Statistical modelling in the investigation of stranger rape

A sample of stranger rape offences (n = 271) registered in the Dutch Violence Crime Linkage Analysis System database in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2007 was studied with the objective of developing statistical models, which give an indication of the probability of basic offender characteristics. Observable crime characteristics concerning the modus operandi, interaction between the offender and the victim, violence, precautionary measures, and sexual behaviours were selected in the dataset. Offender characteristics were selected based on their usefulness for the police organisation in narrowing the scope of a criminal investigation. Spatial behaviour, criminal history, and living situation of the offender were selected. From the predictive models, four out of five achieved a correct rate of over 70%, and all models predicted better than the best guess method. The proposed models for distance and prior convictions for violence seem particularly promising. Both these models show an improvement of correctly predicted offender characteristics of more than 20 percentile points compared with that which could have been estimated based on the average in the total sample. The predictive value of the models needs to be tested further with ‘new offences’, which were not used to construct the model. In general, the current study supports the finding that crime characteristics can be used to get an indication of the probability of certain offender characteristics. Nevertheless, for an understanding of the relationship between the crime characteristics and offender characteristics, a further development of a theoretical framework is urgently necessary. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating the nature of expressiveness in stranger,acquaintance and intrafamilial homicides

This study explores the role of the victim–offender relationship in the dynamics of homicide, by examining the crime scene behaviour of 25 intrafamilial, 30 acquaintance and 27 stranger homicide offenders (n = 82). Six crime scene variables were examined: ‘Weapon from the scene’, ‘Excessive wounding’, ‘Facial trauma’, ‘Multiple wounds to a single area’, ‘Post‐mortem activity’ and ‘Manual violence’. The first objective was to identify whether these variables could be combined to form a partially ordered scale of expressiveness. The second was to examine whether the nature of this expressive crime scene varied according to the victim and offender relationship. It was hypothesised that the intrafamilial homicides would be characterised by a more expressive crime scene. This was examined by Partial Order Scalogram Analysis which supported the hypothesised link between the level of expressed emotion evident in the crime scene and the nature of the victim–offender relationship. Further analysis on the individual variables revealed that the best single predictor of the relationship between victim and offender was the presence of multiple wounding. These findings are discussed both as contributing to a theoretical understanding of the emotional salience of crime scene actions when killing a family member, and in practical terms in relation to the significance of these variables for both police investigations and clinical interventions with homicide perpetrators. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

College Student Perceptions of Criminal Justice System Responses to Stalking

In the current study, a survey was administered to 513 U.S. undergraduate college students from a large east coast university to examine whether extra-legal factors influenced their personal judgments of criminal justice system responsiveness to stalking. MANOVA results indicated that students believed police and prosecutors would not treat analogous cases similarly (this bias was not apparent with judges). College students perceived that prior relationship and target/offender gender would impact arrest decisions, and that target/offender gender would also impact police investigations and the filing of criminal charges. Potential explanations and practical implications of these findings are discussed, as well as directions for future research.     

Victim Gender,Number of Perpetrators,and Interpersonal Interaction in Stranger Rape: An Analysis of Direct and Moderator Effects

This study examined the direct and moderator effects of number of perpetrators and gender of victim on interpersonal behaviour in stranger rape. Crime scene behaviours representative of hostility, involvement, control, and offender penetration in rape were examined for 496 UK, police‐recorded cases of stranger rape. Cases were grouped according to victim gender (male or female) and number of perpetrators (lone or multiple). This resulted in four groups (lone female, lone male, multiple female, and multiple male) with 124 cases in each. Binary logistic regression and one‐way analysis of variance were used to investigate the relationships between the two predictor variables and 11 criterion variables. Significant direct effects of number of perpetrators were found whereby multiple perpetrator offences were more likely to involve violence and less likely to involve involvement interactions than lone perpetrator offences. Significant direct effects of victim gender were also found whereby male victims were more likely than female victims to experience hostile interactions and be threatened with a weapon and were less likely to experience offender penetration and involvement interactions. Significant crossover interactions were also found for four hostility variables. The utility of the findings are discussed in relation to crime prevention, victim support, and offender intervention. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of prior offender/victim relationship on offender stalking behavior

