruence and involvement on brand attitudes

This paper investigates the effects of source congruence on brand attitudes in two situations: multiple brand endorsements by one celebrity and multiple celebrity endorsers of one brand. Under low involvement conditions, brand attitudes become more negative as a celebrity endorses multiple brands and more favorable with multiple endorsers. In high involvement conditions, strong source congruence overrides the negative effect of multiple brands, and the positive effect of multiple endorsers is found only with strong congruence. We interpret these results as suggestive of a frequency knowledge cue that dominates under low involvement but is non-diagnostic in high involvement scenarios.     

Measuring voting power for dependent voters through causal models

We construct a new measure of voting power that yields reasonable measurements even if the individual votes are not cast independently. Our measure hinges on probabilities of counterfactuals, such as the probability that the outcome of a collective decision would have been yes, had a voter voted yes rather than no as she did in the real world. The probabilities of such counterfactuals are calculated on the basis of causal information, following the approach by Balke and Pearl. Opinion leaders whose votes have causal influence on other voters’ votes can have significantly more voting power under our measure. But the new measure of voting power is also sensitive to the voting rule. We show that our measure can be regarded as an average treatment effect, we provide examples in which it yields intuitively plausible results and we prove that it reduces to Banzhaf voting power in the limiting case of independent and equiprobable votes.

     

Predicting the Vote through Implicit and Explicit Attitudes: A Field Research

Using the data collected by Itanes on a sample of the Italian population, representative according to the main sociodemographic variables, we analyzed the relations between voting intention, explicit and implicit political attitudes, and voting behavior. Participants (N = 1,377) were interviewed twice, both before and after the 2006 Italian National Election. The implicit attitudes (measured using the IAT) were substantially as effective as voting intention, and more effective than the explicit attitudes towards the main Italian political leaders, in forecasting the Election official results. When used to predict participants' voting behavior, the IAT added a significant, although slight, power to voting intention and explicit attitude. Inconsistency between explicit and implicit attitudes exerted a negative influence on the probability of having decided one's voting behavior in the preelectoral poll; however, among undecided participants, it did not significantly influence the probability of delaying one's voting decision and that of actually casting a valid vote. Limits and possible developments of this research are discussed.     

Voting “Against Islamization”? How Anti‐Islamic Right‐Wing,Populist Political Campaign Ads Influence Explicit and Implicit Attitudes Toward Muslims as Well as Voting Preferences

We explore the effects of anti‐Islamic right‐wing, populist political campaign ads on voting intention for a right‐wing populist party using a quota‐based online experiment (N = 174). Additionally, we investigate implicit attitudes (i.e., automatic affective associations) and explicit attitudes (i.e., overtly expressed evaluations) toward Muslims as underlying mechanisms of these effects. We find that exposure to the political campaign ads prompts explicit hostile attitudes toward Muslims mediated by implicit attitudes. Explicit attitudes in turn shape voting intention. Moreover, implicit attitudes toward Muslims predict voting preference beyond the influence of explicit attitudes. Thus, resentments toward Muslims may foster voters’ support for anti‐Islamic right‐wing populist parties even “under the radar” of conscious awareness. In sum, this study demonstrates for the first time the entire process of right‐wing, populist political campaign ads’ effects on voting preferences via implicit and explicit attitudes toward Muslims.     

Measuring voting power for dependent voters through causal models

We construct a new measure of voting power that yields reasonable measurements even if the individual votes are not cast independently. Our measure hinges on probabilities of counterfactuals, such as the probability that the outcome of a collective decision would have been yes, had a voter voted yes rather than no as she did in the real world. The probabilities of such counterfactuals are calculated on the basis of causal information, following the approach by Balke and Pearl. Opinion leaders whose votes have causal influence on other voters’ votes can have significantly more voting power under our measure. But the new measure of voting power is also sensitive to the voting rule. We show that our measure can be regarded as an average treatment effect, we provide examples in which it yields intuitively plausible results and we prove that it reduces to Banzhaf voting power in the limiting case of independent and equiprobable votes.     

