Can fast and slow intelligence be differentiated?

Responses to items from an intelligence test may be fast or slow. The research issue dealt with in this paper is whether the intelligence involved in fast correct responses differs in nature from the intelligence involved in slow correct responses. There are two questions related to this issue: 1. Are the processes involved different? 2. Are the abilities involved different? An answer to these questions is provided making use of data from a Raven-like matrices test and a verbal analogies test, and the use of a psychometric branching model. The branching model is based on three latent traits: speed, fast accuracy and slow accuracy, and item parameters corresponding to each of these. The pattern of item difficulties is used to draw conclusions on the cognitive processes involved. The results are as follows: 1. The processes involved in fast and slow responses can be differentiated, as can be derived from qualitative differences in the patterns of item difficulty, and fast responses lead to a larger differentiation between items than slow responses do. 2. The abilities underlying fast and slow responses can also be differentiated, and fast responses allow for a better differentiation between the respondents.     

Time-specific Errors in Growth Curve Modeling: Type-1 Error Inflation and a Possible Solution with Mixed-Effects Models

Growth curve modeling (GCM) has been one of the most popular statistical methods to examine participants’ growth trajectories using longitudinal data. In spite of the popularity of GCM, little attention has been paid to the possible influence of time-specific errors, which influence all participants at each timepoint. In this article, we demonstrate that the failure to take into account such time-specific errors in GCM produces considerable inflation of type-1 error rates in statistical tests of fixed effects (e.g., coefficients for the linear and quadratic terms). We propose a GCM that appropriately incorporates time-specific errors using mixed-effects models to address the problem. We also provide an applied example to illustrate that GCM with and without time-specific errors would lead to different substantive conclusions about the true growth trajectories. Comparisons with other models in longitudinal data analysis and potential issues of model misspecification are discussed.     

A Unified Framework for the Comparison of Treatments with Ordinal Responses

Different latent variable models have been used to analyze ordinal categorical data which can be conceptualized as manifestations of an unobserved continuous variable. In this paper, we propose a unified framework based on a general latent variable model for the comparison of treatments with ordinal responses. The latent variable model is built upon the location-scale family and is rich enough to include many important existing models for analyzing ordinal categorical variables, including the proportional odds model, the ordered probit-type model, and the proportional hazards model. A flexible estimation procedure is proposed for the identification and estimation of the general latent variable model, which allows for the location and scale parameters to be freely estimated. The framework advances the existing methods by enabling many other popular models for analyzing continuous variables to be used to analyze ordinal categorical data, thus allowing for important statistical inferences such as location and/or dispersion comparisons among treatments to be conveniently drawn. Analysis on real data sets is used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

多维对数正态作答时间模型：对潜在加工速度多维性的探究

在心理与教育测量中, 潜在加工速度反映学生运用潜在能力解决问题的效率。为在多维测验中探究潜在加工速度的多维性并实现参数估计, 本研究提出多维对数正态作答时间模型。实证数据分析及模拟研究结果表明：(1)潜在加工速度具有与潜在能力相匹配的多维结构; (2)新模型可精确估计个体水平的多维潜在加工速度及与作答时间有关的题目参数; (3)冗余指定潜在加工速度具有多维性带来的负面影响低于忽略其多维性所带来的。     

Factor copula models for mixed data

We develop factor copula models to analyse the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric and nonlinear dependence. They can be explained as conditional independence models with latent variables that do not necessarily have an additive latent structure. We focus on important issues of interest to the social data analyst, such as model selection and goodness of fit. Our general methodology is demonstrated with an extensive simulation study and illustrated by reanalysing three mixed response data sets. Our studies suggest that there can be a substantial improvement over the standard factor model for mixed data and make the argument for moving to factor copula models.     

Controversy and consensus regarding the use of cognitive ability testing in organizations

Seven hundred three members of the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology indicated agreement or disagreement with 49 propositions regarding cognitive ability tests in organizations. There was consensus that cognitive ability tests are valid and fair, that they provide good but incomplete measures, that different abilities are necessary for different jobs, and that diversity is valuable. Items dealing with the unique status of cognitive ability were most likely to generate polarized opinions. A 2-factor model, classifying items as those reflecting societal concerns over the consequences of ability testing and those reflecting an emphasis on the unique status of "g," fit the data well, and these factors proved especially important for predicting responses to the more controversial items.     

Theoretical and empirical review of multinomial process tree modeling

We review a current and popular class of cognitive models calledmultinomial processing tree (MPT) models. MPT models are simple, substantively motivated statistical models that can be applied to categorical data. They are useful as data-analysis tools for measuring underlying or latent cognitive capacities and as simple models for representing and testing competing psychological theories. We formally describe the cognitive structure and parametric properties of the class of MPT models and provide an inferential statistical analysis for the entire class. Following this, we provide a comprehensive review of over 80 applications of MPT models to a variety of substantive areas in cognitive psychology, including various types of human memory, visual and auditory perception, and logical reasoning. We then address a number of theoretical issues relevant to the creation and evaluation of MPT models, including model development, model validity, discrete-state assumptions, statistical issues, and the relation between MPT models and other mathematical models. In the conclusion, we consider the current role of MPT models in psychological research and possible future directions.     