The present study examined the influence of prior offender/victim relationship on offender stalking behavior. The actions that were present within the stalking offences were recorded using content analysis of victim and witness statements, and all other relevant material within the police files of 50 stalking cases. The sample was analyzed using a non‐metric multidimensional scaling procedure known as Smallest Space Analysis. The results suggested that when a prior sexual relationship existed between the offender and the victim the offender was more likely to engage in a majority of controlling style actions. However, an offender who did not have a prior sexual relationship with the victim was more likely to engage in a majority of infatuation style actions. Therefore, the study lends support to the influence of prior relationship on the actions that offenders engage in over the stalking period. Implications of the study and future research ideas are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crime scene actions and offender characteristics in a sample of Finnish stranger rapes

The crime scene actions employed by offenders in stranger rapes were analysed in relation to offender characteristics. Data were drawn from an official police database and consisted of stranger rapes occurring in Finland between 1992 and 2001 (n = 100). The structure of dichotomous variables derived through a content analysis of crime scene actions and offender characteristics were analysed with non‐metric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The first analysis revealed three separate action themes, with thematic emphases on Hostility, Involvement or Theft. The MDS‐solution for offender characteristics suggested four themes: Conventional; Psychiatric/Elderly; Criminal/Violent; and Criminal/Property. Each case was assigned to one of the themes or as a hybrid in order to analyse the associations between action themes and characteristics. The only significant association was found between the action theme, Theft and characteristics theme Criminal/Property. The results are discussed in relation to previous research. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geographical offender profiling: Dragnet's applicability on a Brazilian sample

Even though geographical offender profiling is already widely used and researched in countries such as England, Canada, and United States, it is still severely overlooked in Brazil, as there are no researches on the subject using a Brazilian sample. Therefore, the present paper aims to start filling this gap by analysing the applicability of the geographical offender profiling and Dragnet on a sample of Brazilian serial killers. In order to achieve this objective, the authors collected data through police records on 15 serial killers that were active between June 2009 and June 2015, in the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba, Brazil. As a result, the circle hypothesis was confirmed, considering that 66.7% of the sample fell into the marauder category. Interestingly, the Dragnet's result accurately informed the area that contained the offender's base in the same cases in which the offender acted according to the marauder model. Also, other important correlations were found such as the influence of age, intelligence, resourcefulness, and method of approach on the distance travelled to commit a murder. Those results show that the geographical offender profiling can be effectively applied in Brazil and thus is a valid investigative tool to aid police officers in serial crimes investigations.     

Attributions as a Function of Expertise: The Case of the Police Decision to Arrest1

Using a longitudinal design, this study tested Carroll and Payne's (1977) attributional model on a cohort of 387 police recruits at recruitment% at the completion of academy training. and after I year of police experience. Contrary to expectations, the relationship between causal attributions and other judgments about offenders predicted by the model did not weaken with increasing police experience. However, there was an increase in the extent to which causal attributions also affected judgments about offenders which were not predicted by the model, and this was interpreted as indicating an increase in halo error. It was argued that halo error is indicative of rudimentary schemata which may precede the development of more complex offender typologies.     

Acquaintances,Lovers, and Friends: Rape Within Relationships1

The research examines offender behavior in 98 cases of male‐female acquaintance rape reported to the police in the United Kingdom. Each rape is defined according to the predominant style of offender behavior: intimacy, aggression, or criminality. Variations in the style of rape behavior are examined as a function of the prior victim‐offender relationship. The level of relationship intimacy between the victim and offender is defined empirically according to 4 variables: time acquainted, degree of familiarity, previous sexual relationship, and previous cohabitation. The results indicate that criminality style behavior is very infrequent in acquaintance rape. At low levels of relationship intimacy, the rape is more likely to be characterized by intimacy, rather than aggression style behaviors. The implications are discussed.     

Elaborating the police perspective: The role of perceptions and experience in the explanation of crowd conflict

Classical theories of crowd behaviour view crowd conflict as deriving from the pathology of the crowd itself. Recent developments in crowd psychology as the elaborated social identity model (ESIM) conceptualize crowd behaviour as a dynamic intergroup process between demonstrators and police. The present study assessed exposure to crowd conflict, adherence to classical views of crowd behaviour, public order policing methods and attributions of responsibility for crowd conflict among 352 Italian police officers. Results showed that exposure to crowd conflict was related to adherence to classical views of crowd, which, in turn, was related to ‘bad practices’ of public order policing and to system‐justificatory attributions. Overall, these results offer support and extend the police perspective within the ESIM model. Practical implications for public order policing strategies and training are also discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Serum testosterone,cortisol, glucose,and ethanol in males arrested for spouse abuse

