《条件推理的条件概率模型》的新进展

推理心理学中的任何重要的理论模型在提出后都有一个不断修订和完善的发展过程。Oaksford等为了解释他们在"Wason四卡片选择任务"的实验研究结果,于1994年提出了"最佳数据选择模型";2000年将这一模型扩展为"条件推理的条件概率模型"用于解释人类进行条件推理的心理加工机制;2007年又将这一模型做了新的修订。本文拟对这一模型新进展的内涵介绍给我国对推理心理学研究领域有兴趣的研究者。     

几种策略选择模型的发展轨迹与比较

策略选择作为儿童认知发展的重要方面,日益受到人们的关注.20世纪70年代后,一些研究者相继构建出几种策略选择的理论模型,以说明儿童策略选择的过程及其机制.文章根据策略模型发展的历程,对元认知模型、联结分布模型、适应性策略选择模型和策略选择与发现模型进行了概述与比较,以摸清策略模型发展的轨迹与特点,由此进一步明确策略模型研究发展的方向.     

结构方程模型应用中模型选择的原理和方法

随着结构方程模型在心理学研究中的应用,针对研究问题建构理论模型成为研究者们所重视的问题。该文探讨了心理学研究中模型选择的一般原则和基本方法,希望对广大研究者有所帮助。     

察觉利他者机制——进化心理学对利他问题的一个新视角

利他性行为和利他情境是人们社会生活中的重要组成部分,今年来,随着进化心理学作为一种崭新研究取向的迅速发展,一些研究者对这一问题取得了一些新的假设和视角。其中,“察觉利他者机制”是进化心理学家提出的一种针对个体识别利他者和利他情境能力的一种假设。目前,对这一机制是否存在以及其心理过程仍存在争论。     

企业管理者职业选择的影响因素研究

本研究对中国企业管理者的职业选择及其影响因素进行了考察.结果发现,社会认知职业模型基本适用于该群体:其结果预期对职业兴趣有显著影响;其管理自我效能及结果预期对职业承诺有显著影响;其社会、经济支持对职业承诺的影响不显著,但对自我职业生涯管理有显著影响;其管理自我效能及自我职业生涯管理对工作绩效有显著影响;但仍有某些变量间的路径关系未得到验证.     

抽象材料选择任务的表象表征视角

为了探讨在选择任务中表象表征存在的可能性以及抽象材料选择任务困难的原因,该研究设定了材料的内容、规则以及证明规则的要求均完全相同,只是在呈现方式上形象性不同的两种抽象选择任务;然后把两种不同的选择任务分别对数量大致相当的大学生进行了测试。结果发现,不采用类似卡片这种形象性很强的材料呈现方式显著的提高了人们在抽象选择任务中的正确率。实验结果支持了选择任务中表象表征的存在及其为选择任务困难原因之一的观点。     

跨期选择单维占优模型的过程检验

跨期选择需要决策者在眼前与未来的损益之间做出权衡与取舍。主流跨期选择理论认为, 跨期选择是把未来价值折扣到现在, 根据折扣后的价值进行选择的过程; 而单维占优模型则认为决策者把“结果”维度上的差异和“延迟”维度上的差异进行比较(维度间差异比较), 然后根据差异更大的维度(即占优势的维度)进行决策。跨期选择众理论之争无果的原因之一或是研究者未能找到揭示其心理过程的令人信服的证据。为此, 本研究采用过程检验而非结果拟合的方法, 首创了“直观模拟天平”任务, 对维度间差异比较的大小进行测量, 从而为验证单维占优模型提供了支持性的证据。实验1A证明了维度间差异大小中介了选择结果, 被试认为“结果”维度上的差异相对于“延迟”维度上的差异越大, 越倾向于选择延迟长、结果大的选项; 反之, 被试认为“延迟”维度上的差异相对于“结果”维度上的差异越大, 越倾向于选择延迟短、结果小的选项。实验1B证明了维度间差异比较是在选择时实时(而不是在选择后)进行的。实验1C通过调整实验程序消减了共同方法偏差对结果的影响。实验2进一步证明维度间差异比较可以解释众多的跨期选择异象。通过4个实验, 本研究揭示了维度间差异比较构成了跨期选择的重要(尽管可能不是唯一)决策过程, 为支持单维占优模型提供了重要的过程验证证据。     

多时点结果跨期选择的决策效应及其心理机制

多时点结果跨期选择涉及两个及两个以上多个时点结果的权衡, 正日益成为跨期选择的研究重点。现有研究主要从两时点结果和序列结果两方面深入探讨了多时点结果跨期选择中的诸多决策效应, 包括：隐藏的零效应、象征效应、额外金额效应、前端金额效应以及序列效应, 并运用序列模型和权衡模型对上述决策效应进行阐释。未来还应深入探索同时涉及损益结果混合的多时点结果跨期选择, 运用决策过程追踪技术揭示决策效应的过程机制。     

群体选择理论与道德的普遍性

从道德普遍性的角度看,群体选择进化理论构建的道德模型是不成功的。这种不成功体现在如下两方面:其一,可能相容于群体选择理论的两种模型——强道德实在论模型和理性逻辑推扩自然情感的模型——均不能解释道德如何具有普遍性的问题;其二,由新达尔文主义者弗兰斯.德.沃尔提出的、可能相容于群体选择理论的解释道德"应该"的模式不能充分说明道德为什么是普遍的。     