Justice and employee attitudes during organizational change: The mediating role of overall justice

IntroductionSeveral studies have investigated the mediating role of overall justice (OJ) in the relationships between specific dimensions of justice and employee attitudes. However, prior research has neglected to examine OJ during the process of organizational change, as suggested in fairness heuristic theory (FHT).ObjectiveThis study aims to replicate the results of previous studies and expand them by examining, in two contexts of organizational change implementation, the mediating role of OJ in the relationships between procedural, interpersonal, and informational justice (PJ, ITJ, and IFJ, respectively) and employee attitudes (job satisfaction, turnover intentions, and organizational commitment).MethodologyWe surveyed 537 employees experiencing a company reorganization (Study 1) and 188 employees experiencing a merger (Study 2).ResultsEach dimension of justice is related to OJ, which in turn is associated to employee attitudes. Furthermore, bootstrap results indicated that OJ mediates the effects of PJ, ITJ, and IFJ on job satisfaction and turnover intentions (in both studies), and on affective, normative, and continuance commitment (in Study 2).ConclusionOur findings show the importance of fairness during organizational change. Treating employees fairly in times of change is crucial for managers.     

The impact of death qualification, belief in a just world, legal authoritarianism, and locus of control on venirepersons' evaluations of aggravating and mitigating circumstances in capital trials

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of death qualification, belief in a just world (BJW), legal authoritarianism (RLAQ), and locus of control (LOC) on venirepersons' evaluations of aggravating and mitigating circumstances in capital trials. 212 venirepersons from the 12th Judicial Circuit in Bradenton, FL, completed a booklet that contained the following: one question that measured their attitudes toward the death penalty; one question that categorized their death-qualification status; the BJW, LOC, and RLAQ scales; a summary of the guilt and penalty phases of a capital case; a 26-item measure that required participants to evaluate aggravators, nonstatutory mitigators, and statutory mitigators on a 6-point Likert scale; sentence preference; and standard demographic questions. Results indicated that death-qualified venirepersons were more likely to demonstrate higher endorsements of aggravating factors and lower endorsements of both nonstatutory and statutory mitigating factors. Death-qualified participants were also more likely to have a high belief in a just world, espouse legal authoritarian beliefs, and exhibit an internal locus of control. Findings also suggested that venirepersons with a low belief in a just world and an external locus of control demonstrated higher endorsements of statutory mitigators. Participants with legal authoritarian beliefs revealed higher endorsements of aggravators and lower endorsements of nonstatutory mitigators. Legal implications and applications are discussed.     

Regulatory Fit and Voting1

The problem of many democracies is low voter turnout. One reason is the voting procedure, which only allows voting for a party or candidate. Introduction of voting against could bring more voters to the polls. The concept of regulatory focus ( Higgins, 1998 ) suggests that people who focus on prevention would vote more eagerly if they are given the opportunity to blackball disliked candidates. This article describes 2 studies that verify this hypothesis. In the first study, over two thirds of participants declared that they would vote more willingly if they had a “for or against” choice at the election. The second study shows that the “pro or anti” formula is especially attractive to participants with a prevention regulatory focus.     

Stigmatized‐Identity Cues in Consumer Spaces

Consumers with stigmatized identities may be especially attentive to organizational cues that signal to them whether or not they are welcomed and valued consumers. These stigmatized‐identity cues can become a part of a company's brand, influencing the attractiveness of the company and consumer loyalty, and allowing consumers to draw inferences about an organization's ideologies and attitudes toward multiple stigmatized groups. Consumers with stigmatized identities attend to stigmatized‐identity cues that signal inclusion (or exclusion) toward other stigmatized groups, resulting in stigmatized‐identity cue transfers, especially when similarity mindsets are activated, and among consumers who are high in stigma solidarity. Because identity is central in consumer behavior, stigmatized‐identity threat cues can at times result in anti‐consumption, including boycotts, allowing consumers and companies to engage in collective action. This article reviews this growing body of research, demonstrating the important influence of stigmatized‐identity cues on consumer behavior and discussing ways in which companies can better signal their inclusive attitudes and ideologies to attract consumers.     