Concentrations of ethanol, testosterone, cortisol, and glucose were determined in serum obtained from 16 males taken into police custody after incidents of spouse abuse. The mean blood ethanol level at the time of arrest was 33.3 ± 2.6 mM. Serum testosterone levels were significantly lower and cortisol levels higher at the time of police intervention (within 1 hour of the incident) compared to control data collected later from the subjects when sober. Offenders did not differ from a group of nonviolent pub patrons at similar blood ethanol levels (35.9 ± 4.5 mM) with respect to serum testosterone, cortisol, or glucose, but their sober state cortisol and glucose concentrations were significantly higher compared to a control group of nonalcoholic men. Intoxication or acute hormonal changes were thus not specifically associated with violent behaviour. Provocative cues, however, may have been more frequent in the offender families, as Straus Conflict Tactics data showed that offenders and victims resorted to verbal aggression significantly more often than control families. The significantly elevated cortisol and glucose concentrations in offenders when sober compared to nonviolent controls could be viewed as direct effects of life stress, or as indirect effects of stress mediated by learned escape drinking. Excessive drinking as well as spouse abuse could be maladaptive coping strategies that principally serve to maintain the status quo, physiologically as well as psychologically. © 1992 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Reactions to Supporters and Opponents of Uranium Mining in Relation to Status,Attitude Similarity,and Right‐Wing Authoritarianism1

This research investigated participants' responses to a scenario involving either a high‐status elected senator or a public citizen either supporting or opposing uranium mining near a heritage‐listed national park in Australia, followed by the subsequent arrest and punishment of the stimulus person for failing to obey a police order. Results show that low authoritarians perceived the low‐status offender relative to the high‐status offender as less responsible for the offense, and they reported less positive affect about the penalty for the low‐status offender. Participants showed more leniency toward offenders whose position on uranium mining was congruent with participants' own attitudes. Relationships between right‐wing authoritarianism, own attitudes toward uranium mining, and participants' reactions to the offense were associated with different but somewhat overlapping sets of value priorities.     

Transforming or restraining rumination: The impact of compassionate reappraisal versus emotion suppression on empathy,forgiveness, and affective psychophysiology

We tested the effects of practicing compassionate reappraisal vs. emotional suppression as direct coping responses to victims’ ruminations about a past interpersonal offense. Participants (32 females, 32 males) were randomly assigned to learn one coping strategy which immediately followed three of six offense rumination trials (counterbalanced). For both strategy types, coping (vs. offense ruminating) reduced ratings of negative emotion, decreased the use of negative emotion language, and reduced tension at the brow muscle (corrugator EMG). Only compassionate reappraisal coping (vs. offense rumination) immediately prompted greater empathy and emotional forgiveness toward the offender. Empathy ratings for the first coping trial mediated the relationship between strategy type and empathy ratings for the final rumination trial. Compassionate reappraisal strategy participants increased their empathy toward the offender while ruminating at the end of the study. Compassionate reappraisal participants (vs. emotional suppression) described coping (vs. rumination) with more positive language, and also had calmer cardiac pre-ejection period responses.     

The influence of victim intoxication and victim attire on police responses to sexual assault

Limited research exists on the impact of contextual factors such as victim intoxication and victim attire on police processing of a case of sexual assault. The effects of these variables were examined in a simulated sexual assault case. Participants were 125 detectives from the New South Wales Police Department. Officers read controverted witness statements and viewed photographs pertaining to an investigation of a report of date rape. Contrary to findings in earlier studies, complainant intoxication, ‘provocative’ dress, and gender of the officer had no influence on the likelihood of charging the alleged offender. Factors predictive of pressing charges were the perceived credibility of the complainant and culpability of the alleged offender. Credibility and guilt judgements were themselves influenced by the level of rape myth acceptance endorsed by the officers. Rape myth acceptance also exerted a number of other effects on case evaluations. Implications for future studies and education and training programmes for police on sexual assault were discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Role of Socioeconomic Status in Interactions with Police Among a National Sample of Women Experiencing Intimate Partner Violence

Using a national dataset of 820 women who had called the police for an incident of intimate partner violence, this study explored the relationship between several components of socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), race, and the nature of interactions with police. Over and above the effects of control variables (the presence of an advocate on the scene, the severity of violence in the relationship, and prior calls to police), victims with higher education reported less positive interactions, less control during the interactions, and lower effectiveness of police. Race did not moderate these relationships, and the other components of socioeconomic status were not significantly related to any of the outcomes. Exploratory tests of mediation found that the relationship between education and the quality of interactions with police was explained by the fact that more educated victims felt they had less control in these incidents and were less likely to see the offender arrested. Results also provide evidence for the positive impact of advocates on interactions with police. Implications for research and policy are discussed.     