社会判断的选择通达理论

比较是社会判断的核心过程。近期,Mussweile提出了选择通达理论模型,该模型区分了比较中两个基本的假设过程,整合了比较中的多种结果,为人们更好地理解判断的本质提供了一个新视角。本文主要介绍了选择通达的过程、结果及其存在的普遍性,并讨论了参照点运用和选择通达机制之间的区别和联系。     

Selection and self: Selection as a social process

Recent developments in theory and research in social psychology make possible an integrated account of selection construed as a social process. This account draws upon social psychological theories of the functions of the self, relationship development, social identity, self-categorization, and emotion. First, an account of the selection process in these theoretical terms is presented, together with some theoretical propositions. Next, research in one area, applicants' reactions to selection processes, which is consistent with this account is reviewed. Finally, implications for practice are drawn. It is argued that there are strategic implications both for organizations and for the psychology profession.     

认知诊断CAT选题策略及初始题选取方法

计算机化认知诊断自适应测验(CD_CAT)是将认知诊断的基本理论、方法与计算机化自适应测验相结合的产物,是现代测量学发展的新领域。对于计算机化自适应测验（CAT）中的选题策略研究一直是国内外学者关注的问题,然而对于计算机化认知诊断自适应测验的选题策略研究却很少报导,而对于计算机化认知诊断自适应测验的初始题选取方法的研究却更少。本研究采用计算机模拟程序对HO-DINA模型下CD_CAT的五种选题策略及二种初始题选取方法进行研究。研究表明：不同初始题选取方法及选题策略均会影响对被试诊断的准确性及能力估计的精度;总体来看,对于二种初始题选取方法,本研究提出的“T阵法”优于传统的随机法;对于五种选题策略,SL_GDI法最优;初始题选取方法及选题策略的搭配中,“T阵法”和SL_GDI法的搭配最佳。     

自然选择质疑

当代对达尔文进化论的争论几乎是全方位的。尽管当今达尔文主义者的立场和论调与原先的达尔文的进化论已有很大出入，比如说，现代综合进化论对自然选择的创造性作用的突出强调，间断平衡论对达尔文随机渐变理论的重新解释等等，但现代达尔文主义者对作为达尔文进化论核心的自然选择理论一般都是坚持的。本文试图立足于现代自然科学发展的前沿，对这一理论做出再反思。     

Preconception Gender Selection

Safe and effective methtods of preconception gender selection through flow cytometric separation of X- and Y-bearing sperm could greatly increase the use of gender selection by couples contemplating reproduction. Such a development raises ethical, legal, and social issues about the impact of such practices on offspring, on sex ratio imbalances, and on sexism and the status of women. This paper analyzes the competing interests in preconception gender selection, and concludes that its use to increase gender variety in a family, and possibly for selecting the gender of firstborn, might in many instances be ethically acceptable.     

The Selection of Multiattribute Decision Making Methods for Scholarship Student Selection

Selecting scholarship students from a number of competing candidates is a complex decision making process, in which multiple selection criteria have to be considered simultaneously. Multiattribute decision making (MADM) has proven to be an effective approach for ranking or selecting one or more alternatives from a finite number of alternatives with respect to multiple, usually conflicting criteria. This paper formulates the scholarship student selection process as an MADM problem, and presents suitable compensatory methods for solving the problem. A new empirical validity procedure is developed to deal with the inconsistent ranking problem caused by different MADM methods. The procedure aims at selecting a ranking outcome which has a minimum expected value loss, when true attribute weights are not known. An empirical study of a scholarship student selection problem in an Australian university is conducted to illustrate how the selection procedure works.     

Selection and Predictive Success

By means of a citation analysis I aim to determine which scholarly journals are most important in the sub-field of philosophy of science. My analysis shows that the six most important journals in the sub-field are Philosophy of Science, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Journal of Philosophy, Synthese, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, and Erkenntnis. Given the data presented in this study, there is little evidence that there is such a field as the history and philosophy of science (HPS). Rather, philosophy of science is most properly conceived of as a sub-field of philosophy.     

Hope in Personnel Selection

This study examined the potential role of hope as a personality trait in performance in personnel selection batteries. We hypothesized that hope would be associated with overall success in the selection process, mediated by coping. One hundred twenty job applicants who went through a full day of individual psychological assessment also filled out measures of hope and coping style. Structural equation modeling analysis provided support for a partial mediation model, with problem‐solving‐oriented coping mediating the association between hope and the psychologists’ general recommendation based on various psychological measures (though hope and coping were not included in the psychologists’ considerations). The model remained significant after controlling for general mental ability, personality, interview, and group simulation measures used in the assessment. The potential implications and limitations of the study are discussed in light of existing research on hope and performance.     

Selection history-driven signal suppression

ABSTRACT

The control of attention is influenced by current goals, physical salience, and selection history. Under certain conditions, physically salient stimuli can be strategically suppressed below baseline levels, facilitating visual search for a target. It is unclear whether such signal suppression is a broad mechanism of selective information processing that extends to other sources of attentional priority evoked by task-irrelevant stimuli, or whether it is particular to physically salient perceptual signals. Using eye movements, in the present study we highlight a case where a former-target-colour distractor facilitates search for a target on a large percentage of trials. Our findings provide evidence that the principle of signal suppression extends to other sources of attentional priority beyond physical salience, and that selection history can be leveraged to strategically guide attention away from a stimulus.