The interactive effects of job advertisement characteristics and applicant experience on reactions to recruitment messages

Job seekers often use job advertisements presented during the early stages of recruitment to gather important information about potential employers. Content of these advertisements as well as associated peripheral cues have the potential to influence job seekers' organizational attitudes. Using the elaboration likelihood model as a theoretical framework, the authors proposed that job seekers' previous work and job search experience moderate the extent to which these job advertisement characteristics influence attitudes towards organizations. Results suggest that the content of job advertisements influence the organizational attitudes of experienced job seekers more than their inexperienced counterparts. Additionally, the presence of peripheral cues (i.e. physical attractiveness of those persons shown in recruitment material) appears to have a greater effect on the organizational attractiveness perceptions of job seekers having less work and job search experience versus those having more experience. Implications of the findings regarding organizational recruitment practices are discussed.     

Predicting Voting Behavior of Young Adults: The Importance of Information,Motivation, and Behavioral Skills

The information–motivation–behavioral skills (IMB) model has been shown reliably to predict and change a number of behaviors ( Fisher & Fisher, 2000 ). In light of low voter turnout among young adults, the present research examines the utility of the IMB model to predict voting behavior among this population. The predictive validity of the IMB model for voting behavior was tested, as well as its unique contribution to explaining voting behavior, over and above the theory of reasoned action ( Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980 ) and the theory of planned behavior ( Ajzen, 1985 ). As expected, the variables specified by the IMB model uniquely predicted intention to vote (Study 1) and voting behavior (Study 2), over and above the 2 other models.     

Effects of Testimonial Inconsistencies and Witness Group Identity on Mock‐Juror Judgments1

We examined the interaction of testimonial consistency and witness group identity on mock jurors' judgments of witness effectiveness, probability that the defendant committed the crime, and verdict. In a 3 × 2 (Witness Group Identity × Testimonial Consistency) between‐groups design, 180 mock jurors heard a trial of a person charged with assault. Although both variables affected judgments, group‐identity effects were weak when testimony was characterized by inconsistencies, and they were stronger when testimony was internally consistent but ambiguous. The judgment patterns were consistent with predictions from Chaiken, Liberman, and Eagly's (1989) heuristic‐systematic processing theory, suggesting that heuristic processing would bias systematic processing when the evidence was not decisive.     

Predicting land use voting behavior: expanding our understanding of the influence of attitudes and social norms

Voting to tax oneself in the current economic climate seems improbable. Framed in theories of normative influence and behavior change, this study tests the factors that predict voting for a county‐level millage (i.e., tax) to fund land preservation. Behavioral beliefs that contribute to people's attitudes toward the millage are identified and a model is tested with an expanded normative component. Results indicate that attitudes and subjective norms significantly predict voting intentions, and injunctive norms (i.e., people's perceptions of others' approval of taking an action) add significantly to the model's predictive power. Findings are reinforced by election results in which the millage proposal passed and can contribute to the applied literature by identifying social‐psychological factors that can be targeted with campaign messages.     

The causal relation between job attitudes and performance: a meta-analysis of panel studies

Do job attitudes cause performance, or is it the other way around? To answer this perennial question, the author conducted meta-analytic regression analyses on 16 studies that had repeatedly measured performance and job attitudes (i.e., job satisfaction or organizational commitment). The effect of job attitudes on subsequent performance, with baseline performance controlled, was weak but statistically significant (beta = .06). The effect was slightly stronger for commitment than for satisfaction and depended negatively on time lag. Effects of performance on subsequent job attitudes were elusive (beta = .00 across all studies), which suggests that job attitudes are more likely to influence performance than vice versa.