Drug‐assisted rape and sexual assault: definitional,conceptual and methodological developments

This paper reviews the limited literature on drug‐assisted rape (DAR) and develops definitions and constructs. A novel data gathering method, the multiple sorting task, was adopted to explore lay understanding of DAR. Participants (N = 8) were drawn from the general public. Each of the 21 stimulus cards used had the name of one sexual or romantic encounter printed on it. Participants completed one fixed sort in terms of the motivation of the male involved in the encounter. Data were analysed by means of multiple scalogram analysis (MSA). Findings show that the key factors for distinguishing sexual and romantic encounters are whether the behaviour is: consensual, contracted or forced; planned or impulsive; motivated primarily by the desire for sex or for a relationship. When motivation of the offender is considered, drug‐assisted rape and sexual assault is distinguishable from other consensual sexual behaviours but not from other types of rape. Findings are discussed in terms of the limitations of the present study, the need for further research and practical applications for assisting police enquiries. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Classifying homicide offenders and predicting their characteristics from crime scene behavior

A theoretical distinction between instrumental and expressive aggression was used in analyzing offender characteristics and their associations with crime scene actions in Finnish homicides. Twenty-one variables reflecting the offenders' criminal activity, previous relationships with intimates and victims, and general social and psychological adjustment were derived from files of single-offender/single-victim homicides occurring between 1980 and 1994 (n = 502). Additionally, three variables describing post-offense actions and police interview behavior were included. A multidimensional scaling procedure was used to investigate the interrelationships between the variables. A distinction between expressive and instrumental characteristics was observable in the empirical structure, which was divided into three subthemes of Instrumental, Expressive: Blood, and Expressive: Intimate. Associations between the characteristics with five previously identified subthemes of crime scene actions were computed. In addition, the subthemes of crime scene actions were related to post-offense actions and police interview behavior, with Expressive themes being associated with less denial as well as a greater likelihood of surrendering and confession. The practical usefulness for police investigations and theoretical implications of the results are discussed.     

The Concept of Acquiescence

Suppose a police car gives chase to some violent criminals, putting innocent bystanders at risk. The criminals have not threatened the police in any way; so we would not normally say that the police have been coerced into chasing. Nor are the police merely responding to natural circumstances, so they are not acting under necessity, in the usual sense. The case is different from one in which an ambulance speeds to hospital, putting innocent bystanders at risk, because the reason for the police speeding has to do with the unreasonable behaviour of others. Yet that unreasonable behaviour does not constitute threatening behaviour. How then should we describe what happened?     

The role of offender profiling in classifying rapists: Implications for counselling

The offender profiling process is an investigative technique used to identify the major personality and behavioural characteristics of the offender based upon an analysis of the crime(s) he or she has committed (Douglas & Burgess, 1986). Attempts have been made in both England and America to classify rapists into various subgroups. Instead of definitive groups of offenders a suggestion is made as to the formation of a dimensional typology of rapists. This would allow for the difficulties in defining boundaries for subgroups and accounting for individual differences and heterogeneity of both the rapist and the assault. The various criteria that attempt to distinguish the different types of offender are discussed including behavioural and motivational characteristics of the offender, lay theories of rape and the victim-offender relationship. The implications of the dimensional typology are outlined. There are indications that some factors may contribute to a longer and more complicated recovery process. Macnab (1993) neatly outlines eleven contributory factors: financial stress, various long term stresses, the degree of violence, the use of weapons, the sense of violation, the threat of death, multiple assailants, threats of greater or continuing harm and a later death, medical complications, problems with police, medical and criminal systems and lack of adequate professional and informed support. As well as this, the important issue of self-blame is discussed along with the subsequent problem of post-traumatic stress disorder: the recurring distressing memories, dreams and events and signals that can provoke a further cycle of distress.