Latent variable models for partially ordered responses and trajectory analysis of anger‐related feelings

A general framework is presented for the analysis of partially ordered set (poset) data. The work is motivated by the need to analyse poset data such as multi‐componential responses in psychological measurement and partially accomplished cognitive tasks in educational measurement. It is shown how the generalized loglinear model can be used to represent poset data that form a lattice and how latent‐variable models can be constructed by further specifying the canonical parameters of the loglinear representation. The approach generalizes a class of latent‐variable models for completely ordered data. We apply the methods to analyse data on the frequency and intensity of anger‐related feelings. Furthermore, we propose a trajectory analysis to gain insight into the response function of partially ordered emotional states.     

The development of adaptive conformity in young children: effects of uncertainty and consensus

Human culture relies on extensive use of social transmission, which must be integrated with independently acquired (i.e. asocial) information for effective decision‐making. Formal evolutionary theory predicts that natural selection should favor adaptive learning strategies, including a bias to copy when uncertain, and a bias to disproportionately copy the majority (known as ‘conformist transmission’). Although the function and causation of these evolved strategies has been comparatively well studied, little is known of their development. We experimentally investigated the development of the bias to copy‐when‐uncertain and conformist transmission in children from the ages of 3 to 7, testing predictions derived from theoretical models. Children first attempted to solve a binary‐choice quantity discrimination task themselves using asocial information, but were then given the decisions of informants, and an opportunity to revise their answer. We investigated whether children's revised judgments were adaptively contingent on (i) the difficulty of the trial and (ii) the degree of consensus amongst informants. As predicted, older but not younger children copied others more on more difficult trials than on easier trials, even though older children also showed a tendency to stick with their initial, asocial decision. We also found that older children, like adults, were disproportionately receptive to non‐total majorities (i.e. were conformist) whereas younger children were receptive only to total (i.e. unanimous) majorities. We conclude that, whilst the mechanism for incorporating social information into decision‐making is initially very blunt, across the course of early childhood it converges on the adaptive learning mechanisms observed in adults and predicted by cultural evolutionary theory. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at http://youtu.be/Qb6JINGYqVk     

Posterior probabilities for a consensus ordering

In the situation where subjects independently rank order a fixed set of items, the idea of a consensus ordering of the items is defined and employed as a parameter in a class of probability models for rankings. In the context of such models, which generalize those of Mallows, posterior probabilities may be easily formed about the population consensus ordering. An example of rankings obtained by the Graduate Record Examination Board is presented to demonstrate the adequacy of these generalized Mallows' models for describing actual data sets of rankings and to illustrate convenient summaries of the posterior probabilities for the consensus ordering.The authors thank Leann Birch for permission to refer to her experiment on cracker preferences, and the Graduate Record Examination Board for permission to use primary data from the Pike Report in our example. We also thank the referees for helpful comments.     

Toward a Model-Based Approach to the Clinical Assessment of Personality Psychopathology

Recent years have witnessed tremendous growth in the scope and sophistication of statistical methods available to explore the latent structure of psychopathology, involving continuous, discrete, and hybrid latent variables. The availability of such methods has fostered optimism that they can facilitate movement from classification primarily crafted through expert consensus to classification derived from empirically based models of psychopathological variation. The explication of diagnostic constructs with empirically supported structures can then facilitate the development of assessment tools that appropriately characterize these constructs. Our goal in this article is to illustrate how new statistical methods can inform conceptualization of personality psychopathology and therefore its assessment. We use magical thinking as an example, because both theory and earlier empirical work suggested the possibility of discrete aspects to the latent structure of personality psychopathology, particularly forms of psychopathology involving distortions of reality testing, yet other data suggest that personality psychopathology is generally continuous in nature. We directly compared the fit of a variety of latent variable models to magical thinking data from a sample enriched with clinically significant variation in psychotic symptomatology for explanatory purposes. Findings generally suggested a continuous latent variable model best represented magical thinking, but results varied somewhat depending on different indexes of model fit. We discuss the implications of the findings for classification and applied personality assessment. We also highlight some limitations of this type of approach that are illustrated by these data, including the importance of substantive interpretation, in addition to use of model fit indexes, when evaluating competing structural models.     

A Probabilistic Latent Class Model for Assessing Inter-Judge Reliability

Increasingly behavioral researchers are soliciting cognitive responses in addition to standard attitudinal measures when attempting to assess the effects of persuasive communications. The coding of the elicited cognitive responses generally involves some sort of categorization, typically undertaken by independent judges, and the quality of the data is, to a large degree, evaluated in terms of some reliability coefficient which reflects the extent to which the independent judges agreed. The purpose of this paper is to present and illustrate a probabilistic model for assessing inter-judge reliability. The proposed probabilistic model allows one to (a) use formal test statistics to evaluate the extent and character of inter-judge reliability, (b) estimate the assignment error rates and their standard errors, and (c) test for simultaneous agreement for more than two judges. The probabilistic model is operationalized in terms of restricted latent class models.     

Measurement of psychological disorders using cognitive diagnosis models

Cognitive diagnosis models are constrained (multiple classification) latent class models that characterize the relationship of questionnaire responses to a set of dichotomous latent variables. Having emanated from educational measurement, several aspects of such models seem well suited to use in psychological assessment and diagnosis. This article presents the development of a new cognitive diagnosis model for use in psychological assessment--the DINO (deterministic input; noisy "or" gate) model--which, as an illustrative example, is applied to evaluate and diagnose pathological gamblers. As part of this example, a demonstration of the estimates obtained by cognitive diagnosis models is provided. Such estimates include the probability an individual meets each of a set of dichotomous Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (text revision [DSM-IV-TR]; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) criteria, resulting in an estimate of the probability an individual meets the DSM-IV-TR definition for being a pathological gambler. Furthermore, a demonstration of how the hypothesized underlying factors contributing to pathological gambling can be measured with the DINO model is presented, through use of a covariance structure model for the tetrachoric correlation matrix of the dichotomous latent variables representing DSM-IV-TR criteria.     

The latent variable approach as applied to transitive reasoning

We discuss the limitations of hypothesis testing using (quasi-) experiments in the study of cognitive development and suggest latent variable modeling as a viable alternative to experimentation. Latent variable models allow testing a theory as a whole, incorporating individual differences with respect to developmental processes or abilities in the model. Experiments, in contrast, aim at testing hypotheses that refer to a specific part of a theory; also they ignore individual differences or model the individual differences using age group as a proxy for developmental stage. Drawing on a sample of 409 5–13-year olds, we demonstrate the advantages of latent variable models in the area of transitive reasoning. A comparison of three models showed that the latent variable model that represented fuzzy trace theory had a better fit than the models representing Piaget's theory or linear ordering theory.     

A Bayesian Semiparametric Item Response Model with Dirichlet Process Priors

In Item Response Theory (IRT), item characteristic curves (ICCs) are illustrated through logistic models or normal ogive models, and the probability that examinees give the correct answer is usually a monotonically increasing function of their ability parameters. However, since only limited patterns of shapes can be obtained from logistic models or normal ogive models, there is a possibility that the model applied does not fit the data. As a result, the existing method can be rejected because it cannot deal with various item response patterns. To overcome these problems, we propose a new semiparametric IRT model using a Dirichlet process mixture logistic distribution. Our method does not rely on assumptions but only requires that the ICCs be a monotonically nondecreasing function; that is, our method can deal with more types of item response patterns than the existing methods, such as the one-parameter normal ogive models or the two- or three-parameter logistic models.     

多项式加工树模型次序约束的量化分析及其应用

多项式加工树（MPT）模型是一种认知测量模型,能够对潜在认知过程进行测量和检验。已有研究探讨了二链MPT模型次序约束的重新参数化问题,本研究探讨了MPT模型次序约束的量化分析方法并从二链推广到多链,同时归纳出MPT模型参数向量内和参数向量间两参数次序约束量化分析的结论。数据分析结果表明该方法不仅在MPT模型框架下验证了潜在参数次序关系,而且给出了约束的量化指标,为潜在认知测量提供更有意义的解释。     

Latent change models of adult cognition: are changes in processing speed and working memory associated with changes in episodic memory?

The authors used 6-year longitudinal data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study (VLS) to investigate individual differences in amount of episodic memory change. Latent change models revealed reliable individual differences in cognitive change. Changes in episodic memory were significantly correlated with changes in other cognitive variables, including speed and working memory. A structural equation model for the latent change scores showed that changes in speed and working memory predicted changes in episodic memory, as expected by processing resource theory. However, these effects were best modeled as being mediated by changes in induction and fact retrieval. Dissociations were detected between cross-sectional ability correlations and longitudinal changes. Shuffling the tasks used to define the Working Memory latent variable altered patterns of change correlations.     

An accumulator model for responses and response times in tests based on the proportional hazards model

Latent trait models for responses and response times in tests often lack a substantial interpretation in terms of a cognitive process model. This is a drawback because process models are helpful in clarifying the meaning of the latent traits. In the present paper, a new model for responses and response times in tests is presented. The model is based on the proportional hazards model for competing risks. Two processes are assumed, one reflecting the increase in knowledge and the second the tendency to discontinue. The processes can be characterized by two proportional hazards models whose baseline hazard functions correspond to the temporary increase in knowledge and discouragement. The model can be calibrated with marginal maximum likelihood estimation and an application of the ECM algorithm. Two tests of model fit are proposed. The amenability of the proposed approaches to model calibration and model evaluation is demonstrated in a simulation study. Finally, the model is used for the analysis of two empirical data sets.